Showing papers in "Age and Ageing in 2021"

Prevalence of frailty in 62 countries across the world: a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-level studies

Abstract: INTRODUCTION The prevalence of frailty at population level is unclear. We examined this in population-based studies, investigating sources of heterogeneity. METHODS PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane Library databases were searched for observational population-level studies published between 1 January 1998 and 1 April 2020, including individuals aged ≥50 years, identified using any frailty measure. Prevalence estimates were extracted independently, assessed for bias and analysed using a random-effects model. RESULTS In total, 240 studies reporting 265 prevalence proportions from 62 countries and territories, representing 1,755,497 participants, were included. Pooled prevalence in studies using physical frailty measures was 12% (95% CI = 11-13%; n = 178), compared with 24% (95% CI = 22-26%; n = 71) for the deficit accumulation model (those using a frailty index, FI). For pre-frailty, this was 46% (95% CI = 45-48%; n = 147) and 49% (95% CI = 46-52%; n = 29), respectively. For physical frailty, the prevalence was higher among females, 15% (95% CI = 14-17%; n = 142), than males, 11% (95% CI = 10-12%; n = 144). For studies using a FI, the prevalence was also higher in females, 29% (95% CI = 24-35%; n = 34) versus 20% (95% CI = 16-24%; n = 34), for males. These values were similar for pre-frailty. Prevalence increased according to the minimum age at study inclusion. Analysing only data from nationally representative studies gave a frailty prevalence of 7% (95% CI = 5-9%; n = 46) for physical frailty and 24% (95% CI = 22-26%; n = 44) for FIs. CONCLUSIONS Population-level frailty prevalence varied by classification and sex. Data were heterogenous and limited, particularly from nationally representative studies making the interpretation of differences by geographic region challenging. Common methodological approaches to gathering data are required to improve the accuracy of population-level prevalence estimates. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO-CRD42018105431.

Efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in older people.

Abstract: Several vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are on the cusp of regulatory approval. Their safety and efficacy in older people is critical to their success. Even though care home residents and older people are likely to be amongst the first to be vaccinated, these patient groups are usually excluded from clinical trials. Data from several Phase II trials have given cause for optimism, with strong antibody responses and reassuring safety profiles but, with the exception of AstraZeneca's vaccine, recruited few older people. Overall, the sparse data from Phase II trials suggest a reduction in both antibody responses and mild to moderate adverse events in well older people compared to younger participants. Many of the Phase III trials have made a conscious effort to recruit older people, and interim analyses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine have led to press releases announcing high degrees of efficacy. However, older people with co-morbidities and frailty have once again been largely excluded and there are no published data on safety and efficacy in this group. Although the speed and impact of the pandemic on older people with frailty justify an approach where they are offered vaccination first, patients and their carers and supervising health care professionals alike will need to make a decision on accepting vaccination based on limited evidence. Here we review the main candidate vaccines that may become available, with a focus on the evidence of safety and efficacy in older people.

Age and frailty are independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality and increased care needs in survivors: results of an international multi-centre study

Abstract: Introduction Increased mortality has been demonstrated in older adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the effect of frailty has been unclear Methods This multi-centre cohort study involved patients aged 18 years and older hospitalised with COVID-19, using routinely collected data We used Cox regression analysis to assess the impact of age, frailty and delirium on the risk of inpatient mortality, adjusting for sex, illness severity, inflammation and co-morbidities We used ordinal logistic regression analysis to assess the impact of age, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and delirium on risk of increased care requirements on discharge, adjusting for the same variables Results Data from 5,711 patients from 55 hospitals in 12 countries were included (median age 74, interquartile range [IQR] 54-83; 552% male) The risk of death increased independently with increasing age (>80 versus 18-49: hazard ratio [HR] 357, confidence interval [CI] 254-502), frailty (CFS 8 versus 1-3: HR 303, CI 229-400) inflammation, renal disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer, but not delirium Age, frailty (CFS 7 versus 1-3: odds ratio 700, CI 527-932), delirium, dementia and mental health diagnoses were all associated with increased risk of higher care needs on discharge The likelihood of adverse outcomes increased across all grades of CFS from 4 to 9 Conclusion Age and frailty are independently associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19 Risk of increased care needs was also increased in survivors of COVID-19 with frailty or older age

Diagnostic accuracy of the 4AT for delirium detection in older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: OBJECTIVE Detection of delirium in hospitalised older adults is recommended in national and international guidelines. The 4 'A's Test (4AT) is a short (<2 minutes) instrument for delirium detection that is used internationally as a standard tool in clinical practice. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy of the 4AT for delirium detection. METHODS We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, clinicaltrials.gov and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, from 2011 (year of 4AT release on the website www.the4AT.com) until 21 December 2019. Inclusion criteria were: older adults (≥65 years); diagnostic accuracy study of the 4AT index test when compared to delirium reference standard (standard diagnostic criteria or validated tool). Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. Pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity were generated from a bivariate random effects model. RESULTS Seventeen studies (3,702 observations) were included. Settings were acute medicine, surgery, a care home and the emergency department. Three studies assessed performance of the 4AT in stroke. The overall prevalence of delirium was 24.2% (95% CI 17.8-32.1%; range 10.5-61.9%). The pooled sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.80-0.93) and the pooled specificity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.92). Excluding the stroke studies, the pooled sensitivity was 0.86 (95% CI 0.77-0.92) and the pooled specificity was 0.89 (95% CI 0.83-0.93). The methodological quality of studies varied but was moderate to good overall. CONCLUSIONS The 4AT shows good diagnostic test accuracy for delirium in the 17 available studies. These findings support its use in routine clinical practice in delirium detection. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42019133702.

Comparing associations between frailty and mortality in hospitalised older adults with or without COVID-19 infection: a retrospective observational study using electronic health records.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe outcomes in hospitalised older people with different levels of frailty and COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We undertook a single centre, retrospective cohort study examining COVID-19 related mortality using Electronic Health Records, for older people (65 and over) with frailty, hospitalised with or without COVID-19 infection. Baseline covariates included demographics, Early Warning Scores, Charlson Comorbidity Indices and frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale, CFS), linked to COVID-19 status. FINDINGS: We analysed outcomes on 1,071 patients with COVID-19 test results; 285 (27%) were positive for COVID-19.)The mean age at ED arrival was 79.7 and 49.4% were female. All-cause mortality (by 30 days) rose from 9% (not frail) through to 33% (severely frail) in the COVID negative cohort but was around 60% for all frailty categories in the COVID positive cohort. In adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio for death in those with COVID-19 compared to those without COVID-19 was 7.3, 95% CI: 3.00, 18.0) with age, comorbidities and illness severity making small additional contributions. INTERPRETATION: In this study frailty, measured using the Clinical Frailty Scale, appeared to make little incremental contribution to the hazard of dying in older people hospitalised with COVID-19 infection; illness severity and comorbidity had a modest association with the overall adjusted hazard of death, whereas confirmed COVID-19 infection dominated, with a seven-fold hazard for death.

Probable delirium is a presenting symptom of COVID-19 in frail, older adults: a cohort study of 322 hospitalised and 535 community-based older adults.

Abstract: Background Frailty, increased vulnerability to physiological stressors, is associated with adverse outcomes. COVID-19 exhibits a more severe disease course in older, comorbid adults. Awareness of atypical presentations is critical to facilitate early identification. Objective To assess how frailty affects presenting COVID-19 symptoms in older adults. Design Observational cohort study of hospitalised older patients and self-report data for community-based older adults. Setting Admissions to St Thomas' Hospital, London with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Community-based data for older adults using the COVID Symptom Study mobile application. Subjects Hospital cohort: patients aged 65 and over (n = 322); unscheduled hospital admission between 1 March 2020 and 5 May 2020; COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swab. Community-based cohort: participants aged 65 and over enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study (n = 535); reported test-positive for COVID-19 from 24 March (application launch) to 8 May 2020. Methods Multivariable logistic regression analysis performed on age-matched samples from hospital and community-based cohorts to ascertain association of frailty with symptoms of confirmed COVID-19. Results Hospital cohort: significantly higher prevalence of probable delirium in the frail sample, with no difference in fever or cough. Community-based cohort: significantly higher prevalence of possible delirium in frailer, older adults and fatigue and shortness of breath. Conclusions This is the first study demonstrating higher prevalence of probable delirium as a COVID-19 symptom in older adults with frailty compared to other older adults. This emphasises need for systematic frailty assessment and screening for delirium in acutely ill older patients in hospital and community settings. Clinicians should suspect COVID-19 in frail adults with delirium.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

Abstract: Background During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting. Objective The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. Methods This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)). Conclusions The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

STOPPFall(Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in older adults with high fall risk): a Delphi study by the EuGMS Task and Finish Group on Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Healthcare professionals are often reluctant to deprescribe fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRIDs). Lack of knowledge and skills form a significant barrier and furthermore, there is no consensus on which medications are considered as FRIDs despite several systematic reviews. To support clinicians in the management of FRIDs and to facilitate the deprescribing process, STOPPFall (Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in older adults with high fall risk) and a deprescribing tool were developed by a European expert group. METHODS: STOPPFall was created by two facilitators based on evidence from recent meta-analyses and national fall prevention guidelines in Europe. Twenty-four panellists chose their level of agreement on a Likert scale with the items in the STOPPFall in three Delphi panel rounds. A threshold of 70% was selected for consensus a priori. The panellists were asked whether some agents are more fall-risk-increasing than others within the same pharmacological class. In an additional questionnaire, panellists were asked in which cases deprescribing of FRIDs should be considered and how it should be performed. RESULTS: The panellists agreed on 14 medication classes to be included in the STOPPFall. They were mostly psychotropic medications. The panellists indicated 18 differences between pharmacological subclasses with regard to fall-risk-increasing properties. Practical deprescribing guidance was developed for STOPPFall medication classes. CONCLUSION: STOPPFall was created using an expert Delphi consensus process and combined with a practical deprescribing tool designed to optimise medication review. The effectiveness of these tools in falls prevention should be further evaluated in intervention studies.

Mild Cognitive Impairment: the Manchester consensus

Abstract: Given considerable variation in diagnostic and therapeutic practice, there is a need for national guidance on the use of neuroimaging, fluid biomarkers, cognitive testing, follow-up and diagnostic terminology in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). MCI is a heterogenous clinical syndrome reflecting a change in cognitive function and deficits on neuropsychological testing but relatively intact activities of daily living. MCI is a risk state for further cognitive and functional decline with 5–15% of people developing dementia per year. However, ~50% remain stable at 5 years and in a minority, symptoms resolve over time. There is considerable debate about whether MCI is a useful clinical diagnosis, or whether the use of the term prevents proper inquiry (by history, examination and investigations) into underlying causes of cognitive symptoms, which can include prodromal neurodegenerative disease, other physical or psychiatric illness, or combinations thereof. Cognitive testing, neuroimaging and fluid biomarkers can improve the sensitivity and specificity of aetiological diagnosis, with growing evidence that these may also help guide prognosis. Diagnostic criteria allow for a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease to be made where MCI is accompanied by appropriate biomarker changes, but in practice, such biomarkers are not available in routine clinical practice in the UK. This would change if disease-modifying therapies became available and required a definitive diagnosis but would present major challenges to the National Health Service and similar health systems. Significantly increased investment would be required in training, infrastructure and provision of fluid biomarkers and neuroimaging. Statistical techniques combining markers may provide greater sensitivity and specificity than any single disease marker but their practical usefulness will depend on large-scale studies to ensure ecological validity and that multiple measures, e.g. both cognitive tests and biomarkers, are widely available for clinical use. To perform such large studies, we must increase research participation amongst those with MCI.

Effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on disease recognition and utilisation of healthcare services in the older population in Germany: a cross-sectional study.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: There is little evidence about the utilization of healthcare services and disease recognition in the older population, which was urged to self-isolate during the COVID-19 lockdowns. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to describe the utilization of physician consultations, specialist referrals, hospital admissions, and the recognition of incident diseases in Germany for this age group during the COVID-19 lockdown. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: 1,095 general practitioners' (GPs) and 960 specialist practices in Germany. SUBJECTS: 2.45 million older patients aged 65 or older. METHODS: The number of documented physician consultations, specialist referrals, hospital admissions, and incident diagnoses during the imposed lockdown in 2020 was descriptively analyzed and compared to 2019. RESULTS: Physician consultations decrease slightly in February (-2%), increase before the imposed lockdown in March (+9%), and decline in April (-18%) and May (-14%) 2020 compared to the same periods in 2019. Volumes of hospital admissions decrease earlier and more intensely than physician consultations (-39% vs. -6% respectively). Overall, 15%, 16%, and 18% fewer incident diagnoses were documented by GPs, neurologists, and diabetologists respectively in 2020. Diabetes, dementia, depression, cancer, and stroke were diagnosed less frequently during the lockdown (-17% to -26%), meaning that the decrease in the recognition of diseases was greater than the decrease in physician consultations. CONCLUSION: The data suggest that organizational changes were adopted quickly by practice management, but also raise concerns about the maintenance of routine care. Prospective studies should evaluate the long-term effects of lockdowns on patient-related outcomes.

Clinical profile and predictors of in-hospital mortality among older patients admitted for COVID-19.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by poor outcomes and mortality, particularly in older patients. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of the international, multicentre, "real-world" HOPE COVID-19 registry. All patients aged ≥65 years hospitalised for COVID-19 were selected. Epidemiological, clinical, analytical and outcome data were obtained. A comparative study between two age subgroups, 65-74 and ≥75 years, was performed. The primary endpoint was all cause in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 1,520 patients aged ≥65 years (60.3% male, median age of 76 [IQR 71-83] years) were included. Comorbidities such as hypertension (69.2%), dyslipidemia (48.6%), cardiovascular diseases (any chronic heart disease in 38.4% and cerebrovascular disease in 12.5%), and chronic lung disease (25.3%) were prevalent, and 49.6% were on ACEI/ARBs. Patients aged 75 years and older suffered more in-hospital complications (respiratory failure, heart failure, renal failure, sepsis) and a significantly higher mortality (18.4 vs. 48.2%, P 1 (OR 8.31) to be independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients aged ≥65 years hospitalised for COVID-19 had high rates of in-hospital complications and mortality, especially among patients 75 years or older. Age ≥75 years, dementia, peripheral oxygen saturation 1 were independent predictors of mortality in this population.

A classification tree to assist with routine scoring of the Clinical Frailty Scale.

Abstract: Background the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was originally developed to summarise a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment and yield a care plan. Especially since COVID-19, the CFS is being used widely by health care professionals without training in frailty care as a resource allocation tool and for care rationing. CFS scoring by inexperienced raters might not always reflect expert judgement. For these raters, we developed a new classification tree to assist with routine CFS scoring. Here, we test that tree against clinical scoring. Objective/methods we examined agreement between the CFS classification tree and CFS scoring by novice raters (clerks/residents), and the CFS classification tree and CFS scoring by experienced raters (geriatricians) in 115 older adults (mean age 78.0 ± 7.3; 47% females) from a single centre. Results the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the CFS classification tree was 0.833 (95% CI: 0.768-0.882) when compared with the geriatricians' CFS scoring. In 93%, the classification tree rating was the same or differed by at most one level with the expert geriatrician ratings. The ICC was 0.805 (0.685-0.883) when CFS scores from the classification tree were compared with the clerk/resident scores; 88.5% of the ratings were the same or ±1 level. Conclusions a classification tree for scoring the CFS can help with reliable scoring by relatively inexperienced raters. Though an incomplete remedy, a classification tree is a useful support to decision-making and could be used to aid routine scoring of the CFS.

The impact of COVID-19 on adjusted mortality risk in care homes for older adults in Wales, UK: a retrospective population-based cohort study for mortality in 2016–2020

Abstract: Background Mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages, and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim To analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4-years. Study design and setting We used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods We calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted hazard ratios for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results Survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1·72 (1·55, 1·90) compared to 2016. Compared to the general population in 2016-2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2·15 (2·11,2·20) in 2016-2019 to 2·94 (2·81,3·08) in 2020. Conclusions The survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.

Prevalence, incidence and mortality of delirium in patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Attention should be paid to delirium in COVID-19 patients, especially older people, since advanced age poses increased risk of both delirium and COVID-19-related death. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to summarize the evidence on prevalence, incidence and mortality of delirium in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive literature search on Pubmed and Embase from inception to December 1, 2020. Three independent reviewers evaluated study eligibility and data extraction, and assessed study quality. Outcomes were analyzed as proportions with 95% confidence interval (CI). We also compared mortality differences in COVID-19 patients using odds ratio. RESULTS: In total, we identified 48 studies with 11,553 COVID-19 patients from 13 countries. Pooled prevalence, incidence and mortality rates for delirium in COVID-19 patients were 24.3% (95% CI: 19.4-29.6%), 32.4% (95% CI: 20.8-45.2%) and 44.5% (95% CI: 36.1-53.0%), respectively. For patients aged over 65 yrs, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates for delirium in COVID-19 patients were 28.2% (95% CI: 23.5-33.1%), 25.2% (95% CI: 16.0-35.6%) and 48.4% (95% CI: 40.6-56.1%), respectively. For patients under 65 yrs, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates for delirium in COVID-19 patients were 15.7% (95% CI: 9.2-23.6%), 71.4% (95% CI: 58.5-82.7%) and 21.2% (95% CI: 15.4-27.6%), respectively. Overall, COVID-19 patients with delirium suffered higher risk of mortality, compared to those without delirium (OR: 3.2, 95% CI: 2.1-4.8). CONCLUSION: Delirium developed in almost 1 out of 3 COVID-19 patients, and was associated with 3-fold overall mortality. Our findings suggest that first-line healthcare providers should systematically assess delirium and monitor related symptoms among COVID-19 patients.

Life in lockdown: A telephone survey to investigate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the lives of older people (≥ 75 years).

Abstract: Background In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the UK government introduced social distancing measures and identified specific populations at high risk from the virus. People ≥70 were deemed ‘Clinically Vulnerable’. Distancing measures were introduced to reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19. However, these may have a negative impact on older people who are vulnerable to social isolation and may have challenges accessing services and provisions. Objectives To investigate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the lives of older people. Study design and setting Cross-sectional telephone survey. Participants Community-dwelling older people, 76–97 years. Outcomes Health anxiety; General health (RAND Short-form 36 Survey); Physical activity; Depression (PHQ-8); Anxiety (GAD-2); Loneliness; Access to services; Challenges, concerns and positive experiences. Data analysis Counts (%), means (SDs). Thematic analysis was used to identify themes from open questions. Results n = 142. 52% did not worry about their health; 76% rated their health as ‘good’, ‘very good’ or ‘excellent’; <10% met the criteria indicative of depression (PHQ-8), or anxiety (GAD-2); 42% were less active than before lockdown; and 27% were lonely at least some of the time. Over half of participants identified positive aspects. Conclusions Most participants reported good health with low levels of health anxiety, anxiety and depression. Many were able to identify positive aspects to lockdown and may be better equipped to deal with lockdown than anticipated. Strategies may be required to ameliorate the negative impact of loneliness for a minority of older people, and help some resume previous activity levels and pursuits.

COVID-19 infection and attributable mortality in UK care homes: Cohort study using active surveillance and electronic records (March-June 2020).

Abstract: BACKGROUND: epidemiological data on COVID-19 infection in care homes are scarce. We analysed data from a large provider of long-term care for older people to investigate infection and mortality during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: cohort study of 179 UK care homes with 9,339 residents and 11,604 staff. We used manager-reported daily tallies to estimate the incidence of suspected and confirmed infection and mortality in staff and residents. Individual-level electronic health records from 8,713 residents were used to model risk factors for confirmed infection, mortality and estimate attributable mortality. RESULTS: 2,075/9,339 residents developed COVID-19 symptoms (22.2% [95% confidence interval: 21.4%; 23.1%]), while 951 residents (10.2% [9.6%; 10.8%]) and 585 staff (5.0% [4.7%; 5.5%]) had laboratory-confirmed infections. The incidence of confirmed infection was 152.6 [143.1; 162.6] and 62.3 [57.3; 67.5] per 100,000 person-days in residents and staff, respectively. Sixty-eight percent (121/179) of care homes had at least one COVID-19 infection or COVID-19-related death. Lower staffing ratios and higher occupancy rates were independent risk factors for infection.Out of 607 residents with confirmed infection, 217 died (case fatality rate: 35.7% [31.9%; 39.7%]). Mortality in residents with no direct evidence of infection was twofold higher in care homes with outbreaks versus those without (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2 [1.8; 2.6]). CONCLUSIONS: findings suggest many deaths occurred in people who were infected with COVID-19, but not tested. Higher occupancy and lower staffing levels were independently associated with risks of infection. Protecting staff and residents from infection requires regular testing for COVID-19 and fundamental changes to staffing and care home occupancy.

Rationing care by frailty during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is disproportionately affecting older people and those with underlying comorbidities. Guidelines are needed to help clinicians make decisions regarding appropriate use of limited NHS critical care resources. In response to the pandemic, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence published guidance that employs the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in a decision-making flowchart to assist clinicians in assessing older individuals' suitability for critical care. This commentary raises some important limitations to this use of the CFS and cautions against the potential for unintended impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has allowed the widespread implementation of the CFS with limited training or expert oversight. The CFS is primarily being used to assess older individuals' risk of adverse outcome in critical care, and to ration access to care on this basis. While some form of resource allocation strategy is necessary for emergencies, the implementation of this guideline in the absence of significant pressure on resources may reduce the likelihood of older people with frailty, who wish to be considered for critical care, being appropriately considered, and has the potential to reinforce the socio-economic gradient in health. Our incomplete understanding of this novel disease means that there is a need for research investigating the short-term predictive abilities of the CFS on critical care outcomes in COVID-19. Additionally, a review of the impact of stratifying older people by CFS score, as a rationing strategy is necessary in order to assess its acceptability to older people as well its potential for disparate impacts.

'Getting back to normality seems as big of a step as going into lockdown': the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with early to middle stage dementia.

Abstract: People with dementia can experience a shrinkage of their social worlds, leading to a loss of independence, control, and reduced wellbeing. We used "the shrinking world" theory to examine how the COVID 19 pandemic has impacted the lives of people with early-middle stage dementia and what longer-term impacts may result. Interviews were conducted with 19 people with dementia and a thematic analysis generated five themes: The forgotten person with dementia; Confusion over government guidance; Deterioration of cognitive function; Loss of meaning and social isolation; Safety of the lockdown bubble. The findings suggest that the pandemic has accelerated the "shrinking world" effect and created a tension in how people with dementia perceive the outside world. Participants felt safe and secure in lockdown but also missed the social interaction, cognitive stimulation, and meaningful activities that took place outdoors. As time in lockdown continued, these individuals experienced a loss of confidence and were anxious about their ability to re-engage in the everyday practices that allow them to participate in society. We recommend ways in which the government, communities, and organisations might counteract some of the harms posed by this shrinking world.

Recurrent delirium over 12 months predicts dementia: results of the Delirium and Cognitive Impact in Dementia (DECIDE) study.

Abstract: Background: Delirium is common, distressing and associated with poor outcomes. Previous studies investigating the impact of delirium on cognitive outcomes have been limited by incomplete ascertainment of baseline cognition or lack of prospective delirium assessments. This study quantified the association between delirium and cognitive function over time by prospectively ascertaining delirium in a cohort aged ≥ 65 years in whom baseline cognition had previously been established. Methods: For 12 months, we assessed participants from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II-Newcastle for delirium daily during hospital admissions. At 1-year, we assessed cognitive decline and dementia in those with and without delirium. We evaluated the effect of delirium (including its duration and number of episodes) on cognitive function over time, independently of baseline cognition and illness severity. Results: Eighty two of 205 participants recruited developed delirium in hospital (40%). One-year outcome data were available for 173 participants: 18 had a new dementia diagnosis, 38 had died. Delirium was associated with cognitive decline (−1.8 Mini-Mental State Examination points [95% CI –3.5 to –0.2]) and an increased risk of new dementia diagnosis at follow up (OR 8.8 [95% CI 1.9–41.4]). More than one episode and more days with delirium (>5 days) were associated with worse cognitive outcomes. Conclusions: Delirium increases risk of future cognitive decline and dementia, independent of illness severity and baseline cognition, with more episodes associated with worse cognitive outcomes. Given that delirium has been shown to be preventable in some cases, we propose that delirium is a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia

Seeking Answers for Care Homes during the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID SEARCH).

Abstract: The care and support of older people residing in long-term care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic has created new and unanticipated uncertainties for staff. In this short report, we present our analyses of the uncertainties of care home managers and staff expressed in a self-formed closed WhatsApp™ discussion group during the first stages of the pandemic in the UK. We categorised their wide-ranging questions to understand what information would address these uncertainties and provide support. We have been able to demonstrate that almost one-third of these uncertainties could have been tackled immediately through timely, responsive and unambiguous fact-based guidance. The other uncertainties require appraisal, synthesis and summary of existing evidence, commissioning or provision of a sector- informed research agenda for medium to long term. The questions represent wider internationally relevant care home pandemic-related uncertainties.

New horizons in falls prevention and management for older adults: a global initiative

Abstract: BACKGROUND: falls and fall-related injuries are common in older adults, have negative effects both on quality of life and functional independence and are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and health care costs. Current clinical approaches and advice from falls guidelines vary substantially between countries and settings, warranting a standardised approach. At the first World Congress on Falls and Postural Instability in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in December 2019, a worldwide task force of experts in falls in older adults, committed to achieving a global consensus on updating clinical practice guidelines for falls prevention and management by incorporating current and emerging evidence in falls research. Moreover, the importance of taking a person-centred approach and including perspectives from patients, caregivers and other stakeholders was recognised as important components of this endeavour. Finally, the need to specifically include recent developments in e-health was acknowledged, as well as the importance of addressing differences between settings and including developing countries. METHODS: a steering committee was assembled and 10 working Groups were created to provide preliminary evidence-based recommendations. A cross-cutting theme on patient's perspective was also created. In addition, a worldwide multidisciplinary group of experts and stakeholders, to review the proposed recommendations and to participate in a Delphi process to achieve consensus for the final recommendations, was brought together. CONCLUSION: in this New Horizons article, the global challenges in falls prevention are depicted, the goals of the worldwide task force are summarised and the conceptual framework for development of a global falls prevention and management guideline is presented.

Poor oral hygiene, oral microorganisms and aspiration pneumonia risk in older people in residential aged care: a systematic review

Abstract: Background aspiration pneumonia increases hospitalisation and mortality of older people in residential aged care. Objectives determine potentially pathogenic microorganisms in oral specimens of older people with aspiration pneumonia and the effect of professional oral care in reducing aspiration pneumonia risk. Data Sources PUBMED/MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, COCHRANE, PROQUEST, Google Scholar, Web of Science. Study Eligibility Criteria published between January 2001 and December 2019 addressing oral microorganisms, aspiration pneumonia, oral health and treatment. Participants people 60 years and older in residential aged care. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale and the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Intervention Trials checklist. Results twelve studies (four cross-sectional, five cohort and three intervention) reported colonisation of the oral cavity of older people by microorganisms commonly associated with respiratory infections. Aspiration pneumonia occurred less in people who received professional oral care compared with no such care. Isolation of Candida albicans, Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was related to mortality due to aspiration pneumonia. An interesting finding was isolation of Escherichia coli, a gut bacterium. Limitations more information may be present in publications about other co-morbidities that did not meet inclusion criteria. A high degree of heterogeneity prevented a meta-analysis. Issues included sampling size, no power and effect size calculations; different oral health assessments; how oral specimens were analysed and how aspiration pneumonia was diagnosed. Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings pathogenic microorganisms colonising the oral microbiome are associated with aspiration pneumonia in older people in residential care; professional oral hygiene care is useful in reducing aspiration pneumonia risk.

Abdominal obesity, body mass index and the risk of frailty in community-dwelling older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: Obese older people are more likely to be frail than those with a normal body mass index (BMI), but the results of individual studies have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify the association between obesity and the risk of frailty, and whether there was a relationship between BMI and frailty, in community-dwelling older adults aged ≥60 years. Eight databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, EBSCO, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) were systematically searched from inception to August 2020. Relative risks for incident frailty were pooled using a random-effects model. We found a positive association between abdominal obesity and frailty [relative risk (RR) = 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.91, I2 = 48.1%, P = 0.086, six observational studies, 18,764 subjects]. People in the higher category of waist circumference had a pooled 57% higher risk of frailty than those with a normal waist circumference. In addition, a total of 12 observational studies comprising 37,985 older people were included in the meta-analysis on the relationship between BMI and the risk for frailty. Taking the normal BMI as the reference group, the pooled RR of frailty risk ranged from 1.45 (95% CI 1.10-1.90, I2 = 83.3%; P < 0.01) for the underweight group, to 0.93 (95% CI 0.85-1.02, I2 = 34.6%; P = 0.114) for the overweight group and to 1.40 (95% CI 1.17-1.67, I2 = 86.1%; P < 0.01) for the obese group. We have shown that obesity or underweight is associated with an increased risk of frailty in community-dwelling older adults.

Social isolation, loneliness and functional disability in Chinese older women and men: a longitudinal study.

Abstract: Objective This study investigated whether loneliness or social isolation is associated with the onset of functional disability over 4 years among Chinese older populations. Setting and subjects This study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Functional status was assessed by activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Analyses were conducted with data from two waves (2011 and 2015) and were restricted to those respondents aged 50 and older and free of functional disability at baseline [n = 5,154, mean age (SD) = 60.72 (7.51); male, 52.3%]. Method Social isolation, loneliness and covariates were measured at baseline. Follow-up measures of new-onset ADL and IADL disability were obtained 4 years later. We stratified the sample by gender, and then used binary logistic regressions to evaluate the associations between baseline isolation, loneliness and new-onset ADL and IADL disability. Results For women, baseline social isolation was significantly associated with new-onset ADL (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07-1.30) and IADL (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.01-1.21) disability; no significant association between loneliness and ADL or IADL disability was found. For men, neither social isolation nor loneliness was found to be significantly associated with ADL or IADL disability. Conclusion This longitudinal study found that social isolation, rather than loneliness, was significantly associated with functional disability over 4 years among women (but not men) in China. These findings expand our knowledge about the association between social relationships and functional status among non-Western populations.

Changes in psychological distress before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among older adults: the contribution of frailty transitions and multimorbidity.

Abstract: Aim To investigate changes in psychological distress in community-dwelling older adults before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the contribution of frailty transitions and multimorbidity in predicting the psychological distress. Methods Prospective repeated-measures cohort study on a sample of participants aged 60 and over. A total of 2, 785 respondents at the baseline (May 2019) were followed during the COVID-19 (August 2020). The changes in psychological distress before and during the COVID-19 were assessed using generalised estimation equations with adjusting for sex, age, education, economic status, marital status, tea drinking status, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, sedentary time, sleep quality and activities of daily living. Results The psychological distress of older people has significantly increased in August 2020 compared with May 2019. Both older adults who remained frail and transitioned into frail state reported more psychological distress during the COVID-19. Similarly, both pre-existing multimorbidity and emerging multimorbidity groups were associated with more psychological distress. The group of frailty progression who reported new emerging multimorbidity showed more increase in psychological distress in comparison with those who remained in the non-frail state who reported no multimorbidity. Conclusion Psychological distress has increased among the community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic, and sustained and progressive frail states as well as multimorbidity were all associated with a greater increase of psychological distress. These findings suggest that future public health measures should take into account the increased psychological distress among older people during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the assessment of frailty and multimorbidity might help in warning of psychological distress.

Effects of dance on cognitive function in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Background dance is a mind-body activity that stimulates neuroplasticity. We explored the effect of dance on cognitive function in older adults. Methods we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and PsycInfo databases from inception to August 2020 (PROSPERO:CRD42017057138). Inclusion criteria were (i) randomised controlled trials (ii) older adults (aged ≥ 55 years), (iii) intervention-dance and (iv) outcome-cognitive function. Cognitive domains were classified with the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 Neurocognitive Framework. Meta-analyses were performed in RevMan5.3 and certainty of evidence with GradePro. Results we reviewed 3,997 records and included 11 studies (N = 1,412 participants). Seven studies included only healthy older adults and four included those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Dance interventions varied in frequency (1-3×/week), time (35-60 minutes), duration (3-12 months) and type. We found a mean difference (MD) = 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI) = 0.21-2.95) on the Mini Mental State Examination for global cognitive function (moderate-certainty evidence), and the Wechsler Memory Test for learning and memory had an MD = 3.02 (95% CI = 1.38-4.65; low-certainty evidence). On the Trail Making Test-A for complex attention, MD = 3.07 (95% CI = -0.81 to 6.95; high-certainty evidence) and on the Trail Making Test-B for executive function, MD = -4.12 (95% CI = -21.28 to 13.03; moderate-certainty evidence). Subgroup analyses did not suggest consistently greater effects in older adults with MCI. Evidence is uncertain for language, and no studies evaluated social cognition or perceptual-motor function. Conclusions dance probably improves global cognitive function and executive function. However, there is little difference in complex attention, and evidence also suggests little effect on learning and memory. Future research is needed to determine the optimal dose and if dance results in greater cognitive benefits than other types of physical activity and exercise.

Does vascular endothelial dysfunction play a role in physical frailty and sarcopenia? A systematic review.

Abstract: BACKGROUND Frailty is strongly associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes; however, the underlying pathophysiological processes are largely unknown. Vascular endothelial dysfunction (VED) is the earliest stage of cardiovascular disease (CVD) progression and predicts long-term CVD outcomes. Both these conditions share an elevated inflammatory state as a common pathological factor. OBJECTIVE Systematic literature review was conducted to examine the evidence supporting an association between VED and physical frailty and/or sarcopenia, in electronic databases including Scopus, Ovid Medline, CINAHL, ScienceDirect, ProQuest Health & Medicine and Embase from January 1980 to August 2019. RESULTS A total of 18 studies met the inclusion criteria. VED is independently associated with increased frailty phenotypes and measures of sarcopenia. Several markers of VED, including higher levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine, abnormal ankle brachial index, pulse wave velocity, pulse pressure and lower levels of flow-mediated dilatation, peripheral blood flow and endothelial progenitor cell counts, have been associated with frailty/sarcopenia measurements. Some studies demonstrated the effect of inflammation on the association. CONCLUSIONS Recent studies, although limited, showed that VED could be one of the underlying mechanisms of frailty. It is entirely possible that inflammation-related pathological changes in the vascular endothelium are involved in the early causative mechanisms in physical frailty. The exact mechanism(s) underlying this association are still unclear and will need to be evaluated. The outcomes of these future research studies could potentially inform early preventative strategies for physical frailty and sarcopenia.

Atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulation in older people with frailty: a nationwide primary care electronic health records cohort study.

Abstract: Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people and is associated with increased stroke risk that may be reduced by oral anticoagulation (OAC). Frailty also increases with increasing age, yet the extent of OAC prescription in older people according to extent of frailty in people with AF is insufficiently described. Methods An electronic health records study of 536,955 patients aged ≥65 years from ResearchOne in England (384 General Practices), over 15.4 months, last follow-up 11th April 2017. OAC prescription for AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, adjusted (demographic and treatments) risk of all-cause mortality, and subsequent cerebrovascular disease, bleeding and falls were estimated by electronic frailty index (eFI) category of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty. Results AF prevalence and mean CHA2DS2-Vasc for those with AF increased with increasing eFI category (fit 2.9%, 2.2; mild 11.2%, 3.2; moderate 22.2%, 4.0; and severe 31.5%, 5.0). For AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, OAC prescription was higher for mild (53.2%), moderate (55.6%) and severe (53.4%) eFI categories than fit (41.7%). In those with AF and eligible for OAC, frailty was associated with increased risk of death (HR for severe frailty compared with fit 4.09, 95% confidence interval 3.43–4.89), gastrointestinal bleeding (2.17, 1.45–3.25), falls (8.03, 4.60–14.03) and, among women, stroke (3.63, 1.10–12.02). Conclusion Among older people in England, AF and stroke risk increased with increasing degree of frailty; however, OAC prescription approximated 50%. Given competing demands of mortality, morbidity and stroke prevention, greater attention to stratified stroke prevention is needed for this group of the population.

Social isolation and loneliness as related to progression and reversion of frailty in the Survey of Health Aging Retirement in Europe (SHARE).

Abstract: Background Frailty was shown to be associated with psychosocial risk factors, but there are few longitudinal data. Methods We used data from waves 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health Aging Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to study the contribution of loneliness and social isolation to transitions towards frailty defined according to Fried criteria in a sample of 27,468 individuals aged ≥60. Results At baseline, there were 13,069 (47.6%) robust individuals, 11,430 (41.6%) pre-frail and 2,969 (10.8%) frail. After 2 years, among robust subjects at baseline, 8,706 (61.8%) were still robust, 4,033 (30.8%) were pre-frail and 330 (2.6%) were frail. Among those who were pre-frail, 1,504 (13.2%) progressed to frail and 3,557 (31.1%) became robust. Among frail people, 182 (6.1%) reversed to robust and 1,271 (42.8%) to pre-frail. Average and high levels of loneliness and social isolation were significantly associated with the risk of robust people becoming frail and pre-frail (except robust with high loneliness to become frail), and of pre-frail people to become frail (except with average loneliness). Reversion to robustness was inversely associated with high levels of loneliness. Conclusion Average levels of loneliness and social isolation should not be considered acceptable and should be actively addressed even in the absence of any health conditions through an available evidence-based intervention.

Care Homes and COVID-19 in Hong Kong: how the lessons from SARS were used to good effect.

Abstract: In Hong Kong, about 15% of older people (aged 80 and above) live in care homes, one of the highest proportions in the world. During the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, the crude fatality rate for older people in care homes that were infected was 72%. After taking the advice of a team of international experts, the Hong Kong Government implemented comprehensive preventive measures to cope with the future epidemics. This commentary evaluates the effectiveness of these measures in coping with both influenza outbreaks and COVID-19 and suggests the lessons learnt are relevant to both developed and less developed countries? Lockdown in care homes is very effective under two conditions. Healthcare workers must wear surgical masks in the care home. Hospitals must adopt a strict policy to prevent virus transmission by discharged patients. Care homes situated within high-rise residential towers are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 transmission; their residents can more easily be infected by asymptomatic carriers from the community. Airborne virus can also be transmitted more swiftly in care homes with open-plan layouts. Lockdown had been shown to significantly reduce influenza outbreaks in care homes. On the other hand, lockdown causes loneliness to residents. Care homes allow residents to move freely within the care home though with the risk of spreading the virus by resident who is an asymptomatic carrier. Finally, lockdown may cause family members to have guilty feelings. Family members can only make video call or window visit to residents.