Showing papers in "Pacific-basin Finance Journal in 2008"

Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares

Abstract: This study examines herding behavior in dual-listed Chinese A-share and B-share stocks. We find evidence of herding within both the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets that are dominated by domestic individual investors, and also within both B-share markets, in which foreign institutional investors are the main participants. Herding occurs in both rising and falling market conditions. Herding behavior by A-share investors in the Shanghai market is more pronounced under conditions of rising markets, high trading volume, and high volatility, while no asymmetry is apparent in the B-share market.

Corporate governance and tunneling: Empirical evidence from China

Abstract: We analyze asset appropriation by principal shareholders in China and uncover the following relationships: (1) outsiders in the board of directors, audit without non-clean opinion, and dispersed ownership prevent operational tunneling; (2) belonging to a business group and issuing B or H share exacerbate asset appropriation Institutional ownership does not prevent the embezzlement of assets and is endogenous, as investors select companies with good governance Besides governance mechanisms, stock characteristics matter in that larger firms exhibit less tunneling, whereas highly leveraged firms experience the opposite We find a decline of tunneling in 2001, which might be due to economic reforms

The Impact of Corporate Governance on Corporate Performance: Evidence from Japan

Abstract: Employing a unique data set provided by Governance Metrics International, which rates firms using six different corporate governance dimensions, we analyze whether Japanese firms with many governance provisions have a better corporate performance than firms with few governance provisions. Employing an overall index, we find that well-governed firms significantly outperform poorly governed firms by up to 15% a year. Using indices for various governance categories, we find that not all categories affect corporate performance. Governance provisions that deal with financial disclosure, shareholder rights, and remuneration do affect stock price performance. The impact of provisions that deal with board accountability, market for control, and corporate behavior is limited.

Behavioral finance in Asia

Abstract: This paper introduces the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal's special issue on behavioral finance in Asia. We first briefly discuss behavioral finance in general, and then we explain why behavioral finance in Asia is an important topic worth studying. We describe the papers published in this special issue, and in doing so, we place the papers within the appropriate context of the growing literature on behavioral finance. We close by acknowledging the referees of this special issue and by offering brief concluding thoughts.

Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds

Abstract: We employ the stochastic dominance approach (that utilizes the entire returns distribution) to rank the performance of Asian hedge funds as traditional mean-variance and CAPM approaches are inappropriate given non-normal returns We find both first-order and higherorder stochastic dominance relationships amongst the funds and conclude that investors would be better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their utility For higherorder dominant funds, risk-averse investors can maximize their expected utility but not their wealth We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the hedge fund selection process

Momentum strategies and stock returns: Chinese evidence

Abstract: This paper investigates the profitability of momentum investment strategies for equities listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We also investigate the role of trading volume to examine whether there is any relationship between stock returns and past trading volume for Chinese equities. We find evidence of substantial momentum profits during the period 1995 to 2005 and that momentum is a pervasive feature of stock returns for the market investigated in this paper. Our findings suggest that investors can generate superior returns by investing in strategies unrelated to market movements. We also investigate the potential of past volume to explain momentum profits, and find no strong link between past volume and momentum profits. Our findings also show a strong momentum effect around earnings announcements but the magnitude of these returns is small in relation to the average monthly returns earned in the early months following portfolio formation.

Individual investors and gender similarities in an emerging stock market

Abstract: We study the investment behavior of men and women in an emerging stock market. Unlike developed markets, men and women in the People's Republic of China are equally represented. Men have larger average portfolios than women (RMB 155,121 vs. RMB 118,461) and place slightly larger trades (RMB 37,479 vs. RMB 33,861). More importantly, males and females exhibit similar behavior along three key dimensions: (1) The degree of home bias is similar across genders – both men and women over-weight local stocks by 9% relative to the market portfolio. (2) The portfolio performances of males and females are not statistically different. (3) Men appear to trade more intensively than women before controlling for factors such as number of stocks held and number of trading rights. After controlling for these factors, there is no significant difference in trading intensity. We use survival analysis to control for both observable and unobservable characteristics when studying trading intensity. These controls prove crucial when comparing behavior across groups of investors.

Conducting event studies with Asia-Pacific security market data

Abstract: We investigate the effectiveness of several well-known parametric and non-parametric event study test statistics with security price data from the major Asia-Pacific security markets. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments with actual daily security returns data reveal that the parametric test statistics are prone to misspecification with Asia-Pacific returns data. Two non-parametric tests, a rank test [Corrado and Zivney (Corrado, C.J., Zivney, T.L., 1992, The specification and power of the sign test in event study hypothesis tests using daily stock returns, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 27(3), 465-478)] and a sign test [Cowan (Cowan, A.R., 1992, Non-parametric event study tests, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 1(4), 343–358)] were the best performers overall with market model excess returns computed using an equal weight index.

Culture and stock price clustering: Evidence from The Peoples' Republic of China

Abstract: Price clustering is the tendency of prices to be observed more frequently at some numbers than others. It results from human bias and from haziness or imprecise beliefs about underlying value. To many Chinese, the number 8 is attractive because it is considered “lucky”, while 4 is “unlucky” and to be avoided. We conduct a tightly controlled experiment to determine whether a culturally heuristic number preference exists, by studying trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which historically have been relatively segmented along cultural lines. Our results are extremely clear. For much of our sample period (1994–2002), the prices of A-shares (mostly held by Chinese organisations or individuals) traded on the Shanghai stock exchange were more than twice as likely to end in 8, than 4. Similarly, for A-shares traded on the Shenzhen stock exchange a preference for 8 was found. Preference for 8 on both exchanges was initially very strong, but has weakened somewhat over time. It is observed in opening, high and low as well as closing prices, reinforcing its pervasiveness. Overall, the cultural preference manifest in the prices of A-shares is widespread in both markets and its presence is accentuated once other factors that influence price clustering are taken into account. The preference for 8 was much weaker for B-shares, which largely have been held by foreigners.

Debt maturity structure of Chinese companies

Abstract: Numerous studies have focused on the theoretical and empirical aspects of corporate capital structure since the 1960s. As a new branch of capital structure, however, debt maturity structure has not yet received as much attention as the debt-equity choice. We use the existing theories of corporate debt maturity to investigate the potential determinants of debt maturity of the Chinese listed firms. In addition to the traditional estimation methods, the system-GMM technique is used to explicitly control for the endogeneity problem. We find that the size of the firm, asset maturity and liquidity have significant effects in extending the maturity of debt employed by Chinese companies. The amount of collateralized assets and growth opportunities also tend to be important. However, proxies for a firm's quality and effective tax rate apparently report mixed or unexpected results. Debt market and equity market conditions are also examined in relation to corporate loan maturity. The system-GMM results show that market factors seem to influence debt maturity decisions. Finally, corporate equity ownership structure has also been found to have some impact on debt maturity mix.

The house money effect and local traders on the Sydney Futures Exchange

Abstract: The “house money effect” describes the psychological tendency of investors to become increasingly risk-seeking immediately following monetary gains. We observe evidence consistent with this behavioral bias in the trades executed by professional futures traders (“locals”) on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Previous research demonstrates the house money effect among participants in laboratory settings but not among actual traders. By distinguishing qualitatively between gains and losses, rather than treating these as merely positive and negative values of a single psychological driver, we test for loss aversion and the house money effect simultaneously. Contrary to previous studies, no significant evidence is found of loss aversion.

Investors' trading behavior and performance: Online versus non-online equity trading in Korea

Abstract: This paper investigates the trading behavior and performance of online equity investors in comparison to non-online equity investors in Korea. While online trading has become more prevalent in financial markets, the role of online investors and their impact on prices has attracted little empirical scrutiny. We study the trading activity of foreign investors, local institutions and individual traders between 2001 and 2005 and compare their performance based on whether or not trading is performed online. Our main finding is that in aggregate, online investors perform poorly in comparison to non-online investors. Between investor-types, foreigners show the best returns, followed by local institutions. Individual investors provide liquidity to other investor-types, particularly when trading online. On balance, the main implication of our findings is that the disadvantage suffered by individual investors is mainly explained by their online trades.

Executive pay and firm performance in the Philippines

Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic evidence on the nature of the relation between executive compensation and firm performance in the Philippines. Comparable to studies of Japan, Korea, and China, we find a positive relation between executive compensation and performance in the Philippines for those firms not affiliated to a corporate group, but that this relation does not hold for affiliated firms. We conclude that the substantial portion of the Philippine economy that is under the control of group networks incentivize managers in ways other than through use of pay–performance schemes.

The effect of price limits on intraday volatility and information asymmetry

Abstract: We investigate the effect of price limits on intra-day volatility and information asymmetry using transactions data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Proponents of price limits argue that they provide an opportunity for investors to reevaluate market information and make more rational trading decisions. We identify three different limit hits – closing, single, and consecutive – and hypothesize that only the consecutive limit hits are likely to provide such an opportunity, namely, to counter investor overreaction (volatility hypothesis) and to enhance information revelation (information asymmetry hypothesis). Our empirical evidence supports the volatility hypothesis. Our findings generate important policy implications for stock markets that have price limits.

Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values

Abstract: The stock market in Thailand experienced several apparent boom and bust cycles in recent years, which raises the question of whether equity prices in Thailand reflect their fundamental values. This paper examines whether the Thai equity market was characterized by rational expectations bubbles over the sample period from June 1975 to June 2006. The cointegration test provides evidence of no long-run relationship among prices, dividends and earnings, indicating the presence of a rational bubble. The results are confirmed by the non-parametric duration dependence test, which shows evidence of negative duration dependence in runs of positive returns, consistent with the presence of rational expectations bubbles. Further analysis reveals departures from fundamental values in the initial sample subperiod ending with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. However, prices appear to be in line with fundamentals in the more recent post-1997 subperiod.

Testing pecking order prediction from the viewpoint of managerial optimism: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan ☆

Abstract: In this paper we examine the relation between managerial optimism and corporate financing decisions by empirically testing Heaton's [Heaton, J., 2002, Managerial optimism and corporate finance, Financial Management 31, 33–45.] model. Heaton showed that, besides information asymmetry, managerial optimism can also lead to pecking order preference in financing decisions. We test whether pecking order preference performs better when managers are more optimistic. Our measure of managerial optimism is constructed from management earnings forecasts. Managers are more likely to issue forecasts that are higher than the realized earnings when they are optimistic in their assessment of future outcomes. Using listed Taiwanese companies as our sample, we find that optimistic CEOs exhibit a stronger relation between debt issue and financing deficit, when compared with non-optimistic ones. These findings are consistent with the predictions of Heaton's model.

The role of investment banks in M&A transactions: Fees and services

Abstract: We examine the pricing and performance of advisers in M&A transactions. We determine adviser quality on the basis of a contemporaneous market share measure and show that high quality advisers receive higher M&A advisory fees. High quality advisers also complete deals faster, but their superiority is not reflected in increasing the likelihood of deal completion or delivering greater abnormal equity returns to their clients. It is well known that stock bids are received more negatively than cash bids, so we further partition the sample of acquirers by consideration type and examine the abnormal returns of each partition. We find that high quality investment banks are able to differentiate themselves by delivering greater abnormal returns to their acquirer clients in deals involving stock.

Interaction of investor trades and market volatility: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between market volatility and investor trades by identifying who supplies and demands market liquidity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Because the different trading patterns of various investor types such as individual investors, institutional investors, and foreign investors affect market liquidity differently, we find that market volatility fluctuates significantly depending on which investor types participate in trade. We show that market volatility increases by more than 50% from the average level when there are greater buy trades by momentum investors that demand liquidity and there are less sell trades by contrarian (or profit-taking) investors that supply liquidity. On the other hand, volatility dampens by more than 57% when there are greater sell trades by profit-taking investors, mostly by domestic investors, while there are less momentum buy trades.

Auctions versus book-built IPOs in Japan: A comparison of aftermarket volatility

Abstract: In a recent theoretical paper, Sherman [Sherman, A.E., 2005, Global trends in IPO methods: Book building versus auctions with endogenous entry, Journal of Financial Economics 78, 615–649.] proposes that: “If book building leads to greater expected underpricing relative to uniform price or discriminatory auctions, then it should also lead to less volatility in aftermarket trading…”. In this paper, we study a Japanese sample and find that book-built IPOs exhibit greater underpricing and higher aftermarket volatility compared to price-discriminatory auctions. Aftermarket volatility wanes with seasoning in both sub-samples, but the book-built volatility levels are persistently higher than those for auctions for as long as one year after the IPO issue date.

Behavioral explanations of trading volume and short-horizon price patterns: An investigation of seven Asia-Pacific markets☆

Abstract: We investigate whether behavioral postulations offer any implicit explanation of the country-varying relation between trading volume and price pattern among short-horizon winners/losers in seven Pacific-Basin markets during the period 1990 to 2000. Our findings lend credence to the Lee and Swaminathan [Lee, C. and Swaminathan, B., 2000. Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance 55, 2017–2069.] Momentum Life Cycle explanation that high (low) volume winners (losers) are more likely to experience price reversals, whereas high (low) volume losers (winners), price momentum, in the subsequent period. This observation is especially pronounced in Hong Kong. Other models such as those based on an information diffusion process and overconfidence in glamour stocks offer limited explanation for the relation.

Price reaction to rights issues in the Indian capital market

Abstract: This study examines securities price reaction to announcements of rights issues by listed Indian firms during the period 1997–2005. We document a positive but statistically insignificant price reaction to such announcements. The price reaction is significantly more negative for firms with a family group affiliation compared to firms with no family group affiliation. The notable differential price reaction between firms with and without a family group affiliation can be explained by the “tunneling hypothesis.” For firms affiliated with a family group, we surmise that investors perceive that the proceeds of the rights issue may be misused for the benefit of the controlling shareholder. We also find that higher levels of individual shareholding in the firm are associated with a more positive price reaction to the announcement.

The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world

Abstract: We examine the link between the accuracy of consensus analysts' dividend forecasts, earnings predictability and dividend policies of firms in 39 countries from 1995 to 2004. For firms that display stronger dividend smoothing, as modeled by Lintner [Lintner, J., 1956. Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review 46, 97–113], there is a lower correlation between dividend and earnings forecast errors, with less of the earnings uncertainty being passed into dividend uncertainty. The link between earnings and dividend forecast errors is weaker in common-law, capital market-based countries and in countries with well-developed financial (debt and equity) markets, where firm managers have greater incentives to smooth dividends and to use dividends for signaling.

Hubris amongst Japanese bidders

Abstract: We consider the issue of hubris in the Japanese mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market. Although prior research suggests that hubris should be and is less severe in the Japanese market, our findings suggest that it still has a significant presence. Using past (excess) market return as a proxy for the likelihood of hubris, we find that high hubris bidders frequently have negative event period abnormal returns, while low hubris bidders have positive event period abnormal returns. Given the importance of keiretsu in Japan and their similarity to Korean chaebols we consider these results in light of the alternative hypothesis of tunneling, which explains similar results in Korea. Finally we consider whether the results are driven by better performing bidders using acquisitions to pay in stock while poorer performing bidders choose to pay in cash. Our results are largely consistent with the hubris hypothesis where over-confident managers may engage in value-destroying M&A.

Investment returns under right- and left-wing governments in Australasia☆

Abstract: This paper considers the link between ruling political parties and stock, property, and bond returns in Australasia. Australia and New Zealand provide an ideal setting as their political systems allow a precise examination of the influences of political parties. We find higher inflation under left-leaning governments and this flows through to higher property returns during their terms. Stock markets tend to do better during right-leaning governments when inflation is lower. While there is no clear political cycle in total bond returns we find bond capital losses during terms governed by the left and capital gains are evident under right-wing governments.

Evaluating the impact of market reforms on Value-at-Risk forecasts of Chinese A and B shares

Abstract: This paper analyses the time-varying conditional correlations between Chinese A and B share returns using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R.F. (2002), “Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339–350.]. The results show that the conditional correlations increased substantially following the B share market reform, whereby Chinese investors were permitted to purchase B shares. However, this increase in correlations was found to have begun well before the B share market reform. This result has significant implication relating to the structure of the information flow between the markets for the two classes of shares. Value-at-Risk (VaR) threshold forecasts are used to analyse the importance of accommodating dynamic conditional correlations between Chinese A and B shares, and thus reflects the impact of the changes in information flow on the risk evaluation of a diversified portfolio. The competing VaR forecasts are analysed using the Unconditional Coverage, Serial Independence and Conditional Coverage tests of Christoffersen [Christoffersen (1998), “Evaluating Interval Forecasts”, International Economic Review, 39, 841–862], and the Time Until First Failure Test of Kupiec [Kupiec, P.H., (1995), “Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurements Models”, Journal of Derivatives, 73–84]. The results offer mild support for the DCC model over its constant conditional correlation counterpart.

The role of salience in portfolio formation

Abstract: We analyze the likelihood of a stock being included in an investor's portfolio, utilizing a dataset which holds the information opportunity set constant for each of the over 1000 student investors in our sample. Investors rely on the availability heuristic: salience (the number of stories in the national press about a stock in the month before the portfolios are formed) captures over 50% of the variation in our dependent variable.

Banks as lenders and shareholders: Evidence from Japan

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the main bank's equity–debt structure, (ie, equity stakes and debt claims) on firm performance and financial policies in Japan over the period 1977–1987 Results show that firms with main bank equity stakes have lower performance than those without However, among firms with main bank equity stakes, the equity–debt structure of claims has a positive effect on firm performance The positive effect of the main bank's equity–debt structure is found to be greater in group-affiliated firms than in independent firms The main bank maximizes its own interests by charging a higher interest rate when its equity stakes are relatively less than its debt claims and by prompting firms to pay more dividends when its equity stakes are relatively high

Sudden stops and liability dollarization: Evidence from Asia's financial intermediaries

Abstract: Before the currency crisis of 1997–1998, East Asian financial intermediaries borrowed heavily in international markets. During the crisis, the intermediaries' stock market value declined sharply, and a sizable fraction of the institutions were closed or nationalized. We investigate how the short-term and the foreign-currency nature of the intermediaries' international borrowing contributed to these outcomes. From the impact of long-term international debt on the stock returns of surviving intermediaries, we observe the negative effects of the foreign-currency nature of international debt (liability dollarization). From the impact of short-term international debt on the likelihood of firm failure and on the size of surviving intermediaries' assets and liabilities, we observe the negative effects of the short-term nature of international debt (sudden stops).

The profitability of asset sales as an explanation of asset divestitures

Abstract: Using Korean fixed asset divestiture data, I extend the investigation of the financing hypothesis of divestitures proposed by Lang et al. (Lang, L., Poulsen, A., Stulz, R., 1995. Asset sales, firm performance, and the agency costs of managerial discretion, Journal of Financial Economics 37, 3.37). In particular, I take into account the profitability of announced asset divestitures and I employ a unique sample constructed to avoid effects that might confound the results. I also take into account the financial condition of the selling firms. The results are consistent with the financing hypothesis proposed by Lang et al. and show that the financing hypothesis of divestitures is robust to controls for the profitability of asset sales and the financial condition of selling firms.

Warrants in IPOs: Evidence from Hong Kong

Abstract: We examine whether the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed firms include warrants in their initial public offerings (IPOs) to signal their quality. We show that IPOs with warrants have higher profitability and better asset utilization rates compared to IPOs without warrants. We also report evidence that after controlling for the level of retained ownership, the proportion of the firm value sold as warrants increases in firm's riskiness. The results from the self-selection model reveal that firms include warrants in their offerings to reduce underpricing relative to what it would have been in the absence of warrants. We conclude that warrants are more likely to be used for signaling purposes rather than as mechanisms to reduce the agency costs of free cash flow.