Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2013"

The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight: Insights from an Empirical Study on Large European Companies

Abstract: This paper focuses on exploring the potential and empirically observable value creation of strategic foresight activities in firms. We first review the literature on strategic foresight, innovation management and strategic management in order to identify the potential value contributions. We use survey data from 77 large multinational firms to assess how much value is generated from formalized strategic foresight practices in these firms. We show that it is possible to capture value through an enhanced capacity to perceive change, an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change, influencing other actors, and through an enhanced capacity for organizational learning.

City futures : exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Abstract: Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Abstract: Based on the ideas of systems thinking, the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) proposes a framework for designing and implementing Foresight activities. This framework recognises the complexities that emerge due to multifaceted interplays between the Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems. To conducting Foresight systemically, we need to undertake a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, in which systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood and modelled, and hopefully intervened in, for a successful change programme. These experiments are conducted in a series of iterative phases that we label (1) Intelligence (scoping, surveying and scanning phase) (2) Imagination (creative and diverging phase), (3) Integration (ordering and converging phase), (4) Interpretation (strategy phase), (5) Intervention (action phase), and (6) Impact (evaluation phase); (7) an Interaction phase (participation) goes on throughout the activity. The paper describes each of the phases and proposes a set of quantitative and qualitative methods, which can be combined to form research, policy, technology, and innovation paths. The ideas discussed in the light of two Systemic Foresight cases, dealing with Higher Education and Renewable Energy sectors. SFM was used to provide a methodological orientation for these the Foresight exercises, where a variety of methods were selected and combined in line with the objectives of and available resources for the Foresight exercises.

Looking past yesterday's tomorrow: using futures studies methods to extend the research horizon

Abstract: Doing research is, in part, an act of foresight. Even though it is not explicit in many projects, we especially value research that is still relevant five, ten or more years after it is completed. However, published research in the field of interactive computing (and technology research in general) often lacks evidence of systematic thinking about the long-term impacts of current trends. For example, trends on an exponential curve change much more rapidly than intuition predicts. As a result, research may accidentally emphasize near-term thinking. When thinking about the future is approached systematically, we can critically examine multiple potential futures, expand the set of externalities under consideration, and address both negative and positive forecasts of the future. The field of Futures Studies provides methods that can support analysis of long-term trends, support the identification of new research areas and guide design and evaluation. We survey methods for futuristic thinking and discuss their relationship to Human Computer Interaction. Using the sustainability domain an example, we present a case study of a Futures Studies approach - the Delphi Method. We show how Futures Studies can be incorporated into Human Computer Interaction and highlight future work such as rethinking the role of externalities in the validation process.

Futures Clinique—method for promoting futures learning and provoking radical futures

Abstract: This paper introduces, illustrates and evaluates the concept of Futures Clinique, which is a participatory and exploratory futures workshop and a collective futures research method to tackle uncertainties, identify disruptions and generate innovations. The Futures Clinique aims at (a) promoting futures thinking, futures preparedness and provocative futures dialogue, and at (b) harnessing collaborative creativity for insights, innovative ideas and practical solutions to the selected futures topics. Examples from certain Futures Cliniques are also presented. Futures Clinique has proved in several exercises to work as a promising tool for collaborative foresight efforts in various organisations. For futures studies, it offers an innovative, visually orientated and structured method for promoting collective futures learning, with a special emphasis on anticipation of surprising futures or Black Swans. A promising solution is to incorporate social media into the concept and use crowdsourcing in the analysis of the mass of ideas collected.

Sectoral foresight in Poland: thematic and methodological analysis

Abstract: The aim of the paper is to propose a qualitative framework to the analysis of the Polish foresight projects based on the grounded theory. The dimensions of the analysis are: type of industry, aims and expected results, stakeholders, geographical distribution, time frame and the research horizon, applied methods, budget and funding sources. The study is supplemented by the findings on the foresight projects' impact on policy. Furthermore, the work sets the Polish sectoral foresights against the background of similar projects in other European countries. Based on the study the authors draw conclusions on the current and the potential future role of foresight studies in the development of the knowledge-based economy in Poland.

Iran Health System Reform Plan Methodology

Abstract: Background: The Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, along with the country movement towards achievements of Iran's Vision 2025 put compilation of the health system reform plan on its agenda. In this article, we are trying to show the method we used for developing this plan and how this method considered the general condition of the country along with maintaining the standards of scientific and technical programs. All steps of this planning are described in the paper and finally we discuss the techniques and the appropriateness of the method compare with the experience of the other countries.

Horizon scanning for environmental foresight: a review of issues and approaches

Abstract: Natural resource management organizations carry out a range of activities to examine possible future conditions and trends as part of their planning process, but the distinct approach of formal horizon scanning is often a missing component of strategic thinking and strategy development in these organizations. Horizon scanning is a process for finding and interpreting early indications of change in the external environment of an organization or field. Effective horizon scanning serves as an early warning system to identify potential opportunities and threats, enable decisionmakers to plan accordingly and take timely action, and foster a culture of foresight throughout an organization. This paper reviews and discusses the key items needed to create an effective horizon scanning system: conceptual frameworks, organizational approaches, design principles, techniques to improve effectiveness, and techniques for analyzing and interpreting scanning results.

The Futurium—a Foresight Platform for Evidence-Based and Participatory Policymaking

Abstract: This paper presents the Futurium platform used by Digital Futures, a foresight project launched by the European Commission's Directorate General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT). Futurium was initially developed with the primary purpose of hosting and curating visions and policy ideas generated by Digital Futures (Digital Futures was launched in July 2011 by DG CONNECT's Director General Robert Madelin following a prior DG CONNECT exercise called Digital Science.). However, it has turned into a platform on which to experiment with new policymaking models based on scientific evidence and stakeholder participation, referred to in this paper as ‘Policy Making 3.0’. The platform hosts an online foresight toolkit to facilitate the joint creation of ideas to help design future policies. It leverages the potential of social networks, open data, semantic and knowledge mining technologies as well as participatory brainstorming techniques to engage stakeholders and harness their views and creativity to better inform policies that matter to them. The Futurium distinguishes between different variables, reflecting the emotional vs. rational mindsets of the participants, and offers the possibility to frame the engagement and co-creation process into multiple phases of a workflow. Futurium was developed to support Digital Futures, but its open architecture makes it easily adaptable to any policymaking/decision-making context where thinking ahead, participation, scientific evidence and agility are needed. Futurium is an early prototype implementation of the Policy Making 3.0 model, which is a long-term vision requiring further investigation and experimentation. The Futurium production website can be seen here: ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium.

Scenario planning with integrated quantification : managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building

Abstract: Purpose – This paper makes a case for the benefits of quantified scenarios as a foresight tool for strategic planning. First it aims to set the context of quantification approaches for strategic planning in foresight. Within world models, qualitative scenarios allow for a contingency perspective of the future, however their potential to be linked to strategic planning in corporate foresight is limited. In contrast to complex world models, forecasts on key indicators are easily applied to strategy processes, but lack the necessary capability to recognise uncertainty and decision points. The paper seeks to argue for a new participative and pragmatic approach in order to bridge the gap between the opposing approaches and aims to show how this quantification approach can be integrated with scenario construction on an operational level. Design/methodology/approach – The authors discuss a quantitative scenario process and argue for its suitability to corporate foresight. They then describe a range of leanings f...

Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight

Abstract: Foresight has become an ‘institutional’ activity as more emphasis has been given to the active participation of stakeholders to shape the future of society. As a key element of foresight, participation improves the quality of foresight exercises through the engagement of both scientific and nonscientific knowledge, and stakeholder values and preferences. It is through the participation of stakeholders and a process of dialogue that mutual understanding and learning among participants are achieved, which increases the legitimacy of foresight exercises. The overall aim of this chapter is to strengthen the foresight literature with novel concepts and ideas which are rooted in the participation literature. This will assist foresight researchers and practitioners to better understand various rationales of participation and to determine the type and extent of participation that is desirable for different types of foresight exercises. This objective is largely achieved, initially through a review of the participation literature as a useful input for the current foresight literature, which is also reviewed extensively. The chapter therefore presents a synthesis of the relevant literature, which constitutes a practical reference for foresight practitioners on how to accomplish and sustain participation and dialogue in foresight.

How to police the future: Scanning for scientific and technological innovations which generate potential threats and opportunities in crime, policing and crime reduction

Abstract: This paper, arose from my long-standing involvement in horizon-scanning, technological innovation and crime prevention within Home Office research. It emerged from my work to systematically/rigorously identify future crime risks and prevention opportunities posed by advances in hard science and technology (a need identified by the Police Science and Technology Strategy Group), acknowledging social-science-oriented crime prevention alongside science and technology. I developed the ‘Misdeeds and Security’ framework described here, underpinning it theoretically and practically using my Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity framework for mapping causes of crime and prevention principles. A multidisciplinary group of scientists, social scientists, engineers, forensic scientists, and police used it to review candidate innovations, identify significant ones and report to the Strategy Group. The wider purpose was to ‘alert, motivate and empower’ scientists, technologists and designers to ‘think thief’, to recruit them as ‘scouts’ to spot crime risks/preventive opportunities within their diverse fields and to inform design of new tools and technologies for preventing crime. The Misdeeds and Security framework was incorporated in the reports of the Government Foresight Project ‘Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention’ and I was invited to produce ‘crime scenarios’ for the subsequent ‘Intelligent Infrastructure’ project. The Misdeeds and Security framework now imparts ‘futures’ perspectives to the Design Against Crime Research Centre’s work, supporting its objective to empower designers to 'think thief' by identifying the broad kinds of crime risk facing their products.

The future role of logistics for global wealth – scenarios and discontinuities until 2025

Abstract: Purpose – The aim is to present research results on global logistics scenarios 2025 with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted within the scope of an interdisciplinary foresight conference, where a group of 216 renowned persons from 16 countries in business, academia and politics discussed policies and strategies for the future role of logistics as an enabler and driver of global wealth. Attendants were asked to share their visions of the future via a real-time Delphi study. The results were further discussed in futures workshops according to World Cafe methodology for group dialog. Findings – Based on extensive desk research of scenario studies, expert workshops, and creative sessions, the authors developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025. Experts were asked to rate the projection's probability, impact, and desirability as well as to provide rea...

Meta-level terrorism futures : constructing and deconstructing using causal layered analysis

Abstract: Focused on the alternative futures of terrorism, this study engages with the different levels of terrorism knowledge to identify and challenge the restrictive narratives that define terrorism: that "society must be defended" from the "constant and evolving terrorist threat". Using Causal Layered Analysis to deconstruct and reconstruct strategies, alternative scenarios emerge. These alternative futures are depicted collectively as a maze, highlighting the prospect of navigating towards preferred and even shared terrorism futures, once these are supported by new and inclusive metaphors and stakeholder engagement.

When Black Swans Aren't: On Better Recognition, Assessment, and Forecasting of Large Scale, Large Impact, and Rare Event Change

Abstract: The article discusses professional best practice implications stemming from differing varieties of thinking about black swans. The possibilities of rare event recognition in general, and the conforming limits on the forecasting art that arise from different views of possibilities is addressed. In particular, assessing how different philosophical groundings partner with methodological and practice implications to shape and limit practice possibilities is highlighted. Opportunities for securing comparative advantages-individual, organizational, and societal-are revealed by introducing holistic methods for better recognizing, assessing, and managing emerging large scale, large impact, rare events thought by most people to be unpredictable black swans. To achieve this, the article uses mainstream model and analyst failure dynamics to develop a way to better recognize and time large scale, large impact rare event emergence. As part of this discussion, the article assesses the philosophical and factual bases of Nassim Taleb's famous book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, and argues that strong-version black swan perspectives (views that meaningful forecasting is not possible in an essentially chaotic world where rare black swans shape reality) are significantly responsible for placing unreal limits on the very possibilities of improving professional best practices, they being grounded in philosophical traditions that needlessly constrain better training, and competent risk assessment and futures forecasting.IntroductionBelief systems guide behavior and shape professional practice (Pinker, 2003), especially taught views about best practices, and consequently influence individual, organizational, and societal effectiveness. Worse than not knowing how to do something within an admittedly complicated, changing world is believing that it cannot be done, behaving accordingly, and then building up societal and professional systems and "best practices" upon false foundations. That is the summary effect, this article argues, of strong varieties of black swan thinking, particularly Nassim Taleb's influential version (Taleb, 2007), wherein it is argued on philosophical grounds that the future cannot be forecast, and especially that large impact, large scale, rare events (LSLIRE)1 and their implications, cannot be foreseen.The world, and change within it, such people argue, is simply too complex, too random, too chaotic to forecast. Because of this, the realm of the possible and of best practice is shaped in very particular philosophically constrained ways. Both quantitative, including statistical, and qualitative foresight and forecasting methods are chimeras: impossible to rely on tools, especially for LSLIRE foresight (Taleb, 2007). Success is luck,2 forecasting expertise, like the teaching of risk assessment and futures forecasting, is fraud, selfdelusion, or foolishness, while the best way to organize society involves building up resilience in the face of the unforeseeable and learning to "benefit from disorder" (Taleb, 2012; Milner, 2012). Indeed, strong-view black swan proponents maintain that society needs to be reorganized around a black swan-based philosophically grounded opinion: "Some make the mistake of thinking that I hoped to see us develop better methods of predicting black swans To deal with black swans, we instead need things that gain from volatility, variability, stress and disorder" (Taleb, 2012).This strong version of black swan centrality is argued even as normal-range event forecasters - recently Nate Silver (2012) - correctly forecast each states' electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. presidential election and crisis (LSLIRE) event forecasters actually do correctly foresee and forecast emergences, including events that Taleb labels as unpredictable black swans.Alternatively, if, philosophically speaking, events commonly labeled as unpredictable black swans, with their implications, can often be recognized, assessed, and sometimes even managed, and if, more broadly, emerging futures, including LSLIREs, can be forecast, then how professionals teach, do, and evaluate best practices in actuarial science, insurance, political economics, risk management, business, government, and other professions concerned with knowing the future can be improved. …

Global Knowledge Futures: Articulating the Emergence of a New Meta-level Field 1

Abstract: In this paper I articulate a new meta-level field of studies that I call global knowledge futures—a field through which other emerging transdisciplinary fields can be integrated to cohere knowledge at a higher level. I contrast this with the current dominant knowledge paradigm of the global knowledge economy with its fragmentation, commodification and instrumentalism based on neoliberal knowledge capitalism. I take a big-picture, macrohistorical lens to the new thinking and new knowledge patterns that are emerging within the evolution of consciousness discourse. I explore three discourses: postformal studies, integral studies and planetary studies 3 —using a fourth discourse, futures studies, to provide a macro-temporal framing. By extending the meta-fields of postformal, integral and planetary studies into a prospective future dimension, I locate areas of development where these leading-edge discourses can be brought into closer dialogue with each other. In this meeting point of four boundary-spanning discourses I identify the new meta-level field of global knowledge futures, grounded in human thinking capacities, such as creativity, imagination, dialogue and collaboration.