Showing papers in "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change in 2007"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaption strategies.
Abstract: Past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. It is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. However, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the African Sahel. The region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. The local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.
670 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics and present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agro-forestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers.
Abstract: Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
647 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report the results of a privately funded US$20 million program that has engineered, built, and successfully operated a commercial-scale (2 ha), modular, production system for photosynthetic microbes.
Abstract: The only major strategy now being seriously considered for biological mitigation of atmospheric CO2 relies entirely on terrestrial plants. Photosynthetic microbes were the focus of similar consideration in the 1990s. However, two major government-sponsored research programs in Japan and the USA concluded that the requisite technology was not feasible, and those programs were terminated after investing US$117 million and US$25 million, respectively. We report here on the results of a privately funded US$20 million program that has engineered, built, and successfully operated a commercial-scale (2 ha), modular, production system for photosynthetic microbes. The production system couples photobioreactors with open ponds in a two-stage process – a combination that was suggested, but never attempted – and has operated continuously for several years to produce Haematococcus pluvialis. The annually averaged rate of achieved microbial oil production from H. pluvialis is equivalent to <420 GJ ha -1 yr-1, which exceeds the most optimistic estimates of biofuel production from plantations of terrestrial ``energy crops.'' The maximum production rate achieved to date is equivalent to 1014 GJ ha-1 yr-1. We present evidence to demonstrate that a rate of 3200 GJ ha-1 yr-1 is feasible using species with known performance characteristics under conditions that prevail in the existing production system. At this rate, it is possible to replace reliance on current fossil fuel usage equivalent to ∼300 EJ yr-1 – and eliminate fossil fuel emissions of CO2 of ∼6.5 GtC yr-1 – using only 7.3% of the surplus arable land projected to be available by 2050. By comparison, most projections of biofuels production from terrestrial energy crops would require in excess of 80% of surplus arable land. Oil production cost is estimated at $84/bbl, assuming no improvements in current technology. We suggest enhancements that could reduce cost to $50/bbl or less.
614 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the indicators and measures that five past national-level studies have used and examine how and why their approaches have differed, finding that the five studies generally emphasise descriptive measures by aggregating environmental and social conditions.
Abstract: We address the issue of how to develop credible indicators of vulnerability to climate change that can be used to guide the development of adaptation policies. We compare the indicators and measures that five past national-level studies have used and examine how and why their approaches have differed. Other relevant indicator studies of social facets of society as well as vulnerability studies at sub-national level are also examined for lessons regarding best practice. We find that the five studies generally emphasise descriptive measures by aggregating environmental and social conditions. However, they vary greatly both in the types of indicators and measures used and differ substantially in their identification of the most vulnerable countries. Further analysis of scientific approaches underlying indicator selection suggests that the policy relevance of national-level indicators can be enhanced by capturing the processes that shape vulnerability rather than trying to aggregate the state itself. Such a focus can guide the selection of indicators that are representative even when vulnerability varies over time or space. We find that conceptualisation regarding how specific factors and processes influencing vulnerability interact is neither given sufficient consideration nor are assumptions transparently defined in previous studies. Verification has been neglected, yet this process is important both to assess the credibility of any set of measures and to improve our understanding of vulnerability. A fundamental lesson that emerges is the need to enhance our understanding of the causes of vulnerability in order to develop indicators that can effectively aid policy development.
455 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies.
Abstract: Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.
286 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise were studied and it was shown that adaptation would come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided.
Abstract: This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However, the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.
251 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation, as well as key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income.
Abstract: As climate changes due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agriculture will be one of the key human activities affected. Projections show that while overall global food production in the coming decades may keep pace with the food requirements of a growing world population, climate change might worsen existing regional disparities because it will reduce crop yields mostly in lands located at lower latitudes where many developing countries are situated. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are therefore needed to minimize climatic impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. At the same time, agriculture as a sector offers several opportunities to mitigate the portion of global greenhouse gas emissions that are directly dependent upon land use, land-use change, and land-management techniques. This paper reviews issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation. Specifically, as adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture are implemented to alleviate the potential negative effects of climate change, key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income. Under future climate and socio-economic pressures, land managers and farmers will be faced with challenges in regard to selecting those mitigation and adaptation strategies that together meet food, fiber and climate policy requirements.
250 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is exacerbated by soil drainage, plowing, removal of crop residue, biomass burning, subsistence or low-input agriculture, and soil degradation by erosion and other processes.
Abstract: World soils have been a major source of enrichment of atmospheric concentration of CO2 ever since the dawn of settled agriculture, about 10,000 years ago. Historic emission of soil C is estimated at 78 ± 12 Pg out of the total terrestrial emission of 136 ± 55 Pg, and post-industrial fossil fuel emission of 270 ± 30 Pg. Most soils in agricultural ecosystems have lost 50 to 75% of their antecedent soil C pool, with the magnitude of loss ranging from 30 to 60 Mg C/ha. The depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is exacerbated by soil drainage, plowing, removal of crop residue, biomass burning, subsistence or low-input agriculture, and soil degradation by erosion and other processes. The magnitude of soil C depletion is high in coarse-textured soils (e.g., sandy texture, excessive internal drainage, low activity clays and poor aggregation), prone to soil erosion and other degradative processes. Thus, most agricultural soils contain soil C pool below their ecological potential. Adoption of recommend management practices (e.g., no-till farming with crop residue mulch, incorporation of forages in the rotation cycle, maintaining a positive nutrient balance, use of manure and other biosolids), conversion of agriculturally marginal soils to a perennial land use, and restoration of degraded soils and wetlands can enhance the SOC pool. Cultivation of peatlands and harvesting of peatland moss must be strongly discouraged, and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems encouraged especially in developing countries. The rate of SOC sequestration is 300 to 500 Kg C/ha/yr under intensive agricultural practices, and 0.8 to 1.0 Mg/ha/yr through restoration of wetlands. In soils with severe depletion of SOC pool, the rate of SOC sequestration with adoption of restorative measures which add a considerable amount of biomass to the soil, and irrigated farming may be 1.0 to 1.5 Mg/ha/yr. Principal mechanisms of soil C sequestration include aggregation, high humification rate of biosolids applied to soil, deep transfer into the sub-soil horizons, formation of secondary carbonates and leaching of bicarbonates into the ground water. The rate of formation of secondary carbonates may be 10 to 15 Kg/ha/yr, and the rate of leaching of bicarbonates with good quality irrigation water may be 0.25 to 1.0 Mg C/ha/yr. The global potential of soil C sequestration is 0.6 to 1.2 Pg C/yr which can off-set about 15% of the fossil fuel emissions.
233 citations
TL;DR: In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions as mentioned in this paper, and as a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated by other countries.
Abstract: The world is moving toward efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction efforts may involve the agricultural sector through options such as planting of trees, altering crop and livestock management, and increasing production of biofuels. However, such options can be competitive with domestic food production. In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions. As a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated in other countries.
173 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been used to promote smallholder agroforestry systems in Southeast Asia, which are tree-and species-rich systems producing non-wood and wood products for both home use and market sale.
Abstract: Most smallholder agroforestry systems in Southeast Asia are tree- and species-rich systems producing non-wood and wood products for both home use and market sale. Due to their high biomass, these systems contain large carbon (C) stocks. While the systems of individual farmers are of limited size, on a per area basis smallholder systems accumulate significant amounts of C, equaling the amount of C stored in some secondary forests of similar age. Their ability to simultaneously address smallholders’ livelihood needs and store large amounts of C makes smallholder systems viable project types under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, with its dual objective of emissions reduction and sustainable development. Smallholder systems have not developed in areas where enabling conditions do not exist. A CDM project that facilitates a minimum threshold of enabling conditions that make smallholder agroforestation possible should qualify for C credits. To secure smallholder confidence, the agroforestry systems promoted through a CDM project must be socially and economically viable independent of C payments. To assure system productivity and profitability, projects should provide farmers with technical and marketing assistance. Additionally, project sites should meet the following preconditions: areas of underutilized low-biomass landuse systems available for rehabilitation; smallholders interested in tree farming; accessible markets for tree products; supportive local governments; sufficient infrastructure; and transparent and equitable relationships between project partners. Questions of leakage and additionality should not be problematic and can be addressed through the project design, establishment of quantifiable baseline data and facilitating enabling conditions. However, smallholder-focused CDM projects would have high transaction costs. The subsequent challenge is thus to develop mechanisms that reduce the costs of: (a) making information (e.g., technology, markets) more accessible to multiple clients; (b) facilitating and enforcing smallholder agreements and (c) designing feasible monitoring systems.
129 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions, and conclude that the greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets.
Abstract: The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis.
TL;DR: In this article, a vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation to climatic variability and change, focusing on the system of concern, in this case, farms in Perth County, Ontario.
Abstract: A vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation to climatic variability and change. The methodological approach focuses on the system of concern, in this case, farms in Perth County, Ontario. Twenty-five interviews and four focus groups with farmers were used to identify climate risks on farms, and to document farmers’ responses to conditions and risks associated with climate and weather. The information collected describes a complex decision-making environment, with many forces both external and internal to the farm operation influencing management decisions. Within this environment, climate and weather are consistently referred to as a significant force influencing both farm operations and management decisions. Farmers have, however, developed a wide-range of anticipatory and reactive management strategies to manage climate risks. While these have potential to address future climate-related risks and opportunities, there are limits to adaptation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events may exceed their adaptive capacities. Farmers are also generally unaware and/or unconcerned about future climate change, which could constrain opportunities to adopt long-term climate change adaptations.
TL;DR: In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change.
Abstract: Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.
TL;DR: The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) made a preliminary effort to integrate an analysis of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impact vulnerabilities in two ways: top-down and bottom-up as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Between 1999 and 2003, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) made a preliminary effort to integrate an analysis of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impact vulnerabilities in two ways: top-down and bottom-up. This paper briefly describes these early experiments and summarizes their findings, both about climate change vulnerability reduction and about the challenges of integrated analysis, expanding upon results previously reported [Wilbanks et al. (Environment 45/5:28–38, 2003); ORNL (Integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation as responses to concerns about impacts of global climate change, ORNL Working paper 2003); ORNL and CUSAT 2003; Wilbanks 2005].
TL;DR: The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical model, bootstrap resampling and data provided by the International Commission On Large Dams (ICOLD) World register of dams was used to estimate that global large dams might annually release about 104 ± 7.2 Tg CH4 to the atmosphere through reservoir surfaces, tur-bines and spillways.
Abstract: By means of a theoretical model, bootstrap resampling and data provided by the International Commission On Large Dams (ICOLD (2003) World register of dams. http://www.icold-cigb.org) we found that global large dams might annually release about 104 ± 7.2 Tg CH4 to the atmosphere through reservoir surfaces, tur- bines and spillways. Engineering technologies can be implemented to avoid these emissions, and to recover the non-emitted CH4 for power generation. The imme- diate benefit of recovering non-emitted CH4 from large dams for renewable energy production is the mitigation of anthropogenic impacts like the construction of new large dams, the actual CH4 emissions from large dams, and the use of unsustainable fossil fuels and natural gas reserves. Under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, such technologies can be recognized as promising alternatives for human adaptations to climate change concerning sustainable power generation, particularly in developing nations owning a considerable number of large dams. In view of novel technologies to extract CH4 from large dams, we estimate that roughly 23 ± 2.6, 2.6 ± 0.2 and 32 ± 5.1 Tg CH4 could be used as an environmentally sound option for power generation in Brazil, China and India, respectively. For the whole world this number may increase to around 100 ± 6.9 Tg CH4.
TL;DR: In this article, some preliminary findings about appropriate integrated portfolios are offered, along with several implications for climate policy, based on the papers in this special issue, and several preliminary findings are offered.
Abstract: Integrating mitigation and adaptation (M&A) is a practical reality for climate change response policy, despite a range of conceptual and methodological challenges. Based on the papers in this special issue, some preliminary findings about appropriate integrated portfolios are offered, along with several implications for climate policy.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, which range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change.
Abstract: Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse specific institutional networks involved in climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and determine how different stakeholders perceive their role vis-a-vis climate change adaptation.
Abstract: Climate change is a multi-dimensional issue and in terms of adaptation numerous state and non-state actors are involved from global to national and local scales. The aim of this paper is first to analyse specific institutional networks involved in climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and second to determine how different stakeholders perceive their role vis-a-vis climate change adaptation. Within the South African context there is a gap in understanding and evaluating how institutional networks operate and thus the findings of this work may help inform and strengthen such relationships in the future. Results showed that few institutions fully understand the implications of adaptation and their roles and responsibilities have not yet been properly defined. Constraints relating to capacity, lack of awareness and poor information flow need to be addressed. Climate change is perceived as an important issue although problems such as poverty reduction and job creation remain national priorities. Most importantly this research has demonstrated how adaptation challenges the hierarchical manner in which government works and a more collaborative approach to climate change adaptation is needed. Adaptation needs to be mainstreamed and institutional networks need to be strengthened in order for adaptation mechanisms to be effectively implemented.
TL;DR: In this paper, the implications of climate change for insurers and specific examples of insurance-relevant syner- gisms between adaptation and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use.
Abstract: As the world's largest industry, the insurance sector is both an aggregator of the impacts of climate change and a market actor able to play a material role in decreasing the vulnerability of human and natural systems. This article reviews the implications of climate change for insurers and provides specific examples of insurance-relevant syner- gisms between adaptation and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use. Although insurance is far from a ''silver bullet'' in addressing climate change, it offers significant capacity and ability to understand, manage, and spread risks associated with weather-related events, more so today in industrialized countries but increasingly so in developing countries and economies in transition. Certain measures that integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation also bolster insurers' solvency and profitability, thereby increasing their appeal. Promising strategies involve innovative products and systems for delivering insurance and the use of new technologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to disaster-related losses and support sustainable development. However, climate change promises to erode the insurability of many risks, and insurance responses can be more reactive than proactive, resulting in compromised insurance affordability and/or availability. Public-private partnerships involving insurers and entities such as the international relief community offer considerable potential, but have not been adequately explored.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors.
Abstract: Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.
TL;DR: In this article, the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation is discussed and an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries is suggested, centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution.
Abstract: This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect and conclude that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits.
Abstract: This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse the forest policies of Pakistan and their implications for sustainable forest management and livelihood security of forest dependent people, and they propose a sustainable, workable, research-based, and people-friendly forest policy enable to cater to the changing needs of stakeholders including government.
Abstract: Pakistan has very low forest cover, but these forests are very diverse in nature and of significant importance for the livelihood security of millions of rural people who live in and around these forests. Policies, institutions and processes form the context within which individ- uals and households construct and adapt livelihood strategies, on the other hand these institu- tionally shaped livelihood strategies may have an impact on the sustainability of natural resource use. The present paper aims to critically analyse the forest policies of Pakistan. Implications for sustainable forest management and livelihood security of forest dependent people are also given. The first forest policy of Pakistan was announced in 1955 followed by the forest policies of 1962, 1975, 1980, 1988 as part of the National Agricultural Policy, 1991, and the latest in 2001. Most of the forest policies were associated with the change of government. There was much rhetoric in some recent policies regarding the concept of "participation" and "sustainable liveli- hoods" but in practice these policies are also replica of the previously top-down, autocratic and non-participatory forest policies. Pakistan needs to develop a sustainable, workable, research-based, and people-friendly forest policy enable to catering to the changing needs of stakeholders including government.
TL;DR: This paper used the likelihood of flooding along Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in India to explore the hypothesis that adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as complements rather than sustitutes, and showed that adaptation may fail entirely regardless of how much mitigation is applied.
Abstract: This paper uses the likelihood of flooding along Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in India to explore the hypothesis that adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as complements rather than sustitutes. For futures where climate change will produce smooth, monotonic and manageable effects, adopting a mitigation strategy is shown to increase the ability of adaptation to reduce the likelihood of crossing critical threshold of tolerable climate. For futures where climate change will produce variable impacts overtime, though, it is possible that mitigation will make adaptation less productive for some time intervals. In cases of exaggerated climate change, adaptation may fail entirely regardless of how much mitigation is applied. Judging the degree of complementarity is therefore an empirical question because the relative efficacy of adaptation is site specific and path dependent. It follows that delibrations over climate policy should rely more on detailed analyses of how the distributions of possible impacts of climate might change over space and time.
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain's islands (36 Islands).
Abstract: This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km2 if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km2 under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km2 under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km2, if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km2. Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km2.A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the role of decentralized renewable energy (DRE) projects as a simultaneously mitigative and adaptive response to climate change, and develop a general conceptual framework that illustrates how introducing modern energy services through DRE can stabilize the ecological and social determinants of climate change vulnerability, while performing a critical climate change mitigation function.
Abstract: This paper explores the role of decentralized renewable energy (DRE) projects play as a simultaneously mitigative and adaptive response to climate change. We develop a general conceptual framework that illustrates how introducing modern energy services through decentralized renewable energy can stabilize the ecological and social determinants of climate change vulnerability, while performing a critical climate change mitigation function. This framework is developed through a high-level overview of the key implications of rural energy deprivation: deforestation and ecosystem degradation (with significant greenhouse gas emissions implications), chronic rural poverty, and high vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change. We then explore global sustainable development pathways and the integral role that decentralized renewable energy can play in stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We then describe how mitigation and adaptation synergies provide avenues for integrating sustainable development with climate policy, contextualized with respect to key relationships between the Millennium Development Goals and access to energy. We then turn to the related issue of poverty and climate change in the context of how climate stresses exacerbate poverty by impairing the ecosystem services upon which the poor rely heavily. The conceptual framework concludes with a full description of the role DREs play in rural agroecosystems, particularly how DREs can enhance the flow of regulatory and provisioning ecosystem services, and expand livelihood opportunities—all of which builds adaptive capacity for climate change. The paper concludes with some comments and recommendations for enhancing the constructive role for DRE in overcoming the perceived divide between climate change mitigation and adaptation policy.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors experiment with a range of approaches based on empirical evidence for the setting of baselines and estimation of leakage in projects in developing Asia and Latin America in developing countries.
Abstract: There is a growing acceptance that the environmentalbenefits of forests extend beyond traditional ecological benefits andinclude the mitigation of climate change. Interest in forestry mitigationactivities has led to the inclusion of forestry practices at the projectlevel in international agreements. Climate change activities place newdemands on participating institutions to set baselines, establishadditionality, determine leakage, ensure permanence, and monitor andverify a project's greenhouse gas benefits. These issues are common toboth forestry and other types of mitigation projects. They demandempirical evidence to establish conditions under which such projects canprovide sustained long term global benefits. This Special Issue reportson papers that experiment with a range of approaches based on empiricalevidence for the setting of baselines and estimation of leakage inprojects in developing Asia and Latin America.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the low critical temperature of 33 K, i.e., hydrogen is a gas at room temperature, which is the temperature at which it is not suitable as an energy carrier.
Abstract: Hydrogen storage and transportation or distribution is closely linked together. Hydrogen can be distributed continuously in pipelines or batch wise by ships, trucks, railway or airplanes. All batch transportation requires a storage system but also pipelines can be used as pressure storage system. Hydrogen exhibits the highest heating value per weight of all chemical fuels. Furthermore, hydrogen is regenerative and environment friendly. There are two reasons why hydrogen is not the major fuel of toady’s energy consumption: First of all, hydrogen is just an energy carrier. And, although it is the most abundant element in the universe, it has to be produced, since on earth it only occurs in the form of water. This implies that we have to pay for this energy, which results in a difficult economic task, because since the industrialization we are used to consuming energy for free. The second difficulty with hydrogen as an energy carrier is the low critical temperature of 33 K, i.e. hydrogen is a gas at room temperature. For mobile and in many cases also for stationary applications the volumetric and gravimetric density of hydrogen in a storage system is crucial. Hydrogen can be stored by six different methods and phenomena: high pressure gas cylinders (up to 800 bar), liquid hydrogen in cryogenic tanks (at 21 K), adsorbed hydrogen on materials with a large specific surface area (at T < 100 K), absorbed on interstitial sites in a host metal (at ambient pressure and temperature), chemically bond in covalent and ionic compounds (at ambient pressure), oxidation of reactive metals e.g. Li, Na, Mg, Al, Zn with water. These metals easily react with water to the corresponding hydroxide and liberate the hydrogen from the water. Finally, the metal hydroxides can be thermally reduced to the metals in a solar furnace.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model.
Abstract: To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests Here, the potential to complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface is explored Preliminary estimates derived using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 076 Wm− 2 Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change While a scoping analysis indicates the technical feasibility of sufficiently enhancing human settlement and grassland albedos to levels needed to achieve reductions in radiative forcing projected here, additional study is required on two fronts Firstly, the modelled radiative forcing reductions are static estimates As they would generate climate feedbacks, more detailed dynamic climate modelling would be needed to confirm the stationary value of the radiative forcing reduction that would result from land surface albedo amplification Secondly, land surface albedo amplification schemes may have important economic and environmental impacts Accurate ex ante impact assessments would be required to validate global implementation of related measures as a viable mitigation strategy