Showing papers on "Space weather published in 2014"

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

Abstract: Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the sun to 1 au

Abstract: Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front-and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s(-1)). We track the CMEs to 34.9 +/- 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of - 26.4 +/- 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Phi, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 +/- 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 +/- 288 km s(-1) . Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 +/- 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 +/- 50 km s(-1). These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

A Combined Analysis of the Observational Aspects of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation in Solar Magnetic Activity

Abstract: Solar quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) with the time scale of 0.6–4 yrs appear to be a basic feature of the Sun’s activity. Observational aspects of QBOs are reviewed on the basis of recent publications. Solar QBOs are shown to be ubiquitous and very variable. We demonstrate that many features of QBOs are common to different observations. These features include variable periodicity and intermittence with signs of stochastisity, a presence at all levels of the solar atmosphere and even in the convective zone, independent development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, most pronounced amplitudes during the maximum phase of the 11-yr cycle and the transition of QBOs into interplanetary space. Temporal weakening of solar activity around the maximum of the 11-yr cycle (Gnevyshev Gap) can be considered an integral part of QBOs. The exact mechanism by which the solar QBO is produced is poorly understood. We describe some of the most plausible theoretical mechanisms and discuss observational features that support/contradict the theory. QBOs have an important meaning as a benchmark of solar activity, not only for investigation of the solar dynamo but also in terms of space weather.

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

Abstract: The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

Space Weather Observations by GNSS Radio Occultation: From FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC to FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2

Abstract: The joint Taiwan-United States FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) mission, hereafter called COSMIC, is the first satellite constellation dedicated to remotely sense Earth's atmosphere and ionosphere using a technique called Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO). The occultations yield abundant information about neutral atmospheric temperature and moisture as well as space weather estimates of slant total electron content, electron density profiles, and an amplitude scintillation index, S4. With the success of COSMIC, the United States and Taiwan are moving forward with a follow-on RO mission named FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (COSMIC-2), which will ultimately place 12 satellites in orbit with two launches in 2016 and 2019. COSMIC-2 satellites will carry an advanced Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) RO receiver that will track both GPS and Russian Global Navigation Satellite System signals, with capability for eventually tracking other GNSS signals from the Chinese BeiDou and European Galileo system, as well as secondary space weather payloads to measure low-latitude plasma drifts and scintillation at multiple frequencies. COSMIC-2 will provide 4–6 times (10–15X in the low latitudes) the number of atmospheric and ionospheric observations that were tracked with COSMIC and will also improve the quality of the observations. In this article we focus on COSMIC/COSMIC-2 measurements of key ionospheric parameters.

Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

Abstract: One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various kinds of models in this aspect have been developed during the past decades. In this paper, we will present a view of the present status (during Solar Cycle 24 in 2014) of the space weather's objective to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections and their interplanetary shock waves at Earth. This status, by implication, is relevant to their arrival elsewhere in the solar system. Application of this prediction status is clearly appropriate for operational magnetospheric and ionospheric situations including A - > B - > C...solar system missions. We review current empirical models, expansion speed model, drag-based models, physics-based models (and their real-time prediction's statistical experience in Solar Cycle 23), and MHD models. New observations in Solar Cycle 24, including techniques/models, are introduced as they could be incorporated to form new prediction models. The limitations of the present models and the direction of further development are also suggested.

Deflected propagation of a coronal mass ejection from the corona to interplanetary space

Abstract: Among various factors affecting the space weather effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME), its propagation trajectory in the interplanetary space is an important one determining whether and when the CME will hit the Earth. Many direct observations have revealed that a CME may not propagate along a straight trajectory in the corona, but whether or not a CME also experiences a deflected propagation in the interplanetary space is a question, which has never been fully answered. Here by investigating the propagation process of an isolated CME from the corona to interplanetary space during 12-19 September 2008, we present solid evidence that the CME was deflected not only in the corona but also in the interplanetary space. The deflection angle in the interplanetary space is more than 20. toward the west, resulting a significant change in the probability the CME encounters the Earth. A further modeling and simulation-based analysis suggests that the cause of the deflection in the interplanetary space is the interaction between the CME and the solar wind, which is different from that happening in the corona.

Inner heliosphere MHD modeling system applicable to space weather forecasting for the other planets

Abstract: We developed a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar wind model which can be used for practical use in real-time space weather forecasting at Earth's orbit and those of other planets. The MHD simulation covering 3 years (2007–2009) was performed to test the accuracy, and the numerical results show reasonable agreement with in situ measurements of the solar wind at Earth's orbit and with measurements at Venus and Mars by Venus Express and Mars Express, respectively. The comparison also shows that the numerical results can be used to detect stream interfaces, which is useful for space weather forecast of killer electrons in the outer Van Allen belt.

Cross calibration of NOAA GOES solar proton detectors using corrected NASA IMP‐8/GME data

Abstract: Solar proton flux measurements onboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) are of great importance as they cover several solar cycles, increasingly contributing to the development of long-term solar proton models and to operational purposes such as now-casting and forecasting of space weather. A novel approach for the cross calibration of GOES solar proton detectors is developed using as reference energetic solar proton flux measurements of NASA IMP-8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME). The spurious behavior in a part of IMP-8/GME measurements is reduced through the derivation of a nonlinear intercalibration function. The effective energy values of GOES solar proton detectors lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties in spectra and may be used to refine existing scientific results, available models, and data products based on measurements over the last three decades. The methods presented herein are generic and may be used for calibration processes of other data sets as well.

Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

Abstract: There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with “very extreme” constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst∼=−1600 nT.

On extreme geomagnetic storms

Abstract: Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

Synoptic radio observations as proxies for upper atmosphere modelling

Abstract: The specification of the upper atmosphere strongly relies on solar proxies that can properly reproduce the solar energetic input in the UV. Whilst the microwave flux at 10.7 cm (also called F10.7 index) has been routinely used as a solar proxy, we show that the radio flux at other wavelengths provides valuable complementary information that enhances their value for upper atmospheric modelling. We merged daily observations from various observatories into a single homogeneous data set of fluxes at wavelengths of 30, 15, 10.7, 8 and 3.2 cm, spanning from 1957 to today. Using blind source separation (BSS), we show that their rotational modulation contains three contributions, which can be interpreted in terms of thermal bremsstrahlung and gyro-resonance emissions. The latter account for 90% of the rotational variability in the F10.7 index. Most solar proxies, such as the MgII index, are remarkably well reconstructed by simple linear combination of radio fluxes at various wavelengths. The flux at 30 cm stands out as an excellent proxy and is better suited than the F10.7 index for the modelling the thermosphere-ionosphere system, most probably because it receives a stronger contribution from thermal bremsstrahlung. This better performance is illustrated here through comparison between the observed thermospheric density, and reconstructions by the Drag Temperature Model.

Observational characteristics of coronal mass ejections without low-coronal signatures

Abstract: Solar eruptions are usually associated with a variety of phenomena occurring in the low corona before, during, and after the onset of eruption. Though easily visible in coronagraph observations, so-called stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) do not obviously exhibit any of these low-coronal signatures. The presence or absence of distinct low-coronal signatures can be linked to different theoretical models to establish the mechanisms by which the eruption is initiated and driven. In this study, 40 CMEs without low-coronal signatures occurring in 2012 are identified. Their observational and kinematic properties are analyzed and compared to those of regular CMEs. Solar eruptions without clear on-disk or low-coronal signatures can lead to unexpected space weather impacts, since many early warning signs for significant space weather activity are not present in these events. A better understanding of their initiation mechanism(s) will considerably improve the ability to predict such space weather events.

An extreme coronal mass ejection and consequences for the magnetosphere and Earth

Abstract: A “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection could create a magnetic storm with intensity up to the saturation limit (Dst ~ −2500 nT), a value greater than the Carrington storm. Many of the other space weather effects will not be limited by saturation effects, however. The interplanetary shock would arrive at Earth within ~12 h with a magnetosonic Mach number ~45. The shock impingement onto the magnetosphere will create a sudden impulse of ~234 nT, the magnetic pulse duration in the magnetosphere will be ~22 s with a dB/dt of ~30 nT s−1, and the magnetospheric electric field associated with the dB/dt ~1.9 V m−1, creating a new relativistic electron radiation belt. The magnetopause location of 4 RE from the Earth's surface will allow expose of orbiting satellites to extreme levels of flare and ICME shock-accelerated particle radiation. The results of our calculations are compared with current observational records. Comments are made concerning further data analysis and numerical modeling needed for the field of space weather.

Assessing the hazard from geomagnetically induced currents to the entire high-voltage power network in Spain

Abstract: After the good results obtained from an assessment of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in a relatively small subset of the Spanish power transmission network, we now present the first attempt to assess vulnerability across the entire Spanish system. At this stage, we have only included the power grid at the voltage level of 400 kV, which contains 173 substations along with their corresponding single or multiple transformers and almost 300 transmission lines; this type of analysis could be extended to include the 220-kV grid, and even the 110-kV lines, if more detailed information becomes available. The geoelectric field that drives the GICs can be derived with the assumption of plane wave geomagnetic variations and a homogeneous or layered conductivity structure. To assess the maximum expected GICs in each transformer as a consequence of extreme geomagnetic storms, a post-event analysis of data from the Ebre Geomagnetic Observatory (EBR) during the 2003 Halloween storm was performed, although other episodes coincident with very abrupt storm onsets, which have proven to be more hazardous at these mid-latitudes, were analyzed as well. Preferred geomagnetic/geoelectric field directions in which the maximum GICs occur are automatically given from the grid model. In addition, EBR digital geomagnetic data were used to infer statistical occurrence probability values and derive the GIC risk at 100-year or 200-year return period scenarios. Comparisons with GIC measurements at one of the transformers allowed us to evaluate the model uncertainties.

Progress toward forecasting of space weather effects on UHF SATCOM after Operation Anaconda

Abstract: Space weather impacts on communications are often presented as a raison d'etre for studying space weather (e.g., Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, 2013). Here we consider a communications outage during Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan that may have been related to ionospheric disturbances. Early military operations occurred during the peak of solar cycle 23 when ionospheric variability was enhanced. During Operation Anaconda, the Battle of Takur Ghar occurred at the summit of a 3191 m Afghan mountaintop on 4 March 2002 when the ionosphere was disturbed and could have affected UHF Satellite Communications (SATCOM). In this paper, we consider UHF SATCOM outages that occurred during repeated attempts to notify a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) on board an MH-47H Chinook to avoid a “hot” landing zone at the top of Takur Ghar. During a subsequent analysis of Operation Anaconda, these outages were attributed to poor performance of the UHF radios on the helicopters and to blockage by terrain. However, it is also possible that ionospheric anomalies together with multipath effects could have combined to decrease the signal-to-noise ratio of the communication links used by the QRF. A forensics study of Takur Ghar with data from the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics mission showed the presence of ionospheric bubbles (regions of depleted electron density) along the line of sight between the Chinook and the UHF communications satellites in geostationary orbit that could have impacted communications. The events of 4 March 2002 motivated us to develop the Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed model, which can be used to improve warnings of potential UHF outages during future military operations.

Probing the solar interface region

Abstract: ![Figure][1] NASA/GSFC/CI LAB The Sun has been the subject of human curiosity since the dawn of time. It provides the energy that makes Earth habitable and is also the closest star to Earth. The Sun thus acts as a laboratory that provides detailed views of physical processes that occur in other, much more distant, astrophysical objects. Much progress has been made in understanding how nuclear fusion powers the Sun's 15-million-degree core and the mechanisms that transport this energy to the visible surface, where most of the light that reaches Earth is released. However, major unresolved questions linger about how the heliosphere, the Sun's outer atmosphere in which we live, is shaped and powered. We do not understand the counterintuitive rise of temperature from the 6000-K surface to millions of degrees in the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona. Equally puzzling is the solar wind, a high-speed continuous stream of particles that permeates space around Earth. These are not academic problems: Violent explosions such as flares and coronal mass ejections cause bouts of bad space weather that threaten power grids, satellites, and astronauts. These eruptions originate in and travel through this poorly understood solar atmosphere and wind. An important step in our quest to better understand such violent events is then to explore what drives the quiescent state of the solar atmosphere. In June 2013, NASA launched the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), an Earth-orbiting small explorer satellite with a 20-cm telescope onboard. IRIS uses gratings to split the Sun's near- and far-ultraviolet light into its constituent wavelengths, in order to remotely probe the physical conditions in the interface region that consists of the chromosphere and transition region. Recent research suggested that it is here, at the interface between surface and corona, that answers to some of the more vexing unresolved questions in solar physics might be found. In this special section of Science , five Reports exploit the high-resolution images and spectra obtained with IRIS to present major advances toward a comprehensive understanding of how the solar atmosphere is energized ([sciencemag.org/special/iris][2]). Testa et al. find compelling evidence for the presence of high-energy particles generated during coronal nanoflares, small-scale heating events long hypothesized to drive coronal heating through the release of energy when magnetic field lines reconnect. These results provide constraints for models of the poorly understood mechanism that accelerates these electrons to such high energies and that probably acts under many other astrophysical conditions. Hansteen et al. reveal the presence of small-scale magnetic loops in high-resolution images of IRIS and advanced three-dimensional numerical models, resolving a long-standing debate about the nature of the transition region emission. These results vindicate the view that much of this emission does not originate in the “classical” transition region between the surface and the hot loops. Rather, the emission occurs in “unresolved fine structure” that has now been spatially resolved, thereby removing a major impediment to the modeling of coronal loops. Peter et al. exploit the power of high-resolution spectroscopy to reveal a solar atmosphere turned upside down: Hot plasma at 100,000 K is found closer to the solar surface than previously imagined, sandwiched by cool plasma both below and above. The hot plasma is heated by “bombs” in which the reconnection of magnetic fields leads to rapid heating. These unexpected results will likely lead to a reassessment of other phenomena in the low solar atmosphere, such as the mysterious Ellerman bombs discovered almost a century ago. De Pontieu et al. describe a chromosphere that is replete with twisting motions on very small scales that are associated with the heating of plasma to transition region temperatures. They are the signature of propagating Alfven wave pulses and provide support for recently developed models of atmospheric heating and dynamics and insight into the transport of helicity in the solar atmosphere. Tian et al. find evidence of high-speed jets at the root of the solar wind, fountains of plasma that appear to undergo rapid heating from chromospheric to transition region temperatures. These observations provide support for recent suggestions that the solar wind does not necessarily originate only from gentle evaporation in funnels rooted in strong field regions. Together, these results provide critical pieces in the still-unsolved puzzle of fully understanding of how the Sun shapes and affects the heliosphere. With solar activity at high levels, more advances from the imaging spectrograph onboard IRIS can be expected, especially with respect to flares and coronal mass ejections. [1]: pending:yes [2]: http://sciencemag.org/special/iris

Observational Characteristics of CMEs without Low Coronal Signatures

Abstract: Solar eruptions are usually associated with a variety of phenomena occurring in the low corona before, during, and after onset of eruption. Though easily visible in coronagraph observations, so-called stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) do not obviously exhibit any of these low-coronal signatures. The presence or absence of distinct low coronal signatures can be linked to different theoretical models to establish the mechanisms by which the eruption is initiated and driven. In this study, 40 CMEs without low coronal signatures, occurring in 2012, are identified. Their observational and kinematic properties are analyzed and compared to those of regular CMEs. Solar eruptions without clear on-disk or low coronal signatures can lead to unexpected space weather impacts, since many early warning signs for significant space weather activity are not present in these events. A better understanding of their initiation mechanism(s) will considerably improve the ability to predict such space weather events.

Full-halo coronal mass ejections: Arrival at the Earth

Abstract: A geomagnetic storm is mainly caused by a frontside coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting the Earth and then interacting with the magnetosphere. However, not all frontside CMEs can hit the Earth. Thus, which CMEs hit the Earth and when they do so are important issues in the study and forecasting of space weather. In our previous work, the deprojected parameters of the full-halo coronal mass ejections (FHCMEs) that occurred from 1 March 2007 to 31 May 2012 were estimated, and there are 39 frontside events that could be fitted by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model. In this work, we continue to study whether and when these frontside FHCMEs (FFHCMEs) hit the Earth. It is found that 59% of these FFHCMEs hit the Earth, and for central events, whose deviation angles �� , which are the angles between the propagation direction and the Sun-Earth line, are smaller than 45 ◦ , the fraction increases to 75%. After checking the deprojected angular widths of the CMEs, we found that all of the Earth-encountered CMEs satisfy a simple criterion that the angular width (�� ) is larger than twice the deviation angle (�� ). This result suggests that some simple criteria can be used to forecast whether a CME could hit the Earth. Furthermore, for Earth-encountered CMEs, the transit time is found to be roughly anticorrelated with the deprojected velocity, but some events significantly deviate from the linearity. For CMEs with similar velocities, the differences of their transit times can be up to several days. Such deviation is further demonstrated to be mainly caused by the CME geometry and propagation direction, which are essential in the forecasting of CME arrival.

Effects of a strong ICME on the Martian ionosphere as detected by Mars Express and Mars Odyssey

Abstract: We present evidence of a substantial ionospheric response to a strong interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) detected by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express (MEX) spacecraft. A powerful ICME impacted the Martian ionosphere beginning on 5 June 2011, peaking on 6 June, and trailing off over about a week. This event caused a strong response in the charged particle detector of the High-Energy Neutron Detector (HEND) on board the Odyssey spacecraft. The ion mass spectrometer of the Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms instrument on MEX detected an increase in background counts, simultaneous with the increase seen by HEND, due to the flux of solar energetic particles (SEPs) associated with the ICME. Local densities and magnetic field strengths measured by MARSIS and enhancements of 100 eV electrons denote the passing of an intense space weather event. Local density and magnetosheath electron measurements and remote soundings show compression of ionospheric plasma to lower altitudes due to increased solar wind dynamic pressure. MARSIS topside sounding of the ionosphere indicates that it is extended well beyond the terminator, to about 116° solar zenith angle, in a highly disturbed state. This extension may be due to increased ionization due to SEPs and magnetosheath electrons or to plasma transport across the terminator. The surface reflection from both ionospheric sounding and subsurface modes of the MARSIS radar was attenuated, indicating increased electron content in the Mars ionosphere at low altitudes, where the atmosphere is dense.

A nonstorm time enhancement of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt

Abstract: [1] Despite the lack of a geomagnetic storm (based on the Dst index), relativistic electron fluxes were enhanced over 2.5 orders of magnitude in the outer radiation belt in 13 h on 13–14 January 2013. The unusual enhancement was observed by Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS), onboard the Van Allen Probes; Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope Integrated Little Experiment, onboard the Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment; and Solid State Telescope, onboard Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS). Analyses of MagEIS phase space density (PSD) profiles show a positive outward radial gradient from 4 < L < 5.5. However, THEMIS observations show a peak in PSD outside of the Van Allen Probes' apogee, which suggest a very interesting scenario: wave-particle interactions causing a PSD peak at ~ L* = 5.5 from where the electrons are then rapidly transported radially inward. This letter demonstrates, for the first time in detail, that geomagnetic storms are not necessary for causing dramatic enhancements in the outer radiation belt.

Mobile crowd sensing in space weather monitoring: the mahali project

Abstract: Space weather refers to the conditions and evolution of Earth's near space environment including electron density variations in the ionosphere. This environment is influenced by both the Sun and terrestrial processes, and has an impact on communications, navigation, and terrestrial power systems. The recent discovery of clear signatures in the ionosphere related to tsunamis and earthquakes suggests that the ionosphere itself may serve as a valuable and versatile sensor, registering many types of Earth- and space-based phenomena. To realize this potential, ionospheric electron density must be monitored through a dense wide-area sensor mesh that is expensive to realize with traditional deployments and observation techniques. Crowdsourcing can help pursue this novel direction by providing new capabilities, including an increase in the number of sensors as well as expanding data transport capabilities through participating devices that act as relays. This article describes the Mahali project, which is currently at the beginning of exploring these promising techniques. Mahali uses GPS signals that penetrate the ionosphere for science rather than positioning. A large number of ground-based sensors will be able to feed data through mobile devices into a cloud-based processing environment, enabling a tomographic analysis of the global ionosphere at unprecedented resolution and coverage. This novel approach brings the exploitation of the ionosphere as a global earth system sensor technologically and economically within reach.

CME front and severe space weather

Abstract: Thanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME-magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s−1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high-energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP < −250 nT during main phases, and the known electric power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even −400 nT.

Extreme Space Weather Impact: An Emergency Management Perspective

Abstract: In 2010, the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to investigate the potential for extreme space weather conditions to impact National Security/Emergency Preparedness communications—those communications vital to a functioning government and to emergency and disaster response—in the United States. Given the interdependencies of modern critical infrastructure, the initial systematic review of academic research on space weather effects on communications expanded to other critical infrastructure sectors, federal agencies, and private sector organizations. While the effort is ongoing, and despite uncertainties inherent with this hazard, FEMA and the SWPC did draw some conclusions. If electric power remains available, an extreme space weather event will result in the intermittent loss of HF and similar sky wave radio systems, minimal direct impact to public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services, a relatively small loss of satellite services as a percentage of the total satellite fleet, interference or intermittent loss of satellite communications and GPS navigation and timing signals, and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices. Vulnerability of electric power to an extreme geomagnetic storm remains the primary concern from an emergency management perspective, but actual impact is not well understood at present. A discussion of potential impacts to infrastructure from the loss of electric power from any hazard is provided using the 2011 record tornado outbreak in Alabama as an example.

Comparison of magnetic perturbation data from LEO satellite constellations: Statistics of DMSP and AMPERE

Abstract: During the past decade engineering-grade magnetic field measurements from the low Earth orbiting (LEO) Iridium constellation of communication satellites have been available to the geospace science community as a tool to map field-aligned currents. The Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) applied to Iridium measurements markedly improved the temporal and spatial resolution of these data. We developed new methods to compare data from the latest improvement to AMPERE with those from a constellation of four LEO Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft that carry high-resolution magnetometers. To perform the comparisons, we transformed all data to a common coordinate frame and altitude (110 km) and developed a means of computing spacecraft magnetic conjunctions. These conjunctions yield discrepancies in the magnetic field perturbations measured at each proximate spacecraft. During the geomagnetic disturbance of 29–30 May 2010, the vector differences in the horizontal perturbations at closest approach (typically a few tens of kilometers) had mean, median, and standard deviation values of 132 nT, 112 nT, and 90 nT, respectively. The DMSP spacecraft tend to report larger perturbations in the northern polar cap and cusp regions, especially during active intervals. We attribute some of the differences to limitations of spacecraft-attitude knowledge that propagate into AMPERE data. Overall, for the magnetic storm, we provide clear evidence that AMPERE data can provide high-resolution auroral zone data in good agreement with DMSP data for use in data assimilation algorithms. Such dual-use commercial data can provide important global augmentation to the nation's space weather monitoring capabilities.

A space weather index for the radiation field at aviation altitudes

Abstract: The additional dose contribution to the radiation exposure at aviation altitudes during Solar Particle Events (SPEs) has been a matter of concern for many years. After the Halloween storms in 2003 several airlines began to implement mitigation measures such as rerouting and lowering flight altitudes in response to alerts on the NOAA S-scale regarding solar radiation storms. These alerts are based on the integral proton flux above 10 MeV measured aboard the corresponding GOES-satellite which is operated outside the Earth’s atmosphere in a geosynchronous orbit. This integral proton flux has, however, been proved to be an insufficient parameter to apply to the radiation field at aviation altitudes without an accompanying analysis of the shape of the energy spectrum. Consequently, false alarms and corresponding disproportionate reactions ensued. Since mitigating measures can be quite cost-intensive, there has been a demand for appropriate space weather information among responsible airline managers for about a decade. Against this background, we propose the introduction of a new Space Weather index D, based on dose rates at aviation altitudes produced by solar protons during solar radiation storms, as the relevant parameter for the assessment of corresponding radiation exposure. The Space Weather index D is a natural number given by a graduated table of ranges of dose rates in ascending order which is derived by an equation depending on the dose rate of solar protons.

Space weather effects on the low latitude D-region ionosphere during solar minimum

Abstract: The effects of the solar flares and the geomagnetic storms (disturbance storm time (Dst) < −50 nT) during December 2006 to 2008, a period during the unprecedented solar minimum of solar cycles 23 and 24, have been examined on sub-ionospheric very low frequency (VLF) signals from NWC (19.8 kHz), NPM (21.4 kHz), VTX (18.2 kHz), and NLK (24.8 kHz) transmitters monitored at Suva (18.2° S, 178.4° E), Fiji. Apart from the higher class solar flares (C to X), a solar flare of class B8.5 also produced enhancements both on the amplitude and phase. The amplitude enhancements in NLK, NPM, and NWC signals as a function of peak solar flare X-ray flux in decibel (dB; relative to 1 μW/m2) shows that the relationship curve is steeper and quite linear between the flare power levels of 0 to 15 dB; below 0 dB, the curve gets less steep and flattens towards −5 dB flare power level, while it also gets less steep above 15 dB and almost flattens above 20 dB. In general, the level of amplitude enhancement for NLK signal is higher than that for NPM and NWC signals for all solar flares. The enhancement in the amplitude and phase of VLF signals by solar flares is due to the increase in the D-region electron density by the solar flare-produced extra ionization. The modeling of VLF perturbations produced by B8.5 and C1.5 classes of solar flares on 29 January 2007 using LWPC (Long Wave Propagation Capability) V2.1 codes show that reflection height (H') was reduced by 0.6 and 1.2 km and the exponential sharpness factor (β) was raised by 0.010 and 0.005 km−1, respectively. Out of seven storms with Dst < −50 nT, only the intense storm of 14 to 16 December 2006 with a minimum Dst of −145 nT has shown a clear reduction in the signal strength of NWC and NPM sub-ionospheric signals due to storm-induced reduction in the D-region electron density.

A Complete Catalogue of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams during Solar Cycle 23

Abstract: High-speed solar wind streams (HSSWSs) are ejected from the Sun and travel into the interplanetary space. Because of their high speed, they carry out energetic particles such as protons and heavy ions, which leads to an increase in the mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Since the Earth is in the path of those streams, Earth’s magnetosphere interacts with the disturbed magnetic field, leading to a significant radiation-induced degradation of technological systems. These interactions provide an enhanced energy transfer from the solar wind/IMF system into the Earth’s magnetosphere and initiate geomagnetic disturbances that may have a possible impact on human health. Solar cycle 23 was a particularly unusual cycle with many energetic phenomena during its descending phase and also had an extended minimum. We have identified and catalogued the HSSWSs of this cycle and determined their characteristics, such as their maximum velocity, beginning and ending time, duration, and possible sources. We identified 710 HSSWSs and compared them with the corresponding characteristics of the streams of previous solar cycles. For first time, we used the CME data to study the stream sources, which led to useful results for the monitoring and forecasting of space weather effects.