Journal ArticleDOI
Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change
Jeremy VanDerWal,Helen T. Murphy,Alex S. Kutt,G. C. Perkins,Brooke L. Bateman,Brooke L. Bateman,Justin Perry,April E. Reside,April E. Reside +8 more
TLDR
This paper analysed 60 years of past climate change on the Australian continent, assessing the velocity of changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as changes in climatic niche space for 464 Australian birds.Abstract:
Species are largely predicted to shift poleward as global temperatures increase, with this fingerprint of climate change being already observed across a range of taxonomic groups and, mostly temperate, geographic locations¹⁻⁵. However, the assumption of uni-directional distribution shifts does not account for complex interactions among temperature, precipitation and species-specific tolerances⁶, all of which shape the direction and magnitude of changes in a species' climatic niche. We analysed 60 years of past climate change on the Australian continent, assessing the velocity of changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as changes in climatic niche space for 464 Australian birds. We show large magnitude and rapid rates of change in Australian climate over the past 60 years resulting in high-velocity and multi-directional, including equatorial, shifts in suitable climatic space for birds (ranging from 0.1 to 7.6 km yr⁻¹, mean 1.27 km yr⁻¹). Overall, if measured only in terms of poleward distribution shifts, the fingerprint of climate change is underestimated by an average of 26% in temperate regions of the continent and by an average of 95% in tropical regions. We suggest that the velocity of movement required by Australian species to track their climatic niche may be much faster than previously thought and that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes will result in multi-directional distribution shifts globally.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global imprint of climate change on marine life
Elvira S. Poloczanska,Christopher J. Brown,Christopher J. Brown,William J. Sydeman,Wolfgang Kiessling,Wolfgang Kiessling,David S. Schoeman,David S. Schoeman,Pippa J. Moore,Pippa J. Moore,Keith Brander,John F. Bruno,Lauren B. Buckley,Michael T. Burrows,Carlos M. Duarte,Carlos M. Duarte,Benjamin S. Halpern,Johnna Holding,Carrie V. Kappel,Mary I. O'Connor,John M. Pandolfi,Camille Parmesan,Camille Parmesan,Franklin B. Schwing,Sarah Ann Thompson,Anthony J. Richardson,Anthony J. Richardson +26 more
TL;DR: This article synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver.
Journal ArticleDOI
How Should Beta-Diversity Inform Biodiversity Conservation?
TL;DR: How beta-diversity is impacted by human activities, including farming, selective logging, urbanization, species invasions, overhunting, and climate change is reviewed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate-related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the state of the art on geographical patterns of species range shifts under contemporary climate change for plants and animals across both terrestrial and marine ecosystems is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity
TL;DR: This review critically assesses the variety of metrics commonly used to describe climate change in biodiversity-impact assessments covering local changes in climate averages and extremes, regional changes in the availability and position of climates, and the velocity of climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
The future of hyperdiverse tropical ecosystems
Jos Barlow,Filipe França,Filipe França,Toby A. Gardner,Christina C. Hicks,Gareth D. Lennox,Erika Berenguer,Erika Berenguer,Leandro Castello,Evan P. Economo,Joice Ferreira,Benoit Guénard,Cecília Gontijo Leal,Victoria J. Isaac,Alexander C. Lees,Catherine L. Parr,Catherine L. Parr,Catherine L. Parr,Shaun K. Wilson,Paul Young,Nicholas A. J. Graham +20 more
TL;DR: The immense biodiversity of tropical ecosystems is threatened by multiple interacting local and global stressors that can only be addressed by the concerted efforts of grassroots organizations, researchers, national governments and the international community.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of the maximum entropy method (Maxent) for modeling species geographic distributions with presence-only data was introduced, which is a general-purpose machine learning method with a simple and precise mathematical formulation.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Gian-Reto Walther,Eric Post,Peter Convey,Annette Menzel,Camille Parmesan,Trevor J. C. Beebee,Jean-Marc Fromentin,Ove Hoegh-Guldberg,Franz Bairlein +8 more
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change
TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation
TL;DR: This paper presents a tuning method that uses presence-only data for parameter tuning, and introduces several concepts that improve the predictive accuracy and running time of Maxent and describes a new logistic output format that gives an estimate of probability of presence.
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