Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2018"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that strategy in the face of complex foresight horizons should consist of an on-going set of practices that interpret and construct the relationships that comprise the world in which the firm acts.
Abstract: What is a strategy? The answer to this question ought to depend on the foresight horizon: how far ahead, and how much, the strategist thinks he can forsee. When the very structure of the firm's world is undergoing cascades of rapid change, and interpretations about the identity of agents and artifacts are characterized by ambiguity, we say that the foresight horizon is complex. We argue that strategy in the face of complex foresight horizons should consist of an on-going set of practices that interpret and construct the relationships that comprise the world in which the firm acts. Our discussion focuses on two intertwined kinds of strategic practices. The first is cognitive: a firm "populates its world" by positing who lives there and interpreting what they do. The second structural: the firm fosters generative relationships within and across its boundries---relationships that produce new sources of value that cannot be foreseen in advance. We illustrate the ideas advanced in the paper with a story about the entry of ROLM into the PDX market in 1975.
107 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a process of creative visioning where participatory methods and tools from the field of futures studies were combined in a novel way to create and facilitate a transformative space, with the aim of generating positive narrative visions for southern Africa.
Abstract: The unique challenges posed by the Anthropocene require creative ways of engaging with the future and bringing about transformative change Envisioning positive futures is a first step in creating a shared understanding and commitment that enables radical transformations toward sustainability in a world defined by complexity, diversity, and uncertainty However, to create a transformative space in which truly unknowable futures can be explored, new experimental approaches are needed that go beyond merely extrapolating from the present into archetypal scenarios of the future Here, we present a process of creative visioning where participatory methods and tools from the field of futures studies were combined in a novel way to create and facilitate a transformative space, with the aim of generating positive narrative visions for southern Africa We convened a diverse group of participants in a workshop designed to develop radically different scenarios of good Anthropocenes, based on existing “seeds” of the future in the present These seeds are innovative initiatives, practices, and ideas that are present in the world today, but are not currently widespread or dominant As a result of a carefully facilitated process that encouraged a multiplicity of perspectives, creative immersion, and grappling with deeply held assumptions, four radical visions for southern Africa were produced Although these futures are highly innovative and exploratory, they still link back to current real-world initiatives and contexts The key learning that arose from this experience was the importance of the imagination for transformative thinking, the need to capitalize on diversity to push boundaries, and finally, the importance of creating a space that enables participants to engage with emotions, beliefs, and complexity This method of engagement with the future has the potential to create transformative spaces that inspire and empower people to act toward positive Anthropocene visions despite the complexity of the sustainability challenge
104 citations
TL;DR: This paper reviewed the field of climate foresight research and identified a conceptual lens through which to analyze the political implications of foresight processes, and apply it to the case of two ongoing foresight initiatives.
97 citations
TL;DR: Backcasting as a planning approach is increasingly used in futures studies in fields related to urban sustainability as an alternative to traditional planning approaches and a formal element of future strategic initiatives as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Backcasting as a scholarly and planning approach is increasingly used in futures studies in fields related to urban sustainability as an alternative to traditional planning approaches and a formal element of future strategic initiatives. It is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development within different societal spheres. As a holistic urban development strategy, smart sustainable cities represent a manifestation of sustainable development as a process of change and a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of sustainability. Achieving smart sustainable cities represents an instance of urban sustainability, a concept that refers to a desired state in which a city strives to retain the balance of socio-ecological system through sustainable development as a desired trajectory. This long-term goal requires fostering linkages between scientific and social research, technological innovations, institutional practices, and policy design and planning in relevance to urban sustainability. It also requires a long-term vision, a transdisciplinary approach, and a system-oriented perspective on addressing environmental, economic, and social issues. These requirements are at the core of backcasting as an approach to futures studies. Backcasting is a special kind of scenario methodology to develop future models for smart sustainable city as a planning tool for urban sustainability. Goal-oriented backcasting approaches declare long-range targets that lie quite far in the future. Visionary images of a long-term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the goals of urban sustainability. The backcasting approach is found to be well-suited for long-term urban sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. Also, it is particularly useful when dealing with complex problems and transitions, the current trends are part of the problem, and different directions of development can be allowed given the wide scope and long time horizon considered. A number of recent futures studies using backcasting have underlined the efficacy of this scholarly and planning approach in terms of indicating policy pathway for sustainability transitions and thus supporting policymakers and facilitating and guiding their actions. However, as there are a number of backcasting approaches used in different domains, and the backcasting framework is adaptive and contextual in nature, it is deemed highly relevant and useful to devise a scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. This paper has a fourfold purpose. It aims (1) to provide a comparative account of the most commonly applied approaches in futures studies dealing with technology and sustainability (forecasting and backcasting); (2) to review the existing backcasting methodologies and discuss the relevance of their use in terms of their steps and guiding questions in analyzing strategic smart sustainable city development as an area that is at the intersection of city development, sustainable development, and technology development; (3) to synthesize a backcasting approach based on the outcome of the review and discussion; and (4) to examine backcasting as a scholarly methodology and planning approach by looking at its use in the Gothenburg 2050 Project, as well as to use this case to illustrate the core of the synthesized approach. The synthesized scholarly and planning approach serves to help researchers and scholars in analyzing strategic smart sustainable city development to assist planners, policymakers, and decision-makers in their endeavor to implement smart sustainable cities.
76 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the role of foresight in transforming food systems and conclude that there are three roles that foresight can play in transformative change: preconceptualization of change; offering an avenue for the creation of new actor networks; and creation of concrete strategies with a high chance of implementation.
Abstract: Transformations inherently involve systems change and because of the political nature of change, are subject to contestation. A potentially effective strategy to further transformative change that builds on interdisciplinary, multiactor, and multiscale-practices and values is the use of foresight. Foresight covers a wide range of methods to systematically investigate the future. Foresight exercises offer collaborative spaces and have the potential to conceptualize and even initiate transformative change. But there is no clear understanding of the possibilities and limitations of foresight in this regard. This explorative paper builds on foresight and sociology and interrogates the role of foresight in transformative change, building on four cases. These cases are embedded in different contexts and characterized by different organizational approaches and constellations of actors. Nevertheless, they share the common goal of transformative food systems change. By reflecting on the processes that play a role in foresight workshops, we analyze what created conditions for transformative change in these four empirical cases. We have operationalized these conditions by distinguishing layers in the structuring processes that influence the impact of the foresight process. Based on this analysis, we conclude that there are three roles, ranging from modest to more ambitious, that foresight can play in transformative change: preconceptualization of change; offering an avenue for the creation of new actor networks; and creation of concrete strategies with a high chance of implementation. Furthermore, contributing to future design of foresight processes for transformative change, we offer some crucial points to consider before designing foresight processes. These include the role of leading change makers (including researchers), the risk of co-option by more regime-driven actors, and the ability to attract stakeholders to participate.
72 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a conceptual model of futures consciousness is presented based on an integrated review and analysis of the descriptions of future consciousness and its related concepts in literature as well as in the theoretical underpinnings of futures research.
60 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the Delphi methodology is used to select experts for participation in Delphi studies, a methodological forecasting tool that aims to predict the future utilising rounds of surveys with the same group of experts.
60 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a new corporate foresight framework and management tool based on foresight, which help leaders to manage VUCA, especially under the conditions of hypercompetition and technological disruption.
Abstract: Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of the business landscape. Turbulence can be summarised using the trendy managerial acronym “VUCA”: volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. This paper aims to combine, for the first time, scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA approach. Gartner Hype Cycle is used as a case example of technological turbulence and “vucability”.,First, the authors present the key concepts of technological disruption and radical innovation. Both these concepts are highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Second, the authors discuss the key elements of current technological transformation and summarise it to create a bigger picture. Third, the authors link this discussion to the VUCA approach. Fourth, the authors present the new corporate foresight framework, which is highly relevant for corporations and takes current technological transformation more seriously than previous proposals, which expect more stable business and a technological landscape.,Key issues in modern VUCA management are agility (response to volatility), information and knowledge management (response to uncertainty), restructuring (response to complexity) and experimentation (response to ambiguity). Useful foresight tools are challenging tools, decision-making tools, aligning tools, learning tools and the ability to combine these management tools in the practices of corporate foresight and management systems. The VUCA approach is a key solution concept to technological disruption.,The authors present the new corporate foresight framework and management tool based on foresight, which help leaders to manage VUCA – especially under the conditions of hyper-competition and technological disruption.,Corporate leaders should reinvent the strategic planning framework and adjust it to the VUCA conditions and simply be more strategic. Traps and typical failures of foresight are adopting it too early, giving up too soon, adapting too late and hanging on too long. In particular, technological transformation with disruptive technologies is changing and challenging many basic assumptions of business management and strategic planning. Our comparative analysis with Gartner Hype Cycle (fast technological changes from 2008 to 2016) verifies this important aspect of technological disruption.
57 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the Sustainable Food and Nutrition Visualizer, which is designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enabling an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena.
Abstract: Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project ‘Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security’ (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.
55 citations
TL;DR: In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making as mentioned in this paper, and the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community.
Abstract: In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community...
54 citations
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: Agrimonde-Terra as discussed by the authors proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios.
Abstract: After a first foresight study on "World food security in 2050" (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled "Metropolization", "Regionalization" and "Households" are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled "Healthy" and "Communities" involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The "Healthy" scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the "Metropolization" scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.
Book•
25 Jul 2018
TL;DR: In this article, a book devoted to the intriguing post-war activity called "futurism, futurology, future research, or futures studies" is presented.
Abstract: The book is devoted to the intriguing post-war activity called—with different terms—futurism, futurology, future research, or futures studies. It seeks to understand how futurists and futurologists ...
TL;DR: In this article, a set of qualitative and quantitative factors and indicators of future developments in three key domains for the Russian water sector were developed by using a combination of Foresight methods including scenario analysis, data mining, and various expert methods.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on the findings of a scenarios method designed to interrogate how far these "climate engineering" ideas may develop in the future and under what governance arrangements, and suggest that the governance challenges for climate engineering should therefore be thought of as less of a slippery slope than anuphill struggle.
TL;DR: It is found that foresight can support open innovation by providing analysis that looks at key open innovation questions such as those around technology selection, identifying future customer needs and scanning for disruptions.
Abstract: The article identifies how the combination of concepts drawn from foresight and foresight networks can be used to help open innovation. We found that foresight can support open innovation by provid...
Book•
31 Aug 2018TL;DR: This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualizing scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties as mentioned in this paper, which has evolved significantly since ancient times by de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning.
Abstract: This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored how individuals think future energy policy measures would impact their lives (consumer-perspective) by asking them whether and for what reasons in a voting they would say “yes” or “no” to them.
Abstract: The future of energy depends on present decision-making, and present decision-making depends on assumptions about future effects of energy policy. Individuals have two roles in this: In their citizen-role they have to consent to measures and support their implementation, in their consumer-role they have to adopt and implement measures in their behaviour. Our question is, how distinct these roles are with regard to how they inform individuals’ perceptions and concerns related to energy policy options. By applying the “Futures Wheel” method we explored how individuals think future energy policy measures would impact their lives (consumer-perspective). By asking them whether and for what reasons in a voting they would say “yes” or “no” to them we inquired into their assessment of these measures from a citizens' perspective. Our results show that the two roles consumer and citizen trigger different patterns of thinking. Energy policy design and decision-making should consider both. Life quality and justice are important for individuals in both roles. The “Futures Wheel” method helps uncovering assumptions about the future individuals are unaware of and is a suitable method to explore anticipated effects of energy policy options. It might be useful to facilitate societal debate about the future of energy.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures, and identify pathways to these visions.
Abstract: Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined how analysts from a professional service company, which specialises in forward-looking analysis, develop foresight, and how they determine the potential impact of their judgements.
TL;DR: Cultural values that foster or inhibit openness are identified: a corporate culture characterised by a clan culture and adhocracy culture is fostering openness, whereas a market and hierarchy culture inhibits openness for open foresight participation.
Abstract: Foresight at the fuzzy front end of the innovation process has become a widespread managerial practice to increase innovation capacity. Nevertheless, conducting foresight by focusing exclusively on internal know-how and capabilities might inhibit companies from maximising the full potential of this managerial practice. Therefore, opening up companies’ boundaries to look into the long term future jointly with other organisations and to share knowledge on possible future developments, is proposed as a promising approach against these limitations. Before committing to inter-organisational collaborations like collaborative open foresight, it is important to analyse whether the company possesses the necessary prerequisites. Findings from adjacent areas indicate that organisational culture and its influence on a company’s openness to engage in open approaches is an important precondition. So far, no clear evidence of a culture fostering openness for open foresight has yet been presented. Based on two in...
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the literature spanning the Strategic Planning, Foresight and Design disciplines with the emphasis placed on how innovation stakeholders may engage with the future in order to explore the challenges to decision-making they highlight is presented.
Abstract: In this conceptual paper, we review the literature spanning the Strategic Planning, Foresight and Design disciplines with the emphasis placed on how innovation stakeholders may engage with the future in order to explore the challenges to decision-making they highlight. From this review, and a series of facilitators identified by the authors in previous design and futures thinking field research, critical perspectives are presented that illustrate how systematic futures thinking can inform decision-makers concerning the innovation challenges and opportunities emerging over medium and longer-term (5-15 years) time horizons of social and technology environments. Combining Foresight and Design in an approach we call “Foresight by Design”, as part of Strategic Planning processes, can help the emergence of new and more creative possibilities, foster the inclusion and alignment of diverse stakeholders, and provide for ongoing learning through prototyping and experimentation by using design tools and approaches to achieve deeper insight and alignment around current reality, to facilitate a more productive conversation across difference, to aid in specifying a portfolio of desirable futures, and to engage ecosystem partners in active experimentation that generates new knowledge and learning.
TL;DR: This paper seeks to identify certain key threats associated with the proliferation of dangerous technologies, giving voice to those in the literature on different sides of the debate, and what are hopefully useful insights for how changes can be made in the present to help avoid meeting the fates described by certain of these scenarios.
TL;DR: Open government data and text mining methods are suggested to utilize for building open foresight framework that various actors exchange their opinions on societal issues, implying that public discourse and policy agenda are coupled.
TL;DR: This essay draws on Feenberg’s philosophy of “potentiality and actuality” of technology as a foundation to consider how knowledge generated through IS research about the sociotechnical past and present might inform futures-oriented inquiry.
Abstract: Information systems (IS) scholars have suggested IS researchers have a responsibility to consider how information and communication technologies could, in the future, influence sociotechnical practices and outcomes. However, research focused specifically on “the future” has yet to gain a strong foothold within the scholarly IS field. In this essay, we suggest a philosophical foundation and epistemological basis for futures-oriented research to advance such scholarship in the IS field. We first highlight epistemic assumptions about futures-oriented research drawn from the discourse of futures studies. We then draw on Feenberg’s philosophy of “potentiality and actuality” of technology as a foundation to consider how knowledge generated through IS research about the sociotechnical past and present might inform futures-oriented inquiry. We illustrate these arguments with examples from the emerging arena of “big data” research.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the topical debate around the implications of innovative digital technologies for future patterns of competitiveness, employment, equality, the international division of labour and resource efficiency.
Abstract: This discussion paper reviews the topical debate around the implications of innovative digital technologies for future patterns of competitiveness, employment, equality, the international division of labour and resource efficiency. It focusses on digital production technologies applied in the manufacturing sector and adopts a global economic perspective in a 10- to 15-year time horizon. The leading research questions are: How is the digital revolution likely to impact the future of industrialisation? How will it affect the relative positions of developed and developing countries in global competition? What are the implications for industrial policy? The paper frames the digitalisation discourse in the context of the changing nature and sequencing of industrialisation (specifically the debate around premature deindustrialisation), its role in latecomer development, and the increasingly complex and blurred intersection between manufacturing and services – the so-called servicification of manufacturing caused by a growing role of embedded and embodied services as well as new service-based business models. In its policy part, the paper contains a detailed case study of the German “Industrie 4.0” strategy and platform. Following a briefer comparative look at similar approaches in selected countries as well as the coordination and harmonisation efforts at the level of the European Union, the paper derives more general conclusions on the role of industrial policy in steering the digital revolution in a socially desirable direction, preventing damaging consequences and promoting its positive impact. Special attention is given to the renewed significance of technology foresight exercises. Finally, the paper provides an outlook on the implications of the digital revolution for the prospects of latecomer industrialisation and the challenges that developing countries in particular are facing.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that traditional risk management falls short because it predominantly focuses on strategy execution while leaving strategy formulation largely untouched, and that an administrative-heavy risk management process can create strategic inertia and a misleading sense of control.
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: A standardised expert elicitation approach is employed to study emerging risk patterns in descriptions of IoT risk scenarios, finding four common themes that provide suitable analytical tools to contextualise emerging risks and help detecting gaps about security and privacy challenges in the IoT.
Abstract: Rapid technological innovations, including the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT), introduce a range of uncertainties, opportunities, and risks. While it is not possible to accurately foresee IoT's myriad ramifications, futures and foresight methodologies allow for the exploration of plausible futures and their desirability. Drawing on the futures and foresight literature, the current paper employs a standardised expert elicitation approach to study emerging risk patterns in descriptions of IoT risk scenarios. We surveyed 19 IoT experts between January and February 2018 using an online questionnaire. The submitted scenarios provided expert's perception of evolving IoT risk trajectories and were evaluated using thematic analysis, a method used to identify and report patterns within data. Four common themes were extracted: physical safety; crime and exploitation; loss of control; and social norms and structures. These themes provide suitable analytical tools to contextualise emerging risks and help detecting gaps about security and privacy challenges in the IoT.
DOI•
27 Apr 2018
TL;DR: The Thing from the Future (TDF) game as discussed by the authors is an experiential futures card game that allows players to collaborate and compete in describing, telling stories about and sketching or physically prototyping artefacts that could exist in alternative futures.
Abstract: This chapter presents a case study of an experiential futures card game called The Thing from the Future, reflecting on it as a method for popularising and demystifying futures, and explaining the design mechanisms that make it tick. The Thing from the Future is a foresight tool and imagination exercise in the form of a deck of cards. Part scenario generator, part design method, and part party game it invites players to collaborate and compete in describing, telling stories about and sketching or physically prototyping artefacts that could exist in alternative futures. To date it has been played by thousands of people around the world, in settings ranging from the United Nations Development Programme’s annual strategy gathering in New York to Nesta’s Futurefest in London. Gameplay is simple. In a small group, usually three to five people, players co-create a prompt and are each challenged to describe an artefact from the future which meets the parameters.
TL;DR: The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), and concludes that facilitating expert-based and stakeholder-based futures studies processes is the key competence of the FFRC.
Abstract: The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, educati...
TL;DR: Open foresight (OF) as discussed by the authors is a new approach for companies to jointly look into the future, which is a response to the limitations of traditional corporate foresight, and it reduces their uncertainty about the future and helps the companies design and assess development trajectories toward the future.
Abstract: Open foresight (OF)—a new approach for companies to jointly look into the future—is a response to the limitations of traditional corporate foresight. In an OF process, the companies involved share their understanding and interpretation of future developments. This reduces their uncertainty about the future and helps the companies design and assess development trajectories toward the future, including scenarios, action plans, and innovation ideas. First suggested as a new approach around 2006, OF is still surrounded by many questions. One of these questions concerns the organizational settings needed to enhance the success of OF. This paper focuses on three elements. First, organizational culture has been found to be critical for successful corporate foresight, but no clear evidence on the design of a "foresight-friendly" culture has so far been presented. Furthermore, top management involvement and commitment has been widely reported as one of the factors of success in innovation processes. What role top management plays in OF has not yet been researched. Finally, OF is a creative process conducted by a team in which all companies involved are represented. In the innovation literature, ample evidence can be found on the importance of team heterogeneity for creativity, but does the same hold for OF processes? Based on an explorative in-depth case study of an OF process, tentative theory is formulated in the form of four propositions for further research: OF (1) is enhanced by a culture with strong adhocracy and medium weight clan values, (2) requires top management commitment, and (3) is best conducted in a team that is heterogeneous in terms of individual diversity, but (4) homogeneous in terms of management levels involved.