Showing papers by "Jim Haywood published in 2012"

In situ observations of volcanic ash clouds from the FAAM aircraft during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010

Abstract: [1] During April–May 2010 the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 aircraft flew 12 flights targeting volcanic ash clouds around the UK. The aircraft observed ash layers between altitudes of 2–8 km with peak mass concentrations typically between 200–2000μg/m3, as estimated from a Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS). A peak value of 2000–5000 μg/m3 was observed over Scotland on 14 May 2010, although with considerable uncertainty due to the possible contamination by ice. Aerosol size distributions within ash clouds showed a fine mode (0.1–0.6 μm) associated with sulphuric acid and/or sulphate, and a coarse mode (0.6–35 μm) associated with ash. The ash mass was dominated by particles in the size range 1–10 μm (volume-equivalent diameter), with a peak typically around 3–5μm. Electron-microscope images and scattering patterns from the SID-2H (Small Ice Detector) probe showed the highly irregular shape of the ash particles. Ash clouds were also accompanied by elevated levels of SO2 (10–100 ppbv), strong aerosol scattering (50–500 × 10−6 m−1), and low Angstrom exponents (−0.5 to 0.4) from the 3-wavelength nephelometer. Coarse-mode mass specific aerosol extinction coefficients (kext), based on the CAS size distribution varied from 0.45–1.06 m2/g. A representative value of 0.6 m2/g is suggested for distal ash clouds (∼1000 km downwind) from this eruption.

Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Abstract: [1] During the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, improvements were made to the modeling procedure at the Met Office, UK, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method, its rationale and how it evolved over time in response to new information and user requirements. The change from solely forecasting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations required consideration of volcanic ash emission rates, the fraction of ash surviving near-source fall-out, and the relationship between predicted mean and local peak ash concentrations unresolved by the model. To validate the modeling procedure, predicted peak ash concentrations are compared against observations obtained by ground-based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison between modeled and observed peak concentrations highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. A significant improvement in the agreement between modeled and observed values is seen if a buffer zone, accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud, is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g., the plume height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source specification have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

A case study of observations of volcanic ash from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption: 1. In situ airborne observations

Abstract: On 17 May 2010, the FAAM BAe-146 aircraft made remote and in situ measurements of the volcanic ash cloud from EyjafjallajA�¶kull over the southern North Sea. The Falcon 20E aircraft operated by Deutsches Zentrum fA�¼r Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) also sampled the ash cloud on the same day. While no A¢Â�Â�wingtip-to-wingtipA¢Â�Â� co-ordination was performed, the proximity of the two aircraft allows worthwhile comparisons. Despite the high degree of inhomogeneity (e.g., column ash loadings varied by a factor of three over �100 km) the range of ash mass concentrations and the ratios between volcanic ash mass and concentrations of SO2, O3 and CO were consistent between the two aircraft and within expected instrumental uncertainties. The data show strong correlations between ash mass, SO2 concentration and aerosol scattering with the FAAM BAe-146 data providing a specific extinction coefficient of 0.6A¢Â�Â�0.8 m2 g�1. There were significant differences in the observed ash size distribution with FAAM BAe-146 data showing a peak in the mass at �3.5 mm (volume-equivalent diameter) and DLR data peaking at �10 mm. Differences could not be accounted for by refractive index and shape assumptions alone. The aircraft in situ and lidar data suggest peak ash concentrations of 500A¢Â�Â�800 mg m�3 with a factor of two uncertainty. Comparing the location of ash observations with the ash dispersion model output highlights differences that demonstrate the difficulties in forecasting such events and the essential nature of validating models using high quality observational data from platforms such as the FAAM BAe-146 and the DLR Falcon.

A case study of observations of volcanic ash from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption: 2. Airborne and satellite radiative measurements

Abstract: [1] An extensive set of airborne and satellite observations of volcanic ash from the Eyjafjallajokull Icelandic eruption are analyzed for a case study on 17 May 2010. Data collected from particle scattering probes and backscatter lidar on the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 aircraft allow estimates of ash concentration to be derived. Using radiative transfer simulations we show that airborne and satellite infrared radiances can be accurately modeled based on the in situ measured size distribution and a mineral dust refractive index. Furthermore, airborne irradiance measurements in the 0.3–1.7 μm range are well modeled with these properties. Retrievals of ash mass column loading using Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) observations are shown to be in accord with lidar-derived mass estimates, giving for the first time an independent verification of a hyperspectral ash variational retrieval method. The agreement of the observed and modeled solar and terrestrial irradiances suggests a reasonable degree of radiative closure implying that the physical and optical properties of volcanic ash can be relatively well constrained using data from state-of-the-science airborne platforms such as the FAAM BAe 146 aircraft. Comparisons with IASI measurements during recent Grimsvotn and Puyehue volcanic eruptions demonstrate the importance of accurately specifying the refractive index when modeling the observed spectra.

Sea-spray geoengineering in the HadGEM2-ES earth-system model: radiative impact and climate response

Abstract: . The radiative impact and climate effects of geoengineering using sea-spray aerosols have been investigated in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using a fully prognostic treatment of the sea-spray aerosols and also including their direct radiative effect. Two different emission patterns were considered, one to maximise the direct effect in clear skies, the other to maximise the indirect effects of the sea-spray on low clouds; in both cases the emissions were limited to 10% of the ocean area. While the direct effect was found to be significant, the indirect effects on clouds were much more effective in reducing global mean temperature as well as having less of an impact on global mean precipitation per unit temperature reduction. The impact on the distribution of precipitation was found to be similar in character, but less in degree, to that simulated by a previous study using a much simpler treatment of this geoengineering process.

Airborne measurements of trace gases and aerosols over the London metropolitan region

Abstract: The Emissions around the M25 motorway (EM25) campaign took place over the megacity of London in the United Kingdom in June 2009 with the aim of characterising trace gas and aerosol composition and properties entering and emitted from the urban region. It featured two mobile platforms, the UK BAe-146 Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research aircraft and a ground-based mobile lidar van, both travelling in circuits around London, roughly following the path of the M25 motorway circling the city. We present an overview of findings from the project, which took place during typical UK summertime pollution conditions. Emission ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from the London region were consistent with measurements in and downwind of other large urban areas and indicated traffic and associated fuel evaporation were major sources. Sub-micron aerosol composition was dominated by secondary species including sulphate (24% of sub-micron mass in the London plume and 30% in the background aerosol), nitrate (24% plume; 18% background) and organic aerosol (30% plume; 30% background). The primary sub-micron aerosol emissions from London were minor compared to the larger regional background, with only limited increases in aerosol mass in the urban plume compared to the background (15% mass increase on average). Black carbon mass was the major exception, which more than doubled in the urban plume and lead to a decrease in the single scattering albedo from 0.91 in the background aerosol to 0.86 in the London plume, on average. Our observations indicated that regional aerosol appeared to dominate urban sources, at least during typical summertime conditions, meaning future efforts to reduce PM levels in London must account for regional as well as local aerosol sources.

A comparison of atmospheric dispersion model predictions with observations of SO2 and sulphate aerosol from volcanic eruptions

Abstract: [1] The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) is used both operationally and for research investigations. It has previously been used to model volcanic ash at the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), including that from the eruptions in Iceland of Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 and Grimsvotn in 2011. In this paper, the ability of NAME to model the release and dispersion of volcanic SO2, the chemical processes leading to the production of sulphate aerosol, and the subsequent dispersion of sulphate aerosol, has been investigated. Sensitivity tests were carried out to investigate the suitability of the NAME chemistry scheme for use in both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The eruptions of Sarychev in 2009, Kasatochi in 2008 and Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 were simulated and results for SO2 column density and sulphate aerosol optical depth (AOD) were compared with satellite retrievals. NAME results compare favorably with available observations in terms of both geographical distribution and magnitude for all three cases. The NAME modeled values of SO2 show a correlation of 0.8 with the corresponding observations for Sarychev. Ninety percent of modeled values of northern hemisphere averaged sulphate AOD are within a factor of 2 of those observed for Kasatochi and 71% are within a factor of 2 of those observed for Sarychev. Although significant uncertainties are present in both the model and observations, this work demonstrates that NAME's current chemistry scheme shows promise as a tool for modeling SO2 and sulphate from volcanoes.

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

Abstract: . Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study. Forecast models were utilised to determine flight regions suitable for contrail formation and sampling; regions that were both free of cloud but showed a high probability of occurrence of air mass being supersaturated with respect to ice. The FAAM research aircraft, fitted with cloud microphysics probes and remote sensing instruments, formed a distinctive spiral-shaped contrail in the predicted area by flying in an orbit over the same ground position as the wind advected the contrails to the east. Parts of these contrails were sampled during the completion of four orbits, with sampled contrail regions being between 7 and 30 min old. Lidar measurements were useful for in-flight determination of the location and spatial extent of the contrails, and also to report extinction values that agreed well with those calculated from the microphysical data. A shortwave spectrometer was also able to detect the contrails, though the signal was weak due to the dispersion and evaporation of the contrails. Post-flight the UK Met Office NAME III dispersion model was successfully used as a tool for modelling the dispersion of the persistent contrail; determining its location and age, and determining when there was interference from other measured aircraft contrails or when cirrus encroached on the area later in the flight. The persistent contrails were found to consist of small (~10 μm) plate-like crystals where growth of ice crystals to larger sizes (~100 μm) was typically detected when higher water vapour levels were present. Using the cloud microphysics data, extinction co-efficient values were calculated and found to be 0.01–1 km−1. The contrails formed during the flight (referred to as B587) were found to have a visible lifetime of ~40 min, and limited water vapour supply was thought to have suppressed ice crystal growth.

Progress in climate model simulations of geoengineering

Abstract: Second GeoMIP Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Workshop; Exeter, United Kingdom, 30–31 March 2012 Geoengineering through solar radiation management consists of hypothetical approaches to directly intervene in the climate system to counteract some consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. One commonly studied method involves creating a layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere covering most of the globe. This method takes inspiration from large volcanic eruptions, which cool the planet for a few years after the eruption.