Showing papers on "Surprise published in 2005"

Bayesian Surprise Attracts Human Attention

Abstract: The concept of surprise is central to sensory processing, adaptation, learning, and attention. Yet, no widely-accepted mathematical theory currently exists to quantitatively characterize surprise elicited by a stimulus or event, for observers that range from single neurons to complex natural or engineered systems. We describe a formal Bayesian definition of surprise that is the only consistent formulation under minimal axiomatic assumptions. Surprise quantifies how data affects a natural or artificial observer, by measuring the difference between posterior and prior beliefs of the observer. Using this framework we measure the extent to which humans direct their gaze towards surprising items while watching television and video games. We find that subjects are strongly attracted towards surprising locations, with 72% of all human gaze shifts directed towards locations more surprising than the average, a figure which rises to 84% when considering only gaze targets simultaneously selected by all subjects. The resulting theory of surprise is applicable across different spatio-temporal scales, modalities, and levels of abstraction.

Understanding emotions from standardized facial expressions in autism and normal development

Abstract: The study investigated the recognition of standardized facial expressions of emotion (anger, fear, disgust, happiness, sadness, surprise) at a perceptual level (experiment 1) and at a semantic level (experiments 2 and 3) in children with autism (N = 20) and normally developing children (N = 20). Results revealed that children with autism were as able as controls to recognize all six emotions with different intensity levels, and that they made the same type of errors. These negative findings are discussed in relation to (1) previous data showing specific impairment in autism in recognizing the belief-based expression of surprise, (2) previous data showing specific impairment in autism in recognizing fear, and (3) the convergence of findings that individuals with autism, like patients with amygdala damage, pass a basic emotions recognition test but fail to recognize more complex stimuli involving the perception of faces or part of faces.

Kinship, Law and the Unexpected: Relatives are Always a Surprise

Abstract: How can we hold in the same view both cultural or historical constructs and generalities about social existence? Kinship, Law and the Unexpected takes up an issue at the heart of studies of society - the way we use relationships to uncover relationships. Relationality is a phenomenon at once contingent (on certain ways of knowing) and ubiquitous (to social life). The role of relations in western (Euro-American) knowledge practices, from the scientific revolution onwards, raises a question about the extent to which Euro-American kinship is the kinship of a knowledge-based society. The argument takes the reader through current issues in biotechnology, new family formations and legal interventions, and intellectual property debates, to matters of personhood and ownership afforded by material from Melanesia and elsewhere. If we are often surprised by what our relatives do, we may also be surprised by what relations tells us about the world we live in.

Revisiting "scale-free" networks.

Abstract: Recent observations of power-law distributions in the connectivity of complex networks came as a big surprise to researchers steeped in the tradition of random networks. Even more surprising was the discovery that power-law distributions also characterize many biological and social networks. Many attributed a deep significance to this fact, inferring a "universal architecture" of complex systems. Closer examination, however, challenges the assumptions that (1) such distributions are special and (2) they signify a common architecture, independent of the system's specifics. The real surprise, if any, is that power-law distributions are easy to generate, and by a variety of mechanisms. The architecture that results is not universal, but particular; it is determined by the actual constraints on the system in question.

Promoting Small and Medium Enterprises with a Clustering Approach: A Policy Experience from Indonesia

Abstract: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Indonesia are very important for employment creation and are important sources of economic growth and foreign currencies. It is therefore not a surprise that ...

To What Extent Does the Financial Reporting Process Curb Earnings Surprise Games

Abstract: Managers play earnings surprise games to avoid negative earnings surprises by managing earnings upward or by managing analysts' earnings expectations downward. We investigate the effectiveness of the financial reporting process at restraining earnings surprise games. Because the annual reporting process is subject to an independent audit and more rigorous expense recognition rules than interim reporting, it provides managers with fewer opportunities to manage earnings upward. We document that, relative to interim reporting, annual reporting reduces the likelihood of income-increasing earnings management and, to a lesser extent, of negative surprise avoidance, but increases the magnitude of downward expectations management. Our findings suggest that regulatory attempts to monitor corporations' internal checks and balances are likely to be more effective at curbing upward earnings management than at mitigating negative surprise avoidance.

Theory of mind and mental state discourse during book reading and story-telling tasks

Abstract: This article presents three studies conducted in Canada and Australia that relate theory of mind (ToM) development to mental state discourse. In Study 1, mental state discourse was examined while parents and their 5-7-year-old children jointly read a storybook which had a surprise ending about the identity of the main character. Comments specific to the mental states of the story characters and discourse after the book had ended were positively related to children's ToM, and this was due to parent elaborations. Studies 2 and 3 examined children's mental state discourse during storytelling tasks, and in both, mental state discourse of children during narrative was concurrently related to ToM performance. While research has shown that mental state discourse of parents is related to children's ToM acquisition, the current research indicates that children's spontaneous use of mental state language examined outside of the interactional context is also a strong correlate.

Can children recognize pride

Abstract: Recent research has shown that pride, like the "basic" emotions of anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, and surprise, has a distinct, nonverbal expression that can be recognized by adults (J. L. Tracy & R. W. Robins, 2004b). In 2 experiments, the authors examined whether young children can identify the pride expression and distinguish it from expressions of happiness and surprise. Results suggest that (a) children can recognize pride at above-chance levels by age 4 years; (b) children recognize pride as well as they recognize happiness; (c) pride recognition, like happiness and surprise recognition, improves from age 3 to 7 years; and (d) children's ability to recognize pride cannot be accounted for by the use of a process of elimination (i.e., an exclusion rule) to identify an unknown entity. These findings have implications for the development of emotion recognition and children's ability to perceive and communicate pride.

The Strategic Use of Fear by the Lord's Resistance Army

Abstract: The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has created a pervasive climate of fear in northern Uganda. This study addresses the purpose of this conduct. Diverging from the traditional ‘greed-grievance’ approach to the study of new wars, the LRA's behaviour is analyzed from a strategic perspective. Specifically, the article focuses on the LRA's use of mutilation, abduction, surprise, and unpredictable attacks. The conclusion is that the LRA is strategically using fear as a force multiplier, to further its organizational survival, and as a way to fight a political ‘dirty war’.

Climate Change as a Predictable Surprise

Abstract: In this article, I analyze climate change as a "predictable surprise": an event that leads an organization or nation to react with surprise, despite the fact that the information necessary to anticipate the event and its consequences was available (Bazerman and Watkins, 2004). I then assess the cognitive, organizational, and political reasons why society fails to implement wise strategies to prevent predictable surprises generally and climate change specifically. Finally, I conclude with a call to action and outline a set of response strategies to overcome barriers to change.

Legitimacy and the use of force: can the circle be squared?

Abstract: It is no great surprise that in the contemporary world the use of deadly force by a political grouping or nation-state or on behalf of international society should raise troubling questions of legitimacy. The problem appears to be massively overdetermined and the intellectual challenge is to bring some order to a confused and confusing debate; to distinguish between short-term problems and deep-rooted changes in both understandings of legitimacy and patterns in the use of force; and try and identify where there might be scope for narrowing the very deep disagreements that have come to surround this question.

Empathy Gaps in Emotional Perspective Taking.

Abstract: One of the hallmarks of psychological maturity is a "theory of mind" that allows one to understand that other people, particularly those in different situations, have feelings, preferences, and behavioral inclinations that are different from one's own. Having just gorged on Ritz crackers and Velveeta cheese, one expects that someone who has not eaten in several hours is hungrier than oneself. And even though one may have just received good news that a manuscript was accepted, there is no surprise when someone whose grant was not funded is not elated about one's success. In each of these situations, a theory of mind creates the recognition and anticipation that, because others are in a different affective situation, they feel, think, and behave differently than oneself.

Does the Organization of Emotional Expression Change Over Time? Facial Expressivity From 4 to 12 Months

Abstract: Differentiation models contend that the organization of facial expressivity increases during infancy. Accordingly, infants are believed to exhibit increasingly specific facial expressions in response to stimuli as a function of development. This study tested this hypothesis in a sample of 151 infants (83 boys and 68 girls) observed in 4 situations (tickle, sour taste, arm restraint, and masked stranger) at 4 and 12 months of age. Three of the 4 situations showed evidence of increasing specificity over time. In response to tickle, the number of infants exhibiting joy expressions increased and the number exhibiting interest, surprise, and surprise blends decreased from 4 to 12 months. In tasting a sour substance, more infants exhibited disgust and fewer exhibited joy and interest expressions, and fear and surprise blends over time. For arm restraint, more infants exhibited anger expressions and anger blends and fewer exhibited interest and surprise expressions and surprise blends over time. In response to a masked stranger, however, no evidence of increased specificity was found. Overall, these findings suggest that infants increasingly exhibit particular expressions in response to specific stimuli during the 1st year of life. These data provide partial support for the hypothesis that facial expressivity becomes increasingly organized over time.

Viral marketing: the use of surprise

Abstract: Viral marketing involves consumers passing along a company's marketing message to their friends, family, and colleagues. This chapter reviews viral marketing campaigns and argues that the emotion of surprise often is at work and that this mechanism resembles that of word-of-mouth marketing. Examining the literature on the emotion of surprise, the chapter next explains how a surprise is created and shared. Overall, the chapter shows how surprise can be a useful tool in a viral marketing campaign. Lastly, conclusions of interest to managers are drawn.

Emotional ratings of music excerpts in the western art music repertoire and their self-organization in the Kohonen neural network

Abstract: Suggestions for basic emotional music excerpts in the western art music repertoire were collected through a survey that was sent to about 500 music professionals. A total of 78 music excerpts were then tested in the listening experiments 1 (n = 44) and 2 (n = 55), considering emotional quality and intensity, and the topological organization of the music excerpts in the basic emotion dimensions (i.e. joy, sadness, anger, fear, surprise and disgust) was examined using Kohonen’s neural network. The results suggest that, in general, the basic emotions can be considered as distinct emotional dimensions in music. Joy and sadness seem to be easier to express and recognize than fear, anger and surprise. The participants’ level of music education or other background factors had no effect on emotional or intensity judgments. The results also suggest that the emotional connotations in modern music are not so well established as in music that is more tonal (i.e. Baroque, Classical, and Romantic).

Deleuze and Guattari's Last Enigmatic Message

Abstract: For many, Gilles Deleuze's last message, What is Philosophy?, written together with Felix Guattari, came as a surprise, even as something of a disappointment. Indeed, in What is Philosophy? we face...

The territorial bases of health policymaking in the UK after devolution

Abstract: For all that there is a well-entrenched sense of the differences among the different peoples of the UK, there has been surprising reluctance to accept the extent to which these differences translate into divergent public policy trajectories. That means the extent of policy divergence since devolution has been something of an uncomfortable surprise for many. Its speed, given the common heritages, similar organizations, shared problems, and pressures for convergence between the four systems might startle – in an increasingly globalized world (and medicine has long been cosmopolitan) their divergence is striking and explaining it important. If there is to be change in a mature welfare state such as that of the United Kingdom, it will most likely be through the accretion of such changes to existing systems. And, I argue, the changes reflect the distinct politics of place and the way policy makers, often insensibly, respond to their particular problems and debates in ways that vary territorially and produce te...

Uncertainty and surprise in complex systems : questions working with the unexpected

Abstract: Uncertainty and Surprise: An Introduction.- Understanding Social and Economic Systems as Evolutionary Complex Systems.- Managing the Unexpected.- Surprises in Half of a Century.- An Integrated View of Uncertainty and Surprise.- Fundamental 'Uncertainty' in Science.- The Complementary Nature of Coordination Dynamics: Self-Organization and the Creation of Information.- The tyranny of Many Dimensionless Constants: A Constraint on Knowability.- View for the Inside: The Task of Managing Uncertainty and Surprise.- Chaos.- The Social Construction of Uncertainty in Healthcare Delivery.- Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise.- Medical Errors and Microsystems: The Best Things Cannot be Told.- Organization and Leadership in Hospitals.- Fundamental Uncertainty in Business: Real Options.- Approaching the Unknown in Appalachia.- Uncertainty and Certainty.- Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion.

Surprise volume and heteroskedasticity in equity market returns

Abstract: Heteroskedasticity in returns may be explainable by trading volume. We use different volume variables, including surprise volume—i.e. unexpected above-average trading activity—which is derived from uncorrelated volume innovations. Assuming weakly exogenous volume, we extend the Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) model by an asymmetric GARCH in-mean specification following Golsten et al. (1993). Model estimation for the US as well as six large equity markets shows that surprise volume provides superior model fit and helps to explain volatility persistence as well as excess kurtosis. Surprise volume reveals a significant positive market risk premium, asymmetry and a surprise volume effect in conditional variance. The findings suggest that e.g. a surprise volume shock (breakdown)—i.e. large (small) contemporaneous and small (large) lagged surprise volume—relates to increased (decreased) conditional market variance and return.

The processing of affectively valenced stimuli: The role of surprise

Abstract: Two experiments tested the hypothesis that the surprise mechanism activates a threat detection system that prioritises the processing of threat-related stimuli. In Experiment 1, participants responded to a dot that appeared during the presentation of two words. In the critical trial, one of the two words was either pleasant or unpleasant. In Experiment 2, depending on the condition, the participants had to decide whether at least one of two simultaneously presented pictures depicted either a pleasant or an unpleasant stimulus. In the critical trial, both a pleasant and an unpleasant picture appeared. In both experiments, the stimuli in the critical trial were presented either during routine behaviour or in the context of a surprising event. The results showed that during routine behaviour unpleasant stimuli received more attentive resources than pleasant stimuli only if the affective valence of the stimuli was action-relevant (Experiment 2). In contrast, in the context of surprise, unpleasant words engage...

Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11

Abstract: Part 1 Preface Part 2 Introduction Part 3 Part I: From the 9/11 Commission's Report to the Intelligence Reform Act Chapter 4 1. The Commission's Organizational Recommendations Chapter 5 2. The Congressional Response Part 6 Part II: Toward the Optimal Organization of the U.S. Intelligence System Chapter 7 3. The History and Anatomy of Successful Surprise Attacks Chapter 8 4. The Principles of Intelligence Chapter 9 5. The Principles of Organization Chapter 10 6. Lessons from the Organization of Intelligence in Other Countries Part 11 Conclusion: What Is to Be Done?

Bolt from the Blue or Avoidable Failure? Revisiting September 11 and the Origins of Strategic Surprise

Abstract: Drawing on the strategic surprise, warning-response, and foreign policy literature, this article argues that the September 11 terror attacks should be regarded as a strategic surprise and examines ...

E-mentoring: does it have a place in medicine?

Abstract: Technology supported mentoring within medical settings can complement and extend face to face monitoring. Mentoring for doctors is clearly an important issue and has been the focus of recent debate.1–3 We would like to add our own thoughts in one of the more controversial areas—e-mentoring. Over the past decade there has been a substantial increase in work into e-learning support, such as e-moderating,4 and other mentoring and support systems such as online communities of practice.5 It is not the intention here to explore these literatures but to concentrate specifically on one area—e-mentoring. E-mentoring has been defined by Bierema and Merriam6 as “a computer mediated, mutually beneficial relationship between a mentor and a protege which provides learning, advising, encouraging, promoting, and modeling, that is often boundaryless, egalitarian, and qualitatively different than face-to-face mentoring” (page 212). This definition has two elements that distinguish it from traditional mentoring—the boundaryless configuration and the egalitarian quality of the exchange. Although there has been much work on the effectiveness of non-electronic mentoring, less is understood about the dynamics, context, or results of e-mentoring.6 Many educators and organisations (including the medical profession) remain suspect about the new and growing field of e-mentoring. However, research by Preece and her colleagues7 has shown how the internet can be used to express empathy, particularly in online patient support communities. Furthermore, Griffiths8 has argued that online relationships can be just as real and intense as those in the offline world, and there should be little surprise that psychologists and educators are beginning to establish online therapeutic relationships. The argument also holds for e-mentoring. The time has come to embrace the new technology and to carry out evaluative research into this potentially innovative form …

Patterns of surprise: the "Aleatory Object" in psychoanalytic ethnography and cyclical fandom

Abstract: This article studies one media fan’s consumption patterns, arguing that media fandom has been restrictively defined in cultural studies to date as a matter of faithfulness to singular fan objects. Contra such definitions, the article addresses cyclical fandom, wherein the fan-consumer constantly moves from one fan object to another, experiencing intense affective relationships to a variety of texts. This case study employs psychoanalytic ethnography to analyze such a consumption pattern, where the “surprise” of new fandoms is repeatedly sought. Christopher Bollas’s psychoanalytic concept of the “aleatory object” is used to interpret self-narratives of cyclical fandom.