Impact of contact tracing on COVID-19 mortality: An impact evaluation using surveillance data from Colombia.
Andres I. Vecino-Ortiz,Juliana Villanueva Congote,Silvana Zapata Bedoya,Zulma M. Cucunubá,Zulma M. Cucunubá +4 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors assess the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact trace strategies to improve infection control, and find that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%.Abstract:
BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control. METHODS: We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed. RESULTS: We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC.read more
Citations
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SARS-CoV-2 prevalence associated to low socioeconomic status and overcrowding in an LMIC megacity: A population-based seroepidemiological survey in Lima, Peru
Mary F Reyes-Vega,M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas,Fany Cárdenas,Kevin S Martel,Andree Valle,Juan Valverde,Margot Vidal-Anzardo,María Elena Falcón,César V. Munayco +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors conducted a multi-stage, population-based serosurvey in Lima, between June 28th and July 9th, 2020 to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru, stratified by age, sex, region, socioeconomic status, overcrowding, and symptoms.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 test, trace and isolate program in Colombia
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon.
Cost-Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate Program in Colombia.
Yenny Fernanda Guzman Ruiz,Andres I. Vecino-Ortiz,Nicolás Guzman-Tordecilla,Rolando Enrique Peñaloza-Quintero,Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño,Maylen Liseth Rojas-Botero,Fernando Gómez,Sean D. Sullivan,Antonio J. Trujillo +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon, from both the health system and the societal perspective.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review
TL;DR: In this article , a bibliometric review of the literature in the area of COVID-19 transmission dynamics is presented, which identifies the top authors, top disciplines, research patterns, and hotspots.
Journal ArticleDOI
Strategies for Using Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Reduce Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Mathematical Modelling Study Applied to Zambia
Alvin X. Han,Sarah J Girdwood,Shaukat Khan,Jilian A. Sacks,Amy Toporowski,Naushin Huq,Emma Jane Hannay,Colin A. Russell,Brooke E Nichols +8 more
TL;DR: Testing symptomatic individuals yields greater benefits than any asymptomatic community testing strategy until most symptomatic Individuals who sought testing have been tested, and excess tests to proactively screen for asymPTomatic infections among household members yields the largest additional infections averted.
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TL;DR: Modeling reveals differences in the unfolding COVID-19 epidemics and responses to their control among countries with different income levels and combines data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control.
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