Showing papers on "Credit risk published in 2009"

Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity

Abstract: We provide a model that links a security’s market liquidity — i.e., the ease of trading it — and traders’ funding liquidity — i.e., their availability of funds. Traders provide market liquidity and their ability to do so depends on their funding, that is, their capital and the margins charged by their financiers. In times of crisis, reductions in market liquidity and funding liquidity are mutually reinforcing, leading to a liquidity spiral. The model explains the empirically documented features that market liquidity (i) can suddenly dry up (i.e. is fragile), (ii) has commonality across securities, (iii) is related to volatility, (iv) experiences “flight to liquidity” events, and (v) comoves with the market. Finally, the model shows how the Fed can improve current market liquidity by committing to improve funding in a potential future crisis.

Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing

Abstract: Some individuals borrow extensively on their credit cards. This paper tests whether present-biased time preferences correlate with credit card borrowing. In a field study, we elicit individual time preferences with incentivized choice experiments, and match resulting time preference measures to individual credit reports and annual tax returns. The results indicate that present-biased individuals are more likely to have credit card debt, and have significantly higher amounts of credit card debt, controlling for disposable income, other socio-demographics, and credit constraints.

Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market

Abstract: Do bond investors demand credit quality or liquidity? The answer is both, but at different times and for different reasons. Using data on the Euro-area government bond market, which features a unique negative correlation between credit quality and liquidity across countries, we show that the bulk of sovereign yield spreads is explained by differences in credit quality, though liquidity plays a nontrivial role, especially for low credit risk countries and during times of heightened market uncertainty. In contrast, the destination of large flows into the bond market is determined almost exclusively by liquidity. We conclude that credit quality matters for bond valuation but that, in times of market stress, investors chase liquidity, not credit quality.

The Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Bank profits are high in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions. This paper uses a sample of 389 banks in 41 SSA countries to study the determinants of bank profitability. We find that apart from credit risk, higher returns on assets are associated with larger bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank returns are affected by macroeconomic variables, suggesting that macroeconomic policies that promote low inflation and stable output growth does boost credit expansion. The results also indicate moderate persistence in profitability. Causation in the Granger sense from returns on assets to capital occurs with a considerable lag, implying that high returns are not immediately retained in the form of equity increases. Thus, the paper gives some support to a policy of imposing higher capital requirements in the region in order to strengthen financial stability.

Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads: The Role of Counterparty Risk

Abstract: We study the functioning and possible breakdown of the interbank market in the presence of counterparty risk. We allow banks to have private information about the risk of their assets. We show how banks JEL Classification: G01, G21, D82

Term-Structure Models: A Graduate Course

Abstract: Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Ito calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.

The Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Bank profits are high in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions. This paper uses a sample of 389 banks in 41 SSA countries to study the determinants of bank profitability. We find that apart from credit risk, higher returns on assets are associated with larger bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank returns are affected by macroeconomic variables, suggesting that macroeconomic policies that promote low inflation and stable output growth does boost credit expansion. The results also indicate moderate persistence in profitability. Causation in the Granger sense from returns on assets to capital occurs with a considerable lag, implying that high returns are not immediately retained in the form of equity increases. Thus, the paper gives some support to a policy of imposing higher capital requirements in the region in order to strengthen financial stability.

Securitisation and Financial Stability

Abstract: A widespread opinion before the credit crisis of 2007/8 was that securitisation enhances financial stability by dispersing credit risk. After the credit crisis, securitisation was blamed for allowing the ‘hot potato’ of bad loans to be passed to unsuspecting investors. Both views miss the endogeneity of credit supply. Securitisation enables credit expansion through higher leverage of the financial system as a whole. Securitisation by itself may not enhance financial stability if the imperative to expand assets drives down lending standards. The ‘hot potato’ of bad loans sits in the financial system on the balance sheets of large banks rather than being sold on to final investors, since the aim of financial intermediaries is to expand lending in order to utilise slack in balance sheet capacity.

Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market

Abstract: We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivative assets, and short-selling due to hedging of non-traded risk. We show that, both for positive-net-supply assets and derivatives, the sign of liquidity effects depends on investor heterogeneity in non-traded risk exposure, risk aversion, horizon and wealth. We also show that liquidity risk affects derivatives in a different way than positive-net-supply assets. We estimate this model for the credit default swap market using GMM. We find strong evidence for an expected liquidity premium earned by the credit protection seller. The effect of liquidity risk is significant but economically small.

Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk

Abstract: Standard credit risk models cannot explain the observed clustering of default, some times described as "credit contagion." This paper provides the first empirical analysis of credit contagion via direct counterparty effects. We find that bankruptcy announce ments cause negative abnormal equity returns and increases in CDS spreads for credi tors. In addition, creditors with large exposures are more likely to suffer from financial distress later. This suggests that counterparty risk is a potential additional channel of credit contagion. Indeed, the fear of counterparty defaults among financial institu tions explains the sudden worsening of the credit crisis after the Lehman bankruptcy in September 2008.

Rollover Risk and Market Freezes

Abstract: We consider the debt capacity of a risky asset when debt is being rolled over and there is a liquidation cost in case of default We show that debt capacity depends on how information about the quality of the asset is revealed When the information structure is based on “optimistic” expectations, the arrival of no news about the asset is good news; under this structure, debt capacity does not depend upon rollovers and liquidation cost, and is simply equal to expected cash flows from the asset In contrast, when the information structure is based on “pessimistic” expectations, no news about the asset is bad news; under this structure, debt capacity of the asset is decreasing in the liquidation cost and frequency of rollovers In the limit, as the number of rollovers becomes unbounded, the debt capacity goes to zero even for an arbitrarily small default risk Our model explains why markets for rollover debt, such as asset-backed commercial paper, may experience sudden freezes The model also provides an explicit formula for the haircut in secured borrowing or repo transactions

Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads in the euro area with a focus on developments during the global financial crisis that started in 2007. In line with the previous literature, we find that international factors, in particular general risk perception, play a major role in explaining governments bond yields differentials. While domestic factors such as liquidity and sovereign risk appear to be smaller but non-negligible drivers of yield spreads our results point to significant interaction of general risk aversion and macroeconomic fundamentals. Moreover, the impact of domestic factors on bond yield spreads increase significantly during the crisis, when international investors started to discriminate more between countries. In particular, the combination of high risk aversion and large current account deficits tend to magnify the incidence of deteriorated public finances on government bond yield spreads. Overall, our results suggest that an improvement in global risk perception will lead to a narrowing of intra-euro area bond yield differentials. However, the differing impact of the crisis on Member States' public finances and the expected higher risk awareness of investors after the crisis could keep government bond yield spreads at a higher level then in the pre-crisis period.

Market Conditions, Default Risk and Credit Spreads

Abstract: This study empirically examines the impact of the interaction between market and default risk on corporate credit spreads. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that average credit spreads decrease in GDP growth rate, but increase in GDP growth volatility and jump risk in the equity market. At the market level, investor sentiment is the most important determinant of credit spreads. At the firm level, credit spreads generally rise with cash flow volatility and beta, with the effect of cash flow beta varying with market conditions. We identify implied volatility as the most significant determinant of default risk among firm-level characteristics. Overall, a major portion of individual credit spreads is accounted for by firm-level determinants of default risk, while macroeconomic variables are directly responsible for a lesser portion.

Has the CDS Market Lowered the Cost of Corporate Debt

Abstract: Many have claimed that credit default swaps (CDSs) have lowered the cost of debt financing to firms by creating new hedging opportunities and information for investors. This paper evaluates the impact that the onset of CDS trading has on the spreads that underlying firms pay to raise funding in the corporate bond and syndicated loan markets. Employing a range of methodologies, we fail to find evidence that the onset of CDS trading lowers the cost of debt financing for the average borrower. Further, we uncover economically significant adverse effects on risky and informationally opaque firms.

The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework

Abstract: We embed a structural model of credit risk inside a dynamic continuous-time consumption-based asset pricing model, which allows us to price equity and corporate debt in a unified framework. Our key economic assumptions are that the first and second moments of earnings and consumption growth depend on the state of the economy which switches randomly, creating intertemporal risk, which agents prefer to resolve sooner rather than later, because they have Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences. Agents optimally choose dynamic capital structure and default times. For a dynamic cross-section of firms, our model endogenously generates a realistic average term structure and time series of actual default probabilities and credit spreads, together with a reasonable levered equity risk premium, which varies with macroeconomic conditions.

Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis

Abstract: While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads

The Janus-Headed Salvation: Sovereign and Bank Credit Risk Premia during 2008-09

Abstract: As the global banking crisis intensified in the fall of 2008, governments announced comprehensive rescue packages for financial institutions. In this paper, we put the joint response of euro area bank and sovereign CDS premia under the microscope. We find that the bank rescue packages led to a clear structural break in these premia's comovement, which had been rather tight and stable in the weeks preceding the intensification of the crisis. Firstly, the packages induced a decrease in risk spreads for banks at the expense of a marked increase in risk spreads for governments. Secondly, we show that in addition to this one-off jump in the levels of CDS spreads, the packages strongly increased the sensitivity of sovereign risk spreads to any further aggravation of the crisis. At the same time, the sensitivity of bank credit risk premia declined and became more sovereign-like, reflecting the extensive government guarantees of banking sector liabilities.

Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics

Abstract: Understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability. By exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments, we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk-taking. Using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms, we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm-specific characteristics. When time-effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account, the results improve substantially. Hence, though the firms’ financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities, macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time.

Bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability: Empirical evidence from the China banking sector

Abstract: This paper seeks to examine the determinants of the profitability of the Chinese banking sector during the post-reform period of 2000–2005. The empirical findings from this study suggest that all the determinants variables have statistically significant impact on China banks profitability. However, the impacts are not uniform across bank types. We find that liquidity, credit risk, and capitalization have positive impacts on the state owned commercial banks (SOCBs) profitability, while the impact of cost is negative. Similar to their SOCB counterparts, we find that joint stock commercial banks (JSCB) with higher credit risk tend to be more profitable, while higher cost results in a lower JSCB profitability levels. During the period under study, the empirical findings suggest that size and cost results in a lower city commercial banks (CITY) profitability, while the more diversified and relatively better capitalized CITY tend to exhibit higher profitability levels. The impact of economic growth is positive, while growth in money supply is negatively related to the SOCB and CITY profitability levels.

Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending across Countries

Abstract: While theory predicts different effects of household credit and enterprise credit on the economy, the empirical literature has mainly used aggregate measures of overall bank lending to the private sector. We construct a new dataset from 45 developed and developing countries, decomposing bank lending into lending to enterprises and lending to households and assess the different effects of these two components on real sector outcomes. We find that: 1) enterprise credit raises economic growth whereas household credit has no effect; 2) enterprise credit reduces income inequality whereas household credit has no effect; and 3) household credit is negatively associated with excess consumption sensitivity, while there is no relationship between enterprise credit and excess consumption sensitivity.

Credit Ratings and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Abstract: Low credit risk firms realize higher returns than high credit risk firms. This effect is puzzling because investors seem to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. This paper shows that the credit risk effect manifests itself due to the poor performance of low-rated stocks during periods of financial distress at least three months before and after credit rating downgrades. Around downgrades, low-rated firms experience considerable negative returns amid strong institutional selling, whereas returns do not differ across credit risk groups in stable or improving credit conditions. Remarkably, the group of low-rated stocks driving the credit risk effect accounts for about 4.2% of the total market capitalization. Isolating the credit risk effect to a limited number of firms in a specific set of circumstance allows us to distinguish between its potential explanations. Our evidence points away from risk-based explanations, and towards mispricing generated by retail investors and sustained by illiquidity and short sell constraints.

Banking supervision and nonperforming loans: a cross‐country analysis

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse the cross‐countries determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs), the potential impact of supervisory devices, and institutional environment on credit risk exposure.Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs aggregate banking, financial, economic, and legal environment data for a panel of 59 countries over the period 2002‐2006. It develops a comprehensive model to explain differences in the level of NPLs between countries. To assess the role of regulatory supervision on credit risk, the paper uses several interactions between institutional features and regulatory devices.Findings – The empirical results indicate that higher capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and prudent provisioning policy seems to reduce the level of problem loans. The paper also reports a desirable impact of private ownership, foreign participation, and bank concentration. However, the findings do not support the view that market discipline leads to better economic outcomes. All...

Credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility with endogenous default and jump risk

Abstract: We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the “smooth fitting” principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.

Counterparty Credit Risk : The new challenge for global financial markets

Abstract: The first decade of the 21st Century has been disastrous for financial institutions, derivatives and risk management. Counterparty credit risk has become the key element of financial risk management, highlighted by the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers and failure of other high profile institutions such as Bear Sterns, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The sudden realisation of extensive counterparty risks has severely compromised the health of global financial markets. Counterparty risk is now a key problem for all financial institutions.This book explains the emergence of counterparty risk during the recent credit crisis. The quantification of firm-wide credit exposure for trading desks and businesses is discussed alongside risk mitigation methods such as netting and collateral management (margining). Banks and other financial institutions have been recently developing their capabilities for pricing counterparty risk and these elements are considered in detail via a characterisation of credit value adjustment (CVA). The implications of an institution valuing their own default via debt value adjustment (DVA) are also considered at length. Hedging aspects, together with the associated instruments such as credit defaults swaps (CDSs) and contingent CDS (CCDS) are described in full.A key feature of the credit crisis has been the realisation of wrong-way risks illustrated by the failure of monoline insurance companies. Wrong-way counterparty risks are addressed in detail in relation to interest rate, foreign exchange, commodity and, in particular, credit derivative products. Portfolio counterparty risk is covered, together with the regulatory aspects as defined by the Basel II capital requirements. The management of counterparty risk within an institution is also discussed in detail. Finally, the design and benefits of central clearing, a recent development to attempt to control the rapid growth of counterparty risk, is considered.This book is unique in being practically focused but also covering the more technical aspects. It is an invaluable complete reference guide for any market practitioner with any responsibility or interest within the area of counterparty credit risk.

Credit Line Usage, Checking Account Activity, and Default Risk of Bank Borrowers

Abstract: We investigate the link between account activity and information production on borrower quality. Based on a unique data set, we find that credit line usage, limit violations, and cash inflows exhibit abnormal patterns approximately 12 months before default events. Measures of account activity substantially improve default predictions and are especially helpful for monitoring small businesses and individuals. We also find that the early warning indications from account activity result in higher loan spreads, and in a higher likelihood of limit reductions and complete write-offs. Our results highlight that the information on account activity provides banks with a real-time window into the borrower’s cash flows, creating a unique advantage over non-bank lenders and capital markets.

Credit Risk and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Abstract: Embedded in canonical macroeconomic models is the assumption of frictionless financial markets, implying that the composition of borrowers’ balance sheets has no effect on their spending decision. As a result, these models have a difficult time accounting for the feedback effects between financial conditions and the real economy during periods of financial turmoil. Financial frictions — reflecting agency problems in credit markets — provide a theoretical link between the agents’ financial health and the amount of borrowing and hence economic activity in which they are able to engage. This paper attempts to quantify the role of such frictions in business cycle fluctuations by estimating a DSGE model with the financial accelerator mechanism that links balance sheet conditions to the real economy through movements in the external finance premium. Our estimation methodology incorporates a high information-content credit spread — constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding corporate bonds — into the Bayesian ML estimation. This credit spread serves as a proxy for the unobservable external finance premium, an approach that allows us to estimate simultaneously the key parameters of the financial accelerator mechanism along with the shocks to the financial sector. Our results indicate the presence of an operative financial accelerator in U.S. cyclical fluctuations over the 1973–2009 period: Increases in the external finance premium cause significant and protracted declines in investment and output. The estimated effects of financial shocks and their impact on the macroeconomy also accord well with historical perceptions of the interaction between financial conditions and economic activity during cyclical fluctuations over the past three decades and a half.

Corruption, Political Connections, and Municipal Finance

Abstract: We show that state corruption and political connections have strong effects on municipal bond sales and underwriting. Higher state corruption is associated with greater credit risk and higher bond yields. Corrupt states can eliminate the corruption yield penalty by purchasing credit enhancements. Underwriting fees were significantly higher during an era when underwriters made political contributions to win underwriting business. This pay-to-play underwriting fee premium exists only for negotiated bid bonds where underwriting business can be allocated on the basis of political favoritism. Overall, our results show a strong impact of corruption and political connections on financial market outcomes. The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Shipping Derivatives and Risk Management

Abstract: Introduction to Risk Management and Derivatives Introduction to Shipping Markets Statistical Tools for Risk Analysis and Modelling Freight Market Information Forward Freight Agreement Technical Analysis and Freight Trading Strategies Options on Freight Rates Pricing and Risk Management of Option Positions Value-at-Risk in Shipping and Freight Risk Management Financial and Interest Rate Risk Management in Shipping Credit Risk Measurement and Management in Shipping Ship Price Risk and Risk Management Real Options and Optionalities in Shipping