Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes
Beatrice Nash,Anthony Badea,Ankita Reddy,Miguel Bosch,Nol Salcedo,Adam R. Gomez,Alice F. Versiani,Gislaine Dutra,Thayza dos Santos,Bruno Henrique Gonçalves de Aguiar Milhim,Marilia Mazzi Moraes,Guilherme Campos,Flávia Quieroz,Andréia Francesli Negri Reis,Maurício Lacerda Nogueira,Elena N. Naumova,Irene Bosch,Bobby Brooke Herrera +17 more
TLDR
It is shown that high frequency, strategic population-wide rapid testing, even at varied accuracy levels, diminishes COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at a fraction of the cost of nucleic acid detection via qRT-PCR.Abstract:
High frequency screening of populations has been proposed as a strategy in facilitating control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use computational modeling, coupled with clinical data from rapid antigen tests, to predict the impact of frequent viral antigen rapid testing on COVID-19 spread and outcomes. Using patient nasal or nasopharyngeal swab specimens, we demonstrate that the sensitivity/specificity of two rapid antigen tests compared to quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) are 82.0%/100% and 84.7%/85.7%, respectively; moreover, sensitivity correlates directly with viral load. Based on COVID-19 data from three regions in the United States and Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, we show that high frequency, strategic population-wide rapid testing, even at varied accuracy levels, diminishes COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at a fraction of the cost of nucleic acid detection via qRT-PCR. We propose large-scale antigen-based surveillance as a viable strategy to control SARS-CoV-2 spread and to enable societal re-opening.read more
Citations
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Evaluation of the Panbio rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 in primary health care centers and test sites.
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