Showing papers on "Price level published in 2013"

Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy

Abstract: We investigate how the dynamic eects of oil supply shocks on the US economy have changed over time. We …rst document a remarkable structural change in the oil market itself, i.e. a considerably steeper, hence, less elastic oil demand curve since the mid-eighties. Accordingly, a typical oil supply shock is currently characterized by a much smaller impact on world oil production and a greater eect on the real price of crude oil, but has a similar impact on US output and in‡ation as in the 1970s. Second, we …nd a smaller role for oil supply shocks in accounting for real oil price variability over time, implying that current oil price ‡uctuations are more demand driven. Finally, while unfavorable oil supply disturbances explain little of the "Great In‡ation", they seem to have contributed to the 1974/75, early 1980s and 1990s recessions but also dampened the economic boom at the end of the millennium.

Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in the Art Market

Abstract: This paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of art. We apply a hedonic regression analysis to a new data set of more than one million auction transactions of paintings and works on paper. Based on the resulting price index, we conclude that art has appreciated in value by a moderate 3.97% per year, in real U.S. dollar terms, between 1957 and 2007. This is a performance similar to that of corporate bonds---at much higher risk. A repeat-sales regression on a subset of the data demonstrates the robustness of our index. Next, quantile regressions document larger average price appreciations and higher volatilities in more expensive price brackets. We also find variation in historical returns across mediums and movements. Finally, we show that measures of high-income consumer confidence and art market sentiment predict art price trends. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

The Limits of Price Discrimination

Abstract: We analyze the welfare consequences of a monopolist having additional information about consumers' tastes, beyond the prior distribution; the additional information can be used to charge different prices to different segments of the market, i.e., carry out "third degree price discrimination." We show that the segmentation and pricing induced by the additional information can achieve every combination of consumer and producer surplus such that: (i) consumer surplus is non-negative, (ii) producer surplus is at least as high as profits under the uniform monopoly price, and (iii) total surplus does not exceed the efficient gains from trade. As well as characterizing the welfare impact of price discrimination, we examine the limits of how prices and quantities can change under price discrimination. We also examine the limits of price discrimination in richer environments with quantity discrimination and limited ability to segment the market.

The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

Abstract: How does commodity price volatility affect the welfare of rural households in developing countries, for whom hedging and consumption smoothing are often difficult? And when governments choose to intervene in order to stabilize commodity prices, as they often do, who gains the most? This paper develops an analytical framework and an empirical strategy to answer those questions, along with illustrative empirical results based on panel data from rural Ethiopian households. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the welfare gains from eliminating price volatility are increasing in household income, making food price stabilization a distributionally regressive policy in this context.

Low Prices are Just the Beginning: Price Image in Retail Management:

Abstract: Recent managerial evidence and academic research has suggested that consumer decisions are influenced not only by the prices of individual items but also by a retailer's price image, which reflects a consumer's impression of the overall price level of a retailer. Despite the increasing importance of price image in marketing theory and practice, existing research has not provided a clear picture of how price images are formed and how they influence consumer behavior. This article addresses this discrepancy by offering a comprehensive framework delineating the key drivers of price image formation and their consequences for consumer behavior. Contrary to conventional wisdom that assumes price image is mainly a function of a retailer's average price level, this research identifies several price-related and nonprice factors that contribute to price image formation. The authors further identify conditions in which these factors can overcome the impact of the average level of prices, resulting in a low price ima...

Bias in the Consumer Price Index: What is the Evidence?

Abstract: Recent research has suggested that the upward bias of the US consumer price index may be significant, and correcting the biases would have important long-run effects on the federal budget deficit The author describes the sampling procedures used in constructing the consumer price index, and gives simple examples of formula bias and quality adjustment He then reviews the empirical evidence, attempting to show which biases are reliably estimated and which estimates of bias are based on extrapolation and guesswork The author discusses possibilities for further research leading to potential improvements in the consumer price index

Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Abstract: We review recent evidence on price rigidity from the macroeconomics literature and discuss how this evidence is used to inform macroeconomic modeling. Sluggish price adjustment is a leading explanation for the large effects of demand shocks on output and, in particular, the effects of monetary policy on output. A recent influx of data on individual prices has greatly deepened macroeconomists’ understanding of individual price dynamics. However, the analysis of these new data raises a host of new empirical issues that have not traditionally been confronted by parsimonious macroeconomic models of price setting. Simple statistics such as the frequency of price change may be misleading guides to the flexibility of the aggregate price level in a setting in which temporary sales, product churning, cross-sectional heterogeneity, and large idiosyncratic price movements play an important role. We discuss empirical evidence on these and other important features of micro price adjustment and ask how they affect the ...

Price Competition with Consumer Confusion

Abstract: This paper proposes a model in which identical sellers of a homogenous product compete in both prices and price frames (i.e., ways to present price information). We model price framing by assuming that firms’ frame choices affect the comparability of their price offers: consumers may fail to compare prices due to frame differentiation, and due to frame complexity. In the symmetric equilibrium the firms randomize over both price frames and prices, and make positive profits. This result is consistent with the observed coexistence of price and price frame dispersion in the market. We also show that (i) the nature of equilibrium depends on which source of consumer confusion dominates, and (ii) an increase in the number of firms can increase industry profits and harm consumers.

Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty

Abstract: This paper has two purposes. It first considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis. Those changes -- reductions in import protection or increases in export restraints -- were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the spike in international prices. The authors find that this insulation added substantially to the spike in international prices for rice, wheat, maize, and oilseeds. As a result, although domestic prices rose less than they would have without insulation in some developing countries, in many other countries they rose more than they would have in the absence of such insulation. The paper's second purpose it to estimate the combined impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally. The analysis finds that the actual poverty-reducing impact of insulation is much less than its apparent impact, and that its net effect was to increase global poverty in 2008 by 8 million people, although this increase was not significantly different from zero. Since there are domestic policy instruments, such as conditional cash transfers, that could now provide social protection for the poor far more efficiently and equitably than variations in border restrictions, the authors suggest it is time to seek a multilateral agreement to desist from changing restrictions on trade when international food prices spike.

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices

Abstract: The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average price. Multivariate models for the full panel of hourly prices significantly outperform univariate models of the daily average price, with reductions in Root Mean Squared Error of up to 16%. Substantial care is required in order to achieve these forecast improvements. Rich multivariate models are needed to exploit the relations between different hourly prices, but the risk of overfitting must be mitigated by using dimension reduction techniques, shrinkage and forecast combinations.

Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Abstract: We review recent evidence on price rigidity from the macroeconomics literature, and discuss how this evidence is used to inform macroeconomic modeling. Sluggish price adjustment is a leading explanation for large effects of demand shocks on output and, in particular, the effects of monetary policy on output. A recent influx of data on individual prices has greatly deepened macroeconomists' understanding of individual price dynamics. However, the analysis of these new data raise a host of new empirical issues that have not traditionally been confronted by parsimonious macroeconomic models of price-setting. Simple statistics such as the frequency of price change may be misleading guides to the flexibility of the aggregate price level in a setting where temporary sales, product-churning, cross-sectional heterogeneity, and large idiosyncratic price movements play an important role. We discuss empirical evidence on these and other important features of micro price adjustment and ask how they affect the sluggishness of aggregate price adjustment and the economy's response to demand shocks.

Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania

Abstract: Like several other countries both industrialised and non-industrialised, one of the central objectives of macroeconomic policies in Tanzania is to promote economic growth and to keep inflation at a low level. However, there has been substantial debate on whether inflation promotes or harms economic growth. Motivated by this controversial, this study examined the impact of inflation on economic growth and established the existence of inflation growth relationship. Time-series data for the period 1990 -2011 were used to examine the impact of inflation on economic growth. Correlation coefficient and co-integration technique established the relationship between inflation and GDP and Coefficient of elasticity were applied to measure the degree of responsiveness of change in GDP to changes in general price levels. Results suggest that inflation has a negative impact on economic growth. The study also revealed that there was no co-integration between inflation and economic growth during the period of study. No long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in Tanzania.

Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database Revisited: A New Approach for Estimating ‘Missing’ Prices

Abstract: The Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database (Ex-vessel DB) reported in Sumaila et al. (J Bioecon 9(1):39–51, 2007) was the first comprehensive database that presents average annual ex-vessel prices for all commercially exploited marine fish stocks by nationality of the fishing fleet. It contained over 30,000 reported price items, covering the period from 1950 to the present, and supplemented missing prices with estimates based on prices from a different year, species group or fleet nationality. This paper describes a revised missing price estimation approach, focused on the computation of annual average international prices for each species group, adjusted to domestic prices using the real exchange rate based on national purchasing power parity. Key advantages of the new approach are that it allows a larger number of reported prices to be used in the price estimation, and accounts for relative price level differences that exist between countries. Our new approach should improve the estimates in regions where reported prices are scarce or non-existent by linking domestic prices to the trends in international prices. Our analysis, based on the revised ex-vessel price estimates (in real 2005 USD), shows that the global marine fisheries landings have generated total value of USD 4.2 trillion since 1950, including USD 100 billion in 2005.

An appraisal of behavioral price research (part 1): price as a physical stimulus

Abstract: How do buyers judge prices? How do they know whether a product or service is priced reasonably, is a good deal or is too expensive? Do buyers perceive all price increases and all price promotions? Do price promotions and price increases necessarily change buyer behavior? How do buyers process the plethora of price information they encounter each day? Economists contend that price primarily represents the monetary sacrifice to obtain a product or service. Behavioral price researchers argue that more complex phenomena are involved. Buyers have individual, internal norms against which they judge prices. There are threshold points below which buyers do not perceive price changes. There are also specific ranges of prices buyers find acceptable for a particular product. Despite over four decades of behavioral price research, we know little about the root causes of these buyer responses to price information. This article is the first of several planned essays that will review the historical, theoretical and empirical developments in the field of behavioral price research. In this first review, we examine the core concepts behind buyer responses to price as well as the complex way that people process numbers. The objective of these essays is to bring focus to, clarify conceptual definitions, examine empirical developments and raise future research questions for this field of study.

Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?

Abstract: This article studies US corn price fluctuations in the past two decades. Price volatility is explained by volatility clustering, the influence of energy prices, corn stocks and global economic conditions. A multivariate generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic specification that allows for exogenous variables in the conditional covariance model is estimated both parametrically and semiparametrically. Findings provide evidence of price volatility transmission between ethanol and corn markets. They also suggest that macroeconomic conditions can influence corn price volatility and that stock building is found to significantly reduce corn price fluctuations. , Oxford University Press.

Impact of multiple interacting financial incentives on land use change and the supply of ecosystem services

Abstract: Multiple financial incentives are increasingly common for managing agro-ecosystems. We explored the impact of incentive interactions across multiple ecosystem services through their influence on land use change potential. Taking a spatial approach, we quantified the economic potential for land use change from agriculture to carbon monocultures and environmental plantings. We assessed 1875 scenarios—exhaustive combinations of five incentive price levels for four services (food and fiber, fresh water, carbon sequestration and habitat), and three cost settings. Incentive interactions had complex effects—characterized by synergies and tensions, non-linearity, dependencies, and thresholds. Tensions occurred between commodity price and carbon price in supplying food and fiber, carbon sequestration, fresh water, and indirectly, habitat services. Water price displayed synergies with commodity price, and tensions with carbon price in supplying fresh water services. For the supply of habitat services, a biodiversity price depended on either high carbon prices or low commodity prices. Interaction effects may reduce policy efficiency wherever multiple incentives encourage the supply of services from agro-ecosystems.

A Price Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration

Abstract: This article presents a perfectly competitive model of firm boundary decisions and study their interplay with product demand, technology, and welfare. Integration is privately costly but is effective at coordinating production decisions; nonintegration is less costly but coordinates relatively poorly. Output price influences the choice of ownership structure: integration increases with the price level. At the same time, ownership affects output, because integration is more productive than nonintegration. For a generic set of demand functions, equilibrium delivers heterogeneity of ownership and performance among ex ante identical enterprises. The price mechanism transmutes demand shifts into industry-wide reorganizations and generates external effects from technological shocks: productivity changes in some firms may induce ownership changes in others. If the enterprise managers have full title to its revenues, market equilibrium ownership structures are second-best efficient. When managers have less than full revenue claims, equilibrium can be inefficient, with too little integration. JEL Codes: D21, D23, D41, L11, L14, L22. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

The timing of 52-week high price and momentum

Abstract: We propose a new momentum strategy based on the timing of a stock’s 52-week high price. We find that the stocks that attained the 52-week high price in the recent past significantly outperform the stocks that attained the 52-week high price in the distant past. In particular, the top 10% of the stocks with the most recent 52-week high price outperform the bottom 10% of the stocks with most distant 52-week high price by 0.70% per month. Further, conditioning on the recency of 52-week high price significantly increases the profitability of momentum strategy based on the nearness of current price to the 52-week high price. Specifically, the average monthly return of this strategy is about twice as large for stocks with recent 52-week high price as compared with stocks with distant 52-week high price.