Journal ArticleDOI
Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium with shear
TLDR
In this paper, the potential for tropical cyclone formation from a pre-existing disturbance is further explored with high-resolution simulations of cyclogenesis in idealized, tropical environments, which are generated from simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with fixed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), imposed mean surface winds, and an imposed profile of vertical wind shear.Abstract:
The potential for tropical cyclone formation from a pre-existing disturbance is further explored with high-resolution simulations of cyclogenesis in idealized, tropical environments. These idealized environments are generated from simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with fixed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), imposed mean surface winds, and an imposed profile of vertical wind shear. The propensity for tropical cyclogenesis in these environments is measured in two ways: first, in the period of time required for a weak, mid-level circulation to transition to a developing tropical cyclone; and second, from the value of an incubation parameter that incorporates environmental measures of mid-level saturation deficit and thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean. Conditions of tropospheric warming can be produced from increased SSTs or from increased mean surface winds; in either case, the time to genesis increases with atmospheric warming. As these parameters are varied, the incubation parameter is found to be highly correlated with changes in the time to genesis.
The high resolution (3 km) of these simulations permits analysis of changes in tropical cyclogenesis under warming conditions at the vortex scale. For increasing SST, increased mid-level saturation deficits (dryness) are the primary reason for slowing or preventing genesis. For environments with increased surface wind, it is the decreased thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean that delays or prevents development. An additional effect in both cases is a decoupling of the low-level and mid-level vortices, primarily as a result of increased advecting flow at the altitude of the mid-level vortex, which is linked to the height of the freezing level. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Societyread more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Thomas R. Knutson,John L. McBride,Johnny C. L. Chan,Kerry Emanuel,Greg J. Holland,Christopher W. Landsea,Isaac M. Held,James P. Kossin,Ashok K. Srivastava,Masato Sugi +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate and if so, how, has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Kevin Walsh,John L. McBride,Philip J. Klotzbach,Sethurathinam Balachandran,Suzana J. Camargo,Greg J. Holland,Thomas R. Knutson,James P. Kossin,Tsz-cheung Lee,Adam H. Sobel,Masato Sugi +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk.
Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change Supplementary Material
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen,Edvin Aldrian,Iracema Fonseca,Joseph Kanyanga,James Kossin,James Renwick,David B. Stephenson,Tianjun Zhou +7 more
TL;DR: Christensen et al. as mentioned in this paper, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change, presented the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hurricanes and climate: The U.S. Clivar working group on hurricanes
Kevin Walsh,Suzana J. Camargo,Gabriel A. Vecchi,Anne Sophie Daloz,James B. Elsner,Kerry Emanuel,Michael Horn,Young-Kwon Lim,Malcolm J. Roberts,Christina M. Patricola,Enrico Scoccimarro,Adam H. Sobel,Sarah Strazzo,Gabriele Villarini,Michael Wehner,Ming Zhao,James P. Kossin,Timothy E. LaRow,Kazuyoshi Oouchi,Siegfried D. Schubert,Hui Wang,Julio T. Bacmeister,Ping Chang,Fabrice Chauvin,Christiane Jablonowski,Arun Kumar,Hiroyuki Murakami,Tomoaki Ose,Kevin A. Reed,Ramalingam Saravanan,Yohei Yamada,Colin M. Zarzycki,Pier Luigi Vidale,Jeffrey A. Jonas,Naomi Henderson +34 more
TL;DR: The relationship between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity has been investigated in this article, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclones formation.
References
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A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3
C. Skamarock,B. Klemp,Jimy Dudhia,O. Gill,Dale Barker,G. Duda,Xiang-Yu Huang,Wei Wang,G. Powers +8 more
TL;DR: The Technical Note series provides an outlet for a variety of NCAR manuscripts that contribute in specialized ways to the body of scientific knowledge but which are not suitable for journal, monograph, or book publication.
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Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
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A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes
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A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2
William C. Skamarock,Joseph B. Klemp,Jimy Dudhia,David O. Gill,Dale Barker,Wei Wang,Jordan G. Powers +6 more
TL;DR: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as mentioned in this paper was developed as a collaborative effort among the NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Division, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Forecast System Laboratory (FSL), the Department of Defense's Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (F
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The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6)
Song-You Hong,Jeong-Ock Jade Lim +1 more
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