Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
Jan Hjort,Olli Karjalainen,Juha Aalto,Sebastian Westermann,Vladimir E. Romanovsky,Frederick E. Nelson,Bernd Etzelmüller,Miska Luoto +7 more
TLDR
It is shown that most fundamental Arctic infrastructure and population will be at high hazard risk, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved, and fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050.Abstract:
Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Permafrost is warming at a global scale
Boris K. Biskaborn,Sharon L. Smith,Jeannette Noetzli,Heidrun Matthes,Gonçalo Vieira,Dmitry A. Streletskiy,Philippe Schoeneich,Vladimir E. Romanovsky,Antoni G. Lewkowicz,Andrey Abramov,Michel Allard,Julia Boike,Julia Boike,William L. Cable,Hanne H. Christiansen,Reynald Delaloye,Bernhard Diekmann,Bernhard Diekmann,Dmitry Drozdov,Bernd Etzelmüller,Guido Grosse,Guido Grosse,Mauro Guglielmin,Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen,Ketil Isaksen,Mamoru Ishikawa,Margareta Johansson,Halldor Johannsson,Anseok Joo,Dmitry Kaverin,Alexander Kholodov,Pavel Konstantinov,Tim Kröger,Christophe Lambiel,Jean-Pierre Lanckman,Dongliang Luo,G. V. Malkova,Ian Meiklejohn,Natalia Moskalenko,Marc Oliva,Marcia Phillips,Miguel Ramos,A. Britta K. Sannel,Dmitrii Sergeev,Cathy Seybold,Pavel Skryabin,Alexander N. Vasiliev,Qingbai Wu,Kenji Yoshikawa,Mikhail N. Zheleznyak,Hugues Lantuit,Hugues Lantuit +51 more
TL;DR: Climate change strongly impacts regions in high latitudes and altitudes that store high amounts of carbon in yet frozen ground, and the authors show that the consequence of these changes is global warming of permafrost at depths greater than 10 m in the Northern Hemisphere, in mountains, and in Antarctica.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
Dmitry Yumashev,Chris Hope,Kevin Schaefer,Kathrin Riemann-Campe,Fernando Iglesias-Suarez,Fernando Iglesias-Suarez,Elchin Jafarov,Elchin Jafarov,Eleanor J. Burke,Paul Young,Yasin Elshorbany,Gail Whiteman +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios, and found an important contribution to warming which leads to additional economic losses from climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000–2016 at 1 km2 scale
Jaroslav Obu,Sebastian Westermann,Annett Bartsch,Nikolai M. Berdnikov,Hanne H. Christiansen,Avirmed Dashtseren,Reynald Delaloye,Bo Elberling,Bernd Etzelmüller,Alexander Kholodov,Artem Khomutov,Andreas Kääb,Marina Leibman,Antoni G. Lewkowicz,Santosh Panda,Vladimir E. Romanovsky,Robert G. Way,Robert G. Way,Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen,Tonghua Wu,Jambaljav Yamkhin,Defu Zou +21 more
TL;DR: In this article, an equilibrium state model for the temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP model) for the 2000-2016 period, driven by remotely-sensed land surface temperatures, down-scaled ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data, tundra wetness classes and landcover map from the ESA Landcover Climate Change Initiative (CCI), was employed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure
TL;DR: In this article , the authors explore the extent and costs of observed and predicted infrastructure damage associated with permafrost degradation, and the methods available to mitigate such adverse consequences, including convection embankments, thermosyphons and piling foundations.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; previousgeneration -CMIP5) along with their sensitivity to climate change.
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Permafrost is warming at a global scale
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