Showing papers by "Ashley Akbari published in 2021"

First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland.

Abstract: Reports of ChAdOx1 vaccine–associated thrombocytopenia and vascular adverse events have led to some countries restricting its use. Using a national prospective cohort, we estimated associations between exposure to first-dose ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccination and hematological and vascular adverse events using a nested incident-matched case-control study and a confirmatory self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis. An association was found between ChAdOx1 vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (0–27 d after vaccination; adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41–13.83), with an estimated incidence of 1.13 (0.62–1.63) cases per 100,000 doses. An SCCS analysis confirmed that this was unlikely due to bias (RR = 1.98 (1.29–3.02)). There was also an increased risk for arterial thromboembolic events (aRR = 1.22, 1.12–1.34) 0–27 d after vaccination, with an SCCS RR of 0.97 (0.93–1.02). For hemorrhagic events 0–27 d after vaccination, the aRR was 1.48 (1.12–1.96), with an SCCS RR of 0.95 (0.82–1.11). A first dose of ChAdOx1 was found to be associated with small increased risks of ITP, with suggestive evidence of an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. The attenuation of effect found in the SCCS analysis means that there is the potential for overestimation of the reported results, which might indicate the presence of some residual confounding or confounding by indication. Public health authorities should inform their jurisdictions of these relatively small increased risks associated with ChAdOx1. No positive associations were seen between BNT162b2 and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. New data from the EAVE II cohort in Scotland suggests that a first dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine might be associated with a small increase in the risk of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura between 0 and 27 d after vaccination.

Examining variation in the measurement of multimorbidity in research: a systematic review of 566 studies.

Abstract: Funding: This work was supported by supported by Health Data Research UK (HDR-UK; grant number CFC0110) which receives its funding from the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust. .

Effectiveness of first dose of COVID-19 vaccines against hospital admissions in Scotland: National prospective cohort study of 5.4 million people

Abstract: Background: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated high efficacy against infection in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. There is an urgent need to study the ‘real-world’ effects of these vaccines. The aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the first dose of these COVID-19 vaccines in preventing hospital admissions. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database comprising of linked vaccination, primary care, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing, hospitalisation and mortality records for 5.4 million people in Scotland (covering ~99% of population). A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalisation (defined as 1- Adjusted Hazard Ratio) following the first dose of vaccine. Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination). Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK. Conflict of Interest: AS is a member of the Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer’s COVID-19Advisory Group and the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NERVTAG) Risk Stratification Subgroup. CRS declares funding from the MRC, NIHR, CSO and New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and Health Research Council during the conduct of this study. SVK is co-chair of the Scottish Government’s Expert Reference Group on COVID-19 and ethnicity, is a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) subgroup on ethnicity and acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship, MRC and CSO. All other authors report no conflicts of interest. Ethical Approval: Approvals were obtained from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02 (reference number: 12/SS/0201) and Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care (reference number: 1920-0279).

Linked electronic health records for research on a nationwide cohort of more than 54 million people in England: data resource.

Abstract: Objective To describe a novel England-wide electronic health record (EHR) resource enabling whole population research on covid-19 and cardiovascular disease while ensuring data security and privacy and maintaining public trust. Design Data resource comprising linked person level records from national healthcare settings for the English population, accessible within NHS Digital’s new trusted research environment. Setting EHRs from primary care, hospital episodes, death registry, covid-19 laboratory test results, and community dispensing data, with further enrichment planned from specialist intensive care, cardiovascular, and covid-19 vaccination data. Participants 54.4 million people alive on 1 January 2020 and registered with an NHS general practitioner in England. Main measures of interest Confirmed and suspected covid-19 diagnoses, exemplar cardiovascular conditions (incident stroke or transient ischaemic attack and incident myocardial infarction) and all cause mortality between 1 January and 31 October 2020. Results The linked cohort includes more than 96% of the English population. By combining person level data across national healthcare settings, data on age, sex, and ethnicity are complete for around 95% of the population. Among 53.3 million people with no previous diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack, 98 721 had a first ever incident stroke or transient ischaemic attack between 1 January and 31 October 2020, of which 30% were recorded only in primary care and 4% only in death registry records. Among 53.2 million people with no previous diagnosis of myocardial infarction, 62 966 had an incident myocardial infarction during follow-up, of which 8% were recorded only in primary care and 12% only in death registry records. A total of 959 470 people had a confirmed or suspected covid-19 diagnosis (714 162 in primary care data, 126 349 in hospital admission records, 776 503 in covid-19 laboratory test data, and 50 504 in death registry records). Although 58% of these were recorded in both primary care and covid-19 laboratory test data, 15% and 18%, respectively, were recorded in only one. Conclusions This population-wide resource shows the importance of linking person level data across health settings to maximise completeness of key characteristics and to ascertain cardiovascular events and covid-19 diagnoses. Although this resource was initially established to support research on covid-19 and cardiovascular disease to benefit clinical care and public health and to inform healthcare policy, it can broaden further to enable a wide range of research.

The impact of COVID-19 on adjusted mortality risk in care homes for older adults in Wales, UK: a retrospective population-based cohort study for mortality in 2016–2020

Abstract: Background Mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages, and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim To analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4-years. Study design and setting We used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods We calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted hazard ratios for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results Survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1·72 (1·55, 1·90) compared to 2016. Compared to the general population in 2016-2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2·15 (2·11,2·20) in 2016-2019 to 2·94 (2·81,3·08) in 2020. Conclusions The survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

Abstract: Background The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. Methods Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5–5.9]; P Conclusions The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Epilepsy, antiepileptic drugs, and the risk of major cardiovascular events

Abstract: OBJECTIVE This study was undertaken to determine whether epilepsy and antiepileptic drugs (including enzyme-inducing and non-enzyme-inducing drugs) are associated with major cardiovascular events using population-level, routinely collected data. METHODS Using anonymized, routinely collected, health care data in Wales, UK, we performed a retrospective matched cohort study (2003-2017) of adults with epilepsy prescribed an antiepileptic drug. Controls were matched with replacement on age, gender, deprivation quintile, and year of entry into the study. Participants were followed to the end of the study for the occurrence of a major cardiovascular event, and survival models were constructed to compare the time to a major cardiovascular event (cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease, clinically significant arrhythmia, thromboembolism, onset of heart failure, or a cardiovascular death) for individuals in the case group versus the control group. RESULTS There were 10 241 cases (mean age = 49.6 years, 52.2% male, mean follow-up = 6.1 years) matched to 35 145 controls. A total of 3180 (31.1%) cases received enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs, and 7061 (68.9%) received non-enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs. Cases had an increased risk of experiencing a major cardiovascular event compared to controls (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.63, p < .001). There was no notable difference in major cardiovascular events between those treated with enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs and those treated with non-enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs (adjusted hazard ratio = .95, 95% CI = .86-1.05, p = .300). SIGNIFICANCE Individuals with epilepsy prescribed antiepileptic drugs are at an increased risk of major cardiovascular events compared with population controls. Being prescribed an enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drug is not associated with a greater risk of a major cardiovascular event compared to treatment with other antiepileptic drugs. Our data emphasize the importance of cardiovascular risk management in the clinical care of people with epilepsy.

Deriving household composition using population-scale electronic health record data—A reproducible methodology

Abstract: BACKGROUND Physical housing and household composition have an important role in the lives of individuals and drive health and social outcomes, and inequalities. Most methods to understand housing composition are based on survey or census data, and there is currently no reproducible methodology for creating population-level household composition measures using linked administrative data. METHODS Using existing, and more recent enhancements to the address-data linkage methods in the SAIL Databank using Residential Anonymised Linking Fields we linked individuals to properties using the anonymised Welsh Demographic Service data in the SAIL Databank. We defined households, household size, and household composition measures based on adult to child relationships, and age differences between residents to create relative age measures. RESULTS Two relative age-based algorithms were developed and returned similar results when applied to population and household-level data, describing household composition for 3.1 million individuals within 1.2 million households in Wales. Developed methods describe binary, and count level generational household composition measures. CONCLUSIONS Improved residential anonymised linkage field methods in SAIL have led to improved property-level data linkage, allowing the design and application of household composition measures that assign individuals to shared residences and allow the description of household composition across Wales. The reproducible methods create longitudinal, household-level composition measures at a population-level using linked administrative data. Such measures are important to help understand more detail about an individual's home and area environment and how that may affect the health and wellbeing of the individual, other residents, and potentially into the wider community.

Achievement of European guideline-recommended lipid levels post-percutaneous coronary intervention: A population-level observational cohort study.

Abstract: AimsEuropean Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society 2019 guidelines recommend more aggressive lipid targets in high- and very high-risk patients and the addition of adjuvant treatme...

Frailty assessed by administrative tools and mortality in patients with pneumonia admitted to the hospital and ICU in Wales

Abstract: The ideal method of identifying frailty is uncertain, and data on long-term outcomes is relatively limited. We examined frailty indices derived from population-scale linked data on Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and hospitalised non-ICU patients with pneumonia to elucidate the influence of frailty on mortality. Longitudinal cohort study between 2010-2018 using population-scale anonymised data linkage of healthcare records for adults admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Wales. Primary outcome was in-patient mortality. Odds Ratios (ORs [95% confidence interval]) for age, hospital frailty risk score (HFRS), electronic frailty index (eFI), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and social deprivation index were estimated using multivariate logistic regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated to determine the best fitting models. Of the 107,188 patients, mean (SD) age was 72.6 (16.6) years, 50% were men. The models adjusted for the two frailty indices and the comorbidity index had an increased odds of in-patient mortality for individuals with an ICU admission (ORs for ICU admission in the eFI model 2.67 [2.55, 2.79], HFRS model 2.30 [2.20, 2.41], CCI model 2.62 [2.51, 2.75]). Models indicated advancing age, increased frailty and comorbidity were also associated with an increased odds of in-patient mortality (eFI, baseline fit, ORs: mild 1.09 [1.04, 1.13], moderate 1.13 [1.08, 1.18], severe 1.17 [1.10, 1.23]. HFRS, baseline low, ORs: intermediate 2.65 [2.55, 2.75], high 3.31 [3.17, 3.45]). CCI, baseline 10 2.50 [2.41, 2.60]). For predicting inpatient deaths, the CCI and HFRS based models were similar, however for longer term outcomes the CCI based model was superior. Frailty and comorbidity are significant risk factors for patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia. Frailty and comorbidity scores based on administrative data have only moderate ability to predict outcome.

Association of COVID-19 with arterial and venous vascular diseases: a population-wide cohort study of 48 million adults in England and Wales

Abstract: ImportanceThe long-term effects of COVID-19 on the incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. ObjectiveTo quantify the association between time since diagnosis of COVID-19 and vascular disease, overall and by age, sex, ethnicity, and pre-existing disease. DesignCohort study based on population-wide linked electronic health records, with follow up from January 1st to December 7th 2020. Setting and participantsAdults registered with an NHS general practice in England or Wales and alive on January 1st 2020. ExposuresTime since diagnosis of COVID-19 (categorised as 0-6 days, 1-2 weeks, 3-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-26 and 27-49 weeks since diagnosis), with and without hospitalisation within 28 days of diagnosis. Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were arterial thromboses (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) and venous thromboembolic events (VTE, mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep vein thrombosis). We also studied other vascular events (transient ischaemic attack, haemorrhagic stroke, heart failure and angina). Hazard ratios were adjusted for demographic characteristics, previous disease diagnoses, comorbidities and medications. ResultsAmong 48 million adults, 130,930 were and 1,315,471 were not hospitalised within 28 days of COVID-19. In England, there were 259,742 first arterial thromboses and 60,066 first VTE during 41.6 million person-years follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for first arterial thrombosis compared with no COVID-19 declined rapidly from 21.7 (95% CI 21.0-22.4) to 3.87 (3.58-4.19) in weeks 1 and 2 after COVID-19, 2.80 (2.61-3.01) during weeks 3-4 then to 1.34 (1.21-1.48) during weeks 27-49. aHRs for first VTE declined from 33.2 (31.3-35.2) and 8.52 (7.59-9.58) in weeks 1 and 2 to 7.95 (7.28-8.68) and 4.26 (3.86-4.69) during weeks 3-4 and 5-8, then 2.20 (1.99-2.44) and 1.80 (1.50-2.17) during weeks 13-26 and 27-49 respectively. aHRs were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19. aHRs were also higher among people of Black and Asian than White ethnicity and among people without than with a previous event. Across the whole population estimated increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs were 2.5% and 0.6% respectively 49 weeks after COVID-19, corresponding to 7,197 and 3,517 additional events respectively after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. Conclusions and RelevanceHigh rates of vascular disease early after COVID-19 diagnosis decline more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs but rates remain elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID_19. These results support continued policies to avoid COVID-19 infection with effective COVID-19 vaccines and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients. Key pointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSIs COVID-19 associated with higher long-term incidence of vascular diseases? FindingsIn this cohort study of 48 million adults in England and Wales, COVID-19 was associated with higher incidence, that declined with time since diagnosis, of both arterial thromboses [week 1: adjusted HR [aHR] 21.7 (95% CI 21.0-22.4) weeks 27-49: aHR 1.34 (1.21-1.48)] and venous thromboembolism [week 1: aHR 33.2 (31.3-35.2), weeks 27-49 1.80 (1.50-2.17)]. aHRs were higher, for longer, after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19. The estimated excess number of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolisms was 10,500. MeaningAvoidance of COVID-19 infection through vaccination, and use of secondary preventive agents after infection in high-risk patients, may reduce post-COVID-19 acute vascular diseases.

Healthcare presentations with self-harm and the association with COVID-19: an e-cohort whole-population-based study using individual-level linked routine electronic health records in Wales, UK, 2016 - March 2021

Abstract: Background Multi-setting population-based studies on healthcare service presentations with self-harm covering the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic are yet to be published. Aims Ascertain changes across settings in healthcare service presentations with self-harm during Waves 1 and 2 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method E-cohort study using individual-level linked routine healthcare data from Wales, UK, 2016-March 2021. We measured weekly proportion of self-harm contacts and people who self-harmed in contact with general practice (GP), emergency department (ED) and hospital admissions. We modelled weekly trends using linear regression and generalised estimated equations, quantifying time differences using difference-in-difference (DiD). Results We included 3,552,210 Welsh residents aged ≥10 years. Counts of self-harm presentations across settings was at a minimum at the start of stay-at-home restrictions during both waves and recovered compared to previous years in 3-5 months. Those who self-harmed in April 2020 were more likely to be seen in GP compared to other settings and previous years – mean rate of OR=1.2, although actual numbers fell. The proportion of self-harm ED contacts admitted to hospital dropped from June 2020 (1.9 [1.5-2.3] pp/month). Self-harm and COVID-19 infection had a bidirectional effect – self-harm history had OR=1.4 [1.2-1.6] and incidence had DiD=1.1 [0.8-1.4]. Conclusions Those that self-harmed and sought help during the COVID-19 pandemic potentially encountered stringent criteria for hospitalisation, particularly in Wave 2, while in Wave 1 they preferentially presented to GP. Reductions in contacts likely resulted in unmet healthcare needs which may later emerge placing further burden on individuals and healthcare services. Relevance statement This study provides novel findings on how the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to curb its spread affected self-harm healthcare service presentations. To our knowledge no other population-based studies in the UK have linked routinely collected general practice (GP), emergency department (ED) and hospital admission data covering Waves 1 and 2 of the pandemic. Reductions in presentations with self-harm during the pandemic may be the result of those not requiring ED care or hospitalisation avoiding seeking help during the pandemic as often as before. Those that did seek help potentially encountered more stringent criteria for hospitalisation, particularly during Wave 2. This likely resulted in unmet healthcare needs which may later emerge placing further burden on individuals and healthcare services. Measures should be put in place to ensure that those who self-harm receive appropriate assessment and intervention.

Making the Most of Big Data in Plastic Surgery: Improving Outcomes, Protecting Patients, Informing Service Providers.

Abstract: In medicine, "big data" refers to the interdisciplinary analysis of high-volume, diverse clinical and lifestyle information on large patient populations. Recent advancements in data storage and electronic record keeping have enabled the expansion of research in this field. In the United Kingdom, Big data has been highlighted as one of the government's "8 Great Technologies," and the Medical Research Council has invested more than £100 million since 2012 in developing the Health Data Research UK infrastructure. The recent Royal College of Surgeons Commission of the Future of Surgery concluded that analysis of big data is one of the 4 most likely avenues to bring some of the most innovative changes to surgical practice in the 21st century.In this article, we provide an overview of the nascent field of big data analytics in plastic and highlight how it has the potential to improve outcomes, increase safety, and aid service planning.We outline the current resources available, the emerging role of big data within the subspecialties of burns, microsurgery, skin and breast cancer, and how these data can be used. We critically review the limitations and considerations raised with big data, offer suggestions regarding database optimization, and suggest future directions for research in this exciting field.

Impact of the national home safety equipment scheme 'Safe At Home' on hospital admissions for unintentional injury in children under 5: a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Abstract: Background Unintentional home injuries are a leading cause of preventable death in young children. Safety education and equipment provision improve home safety practices, but their impact on injuries is less clear. Between 2009 and 2011, a national home safety equipment scheme was implemented in England (Safe At Home), targeting high-injury-rate areas and socioeconomically disadvantaged families with children under 5. This provided a ‘natural experiment’ for evaluating the scheme’s impact on hospital admissions for unintentional injuries. Methods Controlled interrupted time series analysis of unintentional injury hospital admission rates in small areas (Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs)) in England where the scheme was implemented (intervention areas, n=9466) and matched with LSOAs in England and Wales where it was not implemented (control areas, n=9466), with subgroup analyses by density of equipment provision. Results 57 656 homes receiving safety equipment were included in the analysis. In the 2 years after the scheme ended, monthly admission rates declined in intervention areas (−0.33% (−0.47% to −0.18%)) but did not decline in control areas (0.04% (−0.11%–0.19%), p value for difference in trend=0.001). Greater reductions in admission rates were seen as equipment provision density increased. Effects were not maintained beyond 2 years after the scheme ended. Conclusions A national home safety equipment scheme was associated with a reduction in injury-related hospital admissions in children under 5 in the 2 years after the scheme ended. Providing a higher number of items of safety equipment appears to be more effective in reducing injury rates than providing fewer items.

Factors affecting the choice of first-line therapy in Parkinson’s disease patients in Wales: A population-based study

Abstract: First line treatment for Parkinson’s disease (PD) is typically either L-dopa or a non-ergot dopamine agonist (DA). However, the options for the treatment of motor symptoms in PD patients have increased in the last thirty years, which have seen several new classes of PD medications introduced onto the market. The purpose of this study is to examine the changes in first line therapy of newly diagnosed Parkinson’s patients between 2000 and 2016 in Wales. A population-based study evaluated data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank of residents in Wales, aged 40 years or older, newly treated with PD medications between 2000 and 2016. The data was compared across three intervals: 2000–2005, 2006–2011 and 2012–2016. Patients were classified by age at diagnosis into young: 40–60 years; mid, 61–80 years; and older >80 years. Logistic regression was undertaken to determine the predictors of PD medication prescribing. For the whole study period, the profiles of 9142 newly diagnosed PD patients were analysed. L-dopa was the most common first line therapy (80.6%), followed by non-ergot DAs (12.9%) and monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) inhibitors (7.9%). Odds of L-dopa prescribing were greater in patients >80 years (OR = 20.46 95%CI: 16.25–25.76) and in the period 2012–2016 (OR = 1.98 95% CI: 1.70–2.29). Prescribing of non-ergot DAs significantly declined in 2012–2016 (OR = 0.42 95% CI: 0.35–0.49). Additional factors influencing first line therapy were deprivation, presence of diabetes and prior use of antidepressants. For example, PD patients residing in the least deprived area were less likely to be prescribed L-dopa compared to patients residing in the most deprived area (OR = 0.77 95% CI: 0.65–0.93). First line therapy in PD in Wales has undergone a significant switch towards L-dopa over the last 16 years. The data indicates reasonable compliance with guidelines on efficacy and safety issues related to Parkinson’s medications.

Staff-pupil SARS-CoV-2 infection pathways in schools in Wales: A population-level linked data approach

Abstract: Background Better understanding of the role that children and school staff play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to guide policy development on controlling infection while minimising disruption to children’s education and well-being. Methods Our national e-cohort (n=464531) study used anonymised linked data for pupils, staff and associated households linked via educational settings in Wales. We estimated the odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection for staff and pupils over the period August– December 2020, dependent on measures of recent exposure to known cases linked to their educational settings. Results The total number of cases in a school was not associated with a subsequent increase in the odds of testing positive (staff OR per case: 0.92, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.00; pupil OR per case: 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.02). Among pupils, the number of recent cases within the same year group was significantly associated with subsequent increased odds of testing positive (OR per case: 1.12, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.15). These effects were adjusted for a range of demographic covariates, and in particular any known cases within the same household, which had the strongest association with testing positive (staff OR: 39.86, 95% CI 35.01 to 45.38; pupil OR: 9.39, 95% CI 8.94 to 9.88). Conclusions In a national school cohort, the odds of staff testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were not significantly increased in the 14-day period after case detection in the school. However, pupils were found to be at increased odds, following cases appearing within their own year group, where most of their contacts occur. Strong mitigation measures over the whole of the study period may have reduced wider spread within the school environment.

Protocol for the development of the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC): data sources and methods to construct a population-based research platform to investigate multimorbidity.

Abstract: Introduction Multimorbidity is widely recognised as the presence of two or more concurrent long-term conditions, yet remains a poorly understood global issue despite increasing in prevalence. We have created the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC) to provide an accessible research ready data asset to further the understanding of multimorbidity. Our objectives are to create a platform to support research which would help to understand prevalence, trajectories and determinants in multimorbidity, characterise clusters that lead to highest burden on individuals and healthcare services, and evaluate and provide new multimorbidity phenotypes and algorithms to the National Health Service and research communities to support prevention, healthcare planning and the management of individuals with multimorbidity. Methods and analysis The WMC has been created and derived from multisourced demographic, administrative and electronic health record data relating to the Welsh population in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The WMC consists of 2.9 million people alive and living in Wales on the 1 January 2000 with follow-up until 31 December 2019, Welsh residency break or death. Published comorbidity indices and phenotype code lists will be used to measure and conceptualise multimorbidity. Study outcomes will include: (1) a description of multimorbidity using published data phenotype algorithms/ontologies, (2) investigation of the associations between baseline demographic factors and multimorbidity, (3) identification of temporal trajectories of clusters of conditions and multimorbidity and (4) investigation of multimorbidity clusters with poor outcomes such as mortality and high healthcare service utilisation. Ethics and dissemination The SAIL Databank independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study (SAIL Project: 0911). Study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Long-term trends in critical care admissions in Wales*.

Abstract: As national populations age, demands on critical care services are expected to increase. In many healthcare settings, longitudinal trends indicate rising numbers and proportions of patients admitted to ICU who are older; elsewhere, including some parts of the UK, a decrease has raised concerns with regard to rationing according to age. Our aim was to investigate admission trends in Wales, where critical care capacity has not risen in the last decade. We used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank to identify and characterise critical care admissions in patients aged ≥ 18 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. We categorised 85,629 ICU admissions as youngest (18–64 years), older (65–79 years) and oldest (≥ 80 years). The oldest group accounted for 15% of admissions, the older age group 39% and the youngest group 46%. Relative to the national population, the incidence of admission rates per 10,000 population in the oldest group decreased significantly over the study period from 91.5/10,000 in 2008 to 77.5/10,000 (a relative decrease of 15%), and among the older group from 89.2/10,000 in 2008 to 75.3/10,000 in 2017 (a relative decrease of 16%). We observed significant decreases in admissions with high comorbidity (modified Charlson comorbidity index); increases in the proportion of older patients admitted who were considered ‘fit’ rather than frail (electronic frailty index); and decreases in admissions with a medical diagnosis. In contrast to other healthcare settings, capacity constraints and surgical imperatives appear to have contributed to a relative exclusion of older patients presenting with acute medical illness.

A retrospective epidemiological study of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Wales, UK between 2008 and 2018

Abstract: IntroductionStudies of prevalence and the demographic profile of type 1 diabetes are challenging because of the relative rarity of the condition, however, these outcomes can be determined using routine healthcare data repositories. Understanding the epidemiology of type 1 diabetes allows for targeted interventions and care of this life-affecting condition. ObjectivesTo describe the prevalence, incidence and demographics of persons with type 1 diabetes diagnosed in Wales, UK, using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. MethodsData derived from primary and secondary care throughout Wales available in the SAIL Databank were used to identify people with type 1 diabetes to determine the prevalence and incidence of type 1 diabetes over a 10 year period (2008–18) and describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of this population by age, socioeconomic deprivation and settlement type. The seasonal variation in incidence rates was also examined. ResultsThe prevalence of type 1 diabetes in 2018 was 0.32% in the whole population, being greater in men compared to women (0.35% vs 0.28% respectively); highest in those aged 15-29 years (0.52%) and living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas (0.38%). The incidence of type 1 diabetes over 10 years was 14.0 cases/100,000 people/year for the whole population of Wales. It was highest in children aged 0-14 years (33.6 cases/100,000 people/year) and areas of high socioeconomic deprivation (16.8 cases/100,000 people/year) and least in those aged 45-60 years (6.5 cases/100,000 people/year) and in areas of low socioeconomic deprivation (11.63 cases/100,000 people/year). A seasonal trend in the diagnoses of type 1 diabetes was observed with higher incidence in winter months. ConclusionThis nation-wide retrospective epidemiological study using routine data revealed that the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Wales was greatest in those aged 0-14 years with a higher incidence and prevalence in the most deprived areas. These findings illustrate the need for health-related policies targeted at high deprivation areas to include type 1 diabetes in their remit.

Socio-economic predictors of time to care home admission in people living with dementia in Wales: A routine data linkage study.

Abstract: Objectives Limited research has shown that people with dementia (PwD) from lower socio-economic backgrounds can face difficulties in accessing the right care at the right time. This study examined whether socio-economic status (SES) and rural versus urban living location are associated with the time between diagnosis and care home admission in PwD living in Wales, UK. Methods/design This study linked routine health data and an e-cohort of PwD who have been admitted into a care home between 2000 and 2018 living in Wales. Survival analysis explored the effects of SES, living location, living situation, and frailty on the time between diagnosis and care home admission. Results In 34,514 PwD, the average time between diagnosis and care home admission was 1.5 (±1.4) years. Cox regression analysis showed that increased age, living alone, frailty, and living in less disadvantaged neighbourhoods were associated with faster rate to care home admission. Living in rural regions predicted a slower rate until care home admission. Conclusions This is one of the first studies to show a link between socio-economic factors on time to care home admission in dementia. Future research needs to address variations in care needs between PwD from different socio-economic and geographical backgrounds.

COVID-19 infection risk amongst 14,104 vaccinated care home residents: a national observational longitudinal cohort study in Wales, UK, December 2020-March 2021.

Abstract: Background vaccinations for COVID-19 have been prioritised for older people living in care homes. However, vaccination trials included limited numbers of older people. Aim we aimed to study infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 for older care home residents following vaccination and identify factors associated with increased risk of infection. Study design and setting we conducted an observational data-linkage study including 14,104 vaccinated older care home residents in Wales (UK) using anonymised electronic health records and administrative data. Methods we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination, after landmark times of either 7 or 21 days post-vaccination. We adjusted HRs for age, sex, frailty, prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccination type. Results we observed a small proportion of care home residents with positive polymerase chain reaction (tests following vaccination 1.05% (N = 148), with 90% of infections occurring within 28 days. For the 7-day landmark analysis we found a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for vaccinated individuals who had a previous infection; HR (95% confidence interval) 0.54 (0.30, 0.95). For the 21-day landmark analysis, we observed high HRs for individuals with low and intermediate frailty compared with those without; 4.59 (1.23, 17.12) and 4.85 (1.68, 14.04), respectively. Conclusions increased risk of infection after 21 days was associated with frailty. We found most infections occurred within 28 days of vaccination, suggesting extra precautions to reduce transmission risk should be taken in this time frame.

Understanding COVID-19 trajectories from a nationwide linked electronic health record cohort of 56 million people: phenotypes, severity, waves & vaccination

Abstract: Background: Updatable understanding of the onset and progression of individuals COVID-19 trajectories underpins pandemic mitigation efforts. In order to identify and characterize individual trajectories, we defined and validated ten COVID-19 phenotypes from linked electronic health records (EHR) on a nationwide scale using an extensible framework. Methods: Cohort study of 56.6 million people in England alive on 23/01/2020, followed until 31/05/2021, using eight linked national datasets spanning COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary & secondary care and death registrations data. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity using a combination of international clinical terminologies (e.g. SNOMED-CT, ICD-10) and bespoke data fields; positive test, primary care diagnosis, hospitalisation, critical care (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). Using these phenotypes, we constructed patient trajectories illustrating the transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status. Findings: We identified 3,469,528 infected individuals (6.1%) with 8,825,738 recorded COVID-19 phenotypes. Of these, 364,260 (11%) were hospitalised and 140,908 (4%) died. Of those hospitalised, 38,072 (10%) were admitted to intensive care (ICU), 54,026 (15%) received non-invasive ventilation and 21,404 (6%) invasive ventilation. Amongst hospitalised patients, first wave mortality (30%) was higher than the second (23%) in non-ICU settings, but remained unchanged for ICU patients. The highest mortality was for patients receiving critical care outside of ICU in wave 1 (51%). 13,083 (9%) COVID-19 related deaths occurred without diagnoses on the death certificate, but within 30 days of a positive test while 10,403 (7%) of cases were identified from mortality data alone with no prior phenotypes recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in the second pandemic wave compared to the first. Interpretation: Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of severity that COVID-19 displays and significant differences in incidence, survival and pathways across pandemic waves. We provide an adaptable framework to answer questions of clinical and policy relevance; new variant impact, booster dose efficacy and a way of maximising existing data to understand individuals progression through disease states.

Characteristics of repeat non-attenders at Diabetes Eye Screening Wales, a national community-based diabetes-related retinopathy screening service, during 2003-2018.

Abstract: AIMS To understand factors associated with repeat non-attendance at screening for diabetes-related retinopathy METHODS Retrospective observational study using anonymised data from Diabetic Eye Screening Wales for people with a full history of screening invitations and attendances was linked with primary and secondary care records held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank Repeat non-attendance was defined as no record of attendance during any 36-month period despite three cycles of annual screening invitations The associations between repeat non-attendance and potential risk factors were examined using multivariable logistic regression analysis, stratified according to type 1 and type 2 diabetes RESULTS A total of 18% with type 1 diabetes (1146/6513) and 8% with type 2 diabetes (12,475/156,525) were repeat non-attenders Participants attending their very first appointment were least likely to become repeat non-attenders [odds ratio (95% confidence interval)]: type 1 diabetes: 012 (009, 017) and type 2 diabetes: 008 (007, 009) For both types of diabetes, those of a younger age, living in areas of higher deprivation and subject to multiple house moves were at greater risk of becoming repeat non-attenders CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION A more tailored approach is needed for the younger population, those living in areas of higher deprivation and/or undergoing multiple residential relocation and to ensure attendance at their initial appointment to minimise future repeat non-attendance

Protocol for a longitudinal mixed-methods study of psychosocial determinants of health behaviour, health and well-being outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: The UK COVID-19 Public Experiences (COPE) Study

Abstract: This protocol describes a mixed-methods longitudinal study which aims to build a detailed understanding of how people experience and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy during the first 12-months since the start of the UK outbreak. The study will comprise of three work packages: a longitudinal prospective online survey, data linkage, and qualitative interviews.

Association of COVID-19 vaccines ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 with major venous, arterial, and thrombocytopenic events: whole population cohort study in 46 million adults in England

Abstract: ImportanceThromboses after the COVID-19 vaccine ChAdOx1-S have been reported. Better understanding of population-level thrombotic risks after COVID-19 vaccination is needed. ObjectiveQuantify associations of vaccination with ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2 with major arterial, venous and thrombocytopenic events. DesignCohort study based on linked electronic health records, with follow up from December 8th, 2020, to March 18th, 2021. Setting and participantsAdults registered with an NHS general practice in England and alive on December 8th, 2020. ExposuresFirst dose of vaccination with ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2. Main Outcomes and MeasuresIncidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for major arterial, venous and thrombocytopenic outcomes 1-28 and >28 days after first vaccination with ChAdOx1-S or BNT162b2 vaccine. Analyses were performed separately for ages <70 and [≥]70 years, and adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and social and demographic factors. ResultsOf 46,162,942 adults, 21,193,814 (46%) had their first vaccination during follow-up. Adjusted HRs 1-28 days after ChAdOx1-S, compared with pre-vaccination rates, at ages <70 and [≥]70 respectively, were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.90-1.05) and 0.58 (0.53-0.63) for venous thromboses, and 0.90 (0.86-0.95) and 0.76 (0.73-0.79) for arterial thromboses. Corresponding HRs for BNT162b2 were 0.81 (0.74-0.88) and 0.57 (0.53-0.62) for venous thromboses, and 0.94 (0.90-0.99) and 0.72 (0.70-0.75) for arterial thromboses. HRs for thrombotic events were higher at younger ages for venous thromboses after ChAdOx1-S, and for arterial thromboses after both vaccines. Rates of intracranial venous thrombosis (ICVT) and thrombocytopenia in adults aged <70 years were higher 1-28 days after ChAdOx1-S (adjusted HRs 2.27, 95% CI:1.33- 3.88 and 1.71, 1.35-2.16 respectively), but not after BNT162b2 (0.59, 0.24-1.45 and 1.00, 0.75-1.34) compared with pre-vaccination. The corresponding absolute excess risks of ICVT 1-28 days after ChAdOx1-S were 0.9-3 per million, varying by age and sex. Conclusions and RelevanceIncreases in ICVT and thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1-S vaccination in adults aged <70 years are small compared with its effect in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, although more precise estimates for adults <40 years are needed. For people aged [≥]70 years, rates of arterial or venous thrombotic, events were generally lower after either vaccine.

Impact of a physician - critical care practitioner pre-hospital service in Wales on trauma survival: a retrospective analysis of linked registry data.

Abstract: The Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service for Wales launched in 2015. This service delivers senior pre-hospital doctors and advanced critical care practitioners to the scene of time-critical life- and limb-threatening incidents to provide advanced decision-making and pre-hospital clinical care. The impact of the service on 30-day mortality was evaluated retrospectively using a data linkage system. The study included patients who sustained moderate-to-severe blunt traumatic injuries (injury severity score ≥ 9) between 27 April 2015 and 30 November 2018. The association between pre-hospital management by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service and 30-day mortality was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. In total, data from 4035 patients were analysed, of which 412 (10%) were treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service. A greater proportion of patients treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service had an injury severity score ≥ 16 and Glasgow coma scale ≤ 12 (288 (70%) vs. 1435 (40%) and 126 (31%) vs. 325 (9%), respectively). The unadjusted 30-day mortality rate was 11.7% for patients managed by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service compared with 9.6% for patients managed by standard pre-hospital care services. However, after adjustment for differences in case-mix, the 30-day mortality rate for patients treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service was 37% lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.63 (95%CI 0.41-0.97); p = 0.037). The introduction of an emergency medical retrieval service was associated with a reduction in 30-day mortality for patients with blunt traumatic injury.