Showing papers on "Free trade published in 2013"

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Abstract: This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change. (JEL D72, E24, F13, F16, L24, L60, P33)

Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters

Abstract: If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources. Removing this misallocation accounts for a substantial share of the overall gain in productivity associated with quota removal. (JEL F13, F14, L67, O14, O19, P23, P33) Institutions that distort the efficient allocation of resources across firms can have a sizable effect on economic outcomes. Hsieh and Klenow (2009), for example, estimate that distortions in the Chinese economy reduce manufacturing productivity by 30 to 50 percent relati ve to an optimal distribution of capital and labor across existing manufacturers. While research in this area often concentrates on misallocation among existing firms, distortions can also favor incumbents at the expense of entrants. Trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas can obviously distort resource allocation along these “intensive” and “extensive” margins, and estimation of the productivity growth associated with their removal is a traditional line of inquiry in international trade. But gains from trade liberalization may be larger than expected if the institutions created to manage the barriers impose their own, additional drag on productivity (e.g., arbitrary enforcement of quotas and tariffs). In that case, trade liberalization induces two gains: the first from the elimination of the embedded institution, and the second from the removal of the trade barrier itself. In this article, we examine productivity growth among Chinese exporters following the removal of externally imposed quotas. Under the global Agreement on Textile and Clothing, previously known (and referred to in this article) as the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA), textile and clothing exports from China and other de veloping

Regional Effects of Trade Reform: What Is the Correct Measure of Liberalization?

Abstract: A growing body of research examines the regional effects of trade liberalization using a weighted average of trade policy changes across industries. This paper develops a specific-factors model of regional economies that provides a theoretical foundation for this intuitively appealing empirical approach and also provides guidance on treatment of the nontraded sector. In the context of Brazil's early 1990s trade liberalization, I find that regions facing a 10 percentage point larger liberalization-induced price decline experienced a 4 percentage point larger wage decline. The results also confirm the empirical relevance of appropriately dealing with the nontraded sector.

How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade

Abstract: We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral commodity trade due to goods not exported previously or exported only in small quantities. Using a panel of 1,900 country pairs, we find that increased trade of these “least-traded goods” is an important factor in trade growth. This extensive margin accounts for 10 percent of the growth in trade for NAFTA country pairs, for example, and 26 percent in trade between the United States and Chile, China, and Korea. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little change in the extensive margin.

Trade and the Environment

Abstract: During the last few decades there has been growing recognition and concern about the effects of the economy on the natural environment. There has also been a significant increase in the integration of the international economy. As the international trade regime has grown in complexity and visibility via the evolution of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a wave of bilateral and regional free trade agreements, the interaction between globalization and the environment has become an important issue on the policy agenda.

Trade, Tastes and Nutrition in India

Abstract: This paper introduces habit formation into an otherwise standard model of international trade. Household tastes evolve over time to favor foods consumed as a child. The opening of trade causes preferred goods to rise in price, as these were relatively inexpensive in autarky. Neglecting the correlation between tastes and agro-climatic endowments overstates the short-run nutritional gains from agricultural trade liberalization and masks potential caloric losses for laborers. I examine the predictions of this model of trade with habit formation using household survey data from India, both by looking across Indian regions and by examining the consumption patterns of inter-state migrants.

Trade Diversification, Income, and Growth: What Do We Know?

Abstract: This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversification and productivity at the firm and industry level, highlighting new advances on the linkages between import diversification and productivity.

An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains

Abstract: This article develops an elementary theory of global supply chains. We consider a world economy with an arbitrary number of countries, one factor of production, a continuum of intermediate goods and one final good. Production of the final good is sequential and subject to mistakes. In the unique free trade equilibrium, countries with lower probabilities of making mistakes at all stages specialize in later stages of production. Using this simple theoretical framework, we offer a first look at how vertical specialization shapes the interdependence of nations.

Trade costs in the developing world : 1995 – 2010

Abstract: The authors use newly collected data on trade and production in 178 countries to infer estimates of trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods for the 1995-2010 period. The data show that trade costs are strongly declining in per capita income. Moreover, the rate of change of trade costs is largely unfavorable to the developing world: trade costs are falling noticeably faster in developed countries than in developing ones, which serves to increase the relative isolation of the latter. In particular, Sub-Saharan African countries and low-income countries remain subject to very high levels of trade costs. In terms of policy implications, the analysis finds that maritime transport connectivity and logistics performance are very important determinants of bilateral trade costs: in some specifications, their combined effect is comparable to that of geographical distance. Traditional and non-traditional trade policies more generally, including market entry barriers and regional integration agreements, play a significant role in shaping the trade costs landscape.

A global approach to energy and the environment: The G-cubed model

Abstract: G-Cubed is a multi-country, multi-sector, intertemporal general equilibrium model that has been used to study a variety of policies in the areas of environmental regulation, tax reform, monetary and fiscal policy, and international trade. It is designed to bridge the gaps between three areas of research – econometric general equilibrium modeling, international trade theory, and modern macroeconomics – by incorporating the best features of each. This chapter describes the theoretical and empirical structure of the model, summarizes its applications and contributions to the literature, and discusses two example applications in detail.

Is Protectionism on the Rise? Assessing National Trade Policies during the Crisis of 2008

Abstract: To understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008, this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009. The index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country, taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity. Results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded. While many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products, only a handful of countries, such as Malawi, Russia, Argentina, Turkey and China focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows. The United States and the European Union, by contrast, rely mainly on anti-dumping duties to shield domestic industries. Overall, while the rise in tariffs and anti-dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as US$43 billion during the crisis period, it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade.

Transatlantic trade : whither partnership, which economic consequences?

Abstract: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is much more than another preferential trade agreement project: it aims to link the world's two biggest economic entities. The initiative seems motivated by the stalemate in multilateral negotiations, the competition between trade agreements, and the willingness of the two partners to retain their leading positions in world trade, or at least to limit their loss of influence. Given the limited average level of the import tariffs - 2% in the US and 3% in the EU - these duties in most cases are not the most important stake (exceptions are a few sensitive products, mainly some dairy products, some clothing and footwear, and some steel items for the US, and meat products in the EU). Much more significant at the macroeconomic level are negotiations on non-tariff measures, regulation in services, public procurement, geographical indications, and investment, all of which are contentious. We first review the main issues at stake in each case and then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic impacts of an agreement. Not all aspects of the negotiations can be incorporated in the model but it does account for the restrictive impact of non-tariff measures on trade in goods and of regulatory measures on trade in services. The corresponding levels of protection provided by the non-tariff measures are much higher on average than those provided by the tariffs, and they differ significantly across sectors, confirming their sensitivity in these negotiations. Our central scenario combines progressive but complete phasing-out of tariff protection accompanied by an across-the-board 25% cut in the trade restrictiveness of non-tariff measures, for both product and service sectors with the exception of public and audiovisual services. We find that trade between the two signing regions in goods and services would approximately increase 50% on average, including an upsurge of 150% for agricultural products. Eighty percent of the expected trade expansion would stem from lowered non-tariff measures. Both partners to the proposed agreement would reap non-negligible GDP gains, in the long run, corresponding to an annual increase in national income of $98bn for the EU and of $64bn for the US.

The State of the European Union

Abstract: • A geographical area, from the Mediterranean to Iceland and from the Atlantic to Russia – including the countries of Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia • The European Economic Area – an free trade alliance of 30 countries, including 27 European Union countries plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway • The European Union (EU) – a confederation of 27 countries, from Cyprus to Ireland and from the Mediterranean to Finland • The eurozone – the 17 EU countries that use the common currency, the euro (€)

Where now for fair trade

Abstract: This paper critically examines the discourse surrounding fair trade mainstreaming, and discusses the potential avenues for the future of the social movement. The authors have a unique insight into the fair trade market having a combined experience of over 30 years in practice and 15 as fair trade scholars. The paper highlights a number of benefits of mainstreaming, not least the continued growth of the global fair trade market (tipped to top $7bn in 2012). However, the paper also highlights the negative consequences of mainstreaming on the long-term viability of fair trade as a credible ethical standard.

Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s

Abstract: According to the Washington Consensus, developing countries' growth would benefit from reductions in barriers to trade. However, the empirical basis for judging trade reforms is weak. Econometrics are mostly ad hoc, results are typically not judged against models, policies are poorly measured, and most studies are based on pre-1990 experience. We address these concerns by employing a model with capital and intermediate goods, compiling new disaggregated tariff measures, and employing treatment and control regression analysis with differences-in-differences. We find that a specific treatment, liberalizing tariffs on imported capital and intermediate goods, led to faster growth, consistent with the model.

Trading Away Wide Brands for Cheap Brands

Abstract: Firms face competing needs to expand product variety and reduce production costs. Access to larger markets enables innovation to reduce costs. Although firm scale increases, foreign competition reduces markups. Firms' ability to recapture lost markups depends on the interplay between within-firm competition and across-firm competition. Narrowing product variety eases within-firm competition but lowers market share. I provide a theory detailing the impact of trade policy on product and process innovation. Unbundling innovation provides new insights into welfare gains and innovation policy. Product innovation increases welfare beyond standard gains from trade. The relative returns to innovation policy change with trade liberalization.

Do terms-of-trade effects matter for trade agreements? Theory and evidence from WTO Countries*

Abstract: International trade agreements are an important element of the world economic system, but questions remain as to their purpose. The terms-of-trade hypothesis posits that countries use tariffs in part to improve their terms of trade and that trade agreements cause them to internalize the costs that such terms-of-trade shifts impose on other countries. This article investigates whether the most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs set by World Trade Organization (WTO) members in the Uruguay Round are consistent with the terms-of-trade hypothesis. We present a model of multilateral trade negotiations featuring endogenous participation that leads the resulting tariff schedules to display terms-of-trade effects. Specifically, the model predicts that the level of the importer's tariff resulting from negotiations should be negatively related to the product of two terms: exporter concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (sum of squared export shares), and the importer's market power, as measured by the inverse elasticity of export supply, on a product-by-product basis. We test this hypothesis using data on tariffs, trade, and production across more than 30 WTO countries and find strong support. We estimate that the internalization of terms of trade effects through WTO negotiations has lowered the average tariff of these countries by 22% to 27% compared to its noncooperative level. JEL Codes: F1, F5. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future

Abstract: Th is paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment fl ows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the fi rst since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world’s largest trader and a major benefi ciary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. Th e third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade confl icts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefi ts all countries.

A Trapped-Factors Model of Innovation †

Abstract: Recent empirical work has found that firms do more innovation when they are exposed to more low-cost import competition (Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen 2012). Why is it that they innovate after something bad has happened to them? To explain this we add a natural friction to a model of growth and trade, an adjustment cost to reallocating factors of production between firms. These frictions can “trap” factors of production inside a firm that suffers from unexpected import competition. This reduces the opportunity cost of the inputs that the firm uses to innovate. Because the social return to innovation is higher than the private return, trade liberalization can generate extra welfare benefits when this friction is present. Our finding that frictions can increase the welfare gains from a trade liberalization stands in contrast to the standard view that models which include such frictions reduce the gains from trade (e.g., Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013).

Measuring the cost of international trade in services

Abstract: We present a new dataset of international trade costs in services sectors. Using a theory-based methodology combined with data on domestic shipments and cross-border trade, we find that trade costs in services are much higher than in goods sectors: a multiple of two to three times in many cases. Trade costs in services have remained relatively steady over the last ten years, whereas trade costs in goods have fallen overall at an impressive rate. We also present two examples of the ways in which our dataset could be used in future work. First, we examine the impact of regional trade agreements on trade costs in services. Although we find that intra-bloc trade costs are lower than those facing outside countries, the differential is usually quite small for services, and in some cases has even been narrowing over time. This finding accords with the observation that because service sector reform is about re-regulation, “preferential” agreements tend to involve less discrimination than in goods markets. Second, we show for the first time that services sectors with lower trade costs tend to be more productive, and experience faster productivity growth. This result lines up well with the evidence from goods markets.

North-South standards harmonization and international trade

Abstract: Recent years have seen a surge in economic integration agreements (EIAs) and the development of non-tariff measures (NTMs). As a consequence, a growing number of EIAs include provisions on NTMs. However, little attention has been given in the literature to the effects of NTM liberalization in the context of EIAs. In this paper, we focus on provisions for technical regulations and analyze whether the North-South harmonization of technical barriers affects international trade. Using a gravity equation, it tests whether, as a result of the deep integration associated with standards provisions included in the EIA, the Southern partners' trade expands with the North, but at the expense of their trade with non-bloc Southern partners. Empirical results provide strong support for this conjecture. Moreover, harmonization on the basis of regional standards negatively impacts the exports of developing countries to the North.