Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

About: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a other organization based out in St Louis, Missouri, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 203 authors who have published 1650 publications receiving 46084 citations.

Using Extraneous Information to Analyze Monetary Policy in Transition Economies

Abstract: Empirical macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of the transition economies. We utilize a mixed-estimation method incorporating prior information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form transition economy model. An exactly identified structural VAR model is constructed to analyze monetary policy in the transition economies. The OECD information increases the precision of the impulse response functions in the transition economies. The method provides a systematic way to analyze monetary policy in the transition economies where data availability is limited.

Estimating border effects: the impact of spatial aggregation

Abstract: Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the model's predictions, with quantitatively large effects.

Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends

Abstract: Countries with more developed financial markets (as measured by the private debt-to-GDP ratio) tend to have significantly lower aggregate volatility This relationship is also highly non-linear starting from a low level of financial development the reduction in aggregate volatility by financial deepening is far more significant than it is when the financial market is more developed We build a fully-‡edged neoclassical growth model with an endogenous financial market of credit arrangements and private debt to rationalize these stylized facts We show how financial development that promotes better credit allocations under more relaxed borrowing constraints can reduce the impact of non-financial shocks (such as TFP shocks, government spending shocks, preference shocks) on aggregate output and investment, and why this volatility-reducing effect diminishes with continuing financial development Our simple model also sheds light on a number of other important issues, such as the "Great Moderation" and the simultaneously rising trends of dispersions in sales growth and stock returns for publicly traded firms

The Option Value of Human Capital: Higher Education and Wage Inequality

Abstract: Going to college is a risky investment in human capital. However, we highlight two options inherently embedded in college education that mitigate this risk: (i) college students can quit without completing four-year degrees after learning about their post-graduation wages and (ii) college graduates can take jobs that do not require four-year degrees (i.e., underemployment). These options reduce the chances of falling in the lower end of the wage distribution as a college graduate, rendering standard mean-variance calculations misleading. We show that the interaction between these options and the rising wage dispersion, especially among college graduates, is key to understanding the muted response of college enrollment and graduation rates to the substantial increase in the college wage premium in the United States since 1980. Furthermore, we find that subsidies inducing marginal students to attend colleges will have a negligible net benefit: Such students are far more likely to drop out of college or become underemployed even with a four-year degree, implying only small wage gains from college education.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Cities, Skills, and Inequality

Abstract: The surge in U.S. wage inequality over the past several decades is now commonly attributed to an increase in the returns paid to skill. Although theories differ with respect to why, specifically, this increase has come about, many agree that it is strongly tied to the increase in the relative supply of skilled (i.e. highly educated) workers in the U.S. labor market. A greater supply of skilled labor, for example, may have induced skill-biased technological change or generated greater stratification of workers by skill across firms or jobs. Given that metropolitan areas in the U.S. have long possessed more educated populations than non-metropolitan areas, these theories suggest that the rise in both the returns to skill and wage inequality should have been particularly pronounced in cities. Evidence from the U.S. Census over the period 1950 to 1990 supports both implications.