Ian S. Pearse

TL;DR: Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty, level of ecological organisation, and organismal properties on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons and demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability.

TL;DR: This work explores how masting is affected by plant resource budgets, fruit maturation success, and hormonal coordination of cues including weather and resources and concludes that RB and EOS models are not alternative explanations for masting - both are required.

TL;DR: Interactions between introduced plants and their herbivores are driven independently by traits that track plant phylogeny and leaf traits that likely affect herbivore performance.

TL;DR: This work provides a rubric that model developers can use to communicate a model’s attributes and its appropriate uses, and highlights how species distribution models have been used to design surveys for new populations, inform spatial prioritization decisions for management actions, and support regulatory decision-making and compliance.

TL;DR: This work combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America, highlighting that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.