International genomic definition of pneumococcal lineages, to contextualise disease, antibiotic resistance and vaccine impact

Background: The long-term benefits of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) remain unknown because of serotype replacement. We aimed to estimate the effect of PCV implementation on invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in France.

Methods: We did a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis using data from a French national prospective surveillance system. We included all invasive pneumococcal disease cases in children and adults from more than 250 participating hospitals between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2017. The primary outcome was incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (meningitis and non-meningitis) over time, analysed by segmented regression with autoregressive error. Isolates were serotyped by latex agglutination with antiserum samples.

Findings: We included 75 903 patients with invasive pneumococcal disease, including 4302 (5·7%) children younger than 2 years and 37 534 (49·4%) adults aged 65 years or older. Before PCV7 implementation, the estimated monthly incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease was 0·78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, which did not change significantly up to May, 2010. PCV13 implementation in 2010 was followed by a significant decrease in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (-1·5% per month, 95% CI -2·2 to -0·8), reaching an estimated monthly incidence of 0·52 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in December, 2014. From January, 2015, the incidence rebounded (1·8% per month, 95% CI 1·0 to 2·6), reaching an estimated monthly incidence of 0·73 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in December, 2017. The estimated monthly incidence increased from 0·93 cases per 100 000 in December, 2014, to 1·73 cases per 100 000 in December, 2017, for children younger than 2 years, and from 1·54 cases per 100 000 in December, 2014, to 2·08 cases per 100 000 in December, 2017, for adults aged 65 years or older. The main non-PCV13 serotypes involved in the increase were 24F in young children and 12F, 22F, 9N, and 8 in adults aged 65 years or older.

Interpretation: PCV13 implementation led to a major reduction in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease. However, a rebound in cases among children and adults since 2015, driven by several emerging non-PCV13 serotypes, jeopardises the long-term PCV benefits. These findings, if confirmed in the coming years, should be considered in the development of next-generation PCVs and might guide policy makers in the selection of future pneumococcal vaccines.

Funding: Foundation for Medical Research; Pfizer, BioMerieux, Sanofi for the Regional Observatory of Pneumococci.

Invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in children and adults in France during the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era: an interrupted time-series analysis of data from a 17-year national prospective surveillance study

Discovery of genetic variants underlying bacterial phenotypes and the prediction of phenotypes such as antibiotic resistance are fundamental tasks in bacterial genomics. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) methods have been applied to study these relations, but the plastic nature of bacterial genomes and the clonal structure of bacterial populations creates challenges. We introduce an alignment-free method which finds sets of loci associated with bacterial phenotypes, quantifies the total effect of genetics on the phenotype, and allows accurate phenotype prediction, all within a single computationally scalable joint modeling framework. Genetic variants covering the entire pangenome are compactly represented by extended DNA sequence words known as unitigs, and model fitting is achieved using elastic net penalization, an extension of standard multiple regression. Using an extensive set of state-of-the-art bacterial population genomic data sets, we demonstrate that our approach performs accurate phenotype prediction, comparable to popular machine learning methods, while retaining both interpretability and computational efficiency. Compared to those of previous approaches, which test each genotype-phenotype association separately for each variant and apply a significance threshold, the variants selected by our joint modeling approach overlap substantially.IMPORTANCE Being able to identify the genetic variants responsible for specific bacterial phenotypes has been the goal of bacterial genetics since its inception and is fundamental to our current level of understanding of bacteria. This identification has been based primarily on painstaking experimentation, but the availability of large data sets of whole genomes with associated phenotype metadata promises to revolutionize this approach, not least for important clinical phenotypes that are not amenable to laboratory analysis. These models of phenotype-genotype association can in the future be used for rapid prediction of clinically important phenotypes such as antibiotic resistance and virulence by rapid-turnaround or point-of-care tests. However, despite much effort being put into adapting genome-wide association study (GWAS) approaches to cope with bacterium-specific problems, such as strong population structure and horizontal gene exchange, current approaches are not yet optimal. We describe a method that advances methodology for both association and generation of portable prediction models.

https://mbio.asm.org/content/mbio/11/4/e01344-20.full.pdf

Improved Prediction of Bacterial Genotype-Phenotype Associations Using Interpretable Pangenome-Spanning Regressions

As whole-genome sequencing capacity becomes increasingly decentralized, there is a growing opportunity for collaboration and the sharing of surveillance data within and between countries to inform typhoid control policies. This vision requires free, community-driven tools that facilitate access to genomic data for public health on a global scale. Here we present the Pathogenwatch scheme for Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), a web application enabling the rapid identification of genomic markers of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and contextualization with public genomic data. We show that the clustering of S. Typhi genomes in Pathogenwatch is comparable to established bioinformatics methods, and that genomic predictions of AMR are highly concordant with phenotypic susceptibility data. We demonstrate the public health utility of Pathogenwatch with examples selected from >4,300 public genomes available in the application. Pathogenwatch provides an intuitive entry point to monitor of the emergence and spread of S. Typhi high risk clones.

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A global resource for genomic predictions of antimicrobial resistance and surveillance of Salmonella Typhi at pathogenwatch

Diversity of Serotype Replacement After Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Implementation in Europe

Summary Background Invasive pneumococcal disease remains an important health priority owing to increasing disease incidence caused by pneumococci expressing non-vaccine serotypes. We previously defined 621 Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) by analysing 20 027 pneumococcal isolates collected worldwide and from previously published genomic data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the pneumococcal lineages behind the predominant serotypes, the mechanism of serotype replacement in disease, as well as the major pneumococcal lineages contributing to invasive pneumococcal disease in the post-vaccine era and their antibiotic resistant traits. Methods We whole-genome sequenced 3233 invasive pneumococcal disease isolates from laboratory-based surveillance programmes in Hong Kong (n=78), Israel (n=701), Malawi (n=226), South Africa (n=1351), The Gambia (n=203), and the USA (n=674). The genomes represented pneumococci from before and after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introductions and were from children younger than 3 years. We identified predominant serotypes by prevalence and their major contributing lineages in each country, and assessed any serotype replacement by comparing the incidence rate between the pre-PCV and PCV periods for Israel, South Africa, and the USA. We defined the status of a lineage as vaccine-type GPSC (≥50% 13-valent PCV [PCV13] serotypes) or non-vaccine-type GPSC (>50% non-PCV13 serotypes) on the basis of its initial serotype composition detected in the earliest vaccine period to measure their individual contribution toward serotype replacement in each country. Major pneumococcal lineages in the PCV period were identified by pooled incidence rate using a random effects model. Findings The five most prevalent serotypes in the PCV13 period varied between countries, with only serotypes 5, 12F, 15B/C, 19A, 33F, and 35B/D common to two or more countries. The five most prevalent serotypes in the PCV13 period varied between countries, with only serotypes 5, 12F, 15B/C, 19A, 33F, and 35B/D common to two or more countries. These serotypes were associated with more than one lineage, except for serotype 5 (GPSC8). Serotype replacement was mainly mediated by expansion of non-vaccine serotypes within vaccine-type GPSCs and, to a lesser extent, by increases in non-vaccine-type GPSCs. A globally spreading lineage, GPSC3, expressing invasive serotypes 8 in South Africa and 33F in the USA and Israel, was the most common lineage causing non-vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease in the PCV13 period. We observed that same prevalent non-vaccine serotypes could be associated with distinctive lineages in different countries, which exhibited dissimilar antibiotic resistance profiles. In non-vaccine serotype isolates, we detected significant increases in the prevalence of resistance to penicillin (52 [21%] of 249 vs 169 [29%] of 575, p=0·0016) and erythromycin (three [1%] of 249 vs 65 [11%] of 575, p=0·0031) in the PCV13 period compared with the pre-PCV period. Interpretation Globally spreading lineages expressing invasive serotypes have an important role in serotype replacement, and emerging non-vaccine serotypes associated with different pneumococcal lineages in different countries might be explained by local antibiotic-selective pressures. Continued genomic surveillance of the dynamics of the pneumococcal population with increased geographical representation in the post-vaccine period will generate further knowledge for optimising future vaccine design. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Sanger Institute, and the US Centers for Disease Control.

Pneumococcal lineages associated with serotype replacement and antibiotic resistance in childhood invasive pneumococcal disease in the post-PCV13 era: an international whole-genome sequencing study.

Mushal Ali

Papers

Pneumococcal lineages associated with serotype replacement and antibiotic resistance in childhood invasive pneumococcal disease in the post-PCV13 era: an international whole-genome sequencing study.