Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
Mohammad M. Sajadi,Parham Habibzadeh,Augustin Vintzileos,Shervin Shokouhi,Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm,Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm,Anthony Amoroso +6 more
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TLDR
Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.Abstract:
BACKGROUND: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal METHODS: We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread FINDINGS: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N' corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3) There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel INTERPRETATION: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containmentread more
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Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review
Paulo Mecenas,Renata Travassos da Rosa Moreira Bastos,Antonio Carlos Rosário Vallinoto,David Normando +3 more
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Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Rachel E. Baker,Wenchang Yang,Gabriel A. Vecchi,C. Jessica E. Metcalf,Bryan T. Grenfell,Bryan T. Grenfell +5 more
TL;DR: A climate-dependent epidemic model is used to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and it is found that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size.
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