Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

About: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a other organization based out in St Louis, Missouri, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 203 authors who have published 1650 publications receiving 46084 citations.

Interbank Markets and Banking Crises: New Evidence on the Establishment and Impact of the Federal Reserve

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Federal Reserve's founding on seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the interbank system. Deposit flows among classes of banks were highly seasonal before 1914; amplitude and timing varied regionally. Panics interrupted normal flows as banks throughout the country sought funds from the central money markets simultaneously. Seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the system were lower by the 1920s, when the Fed provided seasonal liquidity and reserves. Panics returned in the 1930s, due in part to shocks from nonmember banks and because the Fed's decentralized structure hampered a vigorous response to national crises.

Income and Lottery Sales Transfers Trump Income from Work and Wealth

Abstract: The effect of income on lottery expenditures has generally been studied using an aggregate measure of income, usually personal income. Reasons exist for thinking that lottery expenditures do not re...

Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting

Abstract: Summary Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper provides analytical, Monte Carlo and empirical evidence on tests of predictive ability for conditional forecasts from estimated models. In the empirical analysis, we examine conditional forecasts obtained with a VAR in the variables included in the DSGE model of Smets and Wouters (American Economic Review 2007; 97: 586–606). Throughout the analysis, we focus on tests of bias, efficiency and equal accuracy applied to conditional forecasts from VAR models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Counterterrorism policy: Spillovers, regime solidity, and corner solutions

Abstract: This paper takes a unique approach to the scenario where a resident terrorist group in a (fragile) developing nation poses a terrorism threat at home and abroad The host developing nation's proactive countermeasures against the resident terrorist group not only limits terrorism at home and abroad, but also bolsters regime solidity or stability at home A two-stage game is presented in which the developed country takes a leadership role to institute a tax-subsidy combination to discourage (encourage) proactive measures at home (abroad) in stage 1 Stage 2 involves both nations’ counterterrorism choices under alternative stage-1 public-policy packages Unlike the extant literature, we explore corner and interior solutions in both stages based on the terrorists’ targeting preferences and the host nation's regime-solidity preferences Surprisingly, the developed nation may profit from policy packages that reduce global counterterrorism while raising global terrorism That outcome and others involve engineered counterterrorism burden shifting