Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 2004"

Strategic Decision Making: Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: Strategic Decision Makingprovides an effective, formal methodology that provides help with decision making problems, especially strategic ones with high stakes involving human perceptions and judgements. Focusing on applying the AHP to decision-making problems, Strategic Decision Making covers problems in the realms of business, defence and governance. Using case studies drawn from years of experience, the book discusses decision making for real life problems and includes many worked examples and solutions to problems throughout. The reader will gain comprehensive exposure to the extent of assistance that a formal methodology, such as AHP, can provide to the decision maker in evolving decisions in complex and varied domains.

An empirical investigation of decision-making satisfaction in web-based decision support systems

Abstract: Web-based information systems are increasingly being used for decision support applications. However, few empirical studies have been conducted on web-based decision support systems (DSS). This experimental research endeavors to understand factors that impact decision-making satisfaction in web-based decision support systems. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) approach, the analysis reveals that information quality and system quality influence decision-making satisfaction, while information presentation does not have an effect on decision-making satisfaction.

Automation Bias in Intelligent Time Critical Decision Support Systems

Abstract: Various levels of automation can be introduced by intelligent decision support systems, from fully automated, where the operator is completely left out of the decision process, to minimal levels of automation, where the automation only makes recommendations and the operator has the final say. For rigid tasks that require no flexibility in decision-making and with a low probability of system failure, higher levels of automation often provide the best solution. However, in time critical environments with many external and changing constraints such as air traffic control and military command and control operations, higher levels of automation are not advisable because of the risks and the complexity of both the system and the inability of the automated decision aid to be perfectly reliable. Human-in-the-loop designs, which employ automation for redundant, manual, and monotonous tasks and allow operators active participation, provide not only safety benefits, but also allow a human operator and a system to respond more flexibly to uncertain and unexpected events. However, there can be measurable costs to human performance when automation is used, such as loss of situational awareness, complacency, skill degradation, and automation bias. This paper will discuss the influence of automation bias in intelligent decision support systems, particularly those in aviation domains. Automation bias occurs in decision-making because humans have a tendency to disregard or not search for contradictory information in light of a computer-generated solution that is accepted as correct and can be exacerbated in time critical domains. Automated decision aids are designed to reduce human error but actually can cause new errors in the operation of a system if not designed with human cognitive limitations in mind.

Nurses, information use, and clinical decision making—the real world potential for evidence-based decisions in nursing

Abstract: Nurses have probably always known that their decisions have important implications for patient outcomes. Increasingly, however, they are being cast in the role of active decision makers in healthcare by policy makers and other members of the healthcare team. In the UK, for example, the Chief Nursing Officer recently outlined 10 key tasks for nurses as part of the National Health Service’s modernisation agenda and the breaking down of artificial boundaries between medicine and nursing.1 As well, nurses are expected to access, appraise, and incorporate research evidence into their professional judgment and clinical decision making.2 This active engagement with research evidence is the focus of this paper. We will explore why it is necessary to consider the clinical decision making context when examining the ways in which nurses engage with research based information. We will also consider the relation between the accessibility and usefulness of information from different sources and the decisions to which such information is applied. Finally, we will argue that if we are to encourage nurses to actively engage with research evidence during clinical decision making, we need to better understand the relation between the decisions that nurses make and the knowledge that informs them. In this paper, we draw heavily on the findings of 2 major studies conducted at the University of York between 1997 and 2002.3–,9 2 case studies were conducted in 3 geographical areas with different hospital types, population characteristics, and levels of health service provision. We purposively sampled participants according to a sampling frame constructed around variables deemed to be theoretically significant for clinical decision making.7 Data collection comprised 200 indepth interviews with nurses and managers; 400 hours of non-participant observation of “decision making and information use in action”; 4000 practice based documents audited for characteristics such …

Shared medical decision making: problems, process, progress.

Abstract: IT IS EASY TO MARCH BEHIND THE BANNER OF SHARED MEDIcal decision making. Sharing with a patient who faces tough choices when he or she is ill is one of the true gifts of being in the medical profession. The patientphysician relationship is the sacrosanct epitome of professionalism with the goals of ensuring that patients receive the treatment best for them (science) and that the best treatment is carried out in the most efficient and compassionate manner (quality and safety). However, the concept of shared decision making requires careful consideration of several problems. The first problem is that the term “shared decision” is a misnomer. Consider the example of sharing toys between children: first one child plays, then the toy is passed on to the next child. This concept of sharing in the case of medical decision making between patient and physician, would not be possible. Since words shape concepts, a circular tautology can cause goals to be missed if incorrect words are used to communicate. Specifically, how does a physician really share a decision that involves the patient’s medical care? The misnomer of sharing creates confusion and mollifies a practice of medical care that rewards physicians for making choices for patients. Physicians should never make a choice for a patient—even if the patient wants the physician to do so. Instead, physicians should ensure that the information used in the patient’s decision making is reasonable for the individual patient and that the patient understands the ramifications of choice. The physician should be a navigator, not a pilot. The argument for a change in the process of decision making is based on recognizing that the consequences of a patient’s choice cannot be shared with anyone else. Only the patient will suffer or enjoy the probabilistic outcomes associated with choosing one option over another. Only the patient will know how he or she feels about experiencing an adverse effect of a treatment or a reduced chance of an adverse outcome that a treatment is designed to alter. For example, if the benefit of undergoing a prostatectomy for improving the chance of survival from prostate cancer is worth the increased chance of becoming impotent or incontinent, only the patient will know. Since no one else knows, no one else should decide. Therefore, in medicine shared decision making cannot exist. Some actions in medical care are not really decisions to be made by the patient and, hence, do not require a patient’s input into choice. For example, patients do not need to decide if antibiotics are required for bacterial pneumonia. A rational clinician does not allow sick patients to make decisions about treatments that are of clear value and that do not create significant levels of harm. If the significance of any adverse effect or harm is so minor compared with the benefit gained with treatment, no decision is required. A decision that appropriately involves a patient also requires viable options, and choosing one option over another must engender some element of risk. There has to be a definable trade-off of harm and benefit, or no decision is required. Some acute care treatments or preventive care options do not create these sorts of trade-offs. On the other hand, there are times when neither physicians nor patients should make choices. These situations occur when reasonable estimates for an individual’s benefit and harm associated with options are not available. Shared medical decision making really does not pertain to sharing choices, but rather involves sharing information. In fact, the term “informed medical decision making” is used synonymously with shared medical decision making. Informed medical decision making is a better use of words and may allow some unification or at least organization of the debate about the ideal way medical care decisions should be made. Under the paradigm of informed choice, 2 questions can be asked: how do physicians inform patients about the consequences of the choices they must make, and how do physicians help patients use the information to make the choice? These questions can be answered with 1 solution. Informing patients about choices is the process that allows them to reflect on the potential gains and losses associated with the marginal probabilities of outcomes. Conceptually and procedurally, this process has 2 requirements. The first is that the patient must have something to reflect upon. Some quality of life trade-off can exist only if the difference in the

Participatory multicriteria decision analysis with Web-HIPRE: a case of lake regulation policy

Abstract: Environmental decision making typically concerns several stakeholders with conflicting views. Multicriteria decision analysis provides transparent ways to elicit and communicate individual preferences. When the stakeholders clearly understand each other’s views, a consensus can be reached more easily. Computer software provides a substantial enhancement to support participatory decision making processes, for example, in the preference elicitation and in the analysis of the results. In this paper, we describe the first web-based multicriteria decision support software called Web-HIPRE, and the use of it in participatory environmental modelling. The world wide web provides new possibilities to support the process, for example, by allowing distributed decision support. The stakeholders can be located in different geographical areas, especially in environmental problems. We illustrate the

DSS Effectiveness in Marketing Resource Allocation Decisions: Reality vs. Perception

Abstract: We study the process by which model-based decision support systems (DSSs) influence managerial decision making in the context of marketing budgeting and resource allocation. We focus on identifyingwhether andhow DSSs influence the decision process (e.g., cognitive effort deployed, discussion quality, and decision alternatives considered) and, as a result,how these DSSs influence decision outcomes (e.g., profit and satisfaction both with the decision process and the outcome). We study two specific marketing resource allocation decisions in a laboratory context: sales effort allocation and customer targeting. We find that decision makers who use high-quality, model-based DSSs make objectively better decisions than do decision makers who only have access to a generic decision tool (Microsoft Excel). However, their subjective evaluations (perceptions) of both their decisions and the processes that lead to those decisions do not necessarily improve as a result of DSS use. And expert judges, serving as surrogates for top management, have a difficult time assessing the objective quality of those decisions.Our results suggest that what managers get from a high-quality DSS may be substantially better than what they see. To increase the inclination for managerial adoption and use of DSS, we must get users to "see" the benefits of using a DSS. Our results also suggest two ways to bridge the perception-reality gap: (1) improve the perceived value of the decision process by designing DSSs both to encourage discussion (e.g., by providing explanation and support for alternative recommendations) as well as to reduce the perceived complexity of the problem so that managers invest more cognitive effort in exploring additional options and (2) provide feedback on the likely market/business outcomes of various decision options.

On the origins and development of evidence-based medicine and medical decision making.

Abstract: The aims of this paper are to identify the issues and forces that were the impetus for two recent developments in academic medicine, evidence-based medicine (EBM) and medical decision making (MDM); to make explicit their underlying similarities and differences; and to relate them to the fates of these innovations. Both developments respond to concerns about practice variation; the rapid growth of medical technology, leading to a proliferation of diagnostic and treatment options; the patient empowerment movement; and psychological research that raised questions about the quality of human judgment and decision making. Their commonalities include: use of Bayesian principles in diagnostic reasoning, and the common structure embedded in an answerable clinical question and a decision tree. Major differences include: emphasis on knowledge or judgment as the fundamental problem; the status of formal models and utility assessment; and the spirit and tone of the innovation. These differences have led to broader acceptance of EBM within academic medicine, while decision analysis, the fundamental tool of MDM, has been less welcomed in clinical circles and has found its place in guideline development, cost-effectiveness analysis, and health policy.

Impact of intelligent decision aids on expert and novice decision‐makers’ judgments

Abstract: Businesses have invested tremendous resources into intelligent decision aid development. A good match between user and aid may improve the expert decision-maker’s decision quality. However, novices may be prone to poorer decision-making if intelligent decision aids are more expert than the user. The present paper provides an empirical test of the impact of decision aids on subjects with differential expertise levels. The results support the contention that intelligent decision aids aggravate bias in novices’ decision-making but mitigate bias in experts’ decision-making processes. Intelligent decision aids may be best viewed as complements to expert decision-makers during complex problem analysis and resolution.

Making Better Decision Makers

Abstract: Decision analysis has been used to help solve numerous complex decisions over the last few decades. However, its power as a basis for structuring one's thinking to resolve decisions has barely been tapped. To realize this potential, we in the decision analysis community must train people to think about their decisions using the concepts and principles of decision analysis. In this process, more emphasis must be placed on structuring decisions worth thinking about, and less emphasis must be placed on analyzing structured decisions. This paper outlines what we should do to train people to be better decision makers and why this is important. It includes a description of what we must learn to do this effectively.

Teaching Students to Make Better Decisions About the Environment: Lessons From the Decision Sciences

Abstract: One of the fundamental goals of environmental education (EE) is to equip students with the skills to make more thoughtful decisions about environmental issues. Many examples of environmental and science education curricula work to address this goal by providing students with up-to-date information about a myriad of environmental issues from a variety of scientific disciplines. As noted by previous researchers in EE, an emphasis on scientific information, however, does not help to overcome many of the barriers to improved decision making. To help students become better environmental decision makers, educators must also work to incorporate lessons about decision making in conventional EE curricula. This article provides an overview of findings from the decision sciences and behavioral decision research to highlight some of the most common impediments to high-quality decision making. The authors end with suggestions for curriculum development that might help to improve students' decision-making skills regard...

Decision-making: Theory and practice

Abstract: This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

Transparency of environmental decision making: a case study of soil cleanup inside the Hanford 100 area

Abstract: Environmental decisions in a democracy should be transparent. Transparency allows all those who are interested in a decision to understand what is being decided and why. Transparency is especially critical for decisions that are intended to protect public health and safety, and that have long‐term consequences. Decisions are recorded through publicly available documents (such as Records of Decision), collectively known as the public record. In this paper the transparency of the public record is examined for a specific decision at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. To do this, the concept of transparency is unpacked into seven objectives: clarity, accessibility, integration, logic/rationale, truth/accuracy, openness, and accountability; and a framework for measuring decision transparency is developed. Then a Record of Decision is evaluated based on four of the seven objectives. Throughout, the importance of understanding decision processes and expected outcomes, and the broad values underpinni...

Foreign Policy Decision Making in Familiar and Unfamiliar Settings: An Experimental Study of High-Ranking Military Officers

Abstract: The concept of policy makers’ familiarity with a decision task has received considerable attention in recent years in the literature on decision making by analogy, intuitive decision making, and dynamic versus static decision making. The effect of familiarity on the decision strategy change of high-ranking officers of the U.S. Air Force is tested to see whether and how familiar versus unfamiliar decision tasks affect decision strategy change during the decision-making process. Results support the noncompensatory principle of political decision making and poliheuristic theory: Leaders are sensitive to negative political advice, which is often noncompensatory. They first use dimensions to eliminate noncompensatory alternatives and then evaluate acceptable alternatives. This two-stage process is even more pronounced in unfamiliar decision settings with low or high levels of ambiguity—a situation that characterizes many foreign policy crises.

Decision station: situating decision support systems

Abstract: Internet facilitates access to data, information, and knowledge sources, but at the same time, it threatens to cognitively overload the decision makers. This necessitates the development of effective decision support tools to properly inform the decision process. Internet technologies require new type of decision support that provides tighter integration and higher degree of direct interaction with the problem domain. The central argument of this work is that in dynamic and highly complex electronic environments decision support systems (DSSs) should be situated in the problem domain. A generic architecture, the set of capabilities for our vision of a situated DSS is proposed, and the architecture is illustrated with a DSS for investment management.

Decision support: helping patients and families to find a balance at the end of life.

Abstract: Terminally ill patients and their families face many decisions at the end of life that can sometimes be overwhelming. Nurses play a key role in providing decision support so that patients and their families can make timely decisions about their health care that reflect their individual needs and circumstances. The Ottawa Decision Support Framework can help nurses to assess patients' decision-making needs, provide tailored decision support and evaluate the effect of their interventions. The theoretical underpinnings of the model and its implications for palliative care clinical practice are discussed.

An alternative view of pre-volitional processes in decision making: Conceptual issues and empirical evidence

Abstract: The last twenty years have seen a series of developments within attitude theory that are likely to shape the field in the next decades. Two main approaches to decision making within this field have emerged: automatic and deliberative (Eagly & Chaiken, 1998). These two approaches have been repeatedly sketched in the so-called dual theories, for instance in models of attitude change and persuasive messages (e. both routes are considered as possible, depending on variables such as motivation and ability, as well as in theories where the emphasis has been placed on one of the two approaches, such as the MODE (Motivation and Opportunity as Determinants) model proposed by Fazio (1990) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) developed by Ajzen (1991). In this chapter we will briefly examine the two positions. We will argue that, although recent evidence emphasizes the importance of automatic processes and momentum appears to be with this approach, the automatic approach still falls short from offering a comprehensive view and a satisfactory prediction of behavior. In particular, we will argue that, whereas it is clear that automatic processes play an important role and should be taken into account in any attempt to explain and predict human behaviors, they alone cannot suffice to fully explain behavior. We will then review the mainstream approach within the deliberative camp and identify areas for improvement. The core of this chapter will be on proposing an alternative conceptualization of attitude theory that offers a deeper understanding and improved prediction of prevolitional processes. We also review empirical evidence supporting our conceptualization. Finally, we will discuss possible extensions of the models and future directions of research. Automatic approaches to attitudes The automatic, effortless, and implicit aspects of human information processing are currently at the center of attention in attitude research. Several recent studies have shown that implicit attitudes can be activated automatically and guide behavior directly (e. Fazio & Dunton, 1997). Other studies have found that attitude accessibility moderates the link empirical evidence by proposing that attitudes that are automatically accessed, via strength of the object-evaluation association, bias perceptions of the object and lead directly to behavior without any conscious reasoning processes occurring (Fazio, 1990). Still other studies have emphasized implicit attitudes that are thought to direct people's reactions to attitude objects outside of automatic processes play an important role in human cognition and that they can direct behavior even when it is …

Psychological Investigations of Competence in Decision Making

Abstract: This book opens up new directions in judgment and decision making research. Our society and academic research have largely neglected the fact that sound judgment and decision making are the crux of ...

The Influence of National Culture on the Level and Outcome of IS Development Decisions

Abstract: Would the outcome of a Global multinational organization's decision be the same if the same decision were to be made in different countries throughout the world? Within the same organization, we propose that national cultural differences can influence decision making in different countries and cultural clusters Elile much work has been done on organizational cultural influences, this study examines the influence that national culture has on organizational decision making in respect to the evolution/redevelopment decision that organizations may face at a point in time Building on findings from the GLOBE research program, we show by empirical testing of a theoretical model that national cultural dimensions are significantly associated with a, the outcome of the decision to enhance or re-develop a system, and b, the organizational level at which such decisions are made This research is significant as a means to improve management decision making, particularly with regard to the enhancement versus redevelopment decision The research suggests that a relatively uniform sub-culture exists across the global IS project level but that national cultural dimensions play a more important role in determining the organizational management level at which decisions are made Our analysis also suggests that technical factors, Upper case tools and platform, carry more influence in the outcome of the decision at the project level, ie, development or enhancemenl) However, human factors, national cultural dimensions, were seen to be more important at the management level, ie, where the decision was made)

Information technology in watershed management decision making

Abstract: Watershed management decision making is a complex process. Cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders is required while balancing biophysical and socioeconomic concerns. The public is taking part in environmental decisions, and the need for technology transfer from public agencies to stakeholders is increasing. Information technology has had a profound influence on watershed management over the past decade. Advances in data acquisition through remote sensing, data utilization through geographic information systems (GIS), and data sharing through the Internet have provided watershed managers access to more information for management decisions. In the future, applications incorporating hydrologic simulation models, GIS, and decision support systems will be deployed through the Internet. In addition to challenges in making complex modeling technology available to diverse audiences, new information technology issues, such as interoperability, Internet access, and security, are introduced when GIS, simulation models, and decision support systems are integrated in an Internet environment. This paper presents a review of current use of information technology in watershed management decision making and a discussion of issues created when developing Internet based, integrated watershed management decision support systems. A prototype spatial decision support system (SDSS) for rangeland watershed management was developed using web services, which are components that communicate using text based messages, thus eliminating proprietary protocols. This new framework provides an extensible, accessible, and interoperable approach for SDSS.

User satisfaction with system,decision process,and outcome in GDSS based meeting: an experimental investigation

Abstract: Performance of groups using group decision support systems (GDSS) has been an issue debated over the last two decades. Yet, there is need for more focused research on subjective variables such as the satisfaction of team members with the experience of using a GDSS. This research focuses on different types of user satisfaction in GDSS based meetings: system satisfaction, process satisfaction, and outcome satisfaction; and explores interrelationships among them. The findings from a laboratory experiment demonstrate that group members? satisfaction with system impacts the satisfaction with decision process and outcome. Satisfaction with decision outcome is also influenced by satisfaction with decision making process. Another interesting set of findings is the relationships between performance of groups members engaged in GDSS based meetings and their satisfaction with system, process, and outcome. Decision time has negative effect on system satisfaction and positive effect on process satisfaction. Thoroughness of decision making has positive effect on outcome satisfaction. The findings of the research have major implications for planners and facilitators of GDSS based meetings.