Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2011"

FORESIGHT PROJECT ON GLOBAL FOOD AND FARMING FUTURES The role of urban agriculture in building resilient cities in developing countries

Abstract: SUMMARY The current paper brie! y summarizes the available evidence regarding the potential of urban agriculture to respond to a number of key urban challenges and reviews the perspectives on urban agriculture applied by local and national authorities. The last section of the paper brie! y presents the authors’ views on the development of urban agriculture as an integral part of sustainable city development.

Negotiating Plausibility: Intervening in the Future of Nanotechnology

Abstract: The national-level scenarios project NanoFutures focuses on the social, political, economic, and ethical implications of nanotechnology, and is initiated by the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University (CNS-ASU) The project involves novel methods for the development of plausible visions of nanotechnology-enabled futures, elucidates public preferences for various alternatives, and, using such preferences, helps refine future visions for research and outreach In doing so, the NanoFutures project aims to address a central question: how to deliberate the social implications of an emergent technology whose outcomes are not known The solution pursued by the NanoFutures project is twofold First, NanoFutures limits speculation about the technology to plausible visions This ambition introduces a host of concerns about the limits of prediction, the nature of plausibility, and how to establish plausibility Second, it subjects these visions to democratic assessment by a range of stakeholders, thus raising methodological questions as to who are relevant stakeholders and how to activate different communities so as to engage the far future This article makes the dilemmas posed by decisions about such methodological issues transparent and therefore articulates the role of plausibility in anticipatory governance

Steps Toward an Explicit Ontology of the Future

Abstract: After decades characterized by diminishing interest in the theoretical underpinning of futures studies, the past few years have seen the onset of a new concern with the foundation of futures studies. Interestingly, recent discussion has not been limited to the epistemological bases of futures studies but has also begun to address the problem of its ontological grounds. The paper discusses some of the elements of ontology that should become part and parcel of the set of categorical tools that any working futurist should have at his or her disposal, such as the theories of latents and levels of reality.

FORESIGHT PROJECT ON GLOBAL FOOD AND FARMING FUTURES The application of science and technology development in shaping current and future aquaculture production systems

Abstract: SUMMARY Aquaculture development over the past 50 years has been facilitated largely by the application of science and the introduction of new technologies. Although aquaculture is a very diverse sector in products, production systems and business structures, almost every activity has benefited from scientific advances. However, the impact of technological progress is most clearly seen where there has also been substantial industrial consolidation. This has provided greater capital resources for investment and a more attractive market for suppliers of innovations to target. It has also encouraged consolidation of research capacity and stronger articulation between private and publicly funded research efforts. Further development along current trajectories is possible through advances in genomics, information technology, materials science and other areas. However, there may also be substantial disruptions if, for instance, energy becomes much more expensive, or large mono-cultures are impacted by climate change. Substantial change could also be driven by policies that aim at bringing realistic external costs of environmental services into company accounts. Research into more resilient aquaculture systems that comply more with ecological than financial accounting principles is under way, but will require substantial development to meet the challenges of rising food needs and social aspirations.

Ready for the future? Universities' capabilities to strategically manage their intellectual capital

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions. The objective is to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector. It also aims to focus on how it may be possible for universities to address the challenges of major change management programmes by implementing foresight and intellectual capital management models.Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews recent literature both on conceptual issues and experiences in relation to foresight and intellectual capital. The paper presents an ongoing project focused on the development of a vision for the future of the higher education system in Romania and a frame to differentiate Romanian universities.Findings – A proposal of an integrated use of foresight and intellectual capital management for universities is suggested. The case study presented illus...

Visioneering: an essential framework in sustainability science

Abstract: The science of sustainability has inevitably emerged as a vibrant field of research and education that transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses increasingly on understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES). Yet, sustainability remains an elusive concept, and its nature seems unclear for the most part. In order to truly mobilize people and nations towards sustainability, we place emphasis on the necessity of understanding the nature, cost and principles of ‘visioneering’—the engineering of a clear vision. In SES, purpose is the most important pillar, which gives birth to vision—the key to fulfilling the systems’ mission. Such a systems perspective leads us to redefine resilience as jumping back to the original purpose, for which SES do not necessarily retain the same structures and functioning after disturbances. A sustainable future will require purpose-driven transformation of society at all scales, guided by the best foresight, with insight based on hindsight that science can provide. Visioneering with resilience-based systems thinking will provide communities with a logical framework for understanding their interconnections and purposes, envisioning a sustainable web of life, and eventually dancing with the systems.

Environmentalism in transition? Emerging perspectives, issues and futures practices in contemporary environmentalism

Abstract: In this article I consider desired and in-progress reframing of environmentalism to better ”fit” and influence the contemporary context. This review is structured by the Transformation Cycle, a critical futures studies tool. Emerging perspectives, issues and practices are highlighted and interpreted to contribute to research and action pursuing more sustainable futures. I draw on Dryzek's model of competing environmental discourses and the concept of ”waves” of environmentalism, and ask: is environmentalism in transition? The article presents evidence of increased ”futurism” (as defined by Jim Dator) in environmental movements and new forms of ”positive dissent” (as defined by Richard Slaughter) that demonstrate significant innovations in the use of futures methods to create desired futures. The article concludes by reconsidering and reasserting the case for the futures and environmental fields working more closely together.

Steering vaccinomics innovations with anticipatory governance and participatory foresight.

Abstract: Vaccinomics is the convergence of vaccinology and population-based omics sciences. The success of knowledge-based innovations such as vaccinomics is not only contingent on access to new biotechnologies. It also requires new ways of governance of science, knowledge production, and management. This article presents a conceptual analysis of the anticipatory and adaptive approaches that are crucial for the responsible design and sustainable transition of vaccinomics to public health practice. Anticipatory governance is a new approach to manage the uncertainties embedded on an innovation trajectory with participatory foresight, in order to devise governance instruments for collective "steering" of science and technology. As a contrast to hitherto narrowly framed "downstream impact assessments" for emerging technologies, anticipatory governance adopts a broader and interventionist approach that recognizes the social construction of technology design and innovation. It includes in its process explicit mechanisms to understand the factors upstream to the innovation trajectory such as deliberation and cocultivation of the aims, motives, funding, design, and direction of science and technology, both by experts and publics. This upstream shift from a consumer "product uptake" focus to "participatory technology design" on the innovation trajectory is an appropriately radical and necessary departure in the field of technology assessment, especially given that considerable public funds are dedicated to innovations. Recent examples of demands by research funding agencies to anticipate the broad impacts of proposed research--at a very upstream stage at the time of research funding application--suggest that anticipatory governance with foresight may be one way how postgenomics scientific practice might transform in the future toward responsible innovation. Moreover, the present context of knowledge production in vaccinomics is such that policy making for vaccines of the 21st century is occurring in the face of uncertainties where the "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent and where no single one of these dimensions can be managed in isolation from the rest." This article concludes, however, that uncertainty is not an accident of the scientific method, but its very substance. Anticipatory governance with participatory foresight offers a mechanism to respond to such inherent sociotechnical uncertainties in the emerging field of vaccinomics by making the coproduction of scientific knowledge by technology and the social systems explicit. Ultimately, this serves to integrate scientific and social knowledge thereby steering innovations to coproduce results and outputs that are socially robust and context sensitive.

Foresight for European Coordination: Developing National Priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform

Abstract: We explore what implications the geographical dispersion of foresight participants and their regional idiosyncrasies have for the management of foresight processes. Specifically, we argue that these kinds of multi-stakeholder processes place demands such as scalability, modularity and dependability on the design and deployment of foresight methodologies. We also report a Finnish foresight process to support the development of the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) of the European Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. This process was based on the RPM Screening methodology which consisted of the internet-based solicitation and assessment of research themes, identification of promising research themes through Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM),1 and several facilitated workshops.

Scope and design issues in foresight support systems

Abstract: The general rationale for conducting Foresight studies is to reduce uncertainty, for instance, by providing information in the form of scenarios, critical technology lists, priorities and recommendations for action. Such initiatives, aside from their discrete outputs, also tend to foster process benefits, which can include increased networking and coordination among actors. We propose Foresight Support Systems (FSSs) as collaborative computer-based systems aimed at supporting communication decision modelling rules of order in foresight processes. The relevance of the authors’ proposal arises from the growing necessity in Foresight for instruments that allow researchers and practitioners to innovate by means of an intensive use of Information Technology (IT). Issues such as the scope, the features, users and components of FSS are discussed.

Securing the future of the natural environment: using scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature

Abstract: Summary 1. Maintaining and protecting biodiversity for the future under changing environmental and socio-political conditions is a major challenge. Scenarios are used as decision-making aids for natural resource management at local to global scales. Scenarios are underutilised by conservationists at a local level, where they can be highly effective for anticipating change. 2. People’s values and attitudes are crucial in determining the future, yet they are rarely placed at the centre of scenario exercises. Novel methods have been developed to fully integrate people’s worldviews into scenario planning. The ethnographic futures framework focuses on how changes occur through human agency and how they will be felt by society in the future. The three horizons approach considers how different ideas and paradigms become more, or less, dominant in society over time. 3. Natural England (NE), the statutory adviser to the UK Government on the natural environment in England, carried out a scenario planning process using these novel approaches. The scenarios consider a wide range of global and local factors and investigate their impact upon the natural environment in England, to 2060. 4. A set of four contrasting scenarios was produced. Despite their differences, nature was always highly valued in some form; ultimately, the state of the natural environment was determined not by natural forces but by societal choice. 5. Synthesis and applications. Scenario planning allows the development of key visions for the future. These can be used to establish, and influence, the direction of future trends and their impacts on the natural environment, particularly in the context of a shifting basis for conservation policy that seeks to enhance ecological resilience. The scenarios are being used within NE to help local communities shape the future of their natural environment; this process can be utilised by governments or environmental agencies elsewhere. This study demonstrates that across a range of scenarios the future state of the natural environment is very much a matter of societal choice. Decision-making frameworks for environmental conservation must take proper account of ecological knowledge, societal values, foresight and complexity.

Strategic Management of Forensic Laboratory Resources: From Project FORESIGHT Metrics to the Development of Action Plans

Abstract: The project FORESIGHT stated objectives begin with the development of metrics applicable to the activity of forensic science laboratories These metrics enable a laboratory to assess how they fit within the forensic science industry and offer a glance at the levels of performance that they might be able to achieve FORESIGHT's mission goes on to state the intent for laboratories to use those measurements to “preserve what works, and change what does not” (Houck et al 2009, p 85) This paper addresses the strategic implications of those additional aspects of the FORESIGHT mandate with a view of the strategic planning process for a forensic science laboratory The keys to the development of an ongoing strategic planning and execution process are outlined, and then the actions of one laboratory, Ontario's Centre of Forensic Sciences, are examined to demonstrate the move from metrics to action While there cannot yet be made a claim of “best practices,” this Canadian example offers some guidance to

Futures Studies and Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Principles, Methodology and Research Questions

Abstract: Futures studies are the scientific study of possible, desirable, and probable future developments and scope for design, as well as the conditions for these in the past and in the present. Modern futures studies assume that the future is not entirely determinable and that different future developments (‘futures’) are possible and there is scope for design. They are based on the realization that there are indeed a great number of possible futures but that these are not arbitrary. The term ‘Future-oriented Technology Analysis’ refers to potent changes and challenges for futures studies at the interface of technological change with increasingly science-based innovation, attention to societal issues and concerns. Futures Studies and Future-oriented Technology analysis are concerned with complex dynamic systems and processes and engage multiple stakeholders in participatory and interdisciplinary processes to assure distributed understanding and sustainable development. The article discusses principles and context of Futures studies and Futures analyses methodology. It puts forward five core research lines to outline Futures studies contribution to addressing issues in the research area of Internet & Society.

Future of the Finnish engineering education : a collaborative stakeholder approach

Abstract: The dissertation sheds light on how to develop the Finnish engineering education to face the anticipated challenges of the future based primarily on the views of the key stakeholders. The research questions are: What kind of a framework can be developed for selecting participants for a group communication process of key stakeholders when aiming at capturing future prospects and enhancing development of engineering education nationally, in this case in the context of Finland (RQ 1)? What are the future prospects and development proposals for the Finnish engineering education based on the views of the key stakeholders on the past, present and future, as well as literature and statistics describing the long-term development and present (RQ 2)? The study can be regarded as a strategic prospective foresight study, the subsequent focus being on option and commitment reasonability. The primary sources of knowledge are three stakeholder group communication processes: an anonymous Argument Delphi, an Open Futures Search event, and the work process of the National Collaboration Group for the Finnish Engineering Education. The theoretical discussion for developing the participant selection framework consists of stakeholder concept and identification, creation of knowledge, and member and group characteristics. By combining this with empirical experiences gathered during stakeholder processes, the researcher develops a framework for participant selection. The key findings of the study regarding future prospects of the Finnish engineering education and key proposals for action are summarized in eight statements. The researcher argues that the most severe skills shortages of engineering graduates compared to future needs are in collaborative learning skills. The study contains a proposal for a conceptual model for enhancing the collaborative learning skills of graduates. The study suggests that face-to-face group communication has potential for providing several benefits over anonymous group communication in futures studies. The researcher claims that the most important advantage is the possibility to mobilize both individualand collective-driven social learning cycles through face-to-face dialogue that enables grasping of tacit knowledge, and through presencing the emerging self-transcending knowledge. However, because of the problem of groupthink, the researcher maintains that anonymous group communication is a useful additional tool in initiating change and bringing potentially conflicting and delicate issues up to discussion, and thereby improving identification of different options for the future. The research contribution of the study is three-fold. First, the results of the study have high practical value for the development of the Finnish engineering education. Second, the framework developed for participant selection and the experiences gathered during the three group communication processes with stakeholders, are useful in developing engineering education also outside Finland. Third, the researcher contributes to the development of futures research methodologies by discussing the differences in knowledge creation between anonymous and face-to-face group communication methodologies.

Positioning technology development in the South African construction industry : a technology foresight study : technical paper

Abstract: Internationally infrastructure is ageing rapidly and there is increased utilisation of infrastructure due to urbanisation and globalisation. Significant amounts are invested globally to address this issue, although funding fluctuates from year to year. One response to this situation is to position the construction industry with advanced technological solutions. However, the construction industry is renowned for low levels of innovation and the South African government has also underfunded research into infrastructure. There is a need to stimulate innovation in the construction industry to develop the uniquely South African technological solutions required to provide and maintain economic and social infrastructure. An investment in construction innovation should be based on a review of the current state of construction technology and the industry and an analysis of the drivers and trends that will shape the future construction industry landscape. Technology foresight studies are recognised as one way to determine the future factors that will influence a specific economic sector. This article describes a new approach to conducting a technology foresight study within the South African construction industry. The methodology, as well as initial results from it, is reported. A review is provided of the current state of the construction industry and its potential drivers and trends. Future work will include scenario development and the development of pathways and interventions to take the industry forward from its current position to a desired future state.