Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

About: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a other organization based out in St Louis, Missouri, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 203 authors who have published 1650 publications receiving 46084 citations.

The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate

Abstract: The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore model accounts for both properties when interest-rate movements are driven, in a significant way, by self-fulfilling shocks that redistribute income away from lenders and to borrowers during booms. The credit-based nature of such self-fulfilling equilibria is shown to be essential: the dynamic correlation between current loanable funds rate and future aggregate economic activity depends critically on the property that the interest rate is state-contingent. Bayesian estimation of our benchmark DSGE model on US data shows that the model driven by redistribution shocks results in a better fit to the data than both standard RBC models and Kiyotaki-Moore type models with unique equilibrium.

Out-of-sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset-Allocation Perspective

Abstract: This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information content of forward rates does not generate any systematic economic value to investors. The performance of the predictive models against the no-predictability benchmark worsens over time and the few positive performance fees recorded from dynamic portfolio strategies based on forward rates are generally small in size and do not offset realistic transaction costs.

Government response to home mortgage distress: lessons from the Great Depression

Abstract: The Great Depression was the worst macroeconomic collapse in U.S. history. Sharp declines in household income and real estate values resulted in soaring mortgage delinquency rates. According to one estimate, as of January 1, 1934, fully one-half of U.S. home mortgages were delinquent and, on average, some 1000 home loans were foreclosed every business day. This paper documents the increase in residential mortgage distress during the Depression, and discusses actions taken by state governments and the federal government to reduce mortgage foreclosures and restore the functioning of the mortgage market. Many states imposed moratoria on both farm and nonfarm residential mortgage foreclosures. Although moratoria reduced farm foreclosure rates in the short run, they appear to have also reduced the supply of loans and made credit more expensive for subsequent borrowers. The federal government took a number of steps to relieve residential mortgage distress and to promote the recovery and growth of the national mortgage market. The Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) was created in 1933 to purchase and refinance delinquent home loans as long-term, amortizing mortgages. Between 1933 and 1936, the HOLC acquired and refinanced one million delinquent loans totaling $3.1 billion. The HOLC refinanced loans on some 10 percent of all nonfarm, owner-occupied dwellings in the United States, and about 20 percent of those with an outstanding mortgage. The Great Depression experience suggests how foreclosures might be reduced during the present crisis.

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions: Quantitative Evidence from a Hybrid Latent-Variable VAR

Abstract: This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We use a latent-variable VAR to estimate the impact of inflation and other macroeconomic shocks on a latent index of stock market conditions. Our objective is to investigate the extent to which various shocks contribute to changes in market conditions, above and beyond their direct effects on real stock prices. We find that disinflation shocks promote market booms and inflation shocks contribute to busts. Further, we find that inflation shocks can explain more of the variation in real stock prices when stock market conditions are taken into account.