Ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is a dominant driver of long-term changes in pH in the open ocean, raising concern for the future of calcifying organisms, many of which are present in coastal habitats. However, changes in pH in coastal ecosystems result from a multitude of drivers, including impacts from watershed pro- cesses, nutrient inputs, and changes in ecosystem structure and metabolism. Interaction between ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the dynamic regional to local drivers of coastal ecosystems have resulted in complex regulation of pH in coastal waters. Changes in the watershed can, for example, lead to changes in alkalinity and CO2 fluxes that, together with metabolic processes and oceanic dynamics, yield high-magnitude decadal changes of up to 0.5 units in coastal pH. Metabolism results in strong diel to seasonal fluctuations in pH, with characteristic ranges of 0.3 pH units, with metabolically intense habitats exceeding this range on a daily basis. The intense variability and multiple, complex controls on pH implies that the concept of ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions cannot be transposed to coastal ecosystems directly. Furthermore, in coastal ecosys- tems, the detection of trends towards acidification is not trivial and the attribution of these changes to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is even more problematic. Coastal ecosystems may show acidification or basification, depending on the balance betweenthe invasionof coastal waters byanthropogenic CO2, watershed export of alkalinity, organic matter and CO2 ,a nd changes in the balance between primary production, respira- tion and calcification rates in response to changes in nutrient inputs and losses of ecosystem components. Hence, we contend that ocean acidification from anthropogenic CO2 is largely an open-ocean syndrome and that a concept of anthro- pogenic impacts on marine pH, which is applicable across the entire ocean, from coastal to open-ocean environments, provides a superior framework to consider the multiple components of the anthropogenic perturbation of marine pH trajectories. The concept of anthropogenic impacts on seawater pH acknowledges that a regional focus is neces- sary to predict future trajectories in the pH of coastal waters and points at opportunities to manage these trajec- tories locally to conserve coastal organisms vulnerable to ocean acidification.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12237-013-9594-3.pdf

Is Ocean Acidification an Open-Ocean Syndrome? Understanding Anthropogenic Impacts on Seawater pH

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent—and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/16/6442.full.pdf

Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States

The topics assessed in this chapter were last assessed by the IPCC in 2007, principally in WGII AR4 Chapters 3 (Kundzewicz et al., 2007) and 4 (Fischlin et al., 2007), but also in WGII AR4 Sections 1.3.4 and 1.3.5 (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). The WGII AR4 SPM stated “Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases,” though they noted that documentation of observed changes in tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere was sparse (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). Fischlin et al. (2007) found that 20 to 30% of the plant and animal species that had been assessed to that time were considered to be at increased risk of extinction if the global average temperature increase exceeds 2°C to 3°C above the preindustrial level with medium confidence, and that substantial changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems are very likely under that degree of warming and associated atmospheric CO2 concentration. No time scale was associated with these findings. The carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems were considered to be at high risk from climate change and land use change. The report warned that the capacity of ecosystems to adapt naturally to the combined effect of climate change and other stressors is likely to be exceeded if greenhouse gas (GHG) emission continued at or above the then-current rate.

/pdf/terrestrial-and-inland-water-systems-1l548lpxsy.pdf

Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems

The effect of temperature on marine phytoplankton growth strategies, metabolism and composition is studied using a range of techniques. This approach indicates that temperature plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in resource allocation and marine phytoplankton elemental ratios, with implications for biogeochemical cycling.

/pdf/the-impact-of-temperature-on-marine-phytoplankton-resource-3agpaaq33o.pdf

The impact of temperature on marine phytoplankton resource allocation and metabolism

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

/pdf/predictability-of-biomass-burning-in-response-to-climate-4n1gclie8j.pdf

Scott Brewer

Papers

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes