Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2001"

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Abstract: Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and

Farmer adaptation, change and ‘crisis’ in the Sahel

Abstract: Perceptions of a continuing crisis in managing Sahelian resources are rooted in five dimensions of the Sahel Drought of 1972–1974 as it was understood at the time: crises in rainfall (drought), food supply, livestock management, environmental degradation, and household coping capabilities. A closer examination of household livelihood and farming systems shows that adaptive strategies have been evolved in response to each of these imperatives. Illustrations are provided from recent research in north–east Nigeria. A systematic understanding of indigenous adaptive capabilities can provide a basis for policies enabling a reduction of dependency on aid assistance in the Sahel.

The psychology of denial concerning climate mitigation measures: evidence from Swiss focus groups

Abstract: Various studies of public opinion regarding the causes and consequences of climate change reveal both a deep reservoir of concern, yet also a muddle over causes, consequences and appropriate policy measures for mitigation. The technique adopted here, namely integrated assessment (IA) focus groups, in which groups of randomly selected individuals in Switzerland looked at models of possible consequences of climate change and questioned specialists as to their accuracy and meaning, revealed a rich assembly of reactions. Respondents were alarmed about the consequences of high-energy futures, and molli"ed by images of low-energy futures. Yet they also erected a series of psychological barriers to justify why they should not act either individually or through collective institutions to mitigate climate change. From the viewpoint of changing their lifestyles of material comfort and high-energy dependence, they regarded the consequences of possible behavioural shift arising from the need to meet mitigation measures as more daunting. To overcome the dissonance created in their minds they created a number of socio-psychological denial mechanisms. Such mechanisms heightened the costs of shifting away from comfortable lifestyles, set blame on the inaction of others, including governments, and emphasised doubts regarding the immediacy of personal action when the e!ects of climate change seemed uncertain and far away. These "ndings suggest that more attention needs to be given to the social and psychological motivations as to why individuals erect barriers to their personal commitment to climate change mitigation, even when professing anxiety over climate futures. Prolonged and progressive packages of information tailored to cultural models or organised belief patterns, coupled to greater community based policy incentives may help to widen the basis of personal and moral responsibility. 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public understandings of air pollution: the localisation of environmental risk

Abstract: Recent perspectives on public understandings of global environmental risk have emphasised the interpretation, judgement and ‘sense-making’ that takes place, modes of perception that are inextricably tied to aspects of ‘local’ context. In this paper we offer a current picture of the ways in which residents think about the problem of urban air pollution. To do this we utilise elements of a wider research project involving a survey and in-depth interviews with members of the public. In this way — and drawing upon the prior air pollution perception literature and recent work in the field of environmental and risk perception — we present a more analytical interpretation than has hitherto been approached. Conclusions are drawn which stress the localisation of people's understandings within the immediate physical, social and cultural landscape and also through a trust in personal experiences over any kind of information-based evidence. From this position, and with the development of implications for policy, we demonstrate the need to study public perceptions if the objectives of air quality, and more generally, environmental management are to be achieved.

Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998

Abstract: The African Sahel provides the most dramatic example of multi-decadal climate variability that has been quantitatively and directly measured. Annual rainfall across this region fell by between 20 and 30 per cent between the decades leading up to political independence for the Sahelian nations (1930s to 1950s) and the decades since (1970s to 1990s). Climatic perspectives on the nature and causes of this period of desiccation have changed and, in some cases, matured as the years — and the drought — continued. This paper reviews these changing perspectives and reflects on three central questions: How unique an occurrence has been this desiccation in the recent human history of the Sahel? Can we find an adequate explanation for this desiccation in the natural forces that shape the climate system, or do we have to implicate human interventions in the system? Is our understanding of climate variability sufficient to allow us to develop seasonal rainfall forecasting capabilities for the region?

Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets

Abstract: Agreements to mitigate climate change have been hampered by several things, not least their cost. But the cost might well be more acceptable if we had a clear picture of what damages would be avoided by different levels of emissions reductions, in other words, a clear idea of the pay off. The problem is that we do not. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published this year (IPCC (2001a) and IPCC (2001b)) lists a wide range of potential impacts but has difficulty in discriminating between those that are critical in their nature and magnitude from those that are less important. Yet, the identification of critical impacts (e.g. ones that should be avoided at any reasonable cost) is obviously a key to addressing targets for mitigating climate change. Indeed, a central objective of the UN Framework Objective on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to avoid “dangerous levels” of climate change that could threaten food security, ecosystems and sustainable development (areas of risk that are specifically mentioned in UNFCCC Article 2). For several years, we have been researching impacts in key areas of risk: hunger, water shortage, exposure to malaria transmission, and coastal flooding, as part of a global fast-track assessment (Parry and Livermore, 1999). 1 The results of our work have been reported widely and form a significant part of the IPCC's assessment of likely impacts (IPCC (2001a) and IPCC (2001b)). But they are scattered through different parts of the IPCC report and other literature and, before now, we have not brought them together. For this review, we have graphed our estimates of effects as a single measure: the additional millions of people who could be placed at risk as a result of different amounts of global warming ( Fig. 1). Full-size image (36K) - Opens new window Full-size image (36K) Fig. 1. Additional millions at risk due to climate change in 2050s and 2080s for hunger, coastal flooding, water shortage and malaria. The width of the curve indicates one standard deviation of variance around the mean, based on results from four HadCM2 experiments (Parry and Livermore, 1999; IPCC, 2000). Solid lines indicate model-based estimates. Dotted lines are inferred ( IPCC (2001a) and IPCC, 2001b. Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, Geneva, 2001.IPCC (2001b)) and intended as schematic. Stab. 450 (etc.)=stabilisation@450 ppmv (etc.). View Within Article The figure shows the increase in millions at risk due to higher temperatures for two time periods—2050s and 2080s. The analysis takes into account likely non-climate developments such as growth in population, and income and developments of technology, and these become important assumptions behind future trends in, for example, increases in crop yield and the building of coastal defences. These developments themselves have very great effects on the numbers at risk and represent a (non-climate change) reference case. The graph thus shows the additional millions at risk due specifically to estimated future changes in climate. But now for the caveats: the reference case is only for one future world (what the IPCC used to call a best estimate or “business-as-usual” future, now referred to as IS92a). More recently, the IPCC has explored a set of six different developmental pathways that the world may follow (IPCC, 2000), and the millions at risk in these alternative futures will certainly differ. Our work on these is in hand but will probably take a year to complete. We need also to emphasise that the graph is a global estimate which hides important regional variations and, so far, it is based on one model of future climate patterns (the UK's Hadley Centre second generation global climate model) ( Johns et al., 1997). While these are the only global impact estimates currently available, we need urgently to complete similar ones for different climate models and for a variety of development pathways. Five important points emerge from this figure. First, the curves of additional millions at risk generally become steeper over time. Less obviously, this results as much from a larger and more vulnerable exposed population in 2080 than in 2050, as from increases in temperature or inferred changes in precipitation and sea-level rise. For example, the remarkable steepness of the water shortage curve in 2080 is the outcome of very large city populations in China and India becoming newly at risk. In the case of hunger, however, the rising curve in 2080 stems from widespread heat stress of crops, while up to about 2050 lesser amounts of warming lead to yield gains in temperate regions that balance losses elsewhere and lead to only small net increases in hunger (Parry and Livermore, 1999). These complex interactions between exposure and climate change tell a clear story: there will be more millions at risk as time progresses. Secondly, the figure indicates how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the numbers at risk. We have estimated effects assuming that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are stabilised at 750 parts per million (ppmv) by 2250 and at 550 ppmv by 2150 (Arnell, in press). These are approximately equivalent, respectively, to 10 times and 20 times the reduction in emissions assumed in the Kyoto Protocol. The 750 ppmv target delays the damage but does not avoid it. By 2080, it would halve the number at risk from hunger and flooding, reduce the population at risk of malaria by perhaps a third and water shortage by about a quarter. But to bring risk levels down from hundreds to tens of millions would require a stabilisation target of about 550 ppmv. We have also indicated on the graph, but only in a schematic form, the approximate locations of 450, 650 and 1000 ppmv stabilisation pathways and their effect on millions at risk (IPCC (2001a) and IPCC (2001b)). Although impact analyses have not yet been conducted for these stabilisation levels, it appears that the 450 ppmv pathway would achieve very great reductions in millions at risk, although very high costs of mitigation would be incurred. It is precisely this kind of pay-off that needs to be analysed properly. A third conclusion is that information is now available that can help inform the selection of climate change targets. Thus far these targets, such as Kyoto, have been chosen in broadly a top–down manner, without clear knowledge of the impacts that would be avoided, and that has been partly their weakness. Now we may argue, for example, that in order to keep damages below an agreed tolerable level (for example, a given number of additional people at risk) global temperature increases would need to be kept below a given amount; and emissions targets could then be developed to achieve that objective. Fourthly, it is clear that mitigation alone will not solve the problem of climate change. Adaptation will be necessary to avoid, or at least reduce, much of the possible damage, and since we need many of the benefits of adaptation today, regardless of climate change in the future (e.g. increased drought protection of agriculture, improved flood defences, more efficient use of water, better malaria control), many of the adaptive strategies for climate change can be “win–win”. We need to find a blend of mitigation and adaptation to meet the challenge of climate change. Mitigation can buy time for adaptation (for example, delaying impacts until improved technology and management can handle them), and adaptation can raise thresholds of tolerance that need to be avoided by mitigation (for example, by increasing drought tolerance of crops). Considered separately, they appear inadequate to meet such a challenge, but combined they would make a powerful response.

Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity

Abstract: This study estimates the relationship between farm level net-revenue and climate variables in India using cross-sectional evidence. Using the observed reactions of farmers, the study seeks to understand how they have adapted to different climatic conditions across India. District level data is used for the analysis. The study also explores the influence of annual weather and crop prices on the climate response function. The estimated climate response function is used to assess the possible impacts of a ‘best-guess’ climate change scenario on Indian agriculture.

Decline of forest area in Sabah, Malaysia : Relationship to state policies, land code and land capability

Abstract: Forest decline in Sabah has resulted from state policies operating within the federal context. Approximately two-thirds of Sabah's natural forest remains but estimates vary with the data source. Logging and shifting cultivation have degraded forest quality but commercial estate agriculture, especially oil palm, is now the major cause of forest loss, aided by Sabah's land tenure code and the ethnic equality and modernisation agendas of national and state agriculture policy. The pattern of forest decline is explained by partitioning of the land resource between gazetted Forest Reserves and land alienated to agriculture, guided by the 1976 land capability classification.

Sahel pastoralists: opportunism, struggle, conflict and negotiation. A case study from eastern Niger

Abstract: The livelihoods and life chances of pastoral communities in the West African Sahel are linked to: the complexity of the activities they must engage in to insure access to resources; to the nature of conflicts and co-operation between ethnic groups; to the inconsistent role of the state in assisting or constraining pastoral livelihoods; and to the negative discourse surrounding pastoralism that still circulates in some government and development policy circles The paper reviews pastoral livelihoods systems in eastern Niger to illustrate changing modes of access to water and pasture, culminating in present-day tensions and conflict between pastoral groups State development efforts to provide secure watering points for pastoral herds have initiated social conflicts and violence, rather than creating security No viable solution has yet been found to control the use of public wells and boreholes Enabling frameworks for negotiation and conflict resolution must be developed locally, and centrally enforced in this, and many other regions of uncertain climatic change and overlapping systems of resource exploitation

Desertification in reverse? Observations from northern Burkina Faso

Abstract: The idea of degradation of arid and semi-arid lands, often termed desertification in its irreversible form, due to human impact and/or climatic change has been much debated since the mid-1970s. From the time of the United Nation's Conference On Desertification in Nairobi, 1976, certain areas of northern Burkina Faso have been pointed out as examples of severe desertification. Several studies demonstrated that revitalization of a series of E–W oriented fossille dunes in the Oudalan province was ongoing. The present study includes an analysis of the trends of vegetation development in the region, covering the period 1955 to 1994, with emphasis on the fossile dunes. It is demonstrated that desertification and revitalization of dunes were phenomena associated with the period between the early 1970s and the mid-1980s, and that the decline in vegetation cover on the dunes seems to have been reversed in recent years. The analysis is based upon time series of aerial photos and satellite images, field studies of vegetation, interviews with local people and review of relevant literature. The findings are discussed with reference to the debate concerning desertification and land degradation, as well as to the current revisions of the ‘range management paradigm’. The observations indicate that the environmental history of the region is complex and cannot be boiled down to ‘human-induced irreversible degradation’. Rather they support the idea of semi-arid cultural landscapes undergoing constant change in response to both human impact and climatic trends and fluctuations.

The African Sahel 25 years after the great drought: assessing progress and moving towards new agendas and approaches

Abstract: This paper introduces a special issue of Global Environmental Change: Human dimensions on the Sahel of West Africa. It reviews the seminar to which the papers were presented, and brings together some conclusions. Despite the quarter century of research into the West African Sahel that followed the great droughts of the 1970s, there are still strong disagreements about how to achieve more prosperous, yet sustainable livelihood systems in the region. There are conflicts between those who believe in indigenous capacities to maintain rural livelihoods, those who believe that various forms of external support are necessary, and those wedded to a vision of a Sahel directed by regional urban growth. Under economic and cultural globalisation, the future of this region is, at best, unclear. The papers in this collection do agree that Sahelian environments are diverse, and that Sahelian people cultivate and exploit diversity and flexibility. They also suggest that there are no quick-fix development solutions, except to build upon this historical diversity with renewed purpose.

Resource limitations in Sahelian agriculture

Abstract: In general, Africa has poor soils and unfavorable climates for agriculture. This is specially so in the Sahel of West Africa. Moreover, poor infrastructure means that fertilizer prices are higher in the Sahel than in Europe. Sahelian farmers have few incentives to maintain, let alone improve output. Nonetheless, the results of field experiments show that there are methods by which they could do this, in particular, by improving soil organic matter status, since this is often the principal way in which N, P and K are held in the soil. In the general absence of good policies to encourage fertility improvement, the Lome workshop set goals for national fertilizer plans.

Societies and nature in the Sahel: ecological diversity and social dynamics

Abstract: This paper, based on the results of a comprehensive interdisciplinary research programme focused on five countries of the Western Sahel, suggests a framework for analysing the complex and constantly changing dynamics of the relations that Sahelian societies maintain with their environment. Firstly, tools for understanding local variability are required. Demographic variables and the diversity of the modes of land use are combined to show that the type and intensity of exploitation of natural resources varies dramatically from one locality to another. There are significant differences between Sahelian social systems and cultures, and these influence their relations with the ‘nature’ they exploit and transform. Secondly, understanding social, economical and technical changes in the Sahel requires that we recognise that powerful and conflicting processes of transformation are taking place (in contrast to the image of “tradition” widely associated with Sahelian societies). These changes are found to be the result of an interaction between the state, rural producers, urban speculators, international development agencies, and other actors. Practical lessons emerge from the analysis. Access and negotiation over natural resources must be facilitated between many actors who compete for them, and local social and environmental problems must be seen in the context of broader patterns of influence and change. The State will retain its importance in the region. “Participation” in development must not only involve local “populations”, but also the “developers” of all types, in contributing to and understanding the human dimensions of environmental change in the Sahel.

Adaptation options for the near term: climate change and the Canadian water sector

Abstract: Climate change poses significant challenges for the Canadian water sector. This paper discusses issues relating to the selection of proactive, planned adaptation measures for the near term (next decade). A set of selection criteria is offered, and these are used in three cases to illustrate how stakeholders can identify measures appropriate for the near term. Cases include municipal water supply in the Grand River basin, Ontario; irrigation in southern Alberta; and commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. In all three cases, it is possible to identify adaptations to climate change that also represent appropriate responses to existing conditions; these should be pursued first.

Soil erosion in the West African Sahel: a review and an application of a "local political ecology" approach in South West Niger.

Abstract: A review of soil erosion research in the West African Sahel finds that there are insufficient data on which to base policy. This is largely because of the difficulties of measuring erosion and the other components of “soil life”, and because of the highly spatially and temporarily variable natural and social environment of the Sahel. However, a “local political ecology” of soil erosion and new methodologies offer some hope of overcoming these problems. Nonetheless, a major knowledge gap will remain, about how rates of erosion are accommodated and appraised within very variable social and economic conditions. An example from recent field work in Niger shows that erosion is correlated with factors such as male migration, suggesting, in this case, that households with access to non-farm income adopt a risk-avoidance strategy in which soil erosion is accelerated incidentally. It is concluded that there needs to be more research into the relations between erosion and socio-economic factors, and clearer thinking about the meaning of sustainability as it refers to soil erosion in the Sahel.

Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design

Abstract: Environmental assessments generate and/or collect individual research efforts to answer policy-relevant questions and otherwise provide technical advice to decision-makers, typically legislators, international negotiators and regulators. Though one might think first of assessments in terms of the reports that they often produce, the implications of scientific assessment are better understood by viewing assessments as a social processes, rather than principally as a document. Assessment processes are embedded in different sorts of institutional settings, within which scientists, decision-makers, and advocates communicate to define relevant questions for analysis, mobilize certain kinds of experts and expertise, and interpret findings in particular ways. This social process perspective on assessment directs attention beyond the content of assessment reports to encompass questions the design of the social process. In this paper, we focus on four elements of assessment design that are too frequently under-appreciated: assessment context and initiation, science–policy interaction, participation in assessment processes, and assessment capacity. We show how widely these elements vary across five different assessments and discuss the implications of this variation.

Deforestation, distribution and development

Abstract: This paper investigates the role played by distributional factors in mediating the effects of growth and development on forest depletion in tropical developing countries. A key finding of the paper is that the distributional profile of a country significantly determines whether economic development will have either a positive or a negative effect on the rate of forest loss. In countries where levels of inequality are high, development will tend to exacerbate deforestation rates while in countries where distributional profiles are more egalitarian, the negative effects of growth and development on forest cover will be ameliorated.

The Sahel in West Africa: countries in transition to a full market economy

Abstract: A dominant image of the West African Sahel is one of periodic, and sometimes permanent crisis in terms of food production, environmental degradation, provision of public services and education, and widespread poverty. Recent research, including the West Africa Long-Term Perspective Study (WALTPS) study, offers modifications to this view. Close observation demonstrates that the Sahel, far from stagnating, is undergoing profound change, which may take the form of progress in some areas, and crisis or even regression in others. Two changes of note are the 10-fold increase of the population within the span of a century, and the opening up of the region to the world economy, as globalization advances. These two factors are radically altering West African systems of production and are forcing States and civil society to change radically and quickly. The paper argues that, as has been the case for many other developing regions of the world, intra-regional and domestic migration, urbanization and the densification of population are necessary conditions for the transformation of agriculture, and contribute to long-term regional food security and to the improvement of living standards. Encouraging free circulation of people, goods and services requires that the Sahelian nations not be considered in isolation from the rest of the continent, as it is too often the case.

The population–agriculture–environment nexus in the Malian cotton zone

Abstract: Since the late 1950s, production of both cash-crop cotton and food crops has increased immensely in the Malian cotton zone. The response of farmers to external incentives or obstacles has been swift. In an opportunistic way, farmers seem to seek immediate and maximum profits. This has been particularly evident with the boom in both cotton and food crop production after the devaluation of the CFA franc in January 1994. Such reactions support the idea that it is not only African pastoral production systems which are non-equilibrial and opportunistic, but that this also characterises farming communities. Furthermore, the agricultural development in the cotton zone is regularly said to cause serious environmental degradation mainly through deforestation and soil depletion. The paper questions this view. The environmental transformation taking place is analysed, but whether this transformation represents ‘degradation’ or ‘improvement’ is largely a normative question subject to the values and environmental perceptions of the individual actors.

No regrets?: Economy and environment in Australia's domestic climate change policy process

Abstract: This paper explores Australia's domestic response to the issue of climate change, and charts the evolution of ‘no-regrets’ as the guiding principle for policy development. The concept of no-regrets encapsulates the ecologically modern idea that addressing environmental problems can bring economic, as well as social and environmental, benefits. It is argued that the degree of reconciliation between environmental and economic objectives achieved has been made possible through a progressive narrowing of the scales over which costs and benefits are weighed, and the exclusion of the non-material benefits of the environment. Tensions between addressing climate change and continuing business as usual, which are far from unique to Australia, remain and continue to limit effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Big science, small impacts—in the South? The influence of global environmental assessments on expert communities in India

Abstract: To help decision-makers cope with the uncertainty of global environmental change, transnational networks of experts have offered numerous assessments of the state of knowledge, often advertised as consensus of “international science”. Substantial social science research has already analysed the effects of such global environmental assessments on industrialized countries; this study explores their influence in India as a pivotal developing country. It appears that although global environmental assessments did not remain without any influence in India, their effect is still small. These limitations could be addressed, it is argued, by increasing the usefulness and legitimacy of global environmental assessments in the South through stronger consideration of the socio-economic context of developing countries and other Southern concerns and interests, by raising the participation of Southern experts, by enhancing research capacities in and communication links to the South, and by ensuring that global environmental assessments are organized as self-adaptive processes, such as IPCC, and not as one-shot effort, such as the Global Biodiversity Assessment.

Ecosystem management, decentralization, and public opinion

Abstract: In recent years there has been a movement by administrators and policymakers across the country to reorganize and reinvent government to improve program efficiencies, to harness resources outside government in the service of public policy goals, and to better facilitate the input of affected interests and the general public. Central to this effort are innovative, decentralized institutional arrangements which delegate significant authority either to private citizens, program managers within existing bureaucracy, or market-based mechanisms. Ecosystem- and watershed-based management, which seek to both prevent pollution and sustain development, are in the vanguard of this movement. This paper examines this trend toward decentralizing environmental policy and the use of ecosystem management from the perspective of the public. Planning and implementation of devolved environmental policy will require the support of local stakeholders and citizens. Using data from a national public opinion survey conducted during the summer of 1998, the paper examines factors associated with public acceptability of ecosystem management and the preferred level of government and citizen participation that should be involved in the implementation of such management strategies.

RETRACTED: An overview of guidelines and issues for the monitoring, evaluation, reporting, verification, and certification of forestry projects for climate change mitigation

Abstract: This article has been retracted at the request of the Editors. Please see Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal ( http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy ). Reason: This article is a duplicate of a paper that has already been published in Environ. Sci. Policy , 3 (2000) 99–113, doi: 10.1016/S1462-9011(00)00076-9 . One of the conditions of submission of a paper for publication is that authors declare explicitly that the paper is not under consideration for publication elsewhere. As such this article represents a severe abuse of the scientific publishing system. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and we apologize to readers of the journal that this was not detected during the submission process.

Institutions in conflict? the climate change flexibility mechanisms and the multinational trading system

Abstract: In an attempt to combat climate change on a global scale, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in conjunction with a wide range of policies both at national and international level. In particular, flexibility mechanisms-emissions trading system, joint implementation (JI) and clean development mechanism (CDM)-were incorporated in the Protocol to fulfil the commitment of the Parties by utilising a market system. Under the flexibility mechanisms, an artificial market is created in which the emission allowances or emission reduction units are traded. Not surprisingly, such measures might result in significant impacts on the trade of both goods and services, presumably creating the most complex and dynamic interaction with the Multilateral Trading System (MTS) which is overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). If the implementation of flexibility mechanisms is identified as inconsistent with the requirements of the MTS, enforcement of such policies may prove difficult due to constraints imposed by GATT/WTO provisions. The purpose of this article is to scrutinise potential incompatibility between the implementation of flexibility mechanisms and GATT/WTO provisions. The rules governing the implementation of flexibility mechanisms have yet to be decided due to the divergent views of States regarding the design of the mechanisms. Thus, the analysis of the interaction will be undertaken based on hypothetical scenarios of each mechanism to account for all possible consequences of their implementation. Such an analysis will facilitate detection of any potential conflicts between the implementation of flexibility mechanisms and the trade regimes in advance, thus encompassing the potential incompatibility in designing the mechanisms and helping achieve increasingly effective implementation of flexibility mechanisms.

National framework for inter-linkages: bridging problems and solutions to work toward the further implementation of agenda 21

Abstract: UNU Monitor is a quarterly review of the United Nations University’s (UNU) current research activities, publications and forthcoming projects in the area of environment and sustainable development. This issue features an article by Dr. Jerry Velasquez of UNU. This article describes the national framework development for the United Nations University’s Interlinkages Initiative. The Inter-linkages Initiative was the topic of a previous GEC article. For further information regarding the Initiative contact Dr. Jerry Velasquez, UNU Global Environment Information Centre, UNU/GEIC (E-mail: jerry@geic.or.jp, fax: +81-3-34078164).

Searching for baselines constructing joint implementation project emission reductions

Abstract: Joint implementation of emission reductions by countries is an important component of the Kyoto Protocol. The calculation of emission reductions from projects requires the definition of baselines that describe what would have happened in the absence of the JI projects. Baselines do not occur and are described as counterfactual. This paper applies a sociological perspective to analyse the arguments used to support different baselines by the actors involved in climate change policy. It concludes that environmental arguments should be given prominence in how baselines are defined to ensure that the environmental objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change are preserved.