Showing papers by "Paul J. Crutzen published in 2012"

Global agriculture and nitrous oxide emissions

Abstract: This Review discusses current knowledge regarding agriculture as a source for nitrous oxide — a major greenhouse gas. It offers an outlook on future developments about the consequences of increasing use of biofuels and the potential importance of aquaculture, as well as options for mitigation.

Planetary Opportunities: A Social Contract for Global Change Science to Contribute to a Sustainable Future

Abstract: The global change research community needs to renew its social contract with society by moving beyond a focus on biophysical limits and toward solution-oriented research to provide realistic, context-specific pathways to a sustainable future. A focus on planetary opportunities is based on the premise that societies adapt to change and have historically implemented solutions-for example, to protect watersheds, improve food security, and reduce harmful atmospheric emissions. Daunting social and biophysical challenges for achieving a sustainable future demand that the global change research community work to provide underpinnings for workable solutions at multiple scales of governance. Global change research must reorient itself from a focus on biophysically oriented, global-scale analysis of humanity's negative impact on the Earth system to consider the needs of decisionmakers from household to global scales. © 2012 by American Institute of Biological Sciences.

The role of carbonyl sulphide as a source of stratospheric sulphate aerosol and its impact on climate

Abstract: . Globally, carbonyl sulphide (COS) is the most abundant sulphur gas in the atmosphere. Our chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere with aerosol module realistically simulates the background stratospheric sulphur cycle, as observed by satellites in volcanically quiescent periods. The model results indicate that upward transport of COS from the troposphere largely controls the sulphur budget and the aerosol loading of the background stratosphere. This differs from most previous studies which indicated that short-lived sulphur gases are also important. The model realistically simulates the modulation of the particulate and gaseous sulphur abundance in the stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In the lowermost stratosphere organic carbon aerosol contributes significantly to extinction. Further, using a chemical radiative convective model and recent spectra, we compute that the direct radiative forcing efficiency by 1 kg of COS is 724 times that of 1 kg CO2. Considering an anthropogenic fraction of 30% (derived from ice core data), this translates into an overall direct radiative forcing by COS of 0.003 W m−2. The direct global warming potentials of COS over time horizons of 20 and 100 yr are GWP(20 yr) = 97 and GWP(100 yr) = 27, respectively (by mass). Furthermore, stratospheric aerosol particles produced by the photolysis of COS (chemical feedback) contribute to a negative direct solar radiative forcing, which in the CCM amounts to −0.007 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere for the anthropogenic fraction, more than two times the direct warming forcing of COS. Considering that the lifetime of COS is twice that of stratospheric aerosols the warming and cooling tendencies approximately cancel.

The role of N2O derived from crop-based biofuels, and from agriculture in general, in Earth's climate

Abstract: In earlier work, we compared the amount of newly fixed nitrogen (N, as synthetic fertilizer and biologically fixed N) entering agricultural systems globally to the total emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We obtained an N(2)O emission factor (EF) of 3-5%, and applied it to biofuel production. For 'first-generation' biofuels, e.g. biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), that require N fertilizer, N(2)O from biofuel production could cause (depending on N uptake efficiency) as much or more global warming as that avoided by replacement of fossil fuel by the biofuel. Our subsequent calculations in a follow-up paper, using published life cycle analysis (LCA) models, led to broadly similar conclusions. The N(2)O EF applies to agricultural crops in general, not just to biofuel crops, and has made possible a top-down estimate of global emissions from agriculture. Independent modelling by another group using bottom-up IPCC inventory methodology has shown good agreement at the global scale with our top-down estimate. Work by Davidson showed that the rate of accumulation of N(2)O in the atmosphere in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries was greater than that predicted from agricultural inputs limited to fertilizer N and biologically fixed N (Davidson, E. A. 2009 Nat. Geosci. 2, 659-662.). However, by also including soil organic N mineralized following land-use change and NO(x) deposited from the atmosphere in our estimates of the reactive N entering the agricultural cycle, we have now obtained a good fit between the observed atmospheric N(2)O concentrations from 1860 to 2000 and those calculated on the basis of a 4 per cent EF for the reactive N.