Ontario Ministry of Transportation

About: Ontario Ministry of Transportation is a government organization based out in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Poison control & Asphalt. The organization has 4652 authors who have published 3882 publications receiving 59011 citations.

Fish disease as a monitor for marine pollution: the case of the North Sea

Abstract: The use of fish diseases to monitor marine pollution is reviewed and evaluated, with particular reference to the North Sea and associated waters Criteria for epidemiological surveys are outlined, an international overview of research is given, and recent studies in the North Sea area are described and evaluated The basic approach is to identify spatial and temporal patterns of disease prevalence, which can be related to pollution A major obstacle is to distinguish effects of pollution from those of other variables, especially as most diseases appear to have a multifactorial aetiology Field studies can be evaluated against a number of criteria: these include the accuracy and precision of prevalence estimates, the extent to which possible causal factors other than pollution are taken into account, and whether or not exposure of the study population to pollution is measured directly A distinction can be made between intensive, thorough studies, which frequently use a histopathological approach, and the more extensive surveys of large numbers of fish for grossly observable lesions Broadly speaking, North American research has emphasized the former approach, and research in the North Sea the latter Nevertheless, although the most comprehensive evidence for a causal relationship between disease and pollution has been gathered in North America, there are also good examples from the North Sea area, particularly in local areas with distinct sources of pollution The data from wider-ranging surveys are more ambiguous: while some provide circumstantial evidence for a role of pollution, the apparent complexity of disease aetiology and the limitations of the epidemiological approach may prevent any clear demonstration of pollution as a cause over wide geographical areas Extensive surveys are nevertheless useful for detecting long-term trends in disease prevalence and ‘hot-spots’ of anomalously high prevalence, and for examining the relationship between disease and a complex of environmental variables For the future, greater emphasis should be placed on the recording of liver lesions, on the measurement of exposure to pollution, and on experimental work

Uncertainty in Traffic Forecasts: Literature Review and New Results for the Netherlands

Abstract: This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Abstract: Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.

Assessment of the effects of cyclic floodplain rejuvenation on flood levels and biodiversity along the Rhine River

Abstract: To reduce flood risks in the Netherlands, measures to increase the flood conveyance capacity of the Rhine River will be implemented. These measures will provide more room for the river and include lowering of the floodplains and excavation of secondary channels. Moreover, these measures provide opportunities for ecological rehabilitation of the floodplains. However, it is expected that floodplain sedimentation and softwood forest development in rehabilitated floodplains will gradually reduce the conveyance capacity and the biodiversity. Therefore, a floodplain management strategy was proposed that would meet both flood protection and nature rehabilitation objectives. This strategy, Cyclic Floodplain Rejuvenation (CFR), aims at mimicking the effects of channel migration by removal of softwood forests, by lowering floodplains or by (re)constructing secondary channels. In this study, the effects of CFR measures on reducing flood levels and enhancing biodiversity along the Waal River were assessed. A one-dimensional hydraulic modelling system was applied together with rule-based models for floodplain vegetation succession and floodplain sedimentation. The model simulations demonstrated that the flood management strategy of Cyclic Floodplain Rejuvenation is able to sustain safe flood levels in the Waal River when about 15% of the total floodplain area is rejuvenated with a return period of 25 to 35 years. The rejuvenation strategy led to a diverse floodplain vegetation distribution that largely complies to the historical reference for the Waal River. Cyclic Floodplain Rejuvenation may be the appropriate answer to solve the dilemma between flood protection and nature rehabilitation in highly regulated rivers. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.