Showing papers in "Scottish Journal of Political Economy in 2006"

Research and development in small and medium-sized enterprises: the role of financial constraints and public funding

Abstract: This paper presents microeconometric evidence on financing constraints for research and development activities in German small- and medium-sized firms (SME). Special attention is paid to the role of public research and development (R&D) subsidies. For this purpose SMEs in West and East Germany are compared because these regions are very different in their supply of public R&D funding. The empirical evidence suggests that West German SMEs are financially constrained in their R&D activities by both internal and external resources. In East Germany, firms are not sensitive to external constraints, possibly due to high public R&D subsidies. The results show that R&D in East Germany is to a large extent driven by public subsidies and that the usual financial market mechanisms are dysfunctional with respect to R&D in this region.

Job satisfaction of the highly educated: the role of gender, academic tenure, and earnings

Abstract: The determinants of job satisfaction are estimated for PhD-level scientists in the United States across academic and nonacademic sectors. In initial estimates, female scientists report lower job satisfaction than males in academia but higher job satisfaction than males in the nonacademic sector. While academic scientists with tenure have substantially greater job satisfaction than nonacademic scientists, we show that the magnitude of this influence varies by gender. After correcting for the lower evaluation placed by females both on earnings and on tenure, female academic scientists actually match nonacademic scientists in reporting greater job satisfaction than men.

The determinants of export performance: evidence for manufacturing plants in ireland and northern ireland

Abstract: The dramatic GDP and export growth of Ireland over the last decade forms a marked contrast with that of its nearest neighbour Northern Ireland. In Ireland, export volume growth averaged 15.5% p.a. from 1991 to 1999 compared with 6.3% from Northern Ireland. Using data on individual manufacturing plants this paper considers the determinants of export performance in the two areas. Larger, externally owned plants with higher skill levels are found to have the highest export propensities in both areas. Other influences (plant age, R&D, etc.) prove more strongly conditional on location, plant size, and ownership. Structural factors (e.g. ownership, industry) explain almost all of the difference in export propensity between larger plants in Northern Ireland and Ireland but only around one-third of that between smaller plants. Significant differences are also evident between plants in terms of their sources of new technology. For indigenously owned plants, inhouse R&D is important. For externally owned plants, R&D conducted elsewhere in the group - typically outside Ireland and Northern Ireland - proves more significant. This external dependency and lower than expected export propensity on the part of small plants in Northern Ireland represent significant policy challenges for the future.© 2006 Scottish Economic Society. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Productive government expenditure in monetary business cycle models

Abstract: This paper assesses the transmission of fiscal policy shocks in a New Keynesian framework where government expenditures contribute to aggregate production. It is shown that even if the impact of government expenditures on production is small, this assumption helps to reconcile the models’ predictions about fiscal policy effects with recent empirical evidence. In particular, it is shown that government expenditures can cause a rise in private consumption, real wages, and employment if the government share is not too large and public finance does not solely rely on distortionary taxation. When government expenditures are partially financed by public debt, unit labor costs fall in response to a fiscal expansion, such that inflation tends to decline. Households are willing to raise consumption if monetary policy is active, i.e. ensures that the real interest rate rises with inflation. Otherwise, private consumption can also be crowded-out, as in the conventional case where government expenditures are not productive. The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is thus decisive for the short-run macroeconomic effects of government expenditure shocks.

Hysteresis and the nairu in the euro area

Abstract: This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

International relocation of production: where do firms go?

Abstract: The flexible relocation of capacity across countries by multinational enterprises has become an important source of concern. Using a unique sample of relocating firms in Belgium, we find that wages and market potential of host regions are important determinants for the location choice. Considering firm characteristics, we show that large firms have a higher propensity to relocate to remote countries. Public aid only plays a decisive role in the investment decision for relocations to adjacent countries, suggesting a potential harmful role in distorting competition. More proactive policies in line with changing comparative location advantages should be implemented to accommodate relocations.

Why do rates of convergence differ? A meta-regression analysis

Abstract: There have been many tests of the convergence hypothesis yielding many diffrent estimates of b (the speed of convergence). Narative reviews of the convergence literature hint at possible reasons for the study-to-study variation in the value of b, but such reviews are selective and informal. In contrast, meta-regression analysis provides a more formal and objective review of the literature. It is shown that study design and methodology are important determinants of the reported convergence rate, especially in cross-national studies. There is also evidence of general misspecification in the literature.

Frequent news and pure signals: the case of a publicly traded football club

Abstract: We use stock market data for Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA – one of the leading German football clubs – for an application of the news model. Owing to the specific characteristics of the news-generating process, the case of a publicly traded sport club is a very appropriate candidate for testing this model. By applying a traditional as well as a reversed news model, we elaborate whether new information can explain subsequent changes in the stock price of Borussia Dortmund. We find that sport as well as corporate governance-related variables are important drivers of the stock price.

Optimum-welfare and maximum-revenue tariffs under bertrand duopoly

Abstract: This article derives the maximum-revenue tariff and the optimum-welfare tariff under Bertrand duopoly with differentiated products. It is shown that both tariffs are lower under Bertrand duopoly than under Cournot duopoly. Also, the optimum-welfare tariff may exceed the maximum-revenue tariff under both Bertrand duopoly and Cournot duopoly. This result is more likely the lower the costs of the home firm relative to the costs of the foreign firm, and the greater the degree of product substitutability. Also, it is shown that the optimum-welfare tariff is less likely to exceed the maximum-revenue tariff under Bertrand duopoly than under Cournot duopoly.

Monetary–fiscal interactions with a conservative central bank

Abstract: We study macroeconomic stabilization when monetary and fiscal policies interact via their effects on output and inflation and the monetary authority is more conservative than the fiscal. We find that monetary- fiscal interactions result in poor macroeconomic stabilization. With both policies discretionary, the Nash equilibrium is suboptimal with higher output and lower inflation than optimal; the Nash equilibrium may be extreme with output higher and inflation lower than either authority want. Leadership equilibria are not second best. Monetary commitment is completely negated by fiscal discretion and yields the same outcome as discretionary monetary leadership for all realizations of shocks. But fiscal commitment is not similarly negated by monetary discretion. Optimal macroeconomic stabilization requires either commitment of both monetary and fiscal policies, or identical targets for both authorities – output socially optimal and inflation appropriately conservative – or complete separation of tasks.

‘guns or butter?’ revisited: robustness and nonlinearity issues in the defense–growth nexus

Abstract: The relationship between military expenditure and growth is studied taking into account potential nonlinearities and robustness issues in the specification of the econometric models used Using cross-country growth regressions and the widely used Feder–Ram model, the partial correlation between defense spending and economic growth appears robust and significantly negative only for countries with a relatively low military expenditure ratio While the externality effect appears positive in this subgroup of countries, the overall effect turns negative due to the size effect of the military sector

The price level, the quantity theory of money, and the fiscal theory of the price level

Abstract: This paper examines price-level determination from the perspective of portfolio choice. Arbitrages among money balances, bonds, and investment goods determine their relative demands. Returns to real balance holdings and after-tax returns to investment goods determine the relative values of nominal and real assets. Because expectations of government policies ultimately determine the expected returns to both nominal and real assets, the price level depends on interactions among current and expected future monetary and fiscal policies. The quantity theory and the fiscal theory emerge as special cases produced by restricting both the margins and the policies considered.

Optimal monetary policy and asset price misalignments

Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the context of optimal policy rules. The transmission mechanism is represented by a linearized rational expectations model augmented for the effect of asset prices on aggregate demand. Stabilization objectives are represented by a discounted quadratic loss function penalizing inflation and output gap volatility. Asset prices are allowed to deviate from their intrinsic value due to momentum trading. We find that in the presence of wealth effects and inefficient markets, asset price misalignments from their fundamentals should be included in the optimal interest rate reaction function.

The ascent of the European Commission as an actor in the monetary integration process in the 1960s

Abstract: This paper discusses macroeconomic and monetary policy making at the European Commission in the 1960s. The Commission, in its analysis, focused strongly on economic imbalances in the Community, as they could threaten the common market project. In order to strengthen the system of economic governance of the Community, the Commission advocated an improved monetary cooperation, in line with the internal logic of the integration process. This contrasted with the view of the central bankers, who took the international monetary system as the framework for their analysis. This paper shows the ascent of the Commission as an actor in the monetary area, notwithstanding the relatively limited provisions of the European Economic Community Treaty.

A revisit of international stock market linkages: new evidence from rank tests for nonlinear cointegration

Abstract: Based on a theory proposed for the possible link between financial market integration and nonlinear cointegration, this study reinvestigates international stock market linkages by performing both conventional linear cointegration tests and newly developed rank tests for nonlinear cointegration. The stock price indexes of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States are used, with daily data spanning from 29 May 1992 to 10 April 2001. Much more evidence of market integration emerges from nonlinear than linear cointegration analysis, suggesting that comovements among various national stock markets may well take nonlinear forms. Our findings challenge the conclusion of market segmentation reached in some previous studies that only conducted linear cointegration analysis.

Sectoral exchange rate pass‐through: testing the impact of policy reforms in india

Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of India's policy reforms on exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices, using panel data (at one-digit SITC level) for pre- (1980–90) and post-reform (1991–2001) periods. While the pass-through into import prices has declined, the pass-through into export prices (in USD terms) has increased during the 1990s. The results suggest that, relative to rupee depreciation, Indian exporters increased their USD prices around 20% in the 1980s, but decreased them by around 70% in the 1990s. Moreover, the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass-through increased in the 1990s (six), relative to the 1980s (three). These changes may be attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s over an attempt to use depreciations to increase profits in the 1980s.

Bank interest margins and business start‐up collateral: testing for convexity

Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between bank interest rate margins and collateral for loans issued to new ventures. The analysis finds a convex U-shaped relationship. The results indicate that while provision of collateral initially reduces bank exposure to risk (through security, more optimal levels of capital and lower moral hazard among entrepreneurs) that beyond a point, the positive risk-wealth association gives rise to greater risk taking propensity among entrepreneurs and ultimately higher interest rates. This indicates that a lender's pricing policy may even somewhat help to level the competitive playing field between ventures launched by higher and moderately wealthy entrepreneurs.

A model of an opportunistic-partisan political business cycle

Abstract: According to political business cycle theory, separate opportunistic and partisan approaches exist. It is obvious, as seen from theoretical and empirical points of view, that politicians aim for both opportunistic as well as partisan goals. This paper presents a model of a pre-election political business cycle that manifests an indication of competence and a post-election political business cycle that occurs because of the uncertainty of an election's winner monetary policy. In the pre-election period competent governments expand the economy. The post-election cycle depends on whether a leftist or a conservative government is in power in the pre-election period, and if they are re-elected or not.

A regional model of oil and gas exploration in the ukcs

Abstract: Existing exploration–discovery models are generally characterised by equations describing the behaviour of exploration, success rates, and discoveries. The present paper adds two equations describing the behaviour of finding costs and exploration efficiency. The model was disaggregated along regional lines. Applying the model to UK Continental Shelf data over the period 1964–2002 produced results that supported the new approach. Analysis of the model dynamics and simulation forecast reveals similarities, but also important differences in the responsiveness of activity in the regions to policy multipliers, implying that uniform policy instruments will produce unequal responses in areas with different levels of maturity.

Production and consumption of education in a r&d‐based growth model

Abstract: We develop a R&D-based growth model with endogenous accumulation of human capital. We investigate the idea that education is a good entering in the preferences of individuals. We seek to analyse how the decisions of individuals to invest in human capital can be altered by changes in economic policies and how they can be reflected on the level of growth in the long run. We show that policy changes affect growth through their effect on the decision of individuals to invest in human capital. The effects obtained depend whether individuals enjoy to acquire education or if they consider it as a ‘bad’. In the absence of any policy intervention, the level of growth can be excessive or insufficient compared with the optimum.

Heterogeneity in a currency union with social market objectives

Abstract: In this paper, we explore whether heterogeneity among union members could threaten the stability of the European Monetary Union. The types of heterogeneity we consider are (1) asymmetries in the transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, and (2) differences in national preferences for price stability, output growth, and income redistribution. Our results show that the costs of membership can be significant for countries whose transmissions, structure, or preferences deviate from those underlying the common monetary policy. In part, these costs arise because monetary policy imposed by an independent central bank automatically constrains the use of fiscal policy by national governments.

Optimal international asset allocation with time‐varying risk

Abstract: This paper examines the optimal allocation each period of an internationally diversified portfolio from the different points of view of a UK and a US investor. We find that investor location affects optimal asset allocation. The presence of exchange rate risk causes the markets to appear not fully integrated and creates a preference for home assets. Domestic equity is the dominant asset in the optimal portfolio for both investors, but the US investor bears less risk than the UK investor, and holds less foreign equity – 20% compared with 25%. Survey evidence indicates actual shares are 6% and 18%, respectively, making the home-bias puzzle more acute for US than UK investors. There would seem to be more potential gains from increased international diversification for the US than the UK investor.

Competition, parallel imports and cost‐reducing innovation

Abstract: Incorporating parallel imports (PI), we develop a two-country two-firm model which relates to the incentives for cost-reducing innovation. We show that PI may facilitate or inhibit the manufacturers' incentives to innovate. In particular, PI could encourage both firms' innovations. The difference between the manufacturer's profits under successful innovation and failed innovation is either a U-shaped curve or an inverted U-shaped curve in terms of the cost of engaging in PI. As these differences reflect the manufacturers' incentive to innovate, the variations in R&D investment depend on transportation cost, and firms' marginal costs before and after successful innovations.

Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic Stability and Finite Horizons

Abstract: In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely-lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely-lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more volatile investment and real balances. These conflicting responses add up to a very small overall welfare losses associated with distortionary taxation.

Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies in the EMU: Spillovers, Asymmetries and Institutions

Abstract: This paper studies the institutional design of the coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within a monetary union in the framework of linear quadratic differential games. A central role in the analysis plays the partitioned game approach of the endogenous coalition formation literature. The specific policy recommendations in the european economic and monetary union (emu) context depend on the particular characteristics of the shocks and the economic structure. In the case of a common shock, fiscal coordination or full policy coordination is desirable. When anti-symmetric shocks are considered, fiscal coordination improves the performance but full policy coordination does not produce further gains in policymakers' welfare.

Does economic growth exhibit a different impact on job creation and job destruction

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the link between economic growth and unemployment, using microeconometric evidence for the United Kingdom. The results show a significant and negative relation between unemployment and economic growth, using fixed effects panel regression methods. This implies that faster sectoral change, driven by higher rates of innovation and therefore by higher rates of economic growth, would foster structural unemployment. Moreover, we find that economic growth even more strongly influences job creation and job destruction.

An empirical examination of the hangover effect of irreversibility on investment

Abstract: Irreversibility does not only raise the user cost of capital and discourage new investment but also hinders disinvestment because of the hangover effect. This paper derives a theoretical model that separates the impact of conventional convex adjustment costs from the impact of irreversibility, based on which we test the hangover effect of irreversibility by using a panel of Dutch listed firms during 1985–2000. We find that the sample firms cut both the capital stock and the inventory stock facing shocks to sales and cash flow, but they cut the inventory stock by a larger magnitude than they cut the capital stock. Given that fixed investment is more irreversible than inventory investment, the result suggests that the diminished impact of irreversibility provides the firm with more flexibility in responding to uncertainty, which lends support for the hangover effect of irreversibility on investment.

Technological change, inequality and work sharing

Abstract: The effects of technological change on wage inequality are usually studied under the assumption of exogenous supplies of skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, in these studies there is no distinction between the stock (number of workers) and the flow (hours of work) dimension of labour services. In the present paper we construct a model in which hours of work and technological change affect both the (relative) demand and supply of unskilled workers. The labour supply of unskilled workers (numbers of persons) is derived from a model of household labour supply in which households differ regarding the disutility suffered when both household members work. Combining together the (relative) supply and demand parts of the model we are able to study the effects of technological change on wage and income inequality and to provide an explanation of recent trends more consistent with the stylized facts.

Growth, r&d and welfare: the role of public policy

Abstract: This paper analyzes the normative side of an R&D growth model in which market structure and growth are jointly determined in the equilibrium of a one-sector economy under monopolistic competition. We find that a distortion in the allocation of R&D, namely the presence of technological spillovers between firms, generates two market failures: insufficient growth and excessive entry of firms. We show that this result is driven by the interplay between market structure and growth. A simple tax/subsidy scheme to support the efficient solution is proposed.