Showing papers on "Precautionary savings published in 2010"

Disaster Risk and Business Cycles

Abstract: Most macroeconomic models fail to replicate the level, volatility, and countercyclicality of risk premia which has been documented in empirical research. In this paper, I introduce a tractable business cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of economic disaster. Both asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates respond to this time-varying risk. The model is consistent with the second moments of quantities, of asset returns, and matches well the relations between quantities and asset prices. An increase in the risk of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, with no current or future change in productivity. Demand for precautionary savings increases, leading yields on safe assets to fall, while spreads on risky securities increase. To assess the empirical validity of the model, I infer the probability of disaster from observed asset prices and feed it into the model. The variation over time in this probability appears to account for a fraction of business cycle dynamics, especially sharp downturns in investment and output such as the last quarter of 2008. This is consistent with the then-widespread fear of a repeat of the Great Depression. More broadly, the model suggests that variation in risk premia has an important effect on investment and output.

Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising

Abstract: From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 8 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual absence of consumption smoothing over the life cycle. The age profile of savings has an unusual U-shaped pattern, with saving rates being the highest among the youngest and oldest households. We find that financial underdevelopment, as reflected in constraints on borrowing and low returns on financial assets, partially accounts for this pattern. Moreover, overall saving rates have increased across all demographic groups. We argue that this can be explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care.

Labor-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations

Abstract: We analyze a Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari incomplete-markets model with labor-market frictions. Consumers are subject to idiosyncratic employment shocks against which they cannot insure directly. The labor market has a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides structure: firms enter by posting vacancies and match with workers bilaterally, with match probabilities given by an aggregate matching function. Wages are determined through Nash bargaining. We also consider aggregate productivity shocks, and a complete set of contingent claims conditional on this risk. We use the model to evaluate a tax-financed unemployment insurance scheme. Higher insurance is beneficial for consumption smoothing, but because it raises workers’ outside option value, it discourages firm entry. We find that the latter effect is more potent for welfare outcomes; we tabulate the effects quantitatively for different kinds of consumers. We also demonstrate that productivity changes in the model - in steady state as well as stochastic ones - generate rather limited unemployment effects, unless workers are close to indifferent between working and not working; thus, recent findings are corroborated in our more general setting.

The Response of Household Wealth to the Risk of Losing the Job: Evidence from Differences in Firing Costs

Abstract: Economic theory predicts that individuals exposed to the risk of losing their job postpone their consumption and accumulate more assets to build a buffer stock of saving. We provide a new test of the hypothesis using substantial variation in severance payments across contracts in the Spanish labor market. Using the 2002 and 2005 waves of a new survey of wealth and consumption we estimate the link between the probability that several household members lose their job and the wealth and consumption of that household. We instrument the type of contract using regional variation in the amount, timing and target groups of subsidies given to fi rms to hire workers using high severance payment ones. We find that workers covered by fixed-term contracts accumulate more financial wealth. An increase in the probability of losing the job of 8 percentage points increases average financial wealth by 4 months of income. We provide simulations from a simple buffer stock and a permanent income models that suggest that our results are more likely to be generated by the former.

Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement: The impact of uncertain health expenses

Abstract: This paper derives optimal equity-bond-annuity portfolios for retired households who face stochastic capital market returns, differential exposures to mortality risk and uncertain uninsured health expenses, and differential Social Security and defined benefit pension coverage. The results show that the health spending risk drives household portfolios to shift from risky equities to safer assets and enhances the demand for annuities due to their increasing-with-age superiority over bonds in hedging against life-contingent health spending and longevity risks. Households with higher income have a greater incremental demand for life annuities. The annuities in turn provide greater leverage for equity investment in the remaining asset portfolios.

The Importance of Business Owners in Assessing the Size of Precautionary Savings

Abstract: Not properly accounting for differences between business owners and nonbusiness owners in studies of household wealth can lead to erroneous conclusions about the significance of different saving motives. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from the 1980s and 1990s, we show that within samples of both business owners and non–business owners, the amount of precautionary savings with respect to labor income risk is modest and accounts for less than 10% of total household wealth. Previous large estimates of the size of precautionary balances resulted from pooling these two groups together. Such pooling is inappropriate given that business owners face higher labor risk and accumulate more wealth than non–business owners for reasons unrelated to precautionary motives.

The Consumption Response to Seasonal Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pension Benefits

Abstract: Japanese public pension benefits, which were distributed quarterly through February 1990 and every other month since then, induce substantial but predictable income fluctuations. The relative magnitude of the payments combined with the delay between payments yields a stronger test of the Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis than in prior studies. Applying two identification strategies to monthly household panel data, we find that consumption significantly responds to quarterly benefit receipt. Additional analysis suggests that our findings cannot be explained by either liquidity constraints or precautionary savings motives.

Saving and habit formation: evidence from Dutch panel data

Abstract: This paper focuses on the role of habit formation in individual preferences. In this study, the model of Alessie and Lusardi (Econ Lett 55:103–108, 1997) and its extension by Guariglia and Rossi (Oxf Econ Pap 54:1–19, 2002) are considered. Our empirical specifications are based on their closed-form solutions, where current saving is expressed as a function of lagged saving and other regressors. In our study, we use a longitudinal data set from the Netherlands that allows us to disentangle the role of habit formation from unobserved heterogeneity. Contrary to most other studies using survey data, we find evidence in favor of habit formation. However, the magnitude of the habit formation coefficient is rather small. Income uncertainty seems to affect saving behavior of Dutch households.

Are household surveys like tax forms: evidence from income underreporting of the self-employed

Abstract: There is a large literature showing that the self employed underreport their income to tax authorities In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the self employed systematically underreport their income to US household surveys To do so, we use the Engel curve describing the relationship between income and expenditures of wage and salary workers to infer the actual income, and thus the reporting gap, of the self employed based on their reported expenditures We find that the self employed underreport their income by about 30 percent This result is remarkably robust across data sources and alternative model specifications Aside from transportation expenditures, we find little evidence that the self employed misreport their expenditures to household surveys We show that failing to account for such income underreporting leads to biased conclusions when comparing the earnings and saving behavior between the self employed and other workers as well as biased estimates of the importance of precautionary savings, the shape of lifecycle earnings profiles, and the magnitude of earnings differences across MSAs Finally, our results show that it is naive for researchers to take it for granted that individuals will provide unbiased information to household surveys when they are simultaneously providing distorted information to other administrative sources

Comparative Risk Aversion: A Formal Approach with Applications to Savings Behaviors

Abstract: We consider a formal approach to comparative risk aversion and applies it to intertemporal choice models. This allows us to ask whether standard classes of utility functions, such as those inspired by Kihlstrom and Mirman (1974), Selden (1978), Epstein and Zin (1989) and Quiggin (1982) are well-ordered in terms of risk aversion. Moreover, opting for this model-free approach allows us to establish new general results on the impact of risk aversion on savings behaviors. In particular, we show that risk aversion enhances precautionary savings, clarifying the link that exists between the notions of prudence and risk aversion.

Determinants of Adequate Emergency Funds Including the Effects of Seeking Professional Advice and Industry Affiliation

Abstract: This research examined the effects of seeking professional financial advice and being employed in different industries on a household’s likelihood of holding adequate emergency funds to cover six or more months without income. The theory of precautionary savings provided a conceptual framework for the study. Three measures of emergency funds were analyzed: Subjective funds, Quick funds, and Comprehensive funds. The sample consisted of working household heads in the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances. Seeking professional financial advice significantly increased the likelihood of holding adequate Comprehensive funds. Only household heads employed in financial, insurance, real estate, repair, and advertising industries were more likely to have adequate levels of Subjective and Comprehensive funds. Household heads employed in manufacturing, construction, and retail industries, which are more likely to be affected by a recession, did not have increased likelihood of holding adequate emergency funds. Financial educators and advisors need to stress the importance of adequate emergency savings.

Matching and Saving in Continuous Time: Theory

Abstract: We analyse optimal saving of risk-averse households when labour income stochastically jumps between two states. The generalized Keynes-Ramsey rule includes a precautionary savings term. A phase diagram analysis illustrates consumption and wealth dynamics within and between states. There is an endogenous lower and upper limit for wealth. We derive the Fokker-Planck equations for the densities of individual wealth and employment status. These equations also characterize the aggregate distribution of wealth and allow us to describe general equilibrium. An optimal consumption path exists and distributions converge to a unique limiting distribution.

Managing Credit Booms and Busts: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach

Abstract: We study a dynamic model in which the interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices magnifies credit booms and busts. We find that borrowers do not internalize these feedback effects and therefore suffer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We show that a Pigouvian tax on borrowing may induce borrowers to internalize these externalities and increase welfare. We calibrate the model by reference to (i) the US small and medium-sized enterprise sector and (ii) the household sector, and find the optimal tax to be countercyclical in both cases, dropping to zero in busts and rising to approximately half a percentage point of the amount of debt outstanding during booms.

Education Financing of Rural Households in China

Abstract: The purpose of this paper was to examine children’s education financing alternatives among households in rural China. Data on education financing was from a household survey conducted in three poverty villages in Guizhou, China. The difference in financing education by households was verified through non-parametric testing. Findings show that private savings is dominant in financing education of children in school. Formal loans are almost absent even in the highest wealth group examined. The findings implied that the extension of financial services to children’s education could motivate parents to send their children for more education, increase disposable income of rural households by reducing precautionary savings, and provide better-educated labors in rural China.

Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia

Abstract: Using precautionary savings models we compute levels of optimal reserves for Bolivia. Because of Bolivia's reliance on commodity exports and little integration with capital markets, we focus on current account shocks as the key balance of payments risk. These models generate an optimal level of net foreign assets ranging from 29 to 37 percent of GDP. For comparison purposes, we contrasted these results with standard rule of thumb measures of reserve adequacy, which in the case of Bolivia resulted in substantially lower levels of adequate reserves. These differing results emphasize the need to appropriately account for country-specific risks in order to derive adequate measures of reserve buffers.

Household Savings Decision and Income Uncertainty

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as transitory income uncertainty on households' consumption-savings decision. Applying a structural demand model to German survey data, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity for savings, in line with the literature, to around zero. Accordingly, any policy-induced variation of net returns to savings is expected to have no significant effects on the level of savings. Moreover, we find significant effects of precautionary savings on the consumption-savings decision. As a result of a doubling of transitory income uncertainty, an average household increases savings by 4:4%. These effects vary by household composition and social status.

Uncertainty, the Demand for Health Care, and Precautionary Savings

Abstract: We analyze the demand for medical care and precautionary saving in a framework with uncertainty surrounding the incidence of illness and the effectiveness of medical treatments and a representation of preferences that disentangles ordinal preferences, risk preferences, and intertemporal smoothing preferences. We consider a ‘pure consumption’ model with exogenous health capital and a model where young consumers invest in preventive care to increase their future health stock. In both cases we establish conditions for the different sources for uncertainty to induce precautionary saving and we evaluate how uncertainty affects the demand of curative and preventive care. We also show that, given the self-insurance function of preventive care, consumer’s welfare may increase with the degree of uncertainty surrounding health care effectiveness.

Comparative Risk Aversion: A Formal Approach with Applications to Saving Behaviors

Abstract: We consider a formal approach to comparative risk aversion and applies it to intertemporal choice models. This allows us to ask whether standard classes of utility functions, such as those inspired by Kihlstrom and Mirman [15], Selden [26], Epstein and Zin [9] and Quiggin [24] are well-ordered in terms of risk aversion. Moreover, opting for this model-free approach allows us to establish new general results on the impact of risk aversion on savings behaviors. In particular, we show that risk aversion enhances precautionary savings, clarifying the link that exists between the notions of prudence and risk aversion.

Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies

Abstract: This paper investigates the link between terms of trade volatility and long-term output growth in developing countries. I find that differences in terms of trade volatility account for 25% of the cross-country variation in growth from 1980 to 2007. The magnitude is arresting: a two-standard-deviation difference in terms of trade volatility between two countries is associated in the data with a 32-percentage-point difference in overall output growth. A decomposition of output growth distinguishes the dynamic effects of productivity growth from pure factor accumulation. The data show that precautionary savings in the 1970’s and 80’s took the form of high domestic investment, which was replaced in the 2000’s by investment in foreign assets. The reallocation of precautionary savings from domestic to foreign assets led to falling output in countries with volatile terms of trade. A neoclassical capital accumulation model has significant precautionary savings associated with terms of trade risk. Opening foreign bond markets in the model induces a shift away from capital and a fall in output in price-volatile countries, reproducing my finding from the data.

Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints

Abstract: We show that the long-run neutrality of inflation on capital accumulation obtained in complete market models no longer holds when households face binding credit constraints. Borrowing-constrained households are not able to rebalance their financial portfolio when inflation varies, and thus adjust their money holdings differently compared to unconstrained households. This heterogeneity leads to a new precautionary savings motive, which implies that inflation increases capital accumulation. We quantify the importance of this new channel in an incomplete market model where the traditional redistributive effects of inflation are also introduced. We show that this model provides a quantitative rationale for the observed hump-shaped relationship between inflation and capital accumulation.

Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Abstract: An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds statistically significant and robust evidence supporting it. A counterfactual experiment suggests that a decline in uncertainty to the lowest level measured in the sample generates an average reduction in bank capital ratios of slightly over 1 percentage point. However, I also find suggestive evidence that the intensity of this precautionary motive is stronger during recessions. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that the effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements during bad times will be undermined by banks desire to hold more capital in response to increased uncertainty.

Precautionary Reserves : An Application to Bolivia

Abstract: Using precautionary savings models we compute levels of optimal reserves for Bolivia. Because of Bolivia's reliance on commodity exports and little integration with capital markets, we focus on current account shocks as the key balance of payments risk. These models generate an optimal level of net foreign assets ranging from 29 to 37 percent of GDP. For comparison purposes, we contrasted these results with standard rule of thumb measures of reserve adequacy, which in the case of Bolivia resulted in substantially lower levels of adequate reserves. These differing results emphasize the need to appropriately account for country-specific risks in order to derive adequate measures of reserve buffers.

From Pawn Shops to Banks: The Impact of Banco Azteca on Households' Credit and Saving Decisions

Abstract: This research examines the effects of relaxing credit constraints on households' saving and credit choices. I focus in the opening of a new bank in Mexico that targeted workers of the informal sector that were previously denied access to bank credit. I first explore the difference-in-difference effects of the appearance of this bank. Important changes are found in households from municipalities with branches of this new bank, whose members are employed in the informal sector. First, they are three times more likely to use bank credit. They are also 46% less prone to obtain pawn-shop credit. I also find some evidence that they are 15% less likely to keep precautionary savings, and they increase their percapita consumption by 46% when faced with a bad income shock. I then develop and estimate a dynamic structural model that I use to evaluate the effects of setting a ceiling on the interest rate this new bank charges, which is a very popular regulation suggested by several policy makers in Mexico. The model predicts that capping the interest rate would make the bank close its branches in some municipalities that now have a branch, resulting in a general loss of households' welfare.

The response of household wealth to the risk of losing the job: evidence from differences in firing costs

Abstract: Economic theory predicts that individuals exposed to the risk of losing their job postpone their consumption and accumulate more assets to build a buffer stock of saving. We provide a new test of the hypothesis using substantial variation in severance payments across contracts in the Spanish labor market. Using the 2002 and 2005 waves of a new survey of wealth and consumption we estimate the link between the probability that several household members lose their job and the wealth and consumption of that household. We instrument the type of contract using regional variation in the amount, timing and target groups of subsidies given to fi rms to hire workers using high severance payment ones. We find that workers covered by fixed-term contracts accumulate more financial wealth. An increase in the probability of losing the job of 8 percentage points increases average financial wealth by 4 months of income. We provide simulations from a simple buffer stock and a permanent income models that suggest that our results are more likely to be generated by the former.

Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Stability

Abstract: Central banks’ international reserves have increased significantly in the recent past. While this accumulation has been widely perceived as precautionary savings to prevent financial crises, rising reserves might also endanger monetary and financial stability. This paper sheds new light on the implications for financial stability and assesses the consequences for monetary policy on theoretical and empirical grounds. Our estimation results show that the accumulation of reserves raises the inflation rate, both on the global and the individual-country level.