Materials availability expands the opportunity for large-scale photovoltaics deployment.

TLDR: A roadmap emphasizing low-cost alternatives that could become a dominant new approach for photovoltaics research and deployment is developed and it is found that devices performing below 10% power conversion efficiencies deliver the same lifetime energy output as those above 20% when a 3/4 material reduction is achieved.

Abstract: Solar photovoltaics have great promise for a low-carbon future but remain expensive relative to other technologies Greatly increased penetration of photovoltaics into global energy markets requires an expansion in attention from designs of high-performance to those that can deliver significantly lower cost per kilowatt-hour To evaluate a new set of technical and economic performance targets, we examine material extraction costs and supply constraints for 23 promising semiconducting materials Twelve composite materials systems were found to have the capacity to meet or exceed the annual worldwide electricity consumption of 17 000 TWh, of which nine have the potential for a significant cost reduction over crystalline silicon We identify a large material extraction cost (cents/watt) gap between leading thin film materials and a number of unconventional solar cell candidates including FeS2, CuO, and Zn3P2 We find that devices performing below 10% power conversion efficiencies deliver the same lifetime en