Quantifying long-term scientific impact.
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A mechanistic model is derived for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern.Abstract:
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.read more
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国际刊物《Scientometrics》文献计量研究
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MonographDOI
Random Graphs and Complex Networks
TL;DR: This chapter explains why many real-world networks are small worlds and have large fluctuations in their degrees, and why Probability theory offers a highly effective way to deal with the complexity of networks, and leads us to consider random graphs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Science of science
Santo Fortunato,Carl T. Bergstrom,Katy Börner,James A. Evans,Dirk Helbing,Staša Milojević,Alexander M. Petersen,Filippo Radicchi,Roberta Sinatra,Roberta Sinatra,Brian Uzzi,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani,Ludo Waltman,Dashun Wang,Albert-László Barabási,Albert-László Barabási,Albert-László Barabási +17 more
TL;DR: The Science of Science (SciSci) as discussed by the authors provides a quantitative understanding of the interactions among scientific agents across diverse geographic and temporal scales, providing insights into the conditions underlying creativity and the genesis of scientific discovery, with the ultimate goal of developing tools and policies that have the potential to accelerate science.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
The Science of Science
Dashun Wang,Lu Liu +1 more
TL;DR: SciSci has revealed choices and trade-offs that scientists face as they advance both their own careers and the scientific horizon, and offers a deep quantitative understanding of the relational structure between scientists, institutions, and ideas, which facilitates the identification of fundamental mechanisms responsible for scientific discovery.
References
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Book
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
TL;DR: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions as discussed by the authors is a seminal work in the history of science and philosophy of science, and it has been widely cited as a major source of inspiration for the present generation of scientists.
Journal ArticleDOI
Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks
TL;DR: A model based on these two ingredients reproduces the observed stationary scale-free distributions, which indicates that the development of large networks is governed by robust self-organizing phenomena that go beyond the particulars of the individual systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
An index to quantify an individual's scientific research output
TL;DR: The index h, defined as the number of papers with citation number ≥h, is proposed as a useful index to characterize the scientific output of a researcher.