Showing papers by "World Bank published in 2005"

Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?

Abstract: Using a unique firm-level survey database covering 54 countries, we investigate the effect of financial, legal, and corruption problems on firms' growth rates. Whether these factors constrain growth depends on firm size. It is consistently the smallest firms that are most constrained. Financial and institutional development weakens the constraining effects of financial, legal, and corruption obstacles and it is again the small firms that benefit the most. There is only a weak relation between firms' perception of the quality of the courts in their country and firm growth. We also provide evidence that the corruption of bank officials constrains firm growth.

Governance matters IV : governance indicators for 1996-2004

Abstract: The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.

Workers' Remitt ances: An Important and Stable Source of External Development Finance

Abstract: This is the original article, published in 2003 as a chapter in the Global Development Finance flagship report of the World Bank, that brought workers' remittances to the attention of the global development community. It highlighted that remittances provide a lifeline to many poor countries: they are larger than official development aid, they are counter-cyclical to the recipient country's economic cycle, and they can be leveraged for complementing development efforts.

The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth

Abstract: Many oil, mineral, and plantation crop-based economies experienced a substantial deceleration in growth following the commodity boom and bust of the 1970s and early 1980s. This article illustrates how countries dependent on point source natural resources (those extracted from a narrow geographic or economic base, such as oil and minerals) and plantation crops are predisposed to heightened economic and social divisions and weakened institutional capacity. This in turn impedes their ability to respond effectively to shocks, which previous studies have shown to be essential for sustaining rising levels of prosperity. Analysis of data on classifications of export structure, controlling for a wide array of other potential determinants of governance, shows that point source and coffee and cocoa exporting countries do relatively poorly across an array of governance indicators. These governance effects are not associated simply with being a natural resource exporter. Countries with natural resource exports that are diffuse relying primarily on livestock and agricultural produce from small family farms do not show the same strong effects and have had more robust growth recoveries.

SMEs, Growth, and Poverty: Cross-Country Evidence

Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the relative size of the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, economic growth, and poverty alleviation using a new database on the share of SME labor in the total manufacturing labor force. Using a sample of 45 countries, we find a strong, positive association between the importance of SMEs and GDP per capita growth. The data do not, however, confidently support the conclusions that SMEs exert a causal impact on growth. Furthermore, we find no evidence that SMEs alleviate poverty or decrease income inequality.

Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs

Abstract: Several developing economies have recently introduced conditional cash transfer programs, which provide money to poor families contingent on certain behavior, usually investments in human capital, such as sending children to school or bringing them to health centers. The approach is both an alternative to more traditional social assistance programs and a demand-side complement to the supply of health and education services. Unlike most development initiatives, conditional cash transfer programs have been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness using experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Evaluation results for programs launched in Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Turkey reveal successes in addressing many of the failures in delivering social assistance, such as weak poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfare impacts. There is clear evidence of success from the first generation of programs in Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua in increasing enrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raising household consumption. Many questions remain unanswered, however, including the potential of conditional cash transfer programs to function well under different conditions, to address a broader range of challenges among poor and vulnerable populations, and to prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty.

Fighting Corruption to Improve Schooling: Evidence from a Newspaper Campaign in Uganda

Abstract: What are the most effective ways to increase primary school enrollment and student learning? We argue that innovations in governance of social services may yield the highest return since social service delivery in developing countries is often plagued by inefficiencies and corruption. We illustrate this by using data from an unusual policy experiment. A newspaper campaign in Uganda aimed at reducing capture of public funds by providing schools (parents) with information to monitor local officials' handling of a large education grant program. The campaign was highly successful and the reduction in capture had a positive effect on enrollment and student learning. (JEL: D73, I22, O12)

Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries

Abstract: Rising international trade flows are a primary component of globalization. The liberalization of trade policy in many developing countries has helped foster the growth of these flows. Preceding and concurrent with this move to free trade, there has been a global movement toward democracy. We argue that these two trends are related: democratization of the political system reduces the ability of governments to use trade barriers as a strategy for building political support. Political leaders in labor rich countries may prefer lower trade barriers as democracy increases. Empirical evidence supports our claim about the developing countries from 1970-1999. Regime change toward democracy is associated with trade liberalization, controlling for many factors. Conventional explanations of economic reform, such as economic crises and external pressures, seem less salient. Democratization may have fostered globalization in this period.

Corporate Governance and Bank Performance: A Joint Analysis of the Static, Selection, and Dynamic Effects of Domestic, Foreign, and State Ownership

Abstract: We jointly analyze the static, selection, and dynamic effects of domestic, foreign, and state ownership on bank performance. We argue that it is important to include indicators of all the relevant governance effects in the same model. "Nonrobustness" checks (which purposely exclude some indicators) support this argument. Using data from Argentina in the 1990s, our strongest and most robust results concern state ownership. State-owned banks have poor long-term performance (static effect), those undergoing privatization had particularly poor performance beforehand (selection effect), and these banks dramatically improved following privatization (dynamic effect). However, much of the measured improvement is likely due to placing nonperforming loans into residual entities, leaving "good" privatized banks.

Remittances, household expenditure and investment in Guatemala

Abstract: The author uses a large household data set from Guatemala to analyze how the receipt of internal remittances (from Guatemala) and international remittances (from the United States) affects the marginal spending behavior of households on various consumption and investment goods. Contrary to other studies, the author finds that households receiving remittances actually spend less at the margin on consumption-food and consumer goods and durables-than do households receiving no remittances. Instead of spending on consumption, households receiving remittances tend to spend more on investment goods, like education, health, and housing. The analysis shows that a large amount of remittance money goes into education. At the margin, households receiving internal and international remittances spend 45 and 58 percent more, respectively, on education, than do households with no remittances. These increased expenditures on education represent investment in human capital. Like other studies, the author finds that remittance-receiving households spend more at the margin on housing. These increased expenditures on housing represent a type of investment for the migrant, as well as a means for boosting local economic development by creating new income and employment opportunities for skilled and unskilled workers.

The bounds of the concentration index when the variable of interest is binary, with an application to immunization inequality.

Abstract: When the health sector variable whose inequality is being investigated is binary, the minimum and maximum possible values of the concentration index are equal to micro-1 and 1-micro, respectively, where micro is the mean of the variable in question. Thus as the mean increases, the range of the possible values of the concentration index shrinks, tending to zero as the mean tends to one and the concentration index tends to zero. Examples are presented on levels of and inequalities in immunization across 41 developing countries, and on changes in coverage and inequalities in selected countries.

Trade Credit and Bank Credit: Evidence from Recent Financial Crises

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. We find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. We observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. Our results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed via trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand.

Finance, firm size and growth

Abstract: The authors examine whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth. They define an industry's technological firm size as the firm size implied by industrial specific production technologies, including capital intensities and scale economies. Using cross-industry, cross-country data, the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms. This suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications.

Measuring Empowerment in Practice : Structuring Analysis and Framing Indicators

Abstract: This paper presents an analytic framework that can be used to measure and monitor empowerment processes and outcomes. The measuring empowerment (ME) framework, rooted in both conceptual discourse and measurement practice, illustrates how to gather data on empowerment and structure its analysis. The framework can be used to measure empowerment at both the intervention level and the country level, as a part of poverty or governance monitoring. The paper first provides a definition of empowerment and then explains how the concept can be reduced to measurable components. Empowerment is defined as a person's capacity to make effective choices; that is, as the capacity to transform choices into desired actions and outcomes. The extent or degree to which a person is empowered is influenced by personal agency (the capacity to make purposive choice) and opportunity structure (the institutional context in which choice is made). Asset endowments are used as indicators of agency. These assets may be psychological, informational, organizational, material, social, financial, or human. Opportunity structure is measured by the presence and operation of formal and informal institutions, including the laws, regulatory frameworks, and norms governing behavior. Degrees of empowerment are measured by the existence of choice, the use of choice, and the achievement of choice. Following the conceptual discussion and the presentation of the analytic framework, this paper illustrates how the ME framework can be applied, using examples from four development interventions. Each example discusses how the framework guided analysis and development of empowerment indicators. The paper also presents a draft module for measuring empowerment at the country level. The module can be used alone or be integrated into country-level poverty or governance monitoring systems that seek to add an empowerment dimension to their analysis.

Access to Financial Services: A Review of the Issues and Public Policy Objectives

Abstract: This paper reviews the evidence on the importance of finance for economic well-being, provides data on the degree of usage of basic financial services by households and firms across a sample of countries, assesses the desirability of more universal access, and overviews the macro-economic, legal and regulatory obstacles to access using general evidence and case studies. Although access to finance can be very beneficial, the data show that universal usage is far from prevalent in many countries, especially developing countries. At the same time, universal access has generally not been a public policy objective and is surely not easily achievable in most countries. Countries can, however, undertake many actions to facilitate access to financial services, including through strengthening their institutional infrastructures, liberalizing and opening up their markets and facilitating greater competition, and encouraging innovative use of know -how and technology. Government attempts and interventions to directly broaden the provision of access to finance, however, are fraught with risks and costs, among others, the risk of missing the targeted groups. The paper concludes with possible global actions aimed at improving data on access and usage and areas of further analysis to help identify the constraints to broadening access.

Democracy, credibility and clientelism

Abstract: The authors demonstrate that sharply different policy choices across democracies can be explained as a consequence of differences in the ability of political competitors to make credible pre-electoral commitments to voters. Politicians can overcome their credibility deficit in two ways. First, they can build reputations. This requires that they fulfill preconditions that in practice are costly: informing voters of their promises; tracking those promises; ensuring that voters turn out on election day. Alternatively, they can rely on intermediaries -- patrons - who are already able to make credible commitments to their clients. Endogenizing credibility in this way, the authors find that targeted transfers and corruption are higher and public good provision lower than in democracies in which political competitors can make credible pre-electoral promises. The authors also argue that in the absence of political credibility, political reliance on patrons enhances welfare in the short-run, in contrast to the traditional view that clientelism in politics is a source of significant policy distortion. However, in the long run reliance on patrons may undermine the emergence of credible political parties. The model helps to explain several puzzles. For example, public investment and corruption are higher in young democracies than old; and democratizing reforms succeeded remarkably in Victorian England, in contrast to the more difficult experiences of many democratizing countries, such as the Dominican Republic.

Opportunities and Challenges in Antiparasitic Drug Discovery

Abstract: New antiparasitic drugs are urgently needed to treat and control diseases such as malaria, leishmaniasis, sleeping sickness and filariasis, which affect millions of people each year. However, because the majority of those infected live in countries in which the prospects of any financial return on investment are too low to support market-driven drug discovery and development, alternative approaches are needed. In this article, challenges and opportunities for antiparasitic drug discovery are considered, highlighting some of the progress that has been made in recent years, partly through scientific advances, but also by more effective partnership between the public and private sectors.

Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries

Abstract: In this paper, we present cross-country evidence on firm size distribution, firm demographic and post-entry performance for 10 OECD countries. We use harmonized firm-level data drawn from business registers or social security records. These data enable international comparisons and the identification of idiosyncratic country effects. While average firm size differs across countries, due to both sectoral specialization and within-sector characteristics, we find similar degrees of firm churning across countries. In most of them, about 20% of firms enter and exit most markets every year; and about 20–40% of entering firms fail within the first 2 years of life. However, post-entry growth of successful entrants is much higher in the USA than in Europe, which may be indicative of barriers to firm growth as opposed to barriers to entry.

Corporate governance and bank performance : a joint analysis of the static, selection, and dynamic effects of domestic, foreign, and state ownership

Abstract: We jointly analyze the static, selection, and dynamic effects of domestic, foreign, and state ownership on bank performance. We argue that it is important to include indicators of all the relevant governance effects in the same model. “Nonrobustness” checks (which purposely exclude some indicators) support this argument. Using data from Argentina in the 1990s, our strongest and most robust results concern state ownership. State-owned banks have poor long-term performance (static effect), those undergoing privatization had particularly poor performance beforehand (selection effect), and these banks dramatically improved following privatization (dynamic effect). However, much of the measured improvement is likely due to placing nonperforming loans into residual entities, leaving “good” privatized banks.

Remittances, Institutions and Economic Growth

Abstract: There is considerable debate regarding the relative contribution of international migrants' remittances to sustainable economic development. While the rates and levels of officially recorded remittances to developing countries has increased enormously over the last decade, academic and policy-oriented research has not come to a consensus over whether remittances contribute to longer-term growth by building human and financial capital or degrade long-run growth by creating labor substitution and "Dutch disease" effects. This paper suggests that contradictory findings have emerged when looking at the remittances-growth link because previous studies have not correctly controlled for endogeneity. Using Dynamic Data Panel estimates we find that remittances exert a weakly positive impact on long-term macroeconomic growth. The paper also considers the proposition that the longer-term developmental impact of remittances is increased in the presence of sound economic policies and institutions.