Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model.
TLDR
Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations, and extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.Abstract:
We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.read more
Citations
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On the shape and likelihood of oceanic rogue waves
Alvise Benetazzo,Fabrice Ardhuin,Filippo Bergamasco,Luigi Cavaleri,Pedro Veras Guimarães,Pedro Veras Guimarães,Michael Schwendeman,Mauro Sclavo,Jim Thomson,Andrea Torsello +9 more
TL;DR: The rogue wave probability of occurrence is analyzed in the context of ST extreme value distributions, and it is concluded that rogue waves are more likely than previously reported.
Journal ArticleDOI
The sinking of the El Faro: predicting real world rogue waves during Hurricane Joaquin.
TL;DR: High-resolution hindcast of hurricane-generated sea states and wave simulations are combined with novel probabilistic models to quantify the likelihood of rogue wave conditions and show that the largest simulated wave is generated by the constructive interference of elementary spectral components enhanced by bound nonlinearities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extreme and superextreme events in a loss-modulated CO 2 laser: Nonlinear resonance route and precursors
Cristian Bonatto,Antônio Endler +1 more
TL;DR: The probability of success or failure (false alarm) in the prediction of the extreme events, once a precursor is identified in the deterministic time series is computed, and it is shown that this probability depends on the accuracy with which the precursor is identify in the laser intensity time series.
Journal ArticleDOI
Anomalous wave statistics induced by abrupt depth change
TL;DR: In this paper, a normally distributed unidirectional wave-field is observed to become highly skewed and non-Gaussian upon encountering an abrupt change in depth, and it is observed that a normally-distributed wave-Field is observed in experiments to behave like a Gaussian wave.
Journal ArticleDOI
Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors collate, quality control, and analyse the largest dataset of single point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence, and they find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without.
References
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