Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2019"

Trends shaping education 2019

Abstract: This book examines major economic, political, social and technological trends affecting education. While the trends are robust, the questions raised in this book are suggestive, and aim to inform strategic thinking and stimulate reflection on the challenges facing education - and on how and whether education can influence these trends. The book covers an array of topics related to globalisation, democracy, security, ageing and modern cultures. The content for this 2019 edition has been updated and also expanded with a wide range of new indicators. Along with the trends and their relationship to education, the book includes a new section on future's thinking inspired by foresight methodologies.

Level of education and knowledge, foresight competency and international entrepreneurship: A study of human capital determinants in the European countries

Abstract: Global economies are involved with enormous activities of internationalization that provide pure and untapped opportunities for entrepreneurs and businesses to place and promote their products.,The authors applied structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis with the partial least squares (PLS), conducting an empirical analysis of data from 28 European countries.,The results reveal that the higher level of education/knowledge in a country enhances the foresight competencies of entrepreneurs and that they both have a positive influence on the effective business creation. The findings of this paper also stress on the positive relationship between the effect of business creation and international intensity in economy level.,The limitation of this study lies in the impossibility of obtaining a larger and more complete data. Consequently, this study uses national-level data from 28 European countries, which makes the sample too small. In addition, although innovation is one of the driving factors in both internationalization and entrepreneurship, because of the limitation, it has not been considered in this study.,The authors assert that countries, specifically European nations studied in this research, can improve their employment rate and value creation (through their products in international markets) by giving a special attention to the entrepreneurial-oriented human capitals.,This research warns policymakers that they can have a serious contribution in promoting (international) entrepreneurship. They should draw a rigorous plan for formal and informal educational systems that effectively develops essential knowledge for launching new businesses and fosters the innovation and entrepreneurship.,This study set out to improve the understanding of the role of level of education/knowledge and foresight competencies, as the elements of human capitals, on international entrepreneurship.

Future thinking: the role of marketing in healthcare

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to discuss how, using a futures studies perspective, marketing is uniquely positioned to address future challenges facing health-care service systems.,The futures studies perspective involves predicting probable, preferable and possible futures. Using digital and face-to-face data collection methods, health-care professionals, academics and patients were asked about their perspectives and expectations of health care’s future. Using grounded theory, responses were analyzed to a point of thematic saturation to expose the immediate probable future and a preferred future of health care.,Patients expressed a desire to participate in health-care delivery, impacting caregivers’ roles. Thus, co-creation of value in this context is contingent on the relationship among stakeholders: patients, patients’ families, caregivers and health-care organizations. Concordance, a type of value co-creation, is an effective way for physicians and patients to ameliorate health outcomes.,Although a more diverse sample would be ideal, insight from health-care professionals, academics and patients across global regions was obtained.,To achieve a preferred future in health care, practitioners should implement a three-pronged approach, which includes health promotion and prevention, appropriate use of technology in health care and concordance.,Using patients, health-care professionals and academics, this research broadens the concept of value co-creation in health care. Additionally, paths (i.e. promotion and prevention, technology use and concordance) to a preferred health-care future are uncovered.

why responsible innovation

Abstract: A call for responsible innovation on the basis of a diagnosis of 6 current deficits of the global innovation system 6 Deficits are: 1Need for governance mechanisms for outcomes of Science, Technology and Innovation 2 Address market failures in order to deliver on socially desirable innovations 3 Align Science Technology and innovation policy with broadly shared public values 4 Shift focus from technological potentials to societally desirable objectives 5 Shift to open scholarship in order to make science better by improved reproduceabilty, efficiency and more responsiveness to societal challenges 6 Implement anticipatory governance mechanisms in the policy making process by using a combination of Foresight, technology assessment and normative (participatory) design

Foresight in Higher Education Institutions: Evidence from Poland

Abstract: The rapid transformation of the socioeconomic, political, and technological context predetermines changes in the expectations for higher education institutions that face numerous profound challenges. In order to survive and develop under changing conditions, universities need to drastically rethink their development strategies. The paper substantiates the effectiveness of using foresight for these purposes, which is confirmed by the experience of the project on the development of scenarios for the Faculty of Engineering Management (FEM) of Bialystok Technical University (Poland) for the period up to 2035. This enquiry has resulted in compiling four alternative visions for FEM. By analyzing them one can gain valuable knowledge on both preferable and less-favored alternatives, which on the one hand suggest which actions may lead to their realization, but on the other,indicate specific actions that may lead to the abandonment of undesirable paths in favor of the most conducive vision.

The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise.,After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed.,Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience.,Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization.,Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

Politics of Designing Visions of the Future

Abstract: Scenarios for policy and the public are increasingly given form by designers. For design, this means ideas about the future – futurity – is at stake, particularly in genres of ‘concept’, ‘critical’ and ‘persuasive’ design. While critical approaches are present in futures studies and political philosophy, design assumptions and preferences are typically not explicit, including gender norms, socio-ecological practices and power structures. Calling for further studies of the politics of design visions, I outline possible approaches and elaborate through the example ‘Switch! Energy Futures’. I reflect upon how competing visions and politics of sustainability become explicit through our process, aesthetics and stakeholders.

Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources

Abstract: Futures research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that uses a variety of methods to explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures. The goal is to develop foresight—insight into how and why the future could be different than today—to improve policy, planning, and decision making. Scores of futures research methods have been developed or adapted from other disciplines, beginning with pioneering work in the US military and RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. But many social scientists and natural resource professionals are unaware of these methods and most have never heard of futures research as a distinct field of study. This paper presents a framework for categorizing futures research methods, reviews selected methods, and provides examples of their application to natural resource and environmental issues.

What Futures Studies Is, and Is Not

Abstract: Futures Studies is generally misunderstood from two perspectives. On the one hand, there are those who believe it is, or pretends to be, a predictive science which, if properly applied, strives to foretell with reasonable accuracy what THE future WILL BE.

Getting Ready for a Post-Work Future

Abstract: Mainstream policy and scientific debates on the future of labor markets are dominated by the “next job title” approach. We propose changing this framework by examining the plausibility of a future vision that eliminates the needs for jobs as such. The article describes major drivers pushing toward a post-work future that are already underway, such as the rise of automation and artificial intelligence, shifts in individual values, and blurring the line between daily life activities. There are also significant obstacles to a post-work future, related to the current central role of work in one’s social life. Even though these obstacles are being addressed it may take decades for this transition to occur. Despite this, in order to overcome related challenges it makes sense to already begin preparing for the transition. In particular, we advocate for a serious policy discussion on the post-work future, the development of programs to manage the transition and promotion the value of purpose and personal futures planning.

Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives

Abstract: This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.

Tools of the trade: practices and politics of researching the future in climate engineering

Abstract: Making sense of the implications of climate engineering approaches (solar radiation management, SRM; and carbon dioxide removal, CDR) at planetary scales occurs via a host of methods that calculate, project, and imagine the future in distinct ways. We take a systemic and synthesizing view of some of the (inter)disciplinary methods by which these futures are derived: climate and integrated assessment modeling, ‘deductive’ modes of social science inquiry, deliberative stakeholder engagement, and foresight-based scenarios. We speak to the epistemologies, objectives, and user communities surrounding these research practices, highlighting that different modes of constructing and interpreting evidence about an unformed future yield different kinds of results and signals for actions to be taken. We show how different methods for exploring ‘futures’ form an evolving history of how the risks of CE have been assessed (or constructed), and conclude by echoing calls for a stronger shared understanding of the practices and politics that underpin future-oriented research.

Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia

Abstract: Whereas national and corporate foresight are established instruments for anticipatory Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional foresight is a rather new phenomenon in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate foresight, regional foresight can be considered to fulfill a bridging role by taking advantage of the corporate foresight done at corporations which is based in the regions and by focusing on the broader national foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition, regional foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate foresight, but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional foresight. Also, it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also, at the regional dimension, it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate foresight. The article introduces and discusses two regional foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely, Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional foresight cases; e.g., the focus was extended beyond the science, government, and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However, the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industry sectors which is also due to the general weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases not only created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader economic and social welfare dimension.