Journal ArticleDOI
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with eurasian land surface variability
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In this paper, a multivariate EOF combining lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux in December with sea level pressure in January is presented to facilitate the study of stratosphere-troposphere coupling and examine what might influence these interactions.Abstract:
A diagnostic of Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical stratosphere–troposphere interactions is presented to facilitate the study of stratosphere–troposphere coupling and to examine what might influence these interactions. The diagnostic is a multivariate EOF combining lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux in December with sea level pressure in January. This EOF analysis captures a strong linkage between the vertical component of lower-stratospheric wave activity over Eurasia and the subsequent development of hemisphere-wide surface circulation anomalies, which are strongly related to the Arctic Oscillation. Wintertime stratosphere–troposphere events picked out by this diagnostic often have a precursor in autumn: years with large October snow extent over Eurasia feature strong wintertime upwardpropagating planetary wave pulses, a weaker wintertime polar vortex, and high geopotential heights in the wintertime polar troposphere. This provides further evidence for predictability of wintertime circulation based on autumnal snow extent over Eurasia. These results also raise the question of how the atmosphere will respond to a modified snow cover in a changing climate.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,Javier García-Serrano,Fabian Lienert,Aida Pintó Biescas,Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues +4 more
TL;DR: An overview of the state-of-the-art in global seasonal forecasting can be found in this paper, where the authors discuss fundamental advances to increase forecast quality in the near future.
Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that large-scale cooling trends have existed across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia and that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation
TL;DR: In this paper, the response of the Arctic atmosphere to low and high sea ice concentration phases based on European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric data and Hadley Centre's sea ice dataset (HadISST1) from 1989 until 2010 has been studied.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest that reduced sea ice cover and a warmer Arctic in autumn may affect the middle latitudes by weakening the west-to-east wind speeds in the upper atmosphere, by increasing the frequency of wintertime blocking events, and by increasing continental snow cover that can in turn influence the atmospheric circulation.
Journal ArticleDOI
North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
Richard Grotjahn,Robert X. Black,Ruby Leung,Michael Wehner,Mathew Barlow,Michael G. Bosilovich,Alexander Gershunov,William J. Gutowski,John R. Gyakum,Richard W. Katz,Yun-Young Lee,Young-Kwon Lim,Prabhat +12 more
TL;DR: The current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1-week) extreme precipitation events over North America is surveyed in this article.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more
TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields
TL;DR: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) as mentioned in this paper is the signature of modulations in the strength of the polar vortex aloft, and it resembles the NAO in many respects; but its primary center of action covers more of the Arctic, giving it a more zonally symmetric appearance.
Journal ArticleDOI
Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability*
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared the structure and seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mode, referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and supplementary datasets.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.
TL;DR: Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes, which precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and the location of storm tracks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that large stratospheric anomalies are precursors to changes in tropospheric weather patterns, and the association of the AO pattern in the troposphere with modulation of the strength of the Stratospheric polar vortex provides perhaps the best measure of coupling between the stratosphere and the Troposphere.
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