Showing papers by "Martin Heimann published in 2004"

Transcom 3 inversion intercomparison: Model mean results for the estimation of seasonal carbon sources and sinks

Abstract: [1] The TransCom 3 experiment was begun to explore the estimation of carbon sources and sinks via the inversion of simulated tracer transport. We build upon previous TransCom work by presenting the seasonal inverse results which provide estimates of carbon flux for 11 land and 11 ocean regions using 12 atmospheric transport models. The monthly fluxes represent the mean seasonal cycle for the 1992 to 1996 time period. The spread among the model results is larger than the average of their estimated flux uncertainty in the northern extratropics and vice versa in the tropical regions. In the northern land regions, the model spread is largest during the growing season. Compared to a seasonally balanced biosphere prior flux generated by the CASA model, we find significant changes to the carbon exchange in the European region with greater growing season net uptake which persists into the fall months. Both Boreal North America and Boreal Asia show lessened net uptake at the onset of the growing season with Boreal Asia also exhibiting greater peak growing season net uptake. Temperate Asia shows a dramatic springward shift in the peak timing of growing season net uptake relative to the neutral CASA flux while Temperate North America exhibits a broad flattening of the seasonal cycle. In most of the ocean regions, the inverse fluxes exhibit much greater seasonality than that implied by the DpCO2 derived fluxes though this may be due, in part, to misallocation of adjacent land flux. In the Southern Ocean, the austral spring and fall exhibits much less carbon uptake than implied by DpCO2 derived fluxes. Sensitivity testing indicates that the inverse estimates are not overly influenced by the prior flux choices. Considerable agreement exists between the model mean, annual mean results of this study and that of the previously published TransCom annual mean inversion. The differences that do exist are in poorly constrained regions and tend to exhibit compensatory fluxes in order to match the global mass constraint. The differences between the estimated fluxes and the prior model over the northern land regions could be due to the prior model respiration response to temperature. Significant phase differences, such as that in the Temperate Asia region, may be due to the limited observations for that region. Finally, differences in the boreal land regions between the prior model and the estimated fluxes may be a reflection of the timing of spring thaw and an imbalance in respiration versus photosynthesis. INDEX TERMS: 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; KEYWORDS: carbon transport, inversion

Atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide from SCIAMACHY satellite data: initial comparison with chemistry and transport models

Abstract: . The remote sensing of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the troposphere from instrumentation aboard satellites is a new area of research. In this manuscript, results obtained from observations of the up-welling radiation in the near-infrared by SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT are presented. Vertical columns of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2) have been retrieved and the (air or) O2-normalised CH4 and CO2 column amounts, the dry air column averaged mixing ratios XCH4 and XCO2 derived. In this manuscript the first results, obtained by using the version 0.4 of the Weighting Function Modified (WFM) DOAS retrieval algorithm applied to SCIAMACHY data, are described and compared with global models. For the set of individual cloud free measurements over land the standard deviation of the difference with respect to the models is in the range ~100–200 ppbv (5–10%) for XCH4 and ~14–32 ppmv (4–9%) for XCO2. The inter-hemispheric difference of the methane mixing ratio, as determined from single day data, is in the range 30–110 ppbv and in reasonable agreement with the corresponding model data (48–71 ppbv). The weak inter-hemispheric difference of the CO2 mixing ratio can also be detected with single day data. The spatiotemporal pattern of the measured and the modelled XCO2 are in reasonable agreement. However, the amplitude of the difference between the maximum and the minimum for SCIAMACHY XCO2 is about ±20 ppmv which is about a factor of four larger than the variability of the model data which is about ±5 ppmv. More studies are needed to explain the observed differences. The XCO2 model field shows low CO2 concentrations beginning of January 2003 over a spatially extended CO2 sink region located in southern tropical/sub-tropical Africa. The SCIAMACHY data also show low CO2 mixing ratios over this area. According to the model the sink region becomes a source region about six months later and exhibits higher mixing ratios. The SCIAMACHY and the model data over this region show a similar time dependence over the period from January to October 2003. These results indicate that for the first time a regional CO2 surface source/sink region has been detected by measurements from space. The interpretation of the SCIAMACHY CO2 and CH4 measurements is difficult, e.g., because the error analysis of the currently implemented retrieval algorithm indicates that the retrieval errors are on the same order as the small greenhouse gas mixing ratio changes that are to be detected.

The carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems at country-scale a European case study

Abstract: . We summed estimates of the carbon balance of forests, grasslands, arable lands and peatlands to obtain country-specific estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance during the 1990s. Forests and grasslands were a net sink for carbon, whereas croplands were carbon sources in all European countries. Hence, countries dominated by arable lands tended to be losing carbon from their terrestrial ecosystems, whereas forest-dominated countries tended to be sequestering carbon. In some countries, draining and extraction of peatlands caused substantial reductions in the net carbon balance. Net terrestrial carbon balances were typically an order of magnitude smaller than the fossil fuel-related carbon emissions. Exceptions to this overall picture were countries where population density and industrialization are small. It is, however, of utmost importance to acknowledge that the typically small net carbon balance represents the small difference between two large but opposing fluxes: uptake by forests and grasslands and losses from arable lands and peatlands. This suggests that relatively small changes in either or both of these large component fluxes could induce large effects on the net total, indicating that mitigation schemes should not be discarded a priori. In the absence of carbon-oriented land management, the current net carbon uptake is bound to decline soon. Protecting it will require actions at three levels; a) maintaining the current sink activity of forests, b) altered agricultural management practices to reduce the emissions from arable soils or turn into carbon sinks and c) protecting current large reservoirs (wetlands and old forests), since carbon is lost more rapidly than sequestered.

CH4 sources estimated from atmospheric observations of CH4 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratios : 1. Inverse modeling of source processes

Abstract: A time-dependent inverse modeling approach that estimates the global magnitude of atmospheric methane sources from the observed spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CH4, C-13/C-12 isotopic ratios, and a priori estimates of the source strengths is presented. Relative to the a priori source estimates, the inverse model calls for increased CH4 flux from sources with strong spatial footprints in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and decreases in sources in the Northern Hemisphere. The CH4 and C-13/C-12 isotopic ratio observations suggest an unusually high CH4 flux from swamps (similar to200 +/- 44 Tg CH4/yr) and biomass burning (88 +/- 18 Tg CH4/yr) with relatively low estimates of emissions from bogs (similar to20 +/- 14 Tg CH4/yr), and landfills (35 +/- 14 Tg CH4/yr). The model results support the hypothesis that the 1998 CH4 growth rate anomaly was caused in part by a large increase in CH4 production from wetlands, and indicate that wetland sources were about 40 Tg CH4/yr higher in 1998 than 1999.

The vulnerability of the carbon cycle in the 21st century: an assessment of carbon-climate-human interactions

Abstract: In most scenario calculations to date, emissions from fossil-fuel burning are prescribed, and a carbon cycle model computes the time evolution of atmospheric CO2 as the residual between emissions and uptake by land and ocean, typically without considering feedbacks of climate on the carbon cycle (see, e.g., Schimel et al. 1996). The global carbon cycle is, however, intimately embedded in the physical climate system and tightly interconnected with human activities. As a consequence, climate, the carbon cycle, and humans are linked in a network of feedbacks, of which only those between the physical climate system and the carbon cycle have been explored so far (Friedlingstein, Chapter 10, this volume). One example of a carbon-climate feedback begins with the modification of climate through increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. This modification affects ocean circulation and consequently ocean CO2 uptake (e.g., Sarmiento et al. 1998; Joos et al. 1999; Matear and Hirst 1999). Similar feedbacks occur on land. For example, rising temperatures lead to higher soil respiration rates, which lead to greater releases of carbon to the atmosphere (e.g., Cox et al. 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2003). Human actions can also lead to feedbacks on climate. If climate change intensifies pressure to convert forests into pastures and cropland, then the climate change may be amplified by the human response (Raupach et al., Chapter 6, this volume). These positive feedbacks increase the fraction of the emitted CO2 that stays in the atmosphere, increasing the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 and accelerating climate change. Negative feedbacks are also possible. For example, a northward extension of forest or

CH4 sources estimated from atmospheric observations of CH4 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratios: 2. Inverse modeling of CH4 fluxes from geographical regions

Abstract: [1] We present a time-dependent inverse modeling approach to estimate the magnitude of CH4 emissions and the average isotopic signature of the combined source processes from geographical regions based on the observed spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and 13C/12C isotopic ratios in CH4. The inverse estimates of the isotopic signature of the sources are used to partition the regional source estimates into three groups of source processes based on their isotopic signatures. Compared with bottom-up estimates, the inverse estimates call for larger CH4 fluxes in the tropics (266 ± 25 Tg CH4/yr) and southern extratropics (98 ± 15 Tg CH4/yr) and reduced fluxes in the northern extratropics (252 ± 18 Tg CH4/yr). The observations of 13C/12C isotopic ratios in CH4 indicate that the large a posteriori CH4 source in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere is attributable to a combination both bacterial sources and biomass burning and support relatively low estimates of fossil CH4 emissions.

A model of the Earth's Dole effect

Abstract: [1] The Earth's Dole effect describes the isotopic 18O/16O-enrichment of atmospheric oxygen with respect to ocean water, amounting under today's conditions to 23.5‰. We have developed a model of the Earth's Dole effect by combining the results of three-dimensional models of the oceanic and terrestrial carbon and oxygen cycles with results of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with built-in water isotope diagnostics. We obtain a range from 22.4‰ to 23.3‰ for the isotopic enrichment of atmospheric oxygen. We estimate a stronger contribution to the global Dole effect by the terrestrial relative to the marine biosphere in contrast to previous studies. This is primarily caused by a modeled high leaf water enrichment of 5–6‰. Leaf water enrichment rises by ∼1‰ to 6–7‰ when we use it to fit the observed 23.5‰ of the global Dole effect. The present model is designed to be utilized in forthcoming paleo studies allowing a quantitative analysis of long-term observations from polar ice cores.

Observations of O2:CO2 exchange ratios during ecosystem gas exchange

Abstract: [1] We determined O2:CO2 exchange ratios of ecosystem fluxes during field campaigns in different forest ecosystems (Harvard Forest/United States, Griffin Forest/United Kingdom, Hainich/Germany). The exchange ratios of net assimilation observed in chamber experiments varied between 0.7 and 1.6, with averages of 1.1 to 1.2. A measurement of soil gas exchange yielded an exchange ratio of 0.94. On the other hand, the observed canopy air O2:CO2 ratios, derived from the concurrent variations of O2 and CO2 abundances in canopy air, were virtually indistinguishable from 1.0 over the full diurnal cycle. Simulations with a simple one-box model imply that the combined processes of assimilation, respiration, and turbulent exchange yield canopy air O2:CO2 ratios that differ from the exchange ratios of the separate fluxes. In particular, the simulated canopy air O2:CO2 ratios (1.01 to 1.12) were clearly lower than the exchange ratios of net turbulent fluxes between the ecosystem and the atmosphere (1.26 to 1.38). The simulated canopy air ratios were also sensitive to changes in the regional O2:CO2 ratio of air above the canopy. Offsets between the various exchange ratios could thus arise if the component ecosystem fluxes have different diurnal cycles and distinct exchange ratios. Our results indicate that measurements of O2 and CO2 abundances in canopy air may not be the appropriate method to determine O2:CO2 exchange ratios of net ecosystem fluxes.

Quantifying, Understanding and Managing the Carbon Cycle in the Next Decades

Abstract: The human perturbation of the carbon cycle via the release of fossil CO2 and land use change is now well documented and agreed to be the principal cause of climate change. We address three fundamental research areas that require major development if we were to provide policy relevant knowledge for managing the carbon-climate system over the next few decades. The three research areas are: (i) carbon observations and multiple constraint data assimilation; (ii) vulnerability of the carbon-climate system; and (iii) carbon sequestration and sustainable development.

Pacific dominance to global air-sea CO2 flux variability: A novel atmospheric inversion agrees with ocean models

Abstract: [1] We address an ongoing debate regarding the geographic distribution of interannual variability in ocean - atmosphere carbon exchange. We find that, for 1983–1998, both novel high-resolution atmospheric inversion calculations and global ocean biogeochemical models place the primary source of global CO2 air-sea flux variability in the Pacific Ocean. In the model considered here, this variability is clearly associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle. Both methods also indicate that the Southern Ocean is the second-largest source of air-sea CO2 flux variability, and that variability is small throughout the Atlantic, including the North Atlantic, in contrast to previous studies.