Showing papers by "London Business School published in 2005"

Bad Management Theories Are Destroying Good Management Practices

Abstract: This article argues that academic research related to the conduct of business and management has had some very significant and negative influences on the practice of management. These influences ha...

Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: Data Collection Design and Implementation 1998–2003

Abstract: The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor research program was designed as a comprehensive assessment of the role of entrepreneurship in national economic growth. The conceptual model reflected in a wide range of factors associated with national variations in entrepreneurial activity and the major contextual features. Empirical tests of the many relationships in the model required four major data collection activities: adult population surveys, unstructured interviews with national experts, self-administered questionnaires completed by national experts, and assembly of relevant standardized measures from existing cross-national data sets. Adult population surveys were implemented to identify those entrepreneurially active, which required a set of precise criteria and careful processing to ensure harmonized counts and prevalence rates across 41 countries. Existing evidence on measures of reliability indicates that the measures met contemporary standards and the project was cost-effective.

Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle

Abstract: This article solves a realistically calibrated life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with non-tradable labor income and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings, the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of the importance of human capital for investment behavior. We find that ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, while the cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitude smaller, except when we allow for a disastrous labor income shock. Moreover, we study the implications of introducing endogenous borrowing constraints in this incomplete-markets setting. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Structural vs. relational embeddedness: social capital and managerial performance

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of managers' social capital on managerial performance. Two dimensions of social capital are compared—the structural embeddedness (i.e., configuration) of a manager's network of work relations and the relational embeddedness (i.e., quality) of those relations. Based on a sample of 120 product and sales managers in a Fortune 100 pharmaceutical firm, this paper presents evidence indicating that both elements of social capital influence managerial performance, although in distinct ways: structural embeddedness plays a stronger role in explaining more routine, execution-oriented tasks (managerial sales performance), whereas relational embeddedness plays a stronger role in explaining new, innovation-oriented tasks (managerial performance in product and process innovation). This research considers resource exchanges within firms as key to value creating behaviors and contributes a deeper understanding of how social capital influences productive resource exchanges. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The relationship between hr practices and firm performance: examining causal order

Abstract: Significant research attention has been devoted to examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, and research support has assumed HR as the causal variable. Using data from 45 business units (with 62 data points), this study examines how measures of HR practices correlate with past, concurrent, and future operational performance measures. The results indicate that correlations with performance measures at all 3 times are both high and invariant, and that controlling for past or concurrent performance virtually eliminates the correlation of HR practices with future performance. Implications are discussed.

Personality and domain-specific risk taking

Abstract: The concept of risk propensity has been the subject of both theoretical and empirical investigation, but with little consensus about its definition and measurement. To address this need, a new scale assessing overall risk propensity in terms of reported frequency of risk behaviours in six domains was developed and applied: recreation, health, career, finance, safety and social. The paper describes the properties of the scale and its correlates: demographic variables, biographical self‐reports, and the NEO PI‐R, a Five Factor personality inventory (N = 2041). There are three main results. First, risk propensity has clear links with age and sex, and with objective measures of career‐related risk taking (changing jobs and setting up a business). Second, the data show risk propensity to be strongly rooted in personality. A clear Big Five pattern emerges for overall risk propensity, combining high extraversion and openness with low neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. At the subscale level, sensa...

The Role of Accruals in Asymmetrically Timely Gain and Loss Recognition

Abstract: We investigate the role of accrual accounting in the asymmetrically timely recognition of unrealized gains and losses (i.e., prior to the actual realization of those losses in cash). This role of accrual accounting has not been directly recognized in the literature. We show that non-linear accruals models are a substantial specification improvement, explaining up to three times the amount of variation in accruals as conventional linear specifications such as Jones (1991). Conversely, we conclude that conventional linear accruals models, by omitting the role of accruals in asymmetrically timely loss recognition, offer a comparatively poor specification of the accounting accrual process. We also conclude that linear specifications of the relation between earnings and future cash flows, ignoring the implications of asymmetrically timely loss recognition (conditional conservatism), substantially understate the ability of current earnings to predict future cash flows. These findings have important implications for our understanding of accrual accounting, and for researchers using estimates of discretionary accruals, earnings management and earnings quality from misspecified linear accruals models.

The Co-evolution of Capabilities and Transaction Costs: Explaining the Institutional Structure of Production

Abstract: This paper proposes that transaction costs and capabilities are fundamentally intertwined in the determination of vertical scope, and identifies the key mechanisms of their co-evolution. Specifically, we argue that capability differences are a necessary condition for vertical specialization; and that transaction cost reductions only lead to specialization when capabilities along the value chain are heterogeneous. Furthermore, we argue that there are four evolutionary mechanisms that shape vertical scope over time. First, the selection process, itself driven by capability differences, dynamically shapes vertical scope; second, transaction costs are endogenously changed by firms that try to re-shape the transactional environment to increase their profit and market share; third, changes in vertical scope affect the nature of the capability development process, i.e., the way in which firms improve their operations over time; and finally, the changes in the capability development process re-shape the capability pool in the industry, changing the roster of qualified participants. These dynamics of capability and transaction cost co-evolution are illustrated through two contrasting examples: The mortgage banking industry in the US, which shows the shift from integrated to dis-integrated production; and the Swiss watch manufacturing industry, which went from dis-integration to integration.

Knowledge sharing in organizations: multiple networks, multiple phases

Abstract: Different subsets of social networks may explain knowledge sharing outcomes in different ways. One subset may counteract another subset, and one subset may explain one outcome but not another. We found support for these arguments in an analysis of a sample of 121 new-product development teams. Within-team and interunit networks had different effects on the outcomes of three knowledge-sharing phases: deciding whether to seek knowledge across subunits, search costs, and costs of transfers. These results suggest that research on knowledge sharing can be advanced by studying how multiple networks affect various phases of knowledge sharing.

Perspective-Taking and Self-Other Overlap: Fostering Social Bonds and Facilitating Social Coordination

Abstract: The present article offers a conceptual model for how the cognitive processes associated with perspective-taking facilitate social coordination and foster social bonds. We suggest that the benefits of perspective-taking accrue through an increased self‐other overlap in cognitive representations and discuss the implications of this perspective-taking induced self‐other overlap for stereotyping and prejudice. Whereas perspective-taking decreases stereotyping of others (through application of the self to the other), it increases stereotypicality of one’s own behavior (through inclusion of the other in the self). To promote social bonds, perspectivetakers utilize information, including stereotypes, to coordinate their behavior with others. The discussion focuses on the implications, both positive and negative, of this self‐other overlap for social relationships and discusses how conceptualizing perspective-taking, as geared toward supporting specific social bonds, provides a framework for understanding why the effects of perspective-taking are typically target-specific and do not activate a general helping mind-set. Through its attempts to secure social bonds, perspective-taking can be an engine of social harmony, but can also reveal a dark side, one full of ironic consequences.

The co-evolution of capabilities and transaction costs: explaining the institutional structure of production

Abstract: This paper proposes that transaction costs and capabilities are fundamentally intertwined in the determination of vertical scope, and identifies the key mechanisms of their co-evolution. Specifically, we argue that capability differences are a necessary condition for vertical specialization; and that transaction cost reductions only lead to specialization when capabilities along the value chain are heterogeneous. Furthermore, we argue that there are four evolutionary mechanisms that shape vertical scope over time. First, the selection process, itself driven by capability differences, dynamically shapes vertical scope; second, transaction costs are endogenously changed by firms that try to reshape the transactional environment to increase their profit and market share; third, changes in vertical scope affect the nature of the capability development process, i.e., the way in which firms improve their operations over time; and finally, the changes in the capability development process reshape the capability pool in the industry, changing the roster of qualified participants. These dynamics of capability and transaction cost co-evolution are illustrated through two contrasting examples: the mortgage banking industry in the United States, which shows the shift from integrated to disintegrated production; and the Swiss watch-manufacturing industry, which went from disintegration to integration. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Political Economy of Corporate Governance

Abstract: The paper analyzes the political decision that determines the degree of investor protection. We show that entrepreneurs and workers can strike a political agreement by which low investor protection is exchanged for high employment protection. This “corporatist” agreement is feasible if the political system favors the formation of coalition governments. In contrast, “non-corporatist” countries will feature high investor protection and low employment protection. The model also shows that the more diffused is share ownership, the higher the chosen degree of shareholder protection. Finally, the model predicts the frequency of mergers and acquisitions to be negatively correlated with employment protection. These predictions are shown to be consistent with OECD evidence.

Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing

Abstract: I show that investment in housing plays a crucial role in explaining the patterns of cross-sectional variation in the composition of wealth and the level of stockholdings observed in portfolio composition data. Due to investment in housing, younger and poorer investors have limited financial wealth to invest in stocks, which reduces the benefits of equity market participation. House price risk crowds out stockholdings, and this crowding out effect is larger for low financial net-worth. In the model as in the data leverage is positively correlated with stockholdings. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

The Geography of Equity Analysis

Abstract: I provide evidence that geographically proximate analysts are more accurate than other analysts. Stock returns immediately surrounding forecast revisions suggest that local analysts impact prices more than other analysts. These effects are strongest for firms located in small cities and remote areas. Collectively these results suggest that geographically proximate analysts possess an information advantage over other analysts, and that this advantage translates into better performance. The well-documented underwriter affiliation bias in stock recommendations is concentrated among distant affiliated analysts; recommendations by local affiliated analysts are unbiased. This finding reveals a geographic component to the agency problems in the industry.

RFM and CLV: Using Iso-Value Curves for Customer Base Analysis

Abstract: The authors present a new model that links the well-known RFM (recency, frequency, and monetary value) paradigm with customer lifetime value (CLV). Although previous researchers have made a conceptual link, none has presented a formal model with a well-grounded behavioral “story.” Key to this analysis is the notion of “iso-value” curves, which enable the grouping of individual customers who have different purchasing histories but similar future valuations. Iso-value curves make it easy to visualize the interactions and trade-offs among the RFM measures and CLV. The stochastic model is based on the Pareto/NBD framework to capture the flow of transactions over time and a gamma-gamma submodel for spend per transaction. The authors conduct several holdout tests to demonstrate the validity of the model's underlying components and then use it to estimate the total CLV for a cohort of new customers of the online music site CDNOW. Finally, the authors discuss broader issues and opportunities in the appli...

Adaptation in vertical relationships: beyond incentive conflict

Abstract: In this study, we extend the analysis of adaptation in theories of economic organization beyond traditional considerations of incentive conflict (hold-up). We conceptualize adaptation as coordinated and cooperative response to change, and define the adaptive capacity of a vertical relationship as the ability to generate coordinated and cooperative responses across procurer and supplier to changes in procurement conditions. We draw on the concepts of differentiation and integration to dimensionalize the adaptive capacity of different modes of procurement. Using data on all component classes procured internally and externally by Ford and Chrysler, we show that different procurement modes differ in terms of their adaptive capacity and performance. We also show that performance differences across modes of procurement arise as a function of the match between adaptive capacity and adaptation requirements associated with the exchange, and not only the match between governance form and transaction hazards. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do Suppliers Benefit from Collaborative Relationships with Large Retailers? An Empirical Investigation of Efficient Consumer Response Adoption

Abstract: Collaborative manufacturer–retailer relationships based on efficient consumer response (ECR) have become ubiquitous over the past decade. Yet academic studies of ECR adoption and its impact on marketing relationships are relatively scarce. Inspired by the relational view of competitive advantage, the authors empirically investigate whether the extent to which suppliers of a major retailer adopt ECR has a beneficial impact on their outcomes. The results demonstrate that whereas ECR adoption has a positive impact on supplier economic performance and capability development, it also generates greater perceptions of negative inequity on the part of the supplier. However, retailer capabilities and supplier trust moderate some of these main effects. The overall results are robust with respect to differences in supplier size as well as between branded and private-label suppliers.

Counting Your Customers the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model

Abstract: Today's managers are very interested in predicting the future purchasing patterns of their customers, which can then serve as an input into "lifetime value" calculations. Among the models that provide such capabilities, the Pareto/NBD "counting your customers" framework proposed by Schmittlein et al. 1987 is highly regarded. However, despite the respect it has earned, it has proven to be a difficult model to implement, particularly because of computational challenges associated with parameter estimation. We develop a new model, the beta-geometric/NBD BG/NBD, which represents a slight variation in the behavioral "story" associated with the Pareto/NBD but is vastly easier to implement. We show, for instance, how its parameters can be obtained quite easily in Microsoft Excel. The two models yield very similar results in a wide variety of purchasing environments, leading us to suggest that the BG/NBD could be viewed as an attractive alternative to the Pareto/NBD in most applications.

Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian and Bootstrap Analysis

Abstract: Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and that hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Relative to sorting on OLS alphas, sorting on Bayesian alphas yields a 5.5 percent per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust, and relevant to investors, as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, backfill bias or serial correlation.

Industry Change Through Vertical Disintegration: How and Why Markets Emerged in Mortgage Banking

Abstract: This paper provides an inductive theoretical framework that explains how and why vertical disintegration happens, showing that transaction costs are an incidental feature of industry evolution. I find that gains from intrafirm specialization set off a process of intraorganizational partitioning, which simplifies coordination along parts of the value chain. Likewise, latent gains from trade foster interfirm cospecialization, which leads to information standardization. Given standardized information and simplified coordination, new intermediate markets emerge, breaking up the value chain, allowing new types of vertically specialized firms to participate in an industry, and changing the industry's competitive landscape.

PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate

Abstract: We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics. Established time series and panel methods fail to control for this. Using Eurostat data, we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically. Its half-life, for instance, may fall to as low as eleven months, significantly below the "consensus view" of three to five years.

From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: Us External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege

Abstract: Does the center country of the International Monetary System enjoy an "exorbitant privilege" that significantly weakens its external constraint as has been asserted in some European quarters? Using a newly constructed dataset, we perform a detailed analysis of the historical evolution of US external assets and liabilities at market value since 1952. We find strong evidence of a sizeable excess return of gross assets over gross liabilities. Interestingly, this excess return increased after the collapse of the BrettonWoods fixed exchange rate system. It is mainly due to a "return discount": within each class of assets, the total return (yields and capital gains) that the US has to pay to foreigners is smaller than the total return the US gets on its foreign assets. We also find evidence of a "composition effect": the US tends to borrow short and lend long. As financial globalization accelerated its pace, the US transformed itself from a World Banker into a World Venture Capitalist, investing greater amounts in high yield assets such as equity and FDI. We use these findings to cast some light on the sustainability of the current global imbalances.

Managers, Workers, and Corporate Control

Abstract: If management has high private benefits and a small equity stake, managers and workers are natural allies against takeover threats. Two forces are at play. First, managers can transform employees into a “shark repellent” through long-term labor contracts and thereby reduce the firm’s attractiveness to raiders. Second, employees can act as “white squires” for the incumbent managers. To protect their high wages, they resist hostile takeovers by refusing to sell their shares to the raider or by lobbying against the takeover. The model predicts that wages are inversely correlated with the managerial equity stake, and decline after takeovers. LABOR ECONOMISTS VIEW INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS as being shaped by the conflict between workers and management. Financial economists view corporate governance as the outcome of the diverging interests of shareholders and management. Actually, these two conflicts are present simultaneously and interact. We show that the conflict in corporate governance, when particularly acute, can soften the clash in industrial relations. Managers who place a great value on control and own only a small equity stake have an incentive to pay high wages and not to monitor workers too strictly. Noncontrolling shareholders are those who bear most of the costs of such an employment policy. 1