Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 2012"
TL;DR: This paper used a generalized vector autoregressive framework to characterize daily volatility spillovers across US stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodities markets, from January 1999 to January 2010, and showed that despite significant volatility fluctuations in all four markets during the sample, cross-market volatility spillover were quite limited until the global financial crisis, which began in 2007.
2,688 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a new factor model that consists of the market factor, a size factor, an investment factor, and a return-on-equity factor.
Abstract: Motivated from investment-based asset pricing, we propose a new factor model that consists of the market factor, a size factor, an investment factor, and a return-on-equity factor The new model [i] outperforms the Carhart (1997) four-factor model in pricing portfolios formed on earnings surprise, idiosyncratic volatility, financial distress, equity issues, as well as on investment and return-on-equity; [ii] performs similarly as the Carhart model in pricing portfolios on momentum as well as on size and book-to-market; but [iii] underperforms in pricing the total accrual deciles Our model's performance, combined with its clear economic intuition, suggests that it can serve as a new workhorse model for academic research and investment management practice
1,277 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, satellite data on lights at night is used to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement errors in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts.
Abstract: GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income accounts data, information on growth of lights is of marginal value in estimating the true growth rate of income, while for countries with the worst national income accounts, the optimal estimate of true income growth is a composite with roughly equal weights. Among poor-data countries, our new estimate of average annual growth differs by as much as 3 percentage points from official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we examine growth in Sub Saharan African regions over the last 17 years. We find that real incomes in non-coastal areas have grown faster by 1/3 of an annual percentage point than coastal areas; non-malarial areas have grown faster than malarial ones by 1/3 to 2/3 annual percent points; and primate city regions have grown no faster than hinterland areas. Such applications point toward a research program in which "empirical growth" need no longer be synonymous with "national income accounts."
1,216 citations
TL;DR: A door-to-door fund-raiser in which some households are informed about the exact time of solicitation with a flyer on their doorknobs is designed, finding that the flyer reduces the share of households opening the door by 9% to 25% and reduces giving by 28% to 42%.
Abstract: Every year, 90 percent of Americans give money or time to charities. Is such generosity necessarily welfare enhancing? We present a theoretical framework that pinpoints two types of motivation: individuals like to give, e.g., due to altruism or warm glow, or individuals would rather not give but dislike saying no, e.g., due to social pressure. To distinguish the two types of motivation, we design a door-to-door fund-raising drive in which we vary the ability of households to seek or avoid a solicitor. Some households are informed about the exact time of solicitation with a flyer on the door-knob; thus, they can seek the fund-raiser if giving is welfare-enhancing, and avoid it if giving is welfare-decreasing. We find that the flyer reduces the share of households opening the door by 10 to 25 percent, suggesting that the average household seeks to avoid fund-raisers. Moreover, if the flyer allows checking a box for ‘Do Not Disturb’ giving is 30 percent lower. The latter decrease is concentrated among donations smaller than $10. These findings suggest that both types of motivation affect charitable giving, with more evidence supporting the social pressure explanation. Combining reduced form insights from these treatments with data gathered from a complementary field experiment, we are able to structurally estimate altruism and social pressure parameters.
964 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present results from a randomized field experiment in which low-income individuals receiving tax preparation help were also offered immediate assistance and a streamlined process to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) for themselves or their children.
Abstract: Growing concerns about low awareness and take-up rates for government support programs like college financial aid have spurred calls to simplify the application process and enhance visibility. We present results from a randomized field experiment in which low-income individuals receiving tax preparation help were also offered immediate assistance and a streamlined process to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) for themselves or their children. Treated participants were also provided with aid estimates that were compared against tuition cost amounts for nearby colleges. The combined assistance and information treatment substantially increased FAFSA submissions and ultimately the likelihood of college attendance, persistence, and aid receipt. In particular, high school seniors whose parents received the treatment were 8 percentage points more likely to have completed two years of college, going from 28% to 36%, during the first three years following the experiment. Families who received aid information but no assistance with the FAFSA did not experience improved outcomes. The findings suggest many other opportunities for using personal assistance to increase participation in programs that require filling out forms to become eligible. JEL Codes: I2, H4, J24. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.
901 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that banks with more shareholder-friendly boards performed significantly worse during the crisis than other banks, were not less risky before the crisis, and reduced loans more during crisis, while large banks from countries with more restrictions on bank activities performed better and decreased loans less.
876 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that U.S. CEOs are significantly more optimistic and risk-tolerant than the rest of the population, and that their behavioral traits such as optimism and managerial risk-aversion are related to corporate financial policies.
Abstract: We administer psychometric tests to senior executives to obtain evidence on their underlying psychological traits and attitudes. We find U.S. CEOs differ significantly from non-U.S. CEOs in terms of their underlying attitudes. In addition, we find that CEOs are significantly more optimistic and risk-tolerant than the lay population. We provide evidence that CEO’s behavioral traits such as optimism and managerial risk-aversion are related to corporate financial policies. Further, we provide new empirical evidence that CEO traits such as risk aversion and time preference are related to their compensation.
789 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors develop a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financial stability policies, and show how in a simple economy where commercial banks are the only lenders, conventional monetary-policy tools such as open-market operations can be used to regulate this externality, while in more advanced economies it may be helpful to supplement monetary policy with other measures.
Abstract: This paper develops a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financialstability policies. There are three main points. First, from a normative perspective, the model defines the fundamental market failure to be addressed, namely that unregulated private money creation can lead to an externality in which intermediaries issue too much short-term debt and leave the system excessively vulnerable to costly financial crises. Second, it shows how in a simple economy where commercial banks are the only lenders, conventional monetary-policy tools such as open-market operations can be used to regulate this externality, while in more advanced economies it may be helpful to supplement monetary policy with other measures. Third, from a positive perspective, the model provides an account of how monetary policy can influence bank lending and real activity, even in a world where prices adjust frictionlessly and there are other transactions media besides bank-created money that are outside the control of the central bank.
755 citations
TL;DR: This article developed a new metric for the distribution of educational achievement across countries that can further track the cognitive skill distribution within countries and over time, and found a close relationship between educational achievement and GDP growth that is remarkably stable across extensive sensitivity analyses of specification, time period, and country samples.
Abstract: We develop a new metric for the distribution of educational achievement across countries that can further track the cognitive skill distribution within countries and over time. Cross-country growth regressions generate a close relationship between educational achievement and GDP growth that is remarkably stable across extensive sensitivity analyses of specification, time period, and country samples. In a series of now-common microecono- metric approaches for addressing causality, we narrow the range of plausible interpretations of this strong cognitive skills-growth relationship. These alternative estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences among immigrants on the U.S. labor market, and longitudinal analysis of changes in cognitive skills and in growth rates, leave the stylized fact of a strong impact of cognitive skills unchanged. Moreover, the results indicatethatschoolpolicycanbeanimportantinstrumenttospurgrowth.Thesharesofbasic
720 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that much of the difference between binary and nonnegative outcomes comes from a focus on structural parameters, such as index coefcients, instead of causal effects, and propose several simple strategies to accommodate binary endogenous regressors.
Abstract: Applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and nonnegative outcomes. I argue here that much of the difculty with limited dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters, such as index coefcients, instead of causal effects. Once the object of estimation is taken to be the causal effect of treatment, several simple strategies are available. These include conventional two-stage least squares, multiplicative models for conditional means, linear approximation of nonlinear causal models, models for distribution effects, and quantile regression with an endogenous binary regressor. The estimation strategies discussed in the article are illustrated by using multiple births to estimate the effect of childbearing on employment status and hours of work.
669 citations
TL;DR: This paper found that prices of non-energy commodity futures in the United States have become increasingly expensive with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s, concurrent with the rapid growth of commodity markets.
Abstract: The authors found that, concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s, prices of non-energy commodity futures in the United States have become incr...
TL;DR: The authors found that the volume of cross-border mergers is lower when countries are more culturally distant and that greater cultural distance in trust and individualism leads to lower combined announcement returns.
Abstract: We find strong evidence that three key dimensions of national culture (trust, hierarchy, and individualism) affect merger volume and synergy gains. The volume of cross-border mergers is lower when countries are more culturally distant. In addition, greater cultural distance in trust and individualism leads to lower combined announcement returns. These findings are robust to year and country-level fixed effects, time-varying country-pair and deal-level variables, as well as instrumental variables for cultural differences based on genetic and somatic differences. The results are the first large-scale evidence that cultural differences have substantial impacts on multiple aspects of cross-border mergers.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated how financial development affects aggregate productivity growth and showed that the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth.
Abstract: This paper investigates how financial development affects aggregate productivity growth. Based on a sample of developed and emerging economies, we first show that the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth. Second, focusing on advanced economies, we show that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth.
Book•
14 Aug 2012TL;DR: The authors show that firms statistically discriminate among young workers on the basis of easily observable characteristics such as education, and that as firms learn about productivity, the coefficients on easily observed variables should fall, and coefficients on hard-to-observe correlates of productivity should rise.
Abstract: We show that if firms statistically discriminate among young workers on the basis of easily observable characteristics such as education, then as firms learn about productivity, the coefficients on the easily observed variables should fall, and the coefficients on hard-to-observe correlates of productivity should rise. We find support for this proposition using NLSY79 data on education, the AFQT test, father's education, and wages for young men and their siblings. We find little evidence for statistical discrimination in wages on the basis of race. Our analysis has a wide range of applications in the labor market and elsewhere.
TL;DR: Using data from Moving to Opportunity, a unique randomized housing mobility experiment, it is found that moving from a high-poverty to lower-p poverty neighborhood leads to long-term improvements in adult physical and mental health and subjective well-being, despite not affecting economic self-sufficiency.
Abstract: Nearly 9 million Americans live in extreme-poverty neighborhoods, places that also tend to be racially segregated and dangerous. Yet, the effects on the well-being of residents of moving out of such communities into less distressed areas remain uncertain. Using data from Moving to Opportunity, a unique randomized housing mobility experiment, we found that moving from a high-poverty to lower-poverty neighborhood leads to long-term (10- to 15-year) improvements in adult physical and mental health and subjective well-being, despite not affecting economic self-sufficiency. A 1–standard deviation decline in neighborhood poverty (13 percentage points) increases subjective well-being by an amount equal to the gap in subjective well-being between people whose annual incomes differ by $13,000—a large amount given that the average control group income is $20,000. Subjective well-being is more strongly affected by changes in neighborhood economic disadvantage than racial segregation, which is important because racial segregation has been declining since 1970, but income segregation has been increasing.
TL;DR: The Global Financial Development Database (GFDB) as discussed by the authors is a dataset of financial system characteristics for 205 economies from 1960 to 2010, which includes measures of the size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), degree to which individuals can and do use financial services (access), efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and stability of financial institution and markets.
Abstract: This paper introduces the Global Financial Development Database, an extensive dataset of financial system characteristics for 205 economies from 1960 to 2010. The database includes measures of (a) size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), (b) degree to which individuals can and do use financial services (access), (c) efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and (d) stability of financial institutions and markets (stability). The authors document cross-country differences and time series trends.
TL;DR: In this article, a new approach is proposed to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities, quantifying the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity.
Abstract: We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the impact of gender quotas for corporate board seats on corporate decisions and found that affected firms undertook fewer workforce reductions than comparison firms, increasing relative labor costs and employment levels and reducing short-term profits.
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of gender quotas for corporate board seats on corporate decisions. We examine the introduction of Norway’s 2006 quota, comparing affected firms to other Nordic companies, public and private, that were unaffected by the rule. We find that affected firms undertook fewer workforce reductions than comparison firms, increasing relative labor costs and employment levels and reducing short-term profits. The effects are strongest among firms without female board members beforehand and are present even for boards with older and more experienced members afterward. The boards appear to be affecting corporate strategy in part by selecting likeminded executives.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the literature on financial literacy, financial education, and consumer financial outcomes, and examine how well the existing literature addresses whether financial education improves financial literacy or personal financial outcomes.
Abstract: In this article we review the literature on financial literacy, financial education, and consumer financial outcomes. We consider how financial literacy is measured in the current literature, and examine how well the existing literature addresses whether financial education improves financial literacy or personal financial outcomes. We discuss the extent to which a competitive market provides incentives for firms to educate consumers or offer products that facilitate informed choice. We review the literature on alternative policies to improve financial outcomes, and compare the evidence to evidence on the efficacy and cost of financial education. Finally, we discuss directions for future research.
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TL;DR: Two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) are proposed and shown to yield an equivalent measure and two additional interpretations of this measure are provided.
Abstract: We propose two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) and show that they yield an equivalent measure. Furthermore, we provide two additional interpretations of this measure, one of them related to the concept of forward linkages in Input-Output analysis. On the empirical side, we construct this measure for 426 industries using the 2002 US Input-Output Tables. We also verify the stability of upstreamness across countries in the OECD STAN database, albeit with a more aggregated industry classification. Finally, we present an application that explores the determinants of the average upstreamness of exports at the country level using trade flows for 2002.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study CEO turnover from 1992 to 2007 for a sample of large US companies and find that turnover sensitivity is modestly related to block shareholder ownership and board independence.
Abstract: We study CEO turnover – both internal (board driven) and external (through takeover and bankruptcy) – from 1992 to 2007 for a sample of large US companies. Annual CEO turnover is higher than that estimated in previous studies over earlier periods. Turnover is 15.8% from 1992 to 2007, implying an average tenure as CEO of less than 7 years. In the more recent period since 2000, total CEO turnover increases to 16.8%, implying an average tenure of less than 6 years. Internal turnover is significantly related to three components of firm stock performance – performance relative to industry, industry performance relative to the overall market, and the performance of the overall stock market. The relations are stronger in the more recent period since 2000. We find similar patterns for both forced and unforced turnover, suggesting that some, if not most, turnover labeled as unforced is actually not voluntary. The turnover-performance sensitivity is modestly related to block shareholder ownership and board independence.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find that innovative efficiency (IE), patents or citations scaled by R&D, is a strong positive predictor of future returns after controlling for firm characteristics and risk.
Abstract: We find that innovative efficiency (IE), patents or citations scaled by R&D, is a strong positive predictor of future returns after controlling for firm characteristics and risk. The IE-return relation is associated with the loading on a mispricing factor, and the high Sharpe ratio of the Efficient Minus Inefficient (EMI) portfolio suggests that mispricing plays an important role. Further tests based upon attention and uncertainty proxies suggest that limited attention contributes to the effect. The high weight of the EMI portfolio return in the tangency portfolio suggests that IE captures incremental pricing effects relative to well-known factors.
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TL;DR: For the last decade, the authors have been using double-blind survey techniques and randomized sampling to construct management data on over 10,000 organizations across twenty countries, finding that in manufacturing American, Japanese, and German firms are the best managed.
Abstract: For the last decade we have been using double-blind survey techniques and randomized sampling to construct management data on over 10,000 organizations across twenty countries. On average, we find that in manufacturing American, Japanese, and German firms are the best managed. Firms in developing countries, such as Brazil, China and India tend to be poorly managed. American retail firms and hospitals are also well managed by international standards, although American schools are worse managed than those in several other developed countries. We also find substantial variation in management practices across organizations in every country and every sector, mirroring the heterogeneity in the spread of performance in these sectors. One factor linked to this variation is ownership. Government, family, and founder owned firms are usually poorly managed, while multinational, dispersed shareholder and private-equity owned firms are typically well managed. Stronger product market competition and higher worker skills are associated with better management practices. Less regulated labor markets are associated with improvements in incentive management practices such as performance based promotion.
TL;DR: In this paper, a time-varying probability of a consumption disaster is used to predict stock returns in excess of government bill rates, and the possibility of this poor outcome substantially increases the stock market volatility and excess return predictability.
Abstract: Why is the equity premium so high, and why are stocks so volatile? Why are stock returns in excess of government bill rates predictable? This paper proposes an answer to these questions based on a time-varying probability of a consumption disaster. In the model, aggregate consumption follows a normal distribution with low volatility most of the time, but with some probability of a consumption realization far out in the left tail. The possibility of this poor outcome substantially increases the equity premium, while time-variation in the probability of this outcome drives high stock market volatility and excess return predictability.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a theory of context-dependent choice in which a consumer's attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods, such as quality or price, and apply the model to study discounts and sales, and to explain demand for low deductible insurance.
Abstract: We present a theory of context-dependent choice in which a consumer's attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods, such as quality or price. An attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good's characteristics, in the precise sense of being furthest away in that good from its average level in the choice set (or more generally, an evoked set). A local thinker chooses among goods by attaching disproportionately high weights to their salient attributes. When goods are characterized by only one quality attribute and price, salience tilts choices toward goods with higher ratios of quality to price. We use the model to account for a variety of disparate bits of evidence, including decoy effects in consumer choice, context-dependent willingness to pay, balance of qualities in desirable goods, and shifts in demand toward low quality goods when all prices in a category rise. We then apply the model to study discounts and sales, and to explain demand for low deductible insurance.
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TL;DR: This paper found that children of homeowners have better outcomes than children of renters whether their parents make a large or small initial investment in their home, as long as they make a minimal down payment when they buy their homes.
Abstract: We find that children of homeowners have better outcomes than children of renters whether their parents make a large or small initial investment in their home, as long as they make a minimal down payment when they buy their homes. Children with parents who made no down payment have similar outcomes to children of renters. The effect of homeownership holds up under myriad specifications, measuring initial housing investment as either an LTV ratio or a down payment dollar amount, and controlling for parent and family characteristics and geographic and year fixed effects.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions: first, investors neglect certain unlikely risks.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters.
Abstract: A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities. The conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a property-rights model of the firm in which production entails a continuum of uniquely sequenced stages and showed that the incentive to integrate suppliers varies systematically with the relative position (upstream versus downstream) at which the supplier entered the production line.
Abstract: We develop a property-rights model of the firm in which production entails a continuum of uniquely sequenced stages. In each stage, a final-good producer contracts with a distinct supplier for the procurement of a customized stage-specific component. Our model yields a sharp characterization for the optimal allocation of ownership rights along the value chain. We show that the incentive to integrate suppliers varies systematically with the relative position (upstream versus downstream) at which the supplier enters the production line. Furthermore, the nature of the relationship between integration and "downstreamness" depends crucially on the elasticity of demand faced by the final-good producer. Our model readily accommodates various sources of asymmetry across final-good producers and across suppliers within a production line, and we show how it can be taken to the data with international trade statistics. Combining data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Related Party Trade database and estimates of U.S. import demand elasticities from Broda and Weinstein (2006), we find empirical evidence broadly supportive of our key predictions. In the process, we develop two novel measures of the average position of an industry in the value chain, which we construct using U.S. Input-Output Tables.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use U.S. Census data over twenty-five years to understand the lifecycle dynamics of VC- and non-VC-financed firms, and find both successful and failed VC- financings achieve larger scale but are not more profitable at exit than matched non-VFC-financings.
Abstract: We use U.S. Census data over twenty-five years to understand the lifecycle dynamics of VC- and non-VC-financed firms. We find both successful and failed VC-financed firms achieve larger scale but are not more profitable at exit than matched non-VC-financed firms. Cumulative failure rates of VC-financed firms are lower, with the difference being driven largely by lower failure rates in the initial years after receiving VC. Our results are not driven by VCs disguising failures as acquisitions or by certain types of VCs. Finally, the performance difference between VC- and non-VC-financed firms narrows in the post-internet bubble years, but does not disappear.