Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures
Jarrod R. Welch,Jeffrey R. Vincent,Maximilian Auffhammer,Piedad F. Moya,Achim Dobermann,David Dawe +5 more
TLDR
Data from farmer-managed fields are used to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia and imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades.Abstract:
Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries. The farm-level detail, observed over multiple growing seasons, enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables, control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year, and obtain more precise estimates by including farm- and site-specific economic variables. Temperature and radiation had statistically significant impacts during both the vegetative and ripening phases of the rice plant. Higher minimum temperature reduced yield, whereas higher maximum temperature raised it; radiation impact varied by growth phase. Combined, these effects imply that yield at most sites would have grown more rapidly during the high-yielding season but less rapidly during the low-yielding season if observed temperature and radiation trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred, with temperature trends being more influential. Looking ahead, they imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that, the impact would likely become more negative, because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels. Diurnal temperature variation must be considered when investigating the impacts of climate change on irrigated rice in Asia.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal Article
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Stefano Schiavon,Roberto Zecchin +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
TL;DR: It was found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development
TL;DR: This paper found that warmer temperatures increased the rate of phenological development, however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures, and the major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90% from a normal temperature regime.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production
Jerry L. Hatfield,Kenneth J. Boote,Bruce A. Kimball,Lewis A. Ziska,Roberto C. Izaurralde,Donald R. Ort,Allison M. Thomson,David W. Wolfe +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of temperature, CO 2, and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production are discussed and a review of the impact on agricultural crops is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature
TL;DR: A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes as mentioned in this paper, including agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth.
References
More filters
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Book
Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data
TL;DR: This is the essential companion to Jeffrey Wooldridge's widely-used graduate text Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, 2001).
Journal ArticleDOI
An Analysis of Transformations
George E. P. Box,David Cox +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, Lindley et al. make the less restrictive assumption that such a normal, homoscedastic, linear model is appropriate after some suitable transformation has been applied to the y's.
Journal Article
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Stefano Schiavon,Roberto Zecchin +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
TL;DR: Yields increase with temperature but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful, suggesting limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not.