Showing papers by "Volker C. Radeloff published in 2017"

Global priorities for conservation across multiple dimensions of mammalian diversity.

Abstract: Conservation priorities that are based on species distribution, endemism, and vulnerability may underrepresent biologically unique species as well as their functional roles and evolutionary histories. To ensure that priorities are biologically comprehensive, multiple dimensions of diversity must be considered. Further, understanding how the different dimensions relate to one another spatially is important for conservation prioritization, but the relationship remains poorly understood. Here, we use spatial conservation planning to (i) identify and compare priority regions for global mammal conservation across three key dimensions of biodiversity—taxonomic, phylogenetic, and traits—and (ii) determine the overlap of these regions with the locations of threatened species and existing protected areas. We show that priority areas for mammal conservation exhibit low overlap across the three dimensions, highlighting the need for an integrative approach for biodiversity conservation. Additionally, currently protected areas poorly represent the three dimensions of mammalian biodiversity. We identify areas of high conservation priority among and across the dimensions that should receive special attention for expanding the global protected area network. These high-priority areas, combined with areas of high priority for other taxonomic groups and with social, economic, and political considerations, provide a biological foundation for future conservation planning efforts.

Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes in Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991

Abstract: The first € price and the £ and $ price are net prices, subject to local VAT. Prices indicated with * include VAT for books; the €(D) includes 7% for Germany, the €(A) includes 10% for Austria. Prices indicated with ** include VAT for electronic products; 19% for Germany, 20% for Austria. All prices exclusive of carriage charges. Prices and other details are subject to change without notice. All errors and omissions excepted. G. Gutman, V. Radeloff (Eds.) Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes in Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991

Combined effects of night warming and light pollution on predator-prey interactions.

Abstract: Interactions between multiple anthropogenic environmental changes can drive non-additive effects in ecological systems, and the non-additive effects can in turn be amplified or dampened by spatial covariation among environmental changes. We investigated the combined effects of night-time warming and light pollution on pea aphids and two predatory ladybeetle species. As expected, neither night-time warming nor light pollution changed the suppression of aphids by the ladybeetle species that forages effectively in darkness. However, for the more-visual predator, warming and light had non-additive effects in which together they caused much lower aphid abundances. These results are particularly relevant for agriculture near urban areas that experience both light pollution and warming from urban heat islands. Because warming and light pollution can have non-additive effects, predicting their possible combined consequences over broad spatial scales requires knowing how they co-occur. We found that night-time temperature change since 1949 covaried positively with light pollution, which has the potential to increase their non-additive effects on pea aphid control by 70% in US alfalfa. Our results highlight the importance of non-additive effects of multiple environmental factors on species and food webs, especially when these factors co-occur.

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

Abstract: Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

Effects of national forest-management regimes on unprotected forests of the Himalaya.

Abstract: Globally, deforestation continues, and although protected areas effectively protect forests, the majority of forests are not in protected areas Thus, how effective are different management regimes to avoid deforestation in non-protected forests? We sought to assess the effectiveness of different national forest-management regimes to safeguard forests outside protected areas We compared 2000-2014 deforestation rates across the temperate forests of 5 countries in the Himalaya (Bhutan, Nepal, China, India, and Myanmar) of which 13% are protected We reviewed the literature to characterize forest management regimes in each country and conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to measure differences in deforestation of unprotected forests among countries and states in India Countries varied in both overarching forest-management goals and specific tenure arrangements and policies for unprotected forests, from policies emphasizing economic development to those focused on forest conservation Deforestation rates differed up to 14% between countries, even after accounting for local determinants of deforestation, such as human population density, market access, and topography The highest deforestation rates were associated with forest policies aimed at maximizing profits and unstable tenure regimes Deforestation in national forest-management regimes that emphasized conservation and community management were relatively low In India results were consistent with the national-level results We interpreted our results in the context of the broader literature on decentralized, community-based natural resource management, and our findings emphasize that the type and quality of community-based forestry programs and the degree to which they are oriented toward sustainable use rather than economic development are important for forest protection Our cross-national results are consistent with results from site- and regional-scale studies that show forest-management regimes that ensure stable land tenure and integrate local-livelihood benefits with forest conservation result in the best forest outcomes

Nineteenth-century land-use legacies affect contemporary land abandonment in the Carpathians

Abstract: Historical land use may shape landscapes for centuries into the future, but it remains unclear how much land-use legacies affect contemporary land use. Knowing for how long and how strongly land-use legacies affect agricultural systems is important for contemporary land-use planning and conservation. We assessed the effect of nineteenth-century agricultural legacies for contemporary agricultural abandonment by integrating historic maps and satellite imagery in the Carpathian region. We modeled the choice of agricultural land, and the legacies of Habsburg and Socialist regimes, while controlling for agro-ecological, accessibility and sociopolitical variation. Farming during the Habsburg era was concentrated in agro-ecologically suitable areas, but socialist agricultural expansion occurred mostly in less suitable areas, leading to subsequent abandonment. In addition, our results showed that historic land use affected abandonment even 100 years later. Although legacies diminished over time, their effects were amplified when political transformations occurred, likely due to land tenure systems, land owner attitudes, cultural values and differences in land improvement over time. Taken together, land-use legacies and shifts in political systems can constrain current land management and possible future land-use options, suggesting that contemporary land-use decisions can affect future land use for decades and even centuries.

The signature of human pressure history on the biogeography of body mass in tetrapods

Abstract: Aim Examining the biogeography of body size is crucial for understanding how animal communities are assembled and maintained. In tetrapods, body size varies predictably with temperature, moisture, productivity seasonality and topographical complexity. Although millennial-scale human pressures are known to have led to the extinction of primarily large-bodied tetrapods, human pressure history is often ignored in studies of body size that focus on extant species. Here, we analyse 11,377 tetrapod species of the Western Hemisphere to test whether millennial-scale human pressures have left an imprint on contemporary body mass distributions throughout the tetrapod clade. Location Western Hemisphere. Time period Contemporary. Major taxa studied Tetrapods (birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles). Methods We mapped the distribution of assemblage-level median tetrapod body mass at a resolution of 110 km across the Western Hemisphere. We then generated multivariate models of median body mass as a function of temperature, moisture, productivity seasonality and topographical complexity, as well as two variables capturing the history of human population density and human-induced land conversion over the past 12,000 years. We controlled for both spatial and phylogenetic autocorrelation effects on body mass–environment relationships. Results Human pressures explain a small but significant portion of geographical variation in median body mass that cannot be explained by ecological constraints alone. Overall, the median body mass of tetrapod assemblages is lower than expected in areas with a longer history of high human population density and land conversion, but there are important differences among tetrapod classes. Main conclusions At this broad scale, the effect of human pressure history on tetrapod body mass is low relative to that of ecology. However, ignoring spatial variation in the history of human pressure is likely to lead to bias in studies of the present-day functional composition of tetrapod assemblages, at least in areas that have long been influenced by humans.

The effect of protected areas on forest disturbance in the Carpathian Mountains 1985-2010.

Abstract: Protected areas are a cornerstone for forest protection, but they are not always effective during times of socioeconomic and institutional crises. The Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe are an ecologically outstanding region, with widespread seminatural and old-growth forest. Since 1990, Carpathian countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine) have experienced economic hardship and institutional changes, including the breakdown of socialism, European Union accession, and a rapid expansion of protected areas. The question is how protected-area effectiveness has varied during these times across the Carpathians given these changes. We analyzed a satellite-based data set of forest disturbance (i.e., forest loss due to harvesting or natural disturbances) from 1985 to 2010 and used matching statistics and a fixed-effects estimator to quantify the effect of protection on forest disturbance. Protected areas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Ukraine had significantly less deforestation inside protected areas than outside in some periods; the likelihood of disturbance was reduced by 1-5%. The effectiveness of protection increased over time in these countries, whereas the opposite was true in Romania. Older protected areas were most effective in Romania and Hungary, but newer protected areas were more effective in Czech Republic, and Poland. Strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] protection category Ia-II) was not more effective than landscape-level protection (IUCN III-VI). We suggest that the strength of institutions, the differences in forest privatization, forest management, prior distribution of protected areas, and when countries joined the European Union may provide explanations for the strikingly heterogeneous effectiveness patterns among countries. Our results highlight how different the effects of protected areas can be at broad scales, indicating that the effectiveness of protected areas is transitory over time and space and suggesting that generalizations about the effectiveness of protected areas can be misleading.

Underlying Drivers and Spatial Determinants of post-Soviet Agricultural Land Abandonment in Temperate Eastern Europe

Abstract: Our goal was to understand the underlying drivers and spatial determinants of agricultural land abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent transition from state-command to market-driven economies from 1990 to 2000. We brought an example of agricultural land-use change in one agro-climatic zone stretching across Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia. Here, we provide an overview of the agricultural changes for the studied countries. We estimated the rates and patterns of agricultural land abandonment based on Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite images and linked these data with institutional changes regarding land use. Using spatially explicit logistic regressions, we assessed spatial determinants of agricultural land abandonment. The highest rates of land abandonment from 1990 to 2000 were observed in Russia (31 %), followed by Lithuania (19 %), and Belarus (13 %), and the differences in land abandonment rates reflected the contrasting strategies for transitioning toward a market economy. The spatial patterns of agricultural land abandonment across Lithuania and Russia corresponded to the land rent theory of von Thunen, as sites with low crop yields that were distant from markets had higher rates of abandonment. However, this was not the case for Belarus, where the institutional environment regarding agricultural land use differed from neighboring Lithuania and Russia.

Enhancing biodiversity conservation in existing land-use plans with widely available datasets and spatial analysis techniques.

Abstract: In many developing countries, high rates of deforestation and biodiversity loss make conservation efforts urgent. Improving existing land-use plans can be an option for enhancing biodiversity conservation. We showcase an approach to enhancing an existing forest land-use plan using widely available data and spatial tools, focusing on Argentina's Southern Yungas ecoregion. We mapped the distribution of wilderness areas and species and habitats of conservation concern, assessed their representation in the land-use plan and quantified potential changes in habitat availability and forest connectivity. Wilderness comprised 48% of the study area, and the highest concentrations of elements of conservation concern were in the north. In the current land-use plan, wilderness areas often occur in regions where logging and grazing are allowed, and a large proportion of the forest with the highest conservation value (43%) is under some level of human influence. Furthermore, we found that deforestation being legally allowed in the land-use plan could reduce forest connectivity and habitat availability substantially. We recommend updating the current land-use plan by considering human influence and elements of conservation concern. More broadly, we demonstrate that widely available spatial datasets and straightforward approaches can improve the usefulness of existing land-use plans so that they more fully incorporate conservation goals.

Land Change in the Carpathian Region Before and After Major Institutional Changes

Abstract: The Carpathian region represents an ideal showcase of several land change theories and their implications for conservation because this region shares the long geo-political and socio-economic history of Eastern Europe while also being a biodiversity hotspot. With a long history of abrupt socio-economic and institutional shifts, the Carpathians exemplify how ecosystems may or may not be pushed into an alternative stable state following shocks such as the collapse of empires, world wars or the collapse of socialism. Furthermore, ecosystem changes may or may not experience time-lags in response to shocks, and over long time periods, historic land-use practices may produce land-use legacies that persist on the landscapes for decades or centuries. Here, we analyze the long-term drivers of land change and their land-use outcomes in the Carpathian region, with a particular focus on forests, agriculture and grasslands, and provide examples of how ecosystems respond to shocks using examples of alternative stable states, time-lags and land-use legacies. Understanding how and why land change patterns vary over time and space is important for balancing land-use decisions, especially in biodiverse regions with a high conservation value.

Monitoring selective logging with Landsat satellite imagery reveals that protected forests in Western Siberia experience greater harvest than non-protected forests

Abstract: When timber harvesting is an important source of local income and forest resources are declining, even forests that are designated as protected areas may become vulnerable. Therefore, regular monitoring of forest disturbance is necessary to enforce the protection of forest ecosystems. However, mapping forest disturbance with satellite imagery can be complicated if the majority of the harvesting is selective logging and not clearcuts. Our goal was to map both selective logging and clearcuts within and outside of protected areas in Western Siberia, a region with a highly developed timber industry. Combining summer and winter imagery allowed us to accurately estimate not only clearcuts, but also selective logging. Winter Landsat images substantially improved our classification and resulted in a highly accurate forest disturbance map (97.5% overall accuracy and 86% user accuracy for the rarest class, clearcuts). Selective logging and stripcuts were the dominant disturbance types, accounting for 96.3% of all forest disturbances, versus 3.7% for clearcuts. The total annual forest disturbance rate (i.e. disturbance rate for clearcuts, stripcuts and selective logging together) was 0.53%, but total forest disturbance within protected areas was greater than in non-protected forest (0.66% versus 0.50%, respectively), and so was the annual rate of selective logging (i.e. without clearcuts, 0.37% versus 0.25%, respectively). Our results highlight that monitoring only clearcuts without assessing selective logging might result in significant underestimation of forest disturbance. Also, when timber harvesting is important for the local economy and when protected areas have valuable timber resources that have already been depleted elsewhere, then additional protection may be necessary in order to maintain natural forests within protected areas. We suggest that this is the situation in our study area in Western Siberia right now and is likely the situation in many other parts of the globe as well.