Showing papers on "Proxy (statistics) published in 2022"

Environmental consequences of fossil fuel in Spain amidst renewable energy consumption: a new insights from the wavelet-based Granger causality approach

Abstract: ABSTRACT By comparing ecological footprint and biocapacity, the load capacity factor follows a given ecological threshold, thus allowing for a thorough study of environmental deterioration. As a result, this research uses the load capacity factor (LCF) as a distinct proxy for ecological deterioration, resulting in a detailed environmental evaluation tool that considers both ecological footprint and biocapacity at the same time. Based on this knowledge, the current research investigates the relationship between load capacity factor (LCF) and fossil fuel (FF), renewable energy (REC), economic complexity (ECI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Spain utilizing a dataset covering the period between 1970Q1 and 2017Q4. We applied the novel wavelet coherence technique to assess the connection and/or causality interrelationship between LCF and the exogenous variables at various frequencies and different timeframes. The outcomes of the wavelet correlation disclosed that: (i) In the short and medium term, REC enhances the quality of the environment; (ii) In the short and medium term, fossil fuels worsen the quality of the environment; (iii) At all frequencies, FDI inflows enhance the quality of the environment; and (iv) In the short, medium and long term, economic complexity hinders the quality of the environment. In addition, the MWC and PWC outcomes are consistent with the wavelet coherence outcomes. Moreover, the wavelet-based Granger causality revealed that all the variables can predict each other at various frequencies.

Clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 lineages compared to BA.1 and Delta in South Africa

Abstract: Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 drove a fifth wave of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. Here, we use the presence/absence of the S-gene target as a proxy for SARS-CoV-2 variant/lineage for infections diagnosed using the TaqPath PCR assay between 1 October 2021 and 26 April 2022. We link national COVID-19 individual-level data including case, laboratory test and hospitalisation data. We assess severity using multivariable logistic regression comparing the risk of hospitalisation and risk of severe disease, once hospitalised, for Delta, BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 infections. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation and severe outcome respectively, BA.4/BA.5-infected individuals had a similar odds of hospitalisation (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 0.98-1.55) and severe outcome (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.41-1.26) compared to BA.1-infected individuals. Newly emerged Omicron lineages BA.4/BA.5 showed similar severity to the BA.1 lineage and continued to show reduced clinical severity compared to the Delta variant.

Clinical severity of Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 compared to BA.1 in South Africa

Abstract: Early data indicated that infection with Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage was associated with a lower risk of hospitalisation and severe illness, compared to Delta infection. Recently, the BA.2 sub-lineage has increased in many areas globally. We aimed to assess the severity of BA.2 infections compared to BA.1 in South Africa. We performed data linkages for (i) national COVID-19 case data, (ii) SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data, and (iii) COVID-19 hospitalisations data, nationally. For cases identified using TaqPath COVID-19 PCR, infections were designated as S-gene target failure (SGTF, proxy for BA.1) or S-gene positive (proxy for BA.2). Disease severity was assessed using multivariable logistic regression models comparing individuals with S-gene positive infection to SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between 1 December 2021 to 20 January 2022. From week 49 (starting 5 December 2021) through week 4 (ending 29 January 2022), the proportion of S-gene positive infections increased from 3% (931/31,271) to 80% (2,425/3,031). The odds of being admitted to hospital did not differ between individuals with S-gene positive (BA.2 proxy) infection compared to SGTF (BA.1 proxy) infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-1.09). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ for individuals with S-gene positive infection compared to SGTF infection (aOR 0.91, 95%CI 0.68-1.22). These data suggest that while BA.2 may have a competitive advantage over BA.1 in some settings, the clinical profile of illness remains similar.

On the Reliability of Coverage-Based Fuzzer Benchmarking

Abstract: Given a program where none of our fuzzers finds any bugs, how do we know which fuzzer is better? In practice, we often look to code coverage as a proxy measure of fuzzer effectiveness and consider the fuzzer which achieves more coverage as the better one. Indeed, evaluating 10 fuzzers for 23 hours on 24 programs, we find that a fuzzer that covers more code also finds more bugs. There is a very strong correlation between the coverage achieved and the number of bugs found by a fuzzer. Hence, it might seem reasonable to compare fuzzers in terms of coverage achieved, and from that derive empirical claims about a fuzzer's superiority at finding bugs. Curiously enough, however, we find no strong agreement on which fuzzer is superior if we compared multiple fuzzers in terms of coverage achieved instead of the number of bugs found. The fuzzer best at achieving coverage, may not be best at finding bugs.

Dnsmos P.835: A Non-Intrusive Perceptual Objective Speech Quality Metric to Evaluate Noise Suppressors

Abstract: Human subjective evaluation is the "gold standard" to evaluate speech quality optimized for human perception. Perceptual objective metrics serve as a proxy for subjective scores. We have recently developed a non-intrusive speech quality metric called Deep Noise Suppression Mean Opinion Score (DNSMOS) using the scores from ITU-T Rec. P.808 [1] subjective evaluation. The P.808 scores reflect the overall quality of the audio clip. ITU-T Rec. P.835 [2] subjective evaluation framework gives the standalone quality scores of speech and background noise in addition to the overall quality. In this work, we train an objective metric based on P.835 human ratings that output 3 scores: i) speech quality (SIG), ii) background noise quality (BAK), and iii) the overall quality (OVRL) of the audio. The developed metric is highly correlated with human ratings, with a Pearson’s Correlation Co-efficient (PCC)=0.94 for SIG and PCC=0.98 for BAK and OVRL. This is the first non-intrusive P.835 predictor we are aware of. DNSMOS P.835 is made publicly available as an Azure service.

The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd

Abstract: Robinhood investors increased their holdings in the March 2020 COVID bear market, indicating an absence of collective panic and margin calls. This steadfastness was rewarded in the subsequent bull market. Despite unusual interest in some “experience” stocks (e.g., cannabis stocks), they tilted primarily toward stocks with high past share volume and dollar-trading volume (themselves mostly big stocks). From mid-2018 to mid-2020, an aggregated crowd consensus portfolio (a proxy for the household-equal-weighted portfolio) had both good timing and good alpha.

The Effect of ESG Performance on Corporate Innovation in China: The Mediating Role of Financial Constraints and Agency Cost

Abstract: The effectiveness of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) performance has been widely discussed and is often linked to corporate financial performance or firm value by academics and practitioners. However, a significant research gap remains unexplored; specifically, prior scholars have ignored path research about the effect of ESG performance on corporate innovation, and they have also ignored the impacts of the heterogeneity of stakeholders. Therefore, taking China’s A-share listed companies as an example, the research applied linear regressions with panel data, using the ESG rating of SynTao Green Finance Agency as a proxy variable of ESG performance. The results show that ESG performance significantly promotes the quantity and quality of corporate innovation and is mediated by alleviating the financial constraints and agency cost. Internal and external governance plays different roles; the higher institutional investors’ attention as an external governance form does not help enterprises improve the quantity and quality of corporate innovation; however, CEO duality as an internal governance form strengthens the effect of ESG performance on corporate innovation. This study provides scientific evidence for the effect and effect path of ESG performance on promoting proactive innovation based on sustainable development in China; furthermore, the study reveals the heterogeneity factors of ESG performance on the innovation effect under stakeholder theory.

Mapping Cancer in Africa: A Comprehensive and Comparable Characterization of 34 Cancer Types Using Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020

Abstract: Objective Cancer incidence and mortality rates in Africa are increasing, yet their geographic distribution and determinants are incompletely characterized. The present study aims to establish the spatial epidemiology of cancer burden in Africa and delineate the association between cancer burden and the country-level socioeconomic status. The study also examines the forecasts of the cancer burden for 2040 and evaluates infrastructure availability across all African countries. Methods The estimates of age, sex, and country-specific incidence and mortality of 34 neoplasms in 54 African countries, were procured from GLOBOCAN 2020. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was employed as a proxy indicator of 5-year survival rates, and the socioeconomic development of each country was measured using its human development index (HDI). We regressed age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and MIR on HDI using linear regression model to determine the relationship between cancer burden and HDI. Maps were generated for each cancer group for each country in Africa. The data about the cancer infrastructure of African countries were extracted from the WHO Cancer Country Profiles. Results In Africa, an estimated 1.1 million new cases [95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) 1.0 – 1.3 million] and 711,429 [611,604 – 827,547] deaths occurred due to neoplasms in 2020. The ASIR was estimated to be 132.1/100,000, varying from 78.4/100,000 (Niger) to 212.5/100,000 (La Réunion) in 2020. The ASMR was 88.8/100,000 in Africa, ranging from 56.6/100,000 in the Republic of the Congo to 139.4/100,000 in Zimbabwe. The MIR of all cancer combined was 0.64 in Africa, varying from 0.49 in Mauritius to 0.78 in The Gambia. HDI had a significant negative correlation with MIR of all cancer groups combined and main cancer groups (prostate, breast, cervical and colorectal). HDI explained 75% of the variation in overall 5-year cancer survival (MIR). By 2040, the burden of all neoplasms combined is forecasted to increase to 2.1 million new cases and 1.4 million deaths in Africa. Conclusion High cancer mortality rates in Africa demand a holistic approach toward cancer control and management, including, but not limited to, boosting cancer awareness, adopting primary and secondary prevention, mitigating risk factors, improving cancer infrastructure and timely treatment.

Risk-Adjusted Mortality Rates as a Quality Proxy Outperform Volume in Surgical Oncology—A New Perspective on Hospital Centralization Using National Population-Based Data

Abstract: Despite a long-known association between annual hospital volume and outcome, little progress has been made in shifting high-risk surgery to safer hospitals. This study investigates whether the risk-standardized mortality rate (RSMR) could serve as a stronger proxy for surgical quality than volume.We included all patients who underwent complex oncologic surgeries in Germany between 2010 and 2018 for any of five major cancer types, splitting the data into training (2010-2015) and validation sets (2016-2018). For each surgical group, we calculated annual volume and RSMR quintiles in the training set and applied these thresholds to the validation set. We studied the overlap between the two systems, modeled a market exit of low-performing hospitals, and compared effectiveness and efficiency of volume- and RSMR-based rankings. We compared travel distance or time that would be required to reallocate patients to the nearest hospital with low-mortality ranking for the specific procedure.Between 2016 and 2018, 158,079 patients were treated in 974 hospitals. At least 50% of high-volume hospitals were not ranked in the low-mortality group according to RSMR grouping. In an RSMR centralization model, an average of 32 patients undergoing complex oncologic surgery would need to relocate to a low-mortality hospital to save one life, whereas 47 would need to relocate to a high-volume hospital. Mean difference in travel times between the nearest hospital to the hospital that performed surgery ranged from 10 minutes for colorectal cancer to 24 minutes for pancreatic cancer. Centralization on the basis of RSMR compared with volume would ensure lower median travel times for all cancer types, and these times would be lower than those observed.RSMR is a promising proxy for measuring surgical quality. It outperforms volume in effectiveness, efficiency, and hospital availability for patients.

Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

Abstract: Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0-2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872-1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930-1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era.

A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract: Abstract. We present a new reconstruction of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature for the Last Glacial Maximum. The method blends model fields and sparse proxy-based point estimates through a data assimilation approach. Our reconstruction updates that of Annan and Hargreaves (2013), using the full range of general circulation model (GCM) simulations which contributed to three generations of the PMIP database, three major compilations of gridded sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) estimates from proxy data, and an improved methodology based on an ensemble Kalman filter. Our reconstruction has a global annual mean surface air temperature anomaly of -4.5±0.9 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial climate. This is slightly colder than the previous estimate of Annan and Hargreaves (2013), with an upwards revision on the uncertainty due to different methodological assumptions. It is, however, substantially less cold than the recent reconstruction of Tierney et al. (2020). We show that the main reason for this discrepancy is in the choice of prior. We recommend the use of the multi-model ensemble of opportunity as potentially offering a credible prior, but it is important that the range of models included in the PMIP ensembles represent the main sources of uncertainty as realistically and comprehensively as practicable if they are to be used in this way.

A century of labour turnover research: A systematic literature review

Abstract: Labour turnover has been an important research topic in social science over the past century, involving disciplines such as human resource management, industrial relations, organizational behaviour, individual and organizational psychology, economics and health sciences. This paper presents a systematic literature review of voluntary labour turnover, providing an in-depth analysis of 1375 labour turnover studies published up to July 2019 in 142 academic journals listed in the Chartered Association of Business Schools Academic Journal Guide 2018. The analysis of theoretical and empirical labour turnover studies reveals: (1) distinctive foci in the development of labour turnover research over the past hundred years; (2) relative lack of attention to testing specific labour turnover theories; (3) a prevailing quantitative approach to identifying antecedents of labour turnover; (4) increased reliance on turnover intention as a proxy for actual turnover. This paper highlights these trends over time, providing insight into problematic areas from theoretical, methodological and empirical points of view. We suggest avenues for a more productive route to coherent theoretical, methodological and empirical development of labour turnover research.

Twitter and Facebook posts about COVID-19 are less likely to spread misinformation compared to other health topics

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic brought widespread attention to an “infodemic” of potential health misinformation. This claim has not been assessed based on evidence. We evaluated if health misinformation became more common during the pandemic. We gathered about 325 million posts sharing URLs from Twitter and Facebook during the beginning of the pandemic (March 8-May 1, 2020) compared to the same period in 2019. We relied on source credibility as an accepted proxy for misinformation across this database. Human annotators also coded a subsample of 3000 posts with URLs for misinformation. Posts about COVID-19 were 0.37 times as likely to link to “not credible” sources and 1.13 times more likely to link to “more credible” sources than prior to the pandemic. Posts linking to “not credible” sources were 3.67 times more likely to include misinformation compared to posts from “more credible” sources. Thus, during the earliest stages of the pandemic, when claims of an infodemic emerged, social media contained proportionally less misinformation than expected based on the prior year. Our results suggest that widespread health misinformation is not unique to COVID-19. Rather, it is a systemic feature of online health communication that can adversely impact public health behaviors and must therefore be addressed.

Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

Abstract: Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0-2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872-1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930-1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era.

Adaptive proxy-based sliding mode control for a class of second-order nonlinear systems and its application to pneumatic muscle actuators

Abstract: The human-centered robotic systems demand safe and robust controllers in many applications. This paper proposes an adaptive proxy-based sliding mode control approach for a class of typical second-order nonlinear systems. A new PID-type virtual coupling is designed between a virtual proxy and the physical object. Considering the unknown bound of lumped disturbances, an adaptation law is applied to online adjust the gain of a sign function which ensures the proxy to track the reference accurately. By using the Lyapunov theorem, the closed-loop system stability is proved. Both simulations and experiments are conducted to verify the proposed method based on a real-world pneumatic muscle actuator control platform. The results show that the proposed adaptive proxy-based sliding mode control approach presents better tracking accuracy, safety, and robustness than the conventional PID control and sliding mode control.

The dark side of energy poverty: Who is underconsuming in Spain and why?

Abstract: The traditional energy poverty ‘objective’ metrics are mostly focused on households spending a disproportionate share of income on energy. Nevertheless, vulnerable people could also restrict their energy consumption and this ‘hidden energy poverty’ is not sufficiently considered in metrics and policies. This paper investigates this phenomenon and proposes a new methodology to determine an absolute threshold below which households’ actual energy expenditures are too low to meet their required energy needs. Thereafter, an income criterion is introduced as a proxy to exclude households that have low energy expenditures for reasons other than lack of affordability. Finally, this article analyses the sensitivity of results to the assumptions made for the absolute energy expenditure threshold and the income threshold, thus presenting an alternative ‘adjusted to reality’ scenario. The results for the Spanish case study show that, in 2019, 45% of households had low absolute energy expenditures, but only 56% of these (25% of the total households) were suffering from hidden energy poverty. Besides, the average annual ‘energy poverty gap’ per household was €374, and the national budget needed to potentially fill this gap was €1,692 m. Moreover, there was a broad regional disparity depending on climatology and income, and several key factors have been identified, i.e. household size, housing’s energy efficiency and tenure, and locality’s degree of urbanisation. Thus, the macro-level analysis carried out in this paper makes it possible to characterise hidden energy poverty in Spain, and the policy recommendations provided might guide policymakers to target assistance programs more effectively.

The Gender-Differential Effect of Financial Inclusion on Household Financial Resilience

Abstract: Abstract This paper applies the kernel propensity score matching difference-in-differences method to examine gender-differential effects of financial inclusion on household financial resilience, using repeated cross-sectional data from two successive large-scale surveys of Ghanaian households. Applying standardised indices for financial inclusion and financial resilience, we find that financial inclusion significantly improves household financial resilience. Results from gender and locality disaggregated analyses suggest that the effect of financial inclusion on household resilience does not significantly vary by gender or locality. Results from different measures of financial inclusion show that savings and formal account ownership yield more pronounced resilience effect, with mobile money (m-money) exerting the least impact. Remittances via m-money – sending and receiving (a proxy for social capital) – provide significant financial resilience effects, with generally stronger effects in rural than in urban areas, especially for females.

The utility of intention as a proxy for sustainable buying behavior – A necessary condition analysis

Abstract: Sustainable buying behavior has increasingly received attention from academia and practitioners alike. While research in this field commonly relies on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), previous studies have not been able to clarify the utility of purchase intention as a proxy for sustainable buying behavior and systematically neglect the role of social sustainability aspects. To advance the theoretical understanding of sustainable consumption, we investigate buying behavior with regard to the sustainable clothing purchases of 2000 consumers in Germany using necessary condition analysis (NCA). The results empirically confirm the utility of intention as a proxy for sustainable buying behavior. Further, we find that social concerns and the perceived knowledge of social issues are essential drivers of purchase intention. In addition to extending the theoretical understanding of the roles of intention and social aspects in the TPB framework, we derive practical implications for managers seeking to facilitate sustainable consumption.