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Counterfactual reasoning and learning systems: the example of computational advertising

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TLDR
This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system and allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the system performance.
Abstract
This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the system performance. This work is illustrated by experiments on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine.

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Posted Content

Tighter bounds lead to improved classifiers

Nicolas Le Roux
- 29 Jun 2016 - 
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose to update the upper bound of a log-loss during the optimization process, which leads to improved classification rates while transforming the learning into a sequence of minimization problems.
Book ChapterDOI

Analysis of hidden feedback loops in continuous machine learning systems.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the intricacies of specifying and verifying the quality of continuous and lifelong learning artificial intelligence systems as they interact with and influence their environment causing a so-called concept drift.
Posted Content

Causality-aware counterfactual confounding adjustment for feature representations learned by deep models

Elias Chaibub Neto
- 20 Apr 2020 - 
TL;DR: This work describes how a recently proposed counterfactual approach developed to deconfound linear structural causal models can still be used to decon found the feature representations learned by deep neural network (DNN) models and validates the proposed methodology using colored versions of the MNIST dataset.
Book ChapterDOI

Hidden Feedback Loops in Machine Learning Systems: A Simulation Model and Preliminary Results

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore some of the aspects of quality of continuous learning artificial intelligence systems as they interact with and influence their environment, and demonstrate how feedback loops intervene with user behavior on an exemplary housing prices prediction system.
References
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Book

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction

TL;DR: This book provides a clear and simple account of the key ideas and algorithms of reinforcement learning, which ranges from the history of the field's intellectual foundations to the most recent developments and applications.
MonographDOI

Causality: models, reasoning, and inference

TL;DR: The art and science of cause and effect have been studied in the social sciences for a long time as mentioned in this paper, see, e.g., the theory of inferred causation, causal diagrams and the identification of causal effects.
Journal ArticleDOI

Simple Statistical Gradient-Following Algorithms for Connectionist Reinforcement Learning

TL;DR: This article presents a general class of associative reinforcement learning algorithms for connectionist networks containing stochastic units that are shown to make weight adjustments in a direction that lies along the gradient of expected reinforcement in both immediate-reinforcement tasks and certain limited forms of delayed-reInforcement tasks, and they do this without explicitly computing gradient estimates.
Book

Introduction to Reinforcement Learning

TL;DR: In Reinforcement Learning, Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto provide a clear and simple account of the key ideas and algorithms of reinforcement learning.