Showing papers on "Market liquidity published in 2020"

Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning

Abstract: We perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premia. We demonstrate large economic gains to investors using machine learning forecasts, in some cases doubling the performance of leading regression-based strategies from the literature. We identify the best performing methods (trees and neural networks) and trace their predictive gains to allowance of nonlinear predictor interactions that are missed by other methods. All methods agree on the same set of dominant predictive signals which includes variations on momentum, liquidity, and volatility. Improved risk premium measurement through machine learning simplifies the investigation into economic mechanisms of asset pricing and highlights the value of machine learning in financial innovation.

The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID

Abstract: Data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdowns in the United States reveals a corporate "dash for cash" induced by COVID-19. In the first phase of extreme precaution and heightened aggregate risk, all firms drew down bank credit lines and raised cash levels. In the second phase following the adoption of stabilization policies, only the highest-rated firms switched to capital markets to raise cash. Consistent with the risk of becoming a fallen angel, the lowest-quality BBB-rated firms behaved more similarly to non-investment grade firms. The observed corporate behavior reveals the significant impact of credit risk on corporate cash holdings.

COVID-19 in Africa: socio-economic impact, policy response and opportunities

Abstract: The COVID-19 or coronavirus pandemic which has affected the global economy has also affected the African economy through spillovers to African countries. Many African countries have taken bold quarantine and lockdown measures to control the spread of COVID-19 although this has come at a cost such as the collapse of health systems and a painful economic crisis or recession. A coordinated and bold response by African authorities is needed. First, public funds should be provided to improve the capacity of health systems in African countries. Second, financial support should be provided to individuals, entrepreneurs and corporations to help them cope with the adverse effect of the coronavirus crisis. Third, employers should be granted incentives to preserve employment during the crisis to avoid mass layoff of workers. Finally, the Central bank in African countries should provide liquidity and credit support as well as asset purchase programs to prevent credit and liquidity crunch in domestic financial markets.

Banking Sector Performance During the COVID-19 Crisis

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of financial sector policy announcements on bank stocks around the world during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, we find that liquidity support, borrower assistance programs and monetary easing moderated the adverse impact from the crisis, but their impact varied considerably across banks and countries. By contrast, countercyclical prudential measures led to negative abnormal returns in bank stocks, suggesting that markets price the downside risks associated with these policies.

Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquidity – An Inquiry into Emerging Economies

Abstract: In this study, we focus on two dimensions of COVID-19 pandemic and their impact on liquidity in emerging equity markets, the real human costs and the government response. Using a sample of 23 emerg...

COVID-19 and SME Failures

Abstract: We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm’s liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, absent government support. Accommodation & Food Services, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks’ assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery.

Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Abstract: In March of 2020, banks faced the largest increase in liquidity demands ever observed. Firms drew funds on a massive scale from pre-existing credit lines and loan commitments in anticipation of cash flow disruptions from the economic shutdown designed to contain the COVID-19 crisis. The increase in liquidity demands was concentrated at the largest banks, who serve the largest firms. Pre-crisis financial condition did not limit banks’ liquidity supply. Coincident inflows of funds to banks from both the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injection programs and from depositors, along with strong pre-shock bank capital, explain why banks were able to accommodate these liquidity demands.

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments

Abstract: The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze house-holds’ spending responses using high-frequency transaction data from a Fintech non-profit, exploring heterogeneity by income levels, recent income declines, and liquidity as well as linked survey responses about economic expectations. Households respond rapidly to the re-ceipt of stimulus payments, with spending increasing by $0.25-$0.40 per dollar of stimulus during the first weeks. Households with lower incomes, greater income drops, and lower lev-els of liquidity display stronger responses highlighting the importance of targeting. Liquidity plays the most important role, with no significant spending response for households with large checking account balances. Households that expect employment losses and benefit cuts dis-play weaker responses to the stimulus. Relative to the effects of previous economic stimulus programs in 2001 and 2008, we see faster effects, smaller increases in durables spending, larger increases in spending on food, and substantial increases in payments like rents, mortgages, and credit cards reflecting a short-term debt overhang. We formally show that these differences can make direct payments less effective in stimulating aggregate consumption.

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Fast Trading, Microwave Connectivity, and Trading Costs

Abstract: Modern markets are characterized by speed differentials, with some traders being fractions of a second faster than others. Theoretical models suggest that such differentials may have both positive and negative effects on liquidity and gains from trade. We examine these effects by studying a series of exogenous weather episodes that temporarily remove the speed advantages of the fastest traders by disrupting their microwave networks. The disruptions are associated with lower adverse selection and lower trading costs. In additional analysis, we show that the long‐term removal of speed differentials results in similar effects and also increases gains from trade.

Glued to the TV: Distracted Noise Traders and Stock Market Liquidity

Abstract: In this paper, we study the impact of noise traders’ limited attention on financial markets. Specifically, we exploit episodes of sensational news (exogenous to the market) that distract noise traders. We find that on “distraction days,” trading activity, liquidity, and volatility decrease, and prices reverse less among stocks owned predominantly by noise traders. These outcomes contrast sharply with those due to the inattention of informed speculators and market makers, and are consistent with noise traders mitigating adverse selection risk. We discuss the evolution of these outcomes over time and the role of technological changes.

How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments

Abstract: Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short‐term position changes are driven mainly by the liquidity demands of noncommercial traders, while long‐term variation is driven primarily by the hedging demands of commercial traders. These two components influence expected futures returns with opposite signs. The gains from providing liquidity by commercials largely offset the premium they pay for obtaining price insurance.

Credit Market Disruptions and Liquidity Spillover Effects in the Supply Chain

Abstract: How do shocks to the banking sector travel through the corporate economy? Using a novel data set of interfirm sales, I show that suppliers exposed to a large and exogenous decline in bank financing...

Corporate Bond Liquidity during the COVID-19 Crisis

Abstract: We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of the unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve. We find that, at the height of the crisis, liquidity conditions deteriorated substantially, as dealers appeared unwilling to absorb corporate debt onto their balance sheets. In particular, we document that the cost of risky-principal trades increased by a factor of five, forcing traders to shift to slower, agency trades. The announcements of the Federal Reserve’s interventions coincided with substantial improvements in trading conditions: dealers began to “lean against the wind” and bid-ask spreads declined. To study the causal impact of the interventions on market liquidity, we exploit eligibility requirements for bonds to be purchased through the Fed’s corporate credit facilities. We find that, immediately after the facilities were announced, trading costs for eligible bonds improved significantly while those for ineligible bonds did not. Later, when the facilities were expanded, liquidity conditions improved for a wide range of bonds. We develop a simple theoretical framework to interpret our findings, and to estimate how the COVID-19 shock and subsequent interventions affected consumer surplus and dealer profits.

The Impact Of COVID-19 Pandemic On The Financial Performance Of Firms On The Indonesia Stock Exchange

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has harmed the national economy and caused a decline in various businesses' financial performance. This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firms' financial performance listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research samples included 214 companies, which were divided proportionally into nine sectors or 49 sub-sectors. Data analysis used was the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The results show an increase in the leverage ratio and short-term activity ratio but a decrease in the public companies' liquidity ratio and profitability ratio during the COVID-19 pandemic. There was no significant difference in the liquidity ratio and leverage ratio. However, the public companies' profitability ratio and short-term activity ratio differed significantly between before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The sector that experienced an increase in liquidity ratio, profitability ratio, and short-term activity ratio but a decrease in the leverage ratio was the consumer goods sector. In contrast, the sectors experiencing a decrease in the liquidity and profitability ratios were property, real estate and building construction, finance, trade, services, and investment sectors.

Resistance of commercial banks to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Poland

Abstract: Research background: The analysis allows to assess the impact of the industry structure of the credit portfolio on the resistance of commercial banks to the crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic It uses two independent methods to measure the impact of the pandemic on industry risk and the methodology allowing to prioritize industries in terms of potential negative effects of the crisis Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to assess the resilience of commercial banks operating in the Polish banking sector to the potential effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic The diagnostic features of 13 commercial banks were selected for its implementation Methods: Two linear ordering methods were used, namely the Hellisig method and the TOPSIS method The following were used as the criteria for parametric assessment of the resilience of commercial banks: capital adequacy, liquidity level, profitability of business activity, share in the portfolio of exposures with recognized impairment and the resilience of the bank's credit portfolio to the risk resulting from the exposure in economic sectors These sectors were classified according to the level of risk associated with the effects of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic Findings & Value added: The study allows to conclude that the largest banks conducting their operations in Poland are the most resistant ones to the consequences of the pandemic At the same time the banks most vulnerable due to the crisis were identified The conclusions can be used, inter alia, in the process of managing the financial system stability risk and contribute to the Findings & Value added: The study allows to conclude that the largest banks conducting their operations in Poland are the most resistant ones to the consequences of the pandemic At the same time the banks most vulnerable due to the crisis were identified The conclusions can be used, inter alia, in the process of managing the financial system stability risk and contribute to the discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the condition of commercial banks in emerging markets

Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession

Abstract: We exploit variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments ("wealth"), and reducing short-term payments with no change in long-term obligations ("liquidity") Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find that principal reductions that increase wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect, while maturity extensions that increase only liquidity have large effects This suggests that liquidity drives default and consumption decisions for borrowers in our sample and that distressed debt restructurings can be redesigned with substantial gains to borrowers, lenders, and taxpayers

The Determinants of Profitability in Listed Enterprises: A Study from Vietnamese Stock Exchange

Abstract: The research aims to investigate the determinants of the financial performance of 1343 Vietnamese companies categorized into six different industries listed on the Vietnamese Stock Exchange over a four-year period from 2014 to 2017 using STATA software. Those determinants include firm size, liquidity, solvency, financial leverage, and financial adequacy while the financial performance is evaluated by three different ratios: return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on sales (ROS). The research results from these companies during the given period indicate that: (1) Firm size has a positive impact on both ROA and ROS, especially ROA but it has the opposite effect on ROE, (2) Adequacy ratio impacts positively on ROA and ROS but negatively on ROE, (3) Financial leverage considerably negative influences on ROE and ROS but positively impacts on ROA, (4) Liquidity has a positive effect on both ROA and ROE but a negative one on ROS and (5) Solvency has a positive impact on ROA and ROS but the negative impact on ROE. Furthermore, agriculture accounted for the highest percentage of profitability at the beginning, which was replaced by service for ROA but manufacture for ROE from 2016 to 2017 as opposed to the least in transportation.

Critical macro-finance: A theoretical lens

Abstract: This forum contribution outlines four propositions of the critical macro-finance approach: (1) US-led financial globalization has structurally evolved around market-based finance, driven by the production of new asset classes and the Americanization of national financial systems with changing practices for producing liquidity; (2) global finance is a set of interconnected, hierarchical balance sheets, increasingly subject to time-critical liquidity; (3) credit creation in market-based finance involves new forms of money (systemic liabilities); and (4) market-based finance structurally requires a derisking state, for both systemic liabilities and for new asset classes. The precise contours of the derisking state are determined through political struggles.

COVID-19 in Africa: socioeconomic impact, policy response and opportunities

Abstract: The COVID-19 or coronavirus pandemic which has affected the global economy has also affected the African economy through spillovers to African countries. Many African countries have taken bold quarantine and lockdown measures to control the spread of COVID-19 although this has come at a cost such as the collapse of health systems and a painful economic crisis or recession. A coordinated and bold response by African authorities is needed. First, public funds should be provided to improve the capacity of health systems in African countries. Second, financial support should be provided to individuals, entrepreneurs and corporations to help them cope with the adverse effect of the coronavirus crisis. Third, employers should be granted incentives to preserve employment during the crisis to avoid mass layoff of workers. Finally, the Central bank in African countries should provide liquidity and credit support as well as asset purchase programs to prevent credit and liquidity crunch in domestic financial markets.

Institutional Investor Attention and Firm Disclosure

Abstract: We study how short-term changes in institutional owner attention affect managers' disclosure choices. Holding institutional ownership constant and controlling for industry-quarter effects, we find ...