Showing papers on "Capital deepening published in 2012"

Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract: The pace and scale of China's economic transformation have no historical precedent. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world. The real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S. level and one-tenth the Brazilian level. Since then, China's real per capita GDP has grown at an average rate exceeding 8 percent per year. As a result, China's real per capita GDP is now almost one-fifth the U.S. level and at the same level as Brazil. This rapid and sustained improvement in average living standard has occurred in a country with more than 20 percent of the world’s population so that China is now the second-largest economy in the world. I will begin by discussing briefly China's historical growth performance from 1800 to 1950. I then present growth accounting results for the period from 1952 to 1978 and the period since 1978, decomposing the sources of growth into capital deepening, labor deepening, and productivity growth. But the main focus of this paper will be to examine the sources of growth since 1978, the year when China started economic reform. Perhaps surprisingly, given China's well-documented sky-high rates of saving and investment, I will argue that China’s rapid growth over the last three decades has been driven by productivity growth rather than by capital investment. I also examine the contributions of sector-level productivity growth, and of resource reallocation across sectors and across firms within a sector, to aggregate productivity growth. Overall, gradual and persistent institutional change and policy reforms that have reduced distortions and improved economic incentives are the main reasons for the productivity growth.

Reestimating the capital stock of China

Abstract: Capital stock is the basis of macroeconomic research, yet, China is no official announcement of the capital stock data, so, In order to improve the reliability and accuracy of follow-up study, by reviewing and comparing the existing research results in China, the author gives a method of calculating the capital stock by input-output table, And the author calculates the fixed capital stock of china and industrial sectors from 1986 to 2007 by PIM, further, compares the estimation results with the existing research. The capital-output ratio test shows that China is going through a capital deepening process. Further, by analyzing the capital stock of industrial sectors, we draw a conclusion, since the mid-90s, China's major industrial sectors have emerged in the process of capital deepening, but after the 1998, there was no capital deepening phenomenon.

Regional productivity variation and the impact of public capital stock: an analysis with spatial interaction, with reference to Spain

Abstract: In this article, we examine whether variations in the level of public capital across Spain's Provinces affected productivity levels over the period 1996 to 2005. The analysis is motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, involving a production function for the competitive sector of the economy (‘industry’) which includes the level of composite services derived from ‘service’ firms under monopolistic competition. The outcome is potentially increasing returns to scale resulting from pecuniary externalities deriving from internal increasing returns in the monopolistic competition sector. We extend the production function by also making (log) labour efficiency a function of (log) total public capital stock and (log) human capital stock, leading to a simple and empirically tractable reduced form linking productivity level to density of employment, human capital and public capital stock. The model is further extended to include technological externalities or spillovers across provinces. Using panel data ...

Economic growth in south asia: role of infrastructure

Abstract: We examine the output elasticity of infrastructure for four South Asian countries viz., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using panel cointegration techniques for the period 1980–2005. In this context, we develop an index of infrastructure stocks and investigate the impact of infrastructure on output. The study finds a long-run equilibrium relationship between output and infrastructure along with other relevant variables, such as gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), labor force, international trade and human capital. The results reveal that GDCF, labor force, export and expenditure on human capital exhibit a positive contribution to output. More importantly, infrastructure development contributes significantly to output growth in South Asia. Further, the panel causality analysis shows that there is mutual feedback between total output and infrastructure development.

Industrial Structure and Capital Flows

Abstract: This paper provides a new theory of international capital flows. In a framework that integrates factor-proportions-based trade and financial capital flows, a novel force emerges: capital tends to flow toward countries that become more specialized in capital-intensive industries. This "composition" effect competes with the standard force that channels capital toward the location where it is scarcer. If the composition effect dominates, capital flows away from the country hit by a positive labor force/productivity shock - a flow "reversal." Extended to a quantitative framework, the model generates sizable current account imbalances between developing and developed countries broadly consistent with the data.

Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: This paper presents a simple model of how a small open economy can undervalue its real exchange rate using its capital account policies. The paper presents several properties of such policies, and proposes a rule of thumb to assess their welfare cost. The model is applied to an analysis of Chinese capital account policies.

Economic and Regulatory Capital in Banking: What Is the Difference?

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of regulatory capital (the minimum required by regulation), economic capital (that chosen by shareholders without regulation), and actual capital (that chosen with regulation) in a dynamic model of a bank with a loan-portfolio return described by the single-risk-factor model of Basel II. We show that variables that only affect economic capital, such as the intermediation margin and the cost of capital, can account for large deviations from regulatory capital. Actual capital is closer to regulatory capital, but the threat of closing undercapitalized banks generates significant capital buffers. Market discipline, proxied by the coverage of deposit insurance, increases economic and actual capital, although the effects are small.

Business taxation and economic performance in hierarchical government structures

Abstract: This paper models theoretically and investigates empirically the consequences on local economic performance of state mandates on financially distressed authorities. In particular, I analyze the switch from systematic state bailout of regional health care deficits to selectively mandated hikes in regions’ own business income tax rates that took place in Italy around the mid 2000s, and exploit such dramatic switch to identify the impact of tax policy on the economy. I model factor input use within a multi-jurisdiction neoclassical framework, where production takes place in plants, and physical capital requires energy in fixed proportions depending on the size of energy-saving capital that is installed along with physical capital. Energy-saving capital can be interpreted either as tangible information technology (IT) equipment (e.g., computer-aided line speed control devices) or as intangible assets (e.g., process design skills) lowering a plant energy requirement. The estimation results based on panel data for the Italian provinces and regions over a decade (2000-2010) reveal that, by raising the user cost of capital, mandated business income tax hikes stimulate province-level business energy use, lending support to the hypothesis of short run substitution between energy and energy-saving capital, and hamper the employment of human resources in science and technology (S&T) occupations, the latter being interpretable as a proxy for energy-saving capital.

Intangible Capital and Economic Growth

Abstract: Despite increasing research efforts, there remains much confusion regarding the nature of and contribution of the most intangible forms of capital. This paper develops a comprehensive and unifying conception of intangible capital in order to understand its contribution to economic growth. Intangible capital is defined to include standard human capital, noncognitive human capital, social capital, and other intangible manifestations of human capacity. The arguments and evidence presented indicate that intangible capital is extremely important for explaining economic growth. The lesson for economists is that intangible human capacities should be at the forefront in efforts to understand and foster economic growth.

Regional convergence in Italy, 1891–2001: testing human and social capital

Abstract: The article aims to present and discuss estimates of levels of human and social capital in Italy’s regions over the long term, i.e., roughly from the second half of the nineteenth century up to the present day. The results are linked to newly available evidence for regional value added in order to begin to form an explanatory hypothesis of long-term regional inequality in Italy: convergence in value added per capita is tested in light of the neoclassical exogenous growth approach, which incorporates human capital and social capital as conditioning variables into a long-term production function. In contrast with conventional wisdom (e.g. Putnam 1993), we find that social capital was not a significant predictor of economic growth in post-Unification Italy: It grew in importance only in the last decades. Conversely, human capital was more important in the first half of the twentieth century. Results suggest that there was not one single conditioning variable over the long run, thus supporting the view that, in different periods, conditioning variables can be determined by technological regimes.

Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Micro Enterprise Development

Abstract: Many basic economic theories with perfectly functioning markets do not predict the existence of the vast number of microenterprises readily observed across the world. We put forward a model that illuminates why financial and managerial capital constraints may impede experimentation, and thus limit learning about the profitability of alternative firm sizes. The model shows how lack of information about one's own type, but willingness to experiment to learn one's type, may lead to short-run negative expected returns to investments on average, with some outliers succeeding. To test the model we put forward first a motivating experiment from Ghana, and second a small meta-analysis of other experiments. In the Ghana experiment, we provide inputs to microenterprises, specifically financial capital (a cash grant) and managerial capital (consulting services), to catalyze adoption of investments and practices aimed towards enterprise growth. We find that entrepreneurs invest the cash, and take the advice, but both lead to lower profits on average. In the long run, they revert back to their prior scale of operations. The small meta analysis includes results from 18 other experiments in which either capital or managerial capital were relaxed, and find mixed support for this theory.

Life-Cycle Wage Growth and Heterogeneous Human Capital

Abstract: Wages grow rapidly for young workers, and the human capital investment model is the classic framework to explain this growth. While estimation and the theory of human capital have traditionally focused on general human capital, both have evolved toward models of heterogeneous human capital. In this article, we review and evaluate the current state of this literature. We exposit the classic model of general human capital investment and extend it to show how a model of heterogeneous human capital can nest previous models. We then summarize the empirical literature on firm-specific human capital, industry- and occupation-specific human capital, and task-specific human capital and discuss how these concepts can explain a wide variety of labor market phenomena that traditional models cannot.

Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results

Abstract: Conventional measures of business investment consist primarily of tangible assets such as plant and equipment, vehicles, office buildings and other commercial structures. Corrado, Hulten and Sichel (2005, 2009) show business investment in intangibles (software, design, R&D, branding, organizational capital) exceeds tangible investment for the United States. This paper presents a harmonized data set and analysis of intangible investment, 1995-2009, for the EU27, Norway and the US, and growth accounts including intangible capital for 14 countries. We find (a) intangible investment in the EU is less than the US, but the share of intangible investment in GDP has been growing faster than the share of tangible (b) between 1995 and 2007 capital deepening accounted for almost 50% of growth in the EU and 65% in the US, with intangible investment contributing around half of capital deepening (c) higher rates of intangible capital deepening are associated with higher TFP growth, consistent with spillovers from intangibles.

Capital's Grabbing Hand? A Cross-Country/Cross-Industry Analysis of the Decline of the Labour Share

Abstract: We examine the determinants of the within-industry decline of the labour share, using industry-level annual data for 25 OECD countries, 20 business-sector industries and covering up to 28 years. We find that total factor productivity growth – which captures (albeit imprecisely) capital-augmenting or labour-replacing technical change – and capital deepening jointly account for as much as 80% of the within-industry contraction of the labour share. We also find that other important factors are privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the increase in international competition as well as off-shoring of intermediate stages of the production process. By contrast, we are unable to detect any effect from increases in domestic competition brought about by entry deregulation.

The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries

Abstract: After being excluded from world capital markets during the debt crisis, many developing countries have experienced large capital inflows during the past five years. The challenges that these inflows pose for domestic policy in recipient countries have generated a substantial literature. This article presents an overview of that literature, describing the characteristics of the new inflows, analyzing the policy issues they raise, assessing their causes and likely sustainability, and evaluating potential policy responses. The desirable policy response is tied to characteristics of the flows themselves as well as to the characteristics of the recipient economy.

On the Role of Capital Gains in Swedish Income Inequality

Abstract: Realized capital gains are typically disregarded in the study of income inequality. We show that in the case of Sweden this severely underestimates the actual increase in inequality and, in particu ...

Did the Indian Capital Controls Work as a Tool of Macroeconomic Policy

Abstract: The present debate over capital controls emphasizes their potential role as tools for macroeconomic and financial stability. The effectiveness of these tools may depend on whether a country has the legal and administrative machinery to implement capital controls. This paper contributes to the analysis of the costs and benefits of capital controls by studying the experience of India, a country that has a system of capital controls that had never been dismantled. The paper finds that when the capital controls were used as tools of macroeconomic policy, during a capital surge, the Indian experience appears to be similar to that of other countries.

Capital Account Liberalization

Abstract: Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results.

Non-profit organizations, entrepreneurship, social capital and economic growth

Abstract: Traditional economic growth literature focuses mainly on the neoclassical approach According to this view, firms try to maximize their benefits so that there is no place for non-profit organizations (NPOs) However, the activity of NPOs has a higher relevance in society, and it is necessary to analyze its effects on economic growth These effects are not direct, but occur through other variables that directly promote economic growth, such as entrepreneurship activity and human capital, and through the improvement of education We engage in an empirical analysis of these issues using data from 11 countries

The Money Value of a Man

Abstract: This paper posits a notion of the value of an individual's human capital and the associated return on human capital. These concepts are examined using U.S. data on male earnings and financial asset returns. We find that (1) the value of human capital is far below the value implied by discounting earnings at the risk-free rate, (2) mean human capital returns exceed stock returns early in life and decline with age, (3) the stock component of the value of human capital is smaller than the bond component at all ages and (4) human capital returns and stock returns have a small positive correlation over the working lifetime.