Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1997"
Book•
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: The relationship between political and economic cycles is one of the most widely studied topics in political economics as mentioned in this paper, and a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence is presented.
Abstract: The relationship between political and economic cycles is one of the most widely studied topics in political economics. This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of elections, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.A common belief is that voters reward incumbents who artificially create favorable conditions before an election, even though the economy may take a turn for the worse immediately thereafter. The authors argue that the dynamics of political cycles are far more complex. In their review of the main theoretical approaches to the issues, they demonstrate the multifaceted relationships between macroeconomic and political policies. They also present a broad range of empirical data, from the United States as well as OECD countries. One of their most striking findings is that the United States is not exceptional; the relationships between political and economic cycles are remarkably similar in other democracies, particularly those with two-party systems.
1,363 citations
TL;DR: This article found that women are less politically interested, informed, and efficacious than men and that this gender gap in political engagement has consequences for political participation, and that these gender differences in political orientation seem to be specific to politics-rather than the manifestation of general personal attributes.
Abstract: This paper demonstrates that women are less politically interested, informed, and efficacious than men and that this gender gap in political engagement has consequences for political participation. Only when gender differences in political interest, information, and efficacy are considered along with gender differences in resources can we explain the relatively small disparity between the sexes with respect to political activity. When we searched for the origins of the gender gap in political engagement, we found that it can be explained only partially by gender differences in factors such as education that are associated with political engagement Furthermore, these gender differences in political orientation seem to be specific to politics-rather than the manifestation of general personal attributes Investigation of the extent to which the cues received by males and females that politics is a man's world are responsible for the gender gap in political engagement yielded results that were suggestive, but ...
743 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed two-candidate elections in which voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters and showed that the fraction of voters whose vote depends on their private information goes to zero as the size of the electorate goes to infinity.
Abstract: We analyze two-candidate elections in which voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters. Each voter has noisy private information about the state variable. We show that the fraction of voters whose vote depends on their private information goes to zero as the size of the electorate goes to infinity. Nevertheless, elections fully aggregate information in the sense that the chosen candidate would not change if all private information were common knowledge. Equilibrium voting behavior is to a large extent determined by the electoral rule, i.e., if a candidate is required to get at least x percent of the vote in order to win the election, then in equilibrium this candidate gets very close to x percent of the vote with probability close to one. Finally, if the distribution from which preferences are drawn is uncertain, then elections will generally not satisfy full information equivalence and the fraction of voters who take informative action does not converge to zero.
599 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of candidate demographic characteristics on voting behavior, specifically candidate gender, was examined for voters in low-information elections, showing that women candidates are more liberal than men candidates of the same party.
Abstract: Theory: Theories of low-information voting are used to examine the effect of candidate demographic characteristics on voting behavior, specifically candidate gender. Hypotheses: For voters in low-information elections, candidate gender operates as a social information cue signaling that women candidates are more liberal than men candidates of the same party. As a result, the gender of a candidate affects ideological voting. Method: Logistic regression analysis is performed on data from the 1986 through 1994 American National Election Studies. Results: Women Democratic candidates fare better than men Democratic candidates among more liberal voters and worse among conservative voters, especially those with minimal knowledge of the candidates. The effect is less clear with Republican women candidates who provide conflicting informational cues (woman and Republican).
498 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: Alvarez as discussed by the authors examined how voters make their decisions in presidential elections and found that voters are not likely to vote for candidates about whom they know very little, and showed that a tremendous amount of information is made available about presidential candidates.
Abstract: R. Michael Alvarez examines how voters make their decisions in presidential elections. He begins with the assumption that voters have neither the incentive nor the inclination to be well-informed about politics and presidential candidates. Candidates themselves have incentives to provide ambiguous information about themselves, their records and their issue positions. Yet the author shows that a tremendous amount of information is made available about presidential candidates. And he uncovers clear and striking evidence that people are not likely to vote for candidates about whom they know very little. Alvarez explores how voters learn about candidates through the course of a campaign. He provides a detailed analysis of the media coverage of presidential campaigns and shows that there is a tremendous amount of media coverage of these campaigns, that much of this coverage is about issues and is informative, and that voters learn from this coverage.The paperback edition of this work has been updated to include information on the 1996 Presidential election."Information and Elections" is a book that will be read by all who are interested in campaigns and electoral behavior in presidential and other elections."Thoughtfully conceptualized, painstakingly analyzed, with empirically significant conclusions on presidential election voting behavior, this book is recommended for both upper-division undergraduate and graduate collections." --"Choice"R. Michael Alvarez is Associate Professor of Political Science, California Institute of Technology.
451 citations
TL;DR: The hallmark of the new positive theories of the judiciary is that Supreme Court justices will frequently defer to the preferences of Congress when making decisions, particularly in statutory cases in which it is purportedly easy for Congress to reverse the Court as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The hallmark of the new positive theories of the judiciary is that Supreme Court justices will frequently defer to the preferences of Congress when making decisions, particularly in statutory cases in which it is purportedly easy for Congress to reverse the Court. Alternatively, judicial attitudinalists argue that the institutional structures facing the Court allow the justices to vote their sincere policy preferences. This paper compares these sincere and sophisticated models of voting behavior by Supreme Court justices. Using a variety of tests on the votes of Supreme Court justices in statutory cases decided between 1947 and 1992, I find some evidence of sophisticated behavior, but most tests suggest otherwise. Moreover, direct comparisons between the two models unambiguously favor the attitudinal model. I conclude that the justices overwhelmingly engage in rationally sincere behavior.
265 citations
TL;DR: Results from a US college student sample and a US 1992 voter sample replicate previous findings of more male support of conservative ideology, military programmes, and punitive policies and more female support of social programmes and equal rights.
Abstract: Survey data over recent decades show men to differ from women on a number of political attitudes and on political party identification. We provide evidence that many such differences can be attributed to individual differences in Social Dominance Orientation (SDO)--preference for inequality among social groups--that are sex linked. Results from a US college student sample (N = 463) and a US 1992 voter sample (N = 478) replicate previous findings of more male support of conservative ideology, military programmes, and punitive policies and more female support of social programmes and equal rights. Consistent with our hypotheses, men were more social dominance oriented than women, and SDO accounted for much of the sex-linked variability in political attitudes, SDO was also a significant predictor of candidate choice in the US 1992 presidential election through its influence on policy attitudes and political ideology. Implications of these results for theories of gender and politics are discussed.
264 citations
TL;DR: In this article, voting behavior on 16 environmental ballot propositions in California was studied to characterize the demand for environmental goods, and it was found that the environment is a normal good for people with mean incomes, but some environmental goods are inferior for those with high incomes.
Abstract: This article studies voting behavior on 16 environmental ballot propositions in California in order to characterize the demand for environmental goods. The environment is found to be a normal good for people with mean incomes, but some environmental goods are inferior for those with high incomes, at least when supplied collectively. An important “price” of environmental goods is reduced income in the construction, farming, forestry, and manufacturing industries. Income and price can explain most of the variation in voting; there is little need to introduce “preference” variables such as political ideology.
260 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore whether the changing nature of congressional campaigns has altered the magnitude of the effects of corruption charges on congressional election outcomes and find that moral violations were the most consequential for candidates and conflict of interest the least.
Abstract: Fifteen years ago, Peters and Welch investigated the effects of corruption charges on the outcomes of U.S. House elections. Their evidence from 1968 to 1978 indicated that charges generally produced a decline in vote share of between 6% and 11%, depending upon the nature of the charge. Morals violations were the most consequential for candidates and conflict of interest the least. Continuing changes in American politics and the nature of campaigns have made corruption charges even more common and, indeed, central to many races. In the following research note, we explore whether the changing nature of congressional campaigns has altered the magnitude of the effects of corruption charges on congressional election outcomes.
258 citations
TL;DR: This article found that con arguments were more persuasive when they were also hard and easy, while the intensity of partisanship mediated only on health care, a split that did not emerge on NAFTA.
Abstract: Theory: Just as persuasion is the crux of politics, so too is argument the key to political persuasion. Political arguments about policy have at least two dimensions, namely, whether the argument is for or against the policy and whether the argument is hard or easy to comprehend. Combining these two dimensions leads to four argument types: hard-pro, hard-con, easy-pro, and easy-con. Our purpose is to determine which of these four types more strongly influence citizens' policy judgments. Hypotheses: Con arguments will be more persuasive than pro arguments. The literature does not offer a clear prediction about the relative effectiveness of hard and easy arguments or the four argument types. Methods: We use a within and between experimental design, measuring subjects' opinions about NAFTA and health care at three points in time. Opinion change is analyzed by ANOVA. Results: Arguments against NAFTA and health care worked especially well. On NAFTA con arguments were most persuasive when they were also hard, on health care when they were also easy. Political awareness mediated the effectiveness of arguments across both issues, while the intensity of partisanship mediated only on health care. We attribute this latter difference to the partisan split in Congress on health care, a split that did not emerge on NAFTA.
211 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore linkages between electoral politics and judicial voting behavior in the context of models that take into account personal, contextual, institutional, and case-related influences on courts.
Abstract: In this paper, we explore linkages between electoral politics and judicial voting behavior in the context of models that take into account personal, contextual, institutional, and case-related influences on courts. Using probit (ordered and binary), we examine the votes cast in death penalty decisions by supreme court justices in eight American states from 1983 through 1988 We anticipate and find evidence that institutional features are prominent in shaping the distribution of institutional preferences Fundamentally, justices have predispositions that are consistent with the states' electoral and ideological environments Moreover, these institutional arrangements subsequently enhance or restrict opportunities for individual members, once selected, to exhibit their predispositions Personal preferences notwithstanding, individual justices' support for the death penalty is affected by competitive electoral conditions and institutional arrangements that create linkages with the political environment Finally, ...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined how politicians' voting patterns change when they retire and no longer face the threat of lost campaign contributions and concluded that contributions are causing individual politicians to vote differently.
Abstract: Despite all the work on how campaign donations influence a politician's behavior, the nagging question of whether contributions alter how the politician votes or whether these contributions constitute support for like‐minded individuals remains unresolved. By combining the campaign contributions literature with the work on politicians intrinsically valuing policy outcomes, we offer a simple test that examines how politicians' voting patterns change when they retire and no longer face the threat of lost campaign contributions. If contributions are causing individual politicians to vote differently, there should be systematic changes in voting behavior when future contributions are eliminated. In contrast, if contributors donate to candidates who intrinsically value the same policies, there should be no changes in how a politician votes during the last period.
TL;DR: The authors analyzes the relationship between religion and political behavior in recent presidential elections in the United States and finds that the magnitude of the religious cleavage remains substantial but has declined during the past nine presidential elections.
Abstract: This study analyzes the relationship between religion and political behavior in recent presidential elections in the United States. The magnitude of the religious cleavage remains substantial but has declined during the past nine presidential elections. The single factor behind this decline is the reduction in support for Republican candidates among denominationally liberal Protestants, whose changing voting behavior is a function of their increasingly liberal views of social issues. The political alignments of Catholics and conservative Protestants have been very stable relative to the electorate‐wide mean over this time period, and the authors find no evidence of increased political mobilization among conservative Protestants.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This article found that voters who perceived the economy as poor, perceived themselves as threatened financially by illegal immigrants, or who lived closer to the immigrant source were more likely to support the measure.
Abstract: Objective. We propose a new explanation for the appeal of Proposition 187 to California voters during the 1994 election and offer a new approach to studying the political context in which it gained voter approval. We argue that support for this proposition was an example of cyclical nativism, which was provoked primarily by California's economic downturn during the early 1990s. We also argue that the issue of illegal immigration was politicized during the election by the gubernatorial and senatorial candidates and that this endogeneity must be considered in any analysis of voter support for this proposition. Methods. To test this theory, we develop hypotheses about how nativist attitudes might be reflected in the voting behavior of specific groups based on economic perceptions, race, education, and area of residence. We test these hypotheses using Voter News Service (VNS) exitpoll data from the 1994 California election. We formulate a two-stage probit model to allow for the endogeneity. Results. We find support for our nativist theory and our endogeneity argument in the data. Voters who perceived the economy as poor, perceived themselves as threatened financially by illegal immigrants, or who lived closer to the immigrant source were more likely to support the measure. We also find that voters were relying on candidate endorsements, rather than on party identification or political ideology, in making their vote choice. Conclusions. These findings cause us to conclude, specifically, that nativism, fueled by economic conditions, was a salient factor leading many Californians to support Proposition 187 and, generally, that it is necessary to consider the effects of candidate endorsements on proposition voting.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that political behavior in postcommunist societies is fundamentally structured by interpretations of the transition histories, which were centrally constitutive events, and propose a structural equation model in which understandings of the past mediate the relationship between personal circumstances and satisfaction with economic reforms.
Abstract: Electorates in several East European countries have thrown their support behind reconstructed communist parties. Is personal economic hardship driving this phenomenon? We argue that political behavior in postcommunist societies is fundamentally structured by interpretations of the transition histories, which were centrally constitutive events. We propose a structural equation model in which understandings of the past mediate the relationship between personal circumstances and satisfaction with economic reforms. We analyze cross-sectional data collected in Poland immediately after the 1993 parliamentary elections and find, consistent with our hypotheses, that understandings of the past exert as much of an effect on attitudes toward reforms as do personal economic assessments. We use multinomial logit to analyze vote choice and find that personal economic circumstances are of little importance. Attitudes toward economic reforms have a limited effect on voting behavior, but their importance is eclipsed by understandings of the past and other factors, such as religion.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: Early economic models assumed that the maximizing behavior of individual actors was the primary determinant of political as well as market outcomes as discussed by the authors, but this approach revolved several long-standing puzzles in political science, but created new anomalies in place of the old: why do citizens vote in large elections? Why are democratic legislatures as stable as they are?
Abstract: Early economic models assumed that the maximizing behavior of individual actors was the primary determinant of political as well as market outcomes This approach revolved several long-standing puzzles in political science, but created new anomalies in place of the old: why do citizens vote in large elections? Why are democratic legislatures as stable as they are? Partly in response to these anomalies, the emphasis has shifted from the study of self-interested choice, to the study of constraints on self-interested choice This has opened new doors for the study of bureaucracies, parties, and other fundamental political institutions
Book•
09 Jun 1997
TL;DR: Whitby as mentioned in this paper explores how African-Americans are represented in Congress by focusing on the influence of African-American constituents on the policy-making behavior of members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Abstract: Kenny J. Whitby explores how African-Americans are represented in Congress by focusing on the influence of African-American constituents on the policy-making behavior of members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The author uses the topics of voting rights, civil rights, and racial based redistricting to see how members of Congress respond to the interests of black voters. Whitby's analysis weighs the relative effect of district characteristics such as partisanship, regional location, degree of urbanization, and the size of the black constituency on the voting behavior of House members over time. Whitby explores how black interests are represented in formal, descriptive, symbolic, and substantive terms. Whitby finds changes in party and regional support for civil rights legislation over time, differences in support for final passage and for amendments to civil rights and voting rights legislation, and the significant differences race per se makes in representing black interests. He shows the political trade-offs involved in redistricting to increase the number of African-Americans in Congress.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed two-candidate elections in which voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters, and they showed that the fraction of voters whose vote depends on their private information goes to zero as the size of the electorate goes to infinity.
Abstract: We analyze two-candidate elections in which voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters. Each voter has noisy private information about the state variable. We show that the fraction of voters whose vote depends on their private information goes to zero as the size of the electorate goes to infinity. Nevertheless elections fully aggregate information in the sense that the chose candidate would not change if all private information were common knowledge among voters. We also show that the equilibrium voting behavior is to a large extent determined by the electoral rule, i.e., if a candidate is required to get at least x percent of the vote in order to win the election then in equilibrium this candidate gets very close to x percent of the vote with probability close to one.
TL;DR: In this article, the accessibility of policy attitudes from memory depends on political expertise and the level of expertise is associated with sociotropic, ideological, and policy voting in presidential elections.
Abstract: Recent research on political expertise indicates that what citizens know and how much they think about politics affect the political choices they make. So it would seem for issue voting in presidential elections. Unfor tunately, prior work has yielded such conflicting results that we lack a clear understanding of how expertise affects the vote. Drawing on re search from social and political psychology, I argue that the accessibility of policy attitudes from memory depends on political expertise. Given greater accessibility of policy attitudes, issue voting should be more pro nounced at higher levels of expertise. In contrast to most previous work, this research measures expertise with interval-level knowledge scales and employs formal interaction tests. Data from the 1984 and 1988 National Election Study surveys are used to test my hypotheses. Results show that increasing expertise results in higher levels of sociotropic, ideological, and policy voting.
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of both personal contact and individual perception of the partisan nature of the local environment on voting behavior were investigated. But they found little support for personal contact as a mechanism of contextual influence, but reveal that perception of partisan dominance markedly enhances the impact of partisan identification on vote choice.
Abstract: How are individual voters influenced by their social surroundings? Though numerous studies establish that voting behavior can be influenced by the social context, we lack a full understanding of how the actions of individual voters can be influenced by the composition of their social environment. In this paper, I develop and test a micro-level model of the operation of contextual influences on political behavior. The model specifies the effects of both personal contact and individual perception of the partisan nature of the local environment. The data show little support for personal contact as a mechanism of contextual influence, but reveal that perception of partisan dominance markedly enhances the impact of partisan identification on vote choice.
TL;DR: This paper found that cognitive mobilization has the largest effect on political literacy, followed fairly closely by structural roles, and that self-selection causes much of the relationship between political literacy and education, making education's cognitive mobilization potential far smaller than most political scientists assumed.
Abstract: This paper tests cognitive mobilization, structural role, and traditional socialization agent theories of political literacy, conceptualized as the potential for informed political participation. Political literacy cannot be measured directly, but we presume that if people are politically literate, they understand party differences and know basic political concepts and facts. Other names for this concept include political expertise, political awareness, and civic competence. Using Jennings and Niemi's youth-parent panel socialization data, we conclude that cognitive mobilization has the largest effect on political literacy, followed fairly closely by structural roles. Socialization agents have a very minor effect. This conclusion partly supports prevailing cognitive mobilization explanations of this concept. However, self-selection causes much of the relationship between political literacy and education, making education's cognitive mobilization potential far smaller than most political scientists assumed. Political involvement and ability are the main sources of cognitive mobilization instead, and education's spurious cross-sectional effect primarily reflects structural roles.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the political alignments of the middle class through an investigation of change in voting behavior among two of its principal segments: managers and professionals, and found that there has been a long-term shift away from support for Republican presidential candidates to support for Democratic candidates.
Abstract: Research on the nature and bases of the political alignments of the middle class in the United States has produced extensive disagreements but little resolution of fundamental controversies. We address unresolved questions about the political alignments of the middle class through an investigation of change in voting behavior among two of its principal segments: managers and professionals. Among professionals, but not among managers, there has been a long-term shift away from support for Republican presidential candidates to support for Democratic candidates. Competing hypotheses about the sources of these trends are tested using data from the National Election Studies. Increasingly liberal attitudes toward social issues, not changes in economic evaluations or sociodemographic composition, explain the growing tendency of professionals to vote Democratic and their increasing divergence from managers. Party identification and partisan affect substantially mediate the effects of social group membership, views of the welfare state, and attitudes towards social issues. The relevance of these findings to understanding the Democratic realignment of professionals and the stable Republican alignment of managers is discussed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use National Election Studies data to investigate class-specific changes in voting behavior in presidential elections and then analyze the causal mechanisms explaining the three most significant class specific trends, including the realignment of self-employed with the Republican Party, professionals' realignment with the Democratic Party, and unskilled workers' historically high levels of supportfor Democratic candidates have eroded since the 1980 Presidential election.
Abstract: Recent debates over the relationship between class and voting in democratic capitalist societies havefocusedprimarily on the question of whether levels of class voting have declined. As a result,few studies have distinguished between "class voting" as an outcome versus classfactors as causal mechanisms of vote choice. This distinction is critical to understanding what role class-relatedfactors play in explaining vote choice - and thus to advancing debates over the changing relationship between class and political behavior in the U.S. and elsewhere. We use National Election Studies data to first investigate class-specific changes in voting behavior in presidential elections and then analyze the causal mechanisms explaining the three most significant class-specific trends. Wefind that while the realignment of the self-employed with the Republican Party is largely explained by class-relatedfactors, professionals' realignment with the Democratic Party is a product of their increasingly liberal views of social issues. Also, prompted by higher levels of economic satisfaction and declining supportfor the welfare state, unskilled workers' historically high levels of supportfor Democratic candidates have eroded since the 1980 Presidential election. Our analyses also show that while class politics increasingly competes with other salient bases of voting behavior, the political impact of social issue attitudes has not displaced the class cleavage in recentpresidential
TL;DR: This paper examined differences among groups of listeners to political talk radio using data from a sample survey of adults in San Diego, California (N=583) from the perspective of Grunig's situational involvement model.
Abstract: This study examined differences among groups of listeners to political talk radio using data from a sample survey of adults in San Diego, California (N=583) from the perspective of Grunig's situational involvement model. More involved political talk radio listeners were characterized by greater political and social participation than less involved. The political talk radio audience was found to be higher in social economic status, more socially and politically integrated in society, and more attentive to political issues. Differences in political variables remained after statistical controls for education, age, political interest, and general exposure to television, newspapers, and radio were applied. Among more active audience members, limited motivational data suggest that political talk radio served a mix of needs, including seeking political information, interpreting reality, or companionship through parasocial interaction. Thus, more active listeners may also be less susceptible to potentially propag...
TL;DR: The principal-agent approach has been useful for understanding the behavior of individuals in profit seeking organizations as well as individuals in political organizations such as legislatures and regulatory agencies as mentioned in this paper, and applying principles from the agency theory framework to the behavior of individuals at various hierarchical levels of the mass media firm reveals important variables such as monitoring costs individual motivations and im plicit organizational control mechanisms that may significantly impact media content.
Abstract: Media organizations are both political and economic actors They have the ability to influence public opinion voting behavior and government policy At the same time they tend to be motivated primarily by profit maximizing goals Agency theory also called the principal-agent approach has been useful for understanding the behavior of individuals in profit seeking organizations as well as individuals in political organizations such as legislatures and regulatory agencies Applying principles from the agency theory framework to the behav ior of individuals at various hierarchical levels of the mass media firm reveals important variables such as monitoring costs individual motivations and im plicit organizational control mechanisms that may significantly impact media content Focusing on these variables can help explain variability in media con tent across different media organizations
TL;DR: In this article, a telephone survey was used to determine the basis for voting behavior on a Colorado ballot initiative to ban steel-jawed traps and snares that passed in November 1996.
Abstract: Voters are unlikely to be guided by a systematic assessment of information regarding the consequences of wildlife ballot initiatives; the time investment is too high and the topic involvement is too low. Instead, they form heuristics or decision rules to guide their behavior. Heuristics are formed from a subset of available information that triggers general attitudes or basic beliefs that are already formed and easily accessible to the individual. Guided by this explanation, a telephone survey was used to determine the basis for voting behavior on a Colorado ballot initiative to ban steel‐jawed traps and snares that passed in November 1996. Open‐ended, thought‐listing procedures were used in asking voters why they voted their stated position. A high proportion of people listed few beliefs associated with their voting behavior, a finding more prevalent with yes‐voters, (those in favor of banning trapping) than no‐voters (those against a ban on trapping). While the substance of beliefs listed by no...
Book•
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: The Evolution of Political Campaigning Modern Political Communication Consulting Understanding the Public Opinion Process in the United States Understanding Political Leadership Political Communication Effects Political Communication Research Methods and Applications Political Advertising Legal and Ethical Considerations References Index.
Abstract: Series Foreword by Robert E. Denton, Jr. Introduction by Dan Nimmo The Evolution of Political Campaigning Modern Political Communication Consulting Understanding the Public Opinion Process in the United States Understanding Political Leadership Political Communication Effects Political Communication Research Methods and Applications Political Advertising Legal and Ethical Considerations References Index
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the most popular presidential election returns at the state and district level as a proxy for constituency ideology and concluded that the use of this proxy should be with great caution.
Abstract: Scholars studying the determinants of congressional voting behavior have always faced the problem of how to measure the effects of constituency influence. In place of random surveys in congressional districts, which are too costly to conduct nationwide, scholars have employed a variety of proxy variables to measure constituency attitudes. In this research note we review these proxies and test the reliability and validity of the most popular, that is, presidential election returns at the state and district level. The use of this proxy rests upon two assumptions: (a) short-term factors affecting the vote have a more or less uniform effect across subnational constituencies and (b) constituency ideology is the sole long-term factor affecting the vote. Both of these assumptions prove to be empirically questionable, leading us to conclude that presiden tial election returns should be used as a proxy for constituency ideology only with great caution.
TL;DR: This article found that voters punish those incumbents who perform badly and reward those who do a good job when economic conditions are bad, and that voters do not seem to affect popularity or vote choice all the time and under all circumstances.
Abstract: The scholarly literature dealing with the effects of economic conditions on government support and election outcomes in advanced industrialized democracies is extensive.The bulk of this research relates government support and vote choice to objective economic conditions or subjective perceptions of those conditions in order to establish whether and to what extent such a relationship exists. For overviews, see Michael Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988); Peter Nannestad and Martin Paldam, ‘The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years’, Public Choice, 79 (1994), 213–45. Based on the so-called reward–punishment (or responsibility) hypothesis, empirical studies of economic conditions and government support often find that voters punish those incumbents who perform badly and reward those who do a good job.Lewis-Beck finds a general consensus among scholars that ‘when economic conditions are bad, citizens vote against the ruling party’ (Michael Lewis-Beck, ‘Introduction’, in Helmut Norpoth, Michael Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991), p.2). See also V. O. Key, The Responsible Electorate (New York: Vintage Books, 1968); Gerald Kramer, ‘Short-Term Fluctuations in US Voting Behavior, 1896–1964’, American Political Science Review, 65 (1971), 131–43. The reward–punish hypothesis states that the mass public holds the incumbent government accountable for the state of the economy. When the economy performs well, the government can take credit, but when there is a slump, the executive or the governing parties are blamed by the voters. Other hypotheses that have been tested are the issue-priority and the stability hypotheses (see Harold Clarke, Euel Elliott, William Mishler, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley and Gary Zuk, Controversies in Political Economy: Canada, Great Britain, the United States (Boulder: Westview Press, 1992)).,Although frequently supportive of the general conclusion that the economy affects politics, the evidence for economic effects on government popularity or vote choice is not always conclusive or straightforward. Several authors have explored why economic conditions do not seem to affect popularity or vote choice all the time and under all circumstances. See, for example, Martin Paldam, ‘How Robust is the Vote Function? A Study of Seventeen Nations over Four Decades’, in Norpoth, Lewis-Beck and Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics, pp. 9–31; Christopher J. Anderson, ‘The Dynamics of Public Support for Coalition Governments’, Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 350–83. In fact, over the years the notion that governments in democratic polities are in some way or another judged by how they perform at managing the economy has almost taken on the ring of a social scientific fact.
TL;DR: In this article, a Russian-American team of political geographers analyzes voting patterns in Moscow's rayons from the 1993 and 1995 Russian State Duma and 1996 presidential elections and investigates the extent to which spatial polarization manifest in economic and housing trends in the city is reflected in the development of political cleavages and voting behavior.
Abstract: A Russian-American team of political geographers analyzes voting patterns in Moscow's rayons from the 1993 and 1995 Russian State Duma and 1996 presidential elections. More specifically, it investigates: (1) the extent to which spatial polarization manifest in economic and housing trends in the city is reflected in the development of political cleavages and voting behavior; and (2) whether contextual influences, in addition to these socioeconomic effects, are apparent in areas undergoing such polarization. Voting patterns in an inner-Moscow neighborhood undergoing gentrification and new commercial construction are examined in an attempt to uncover additional insights into how these processes unfold at a finer spatial scale. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O10, RIO. 5 figures, 8 tables, 58 references.