Showing papers in "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences in 2006"

Measuring methods for groundwater – surface water interactions: a review

Abstract: . Interactions between groundwater and surface water play a fundamental role in the functioning of riparian ecosystems. In the context of sustainable river basin management it is crucial to understand and quantify exchange processes between groundwater and surface water. Numerous well-known methods exist for parameter estimation and process identification in aquifers and surface waters. Only in recent years has the transition zone become a subject of major research interest; thus, the need has evolved for appropriate methods applicable in this zone. This article provides an overview of the methods that are currently applied and described in the literature for estimating fluxes at the groundwater – surface water interface. Considerations for choosing appropriate methods are given including spatial and temporal scales, uncertainties, and limitations in application. It is concluded that a multi-scale approach combining multiple measuring methods may considerably constrain estimates of fluxes between groundwater and surface water.

On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in Budyko's hydrological model

Abstract: . The Budyko curve describes the patterns observed between between climate, evapotranspiration and run-off and has proven to be a useful model for predicting catchment energy and water balances. In this paper we review the Budyko curve's underlying framework and, based on the literature, present an argument for why it is important to include vegetation dynamics into the framework for some purposes. The Budyko framework assumes catchments are at steady-state and are driven by the macro-climate, two conditions dependent on the scales of application, such that the framework's reliability is greatest when applied using long-term averages (≫1 year) and to large catchments (>10 000 km2). At these scales previous experience has shown that the hydrological role of vegetation does not need to be explicitly considered within the framework. By demonstrating how dynamics in the leaf area, photosynthetic capacity and rooting depth of vegetation affect not only annual and seasonal vegetation water use, but also steady-state conditions, we argue that it is necessary to explicitly include vegetation dynamics into the Budyko framework before it is applied at small scales. Such adaptations would extend the framework not only to applications at small timescales and/or small catchments but to operational activities relating to vegetation and water management.

Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

Abstract: . This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1) local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST), (2) regional sensitivity analysis (RSA), (3) analysis of variance (ANOVA), and (4) Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA) coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments

Abstract: . The parameters of hydrological models for catchments with few or no discharge records can be estimated using regional information. One can assume that catchments with similar characteristics show a similar hydrological behaviour and thus can be modeled using similar model parameters. Therefore a regionalisation of the hydrological model parameters on the basis of catchment characteristics is plausible. However, due to the non-uniqueness of the rainfall-runoff model parameters (equifinality), a workflow of regional parameter estimation by model calibration and a subsequent fit of a regional function is not appropriate. In this paper a different approach for the transfer of entire parameter sets from one catchment to another is discussed. Parameter sets are considered as tranferable if the corresponding model performance (defined as the Nash-Sutclife efficiency) on the donor catchment is good and the regional statistics: means and variances of annual discharges estimated from catchment properties and annual climate statistics for the recipient catchment are well reproduced by the model. The methodology is applied to a set of 16 catchments in the German part of the Rhine catchments. Results show that the parameters transfered according to the above criteria perform well on the target catchments.

Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables

Abstract: . In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable when it is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed from the economic literature, which are addressed to verify the statistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. We illustrate our findings with a detailed application to the evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourly discharge values.

Uncertainties associated with digital elevation models for hydrologic applications: a review

Abstract: . Digital elevation models (DEMs) represent the topography that drives surface flow and are arguably one of the more important data sources for deriving variables used by numerous hydrologic models. A considerable amount of research has been conducted to address uncertainty associated with error in digital elevation models (DEMs) and the propagation of error to derived terrain parameters. This review brings together a discussion of research in fundamental topical areas related to DEM uncertainty that affect the use of DEMs for hydrologic applications. These areas include: (a) DEM error; (b) topographic parameters frequently derived from DEMs and the associated algorithms used to derive these parameters; (c) the influence of DEM scale as imposed by grid cell resolution; (d) DEM interpolation; and (e) terrain surface modification used to generate hydrologically-viable DEM surfaces. Each of these topical areas contributes to DEM uncertainty and may potentially influence results of distributed parameter hydrologic models that rely on DEMs for the derivation of input parameters. The current state of research on methods developed to quantify DEM uncertainty is reviewed. Based on this review, implications of DEM uncertainty and suggestions for the GIS research and user communities are offered.

Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land

Abstract: . In this paper the basic geophysical and ecological principles are jointly analyzed that allow the landmasses of Earth to remain moistened sufficiently for terrestrial life to be possible. 1. Under gravity, land inevitably loses water to the ocean. To keep land moistened, the gravitational water runoff must be continuously compensated by the atmospheric ocean-to-land moisture transport. Using data for five terrestrial transects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Program we show that the mean distance to which air fluxes can transport moisture over non-forested areas, does not exceed several hundred kilometers; precipitation decreases exponentially with distance from the ocean. 2. In contrast, precipitation over extensive natural forests does not depend on the distance from the ocean along several thousand kilometers, as illustrated for the Amazon and Yenisey river basins and Equatorial Africa. This points to the existence of an active biotic pump transporting atmospheric moisture inland from the ocean. 3. Physical principles of the biotic moisture pump are investigated based on the previously unstudied properties of atmospheric water vapor, which can be either in or out of aerostatic equilibrium depending on the lapse rate of air temperature. A novel physical principle is formulated according to which the low-level air moves from areas with weak evaporation to areas with more intensive evaporation. Due to the high leaf area index, natural forests maintain high evaporation fluxes, which support the ascending air motion over the forest and "suck in" moist air from the ocean, which is the essence of the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture. In the result, the gravitational runoff water losses from the optimally moistened forest soil can be fully compensated by the biotically enhanced precipitation at any distance from the ocean. 4. It is discussed how a continent-scale biotic water pump mechanism could be produced by natural selection acting on individual trees. 5. Replacement of the natural forest cover by a low leaf index vegetation leads to an up to tenfold reduction in the mean continental precipitation and runoff, in contrast to the previously available estimates made without accounting for the biotic moisture pump. The analyzed body of evidence testifies that the long-term stability of an intense terrestrial water cycle is unachievable without the recovery of natural, self-sustaining forests on continent-wide areas.

Water discharge and sediment flux changes over the past decades in the Lower Mekong River: possible impacts of the Chinese dams

Abstract: . The Lower Mekong River has witnessed extremely low water levels over the past few years. There is speculation that the changes are a consequence of the construction and operation of the Chinese cascade dams in the upper part of the Mekong main stream, the Lancang River. Dam construction on upper streams can produce a series of induced effects downstream, particularly in terms of water, sediment, channel and ecological changes. Analyses of discharge and sediment flux at various gauging stations on the Lower Mekong River have indicated a disruption in water discharge, water fluctuations and sediment transport downstream of the first Chinese dam among the 8 cascades (i.e. the Manwan Dam), after its reservoir was infilled in 1992. Dry season flows showed a declining trend, and water level fluctuations in the dry season increased considerably in the post-dam (1993–2000) period. Monthly suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has also decreased significantly in several gauging stations in the post-dam period. The estimation of sediment flux is challenging since the measurements of SSC were sporadic. Our estimation based on the available data indicated that the areas along the upper-middle and lowermost reaches of the Mekong River have experienced a decline in sediment flux, possibly due to sedimentation in the Manwan Dam. However, the decrease is only statistically significant at the nearest gauging station below the Dam (i.e. Chiang Saen). Areas located in the mid-length of the river show less sensitivity to the operation of the Manwan Dam, as sediment fluxes have remained stable or even increased in the post-dam period.

Virtual water trade: an assessment of water use efficiency in the international food trade

Abstract: . Amid an increasing water scarcity in many parts of the world, virtual water trade as both a policy instrument and practical means to balance the local, national and global water budget has received much attention in recent years. Building upon the knowledge of virtual water accounting in the literature, this study assesses the efficiency of water use embodied in the international food trade from the perspectives of exporting and importing countries and at the global and country levels. The investigation reveals that the virtual water flows primarily from countries of high crop water productivity to countries of low crop water productivity, generating a global saving in water use. Meanwhile, the total virtual water trade is dominated by green virtual water, which constitutes a low opportunity cost of water use as opposed to blue virtual water. A sensitivity analysis, however, suggests high uncertainties in the virtual water accounting and the estimation of the scale of water saving. The study also raises awareness of the limited effect of water scarcity on the global virtual water trade and the negative implications of the global water saving for the water use efficiency and food security in importing countries and the environment in exporting countries. The analysis shows the complexity in evaluating the efficiency gains in the international virtual water trade. The findings of the study, nevertheless, call for a greater emphasis on rainfed agriculture to improve the global food security and environmental sustainability.

Validation of MODIS snow cover images over Austria

Abstract: . This study evaluates the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product over the territory of Austria. The aims are (a) to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the MODIS snow product classes, (b) to examine the accuracy of the MODIS snow product against in situ snow depth data, and (c) to identify the main factors that may influence the MODIS classification accuracy. We use daily MODIS grid maps (version 4) and daily snow depth measurements at 754 climate stations in the period from February 2000 to December 2005. The results indicate that, on average, clouds obscured 63% of Austria, which may significantly restrict the applicability of the MODIS snow cover images to hydrological modelling. On cloud-free days, however, the classification accuracy is very good with an average of 95%. There is no consistent relationship between the classification errors and dominant land cover type and local topographical variability but there are clear seasonal patterns to the errors. In December and January the errors are around 15% while in summer they are less than 1%. This seasonal pattern is related to the overall percentage of snow cover in Austria, although in spring, when there is a well developed snow pack, errors tend to be smaller than they are in early winter for the same overall percent snow cover. Overestimation and underestimation errors balance during most of the year which indicates little bias. In November and December, however, there appears to exist a tendency for overestimation. Part of the errors may be related to the temporal shift between the in situ snow depth measurements (07:00 a.m.) and the MODIS acquisition time (early afternoon). The comparison of daily air temperature maps with MODIS snow cover images indicates that almost all MODIS overestimation errors are caused by the misclassification of cirrus clouds as snow.

Characterization of spatial heterogeneity of groundwater-stream water interactions using multiple depth streambed temperature measurements at the reach scale

Abstract: . Streambed temperatures can be easily, accurately and inexpensively measured at many locations. To characterize patterns of groundwater-stream water interaction with a high spatial resolution, we measured 140 vertical streambed temperature profiles along a 220 m section of a small man-made stream. Groundwater temperature at a sufficient depth remains nearly constant while stream water temperatures vary seasonally and diurnally. In summer, streambed temperatures of groundwater discharge zones are relatively colder than downwelling zones of stream water. Assuming vertical flow in the streambed, the observed temperatures are correlated to the magnitude of water fluxes. The water fluxes are then estimated by applying a simple analytical solution of the heat conduction-advection equation to the observed vertical temperature profiles. The calculated water fluxes through the streambed ranged between 455 Lm−2 d−1 of groundwater discharging to the stream and approximately 10 Lm−2 d−1 of stream water entering the streambed. The investigated reach was dominated by groundwater discharge with two distinct high discharge locations accounting for 50% of the total flux on 20% of the reach length.

Eco-geomorphology of banded vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid regions

Abstract: . The interaction between vegetation and hydrologic processes is particularly tight in water-limited environments where a positive-feedback links soil moisture and vegetation. The vegetation of these systems is commonly patterned, that is, arranged in a two phase mosaic composed of patches with high biomass cover interspersed within a low-cover or bare soil component. These patterns are strongly linked to the redistribution of runoff and resources from source areas (bare patches) to sink areas (vegetation patches) and play an important role in controlling erosion. In this paper, the dynamics of these systems is investigated using a new modeling framework that couples landform and vegetation evolution, explicitly accounting for the dynamics of runon-runoff areas. The objective of this study is to analyze water-limited systems on hillslopes with mild slopes, in which overland flow occurs predominantly in only one direction and vegetation displays a banded pattern. Our simulations reproduce bands that can be either stationary or upstream migrating depending on the magnitude of the runoff-induced seed dispersal. We also found that stationary banded systems redistribute sediment so that a stepped microtopography is developed. The modelling results are the first to incorporate the effects of runoff redistribution and variable infiltration rates on the development of both the vegetation patterns and microtopography. The microtopography for stationary bands is characterized by bare soil on the lower gradient areas and vegetation on steeper gradients areas. For the case of migrating vegetation bands the model generates hillslope profiles with planar topography. The success at generating not only the observed patterns of vegetation, but also patterns of runoff and sediment redistribution suggests that the hydrologic and erosion mechanisms represented in the model are correctly capturing some of the key processes driving these ecosystems.

Evolutionary geomorphology: thresholds and nonlinearity in landform response to environmental change

Abstract: . Geomorphic systems are typically nonlinear, owing largely to their threshold-dominated nature (but due to other factors as well). Nonlinear geomorphic systems may exhibit complex behaviors not possible in linear systems, including dynamical instability and deterministic chaos. The latter are common in geomorphology, indicating that small, short-lived changes may produce disproportionately large and long-lived results; that evidence of geomorphic change may not reflect proportionally large external forcings; and that geomorphic systems may have multiple potential response trajectories or modes of adjustment to change. Instability and chaos do not preclude predictability, but do modify the context of predictability. The presence of chaotic dynamics inhibits or excludes some forms of predicability and prediction techniques, but does not preclude, and enables, others. These dynamics also make spatial and historical contingency inevitable: geography and history matter. Geomorphic systems are thus governed by a combination of "global" laws, generalizations and relationships that are largely (if not wholly) independent of time and place, and "local" place and/or time-contingent factors. The more factors incorporated in the representation of any geomorphic system, the more singular the results or description are. Generalization is enhanced by reducing rather than increasing the number of factors considered. Prediction of geomorphic responses calls for a recursive approach whereby global laws and local contingencies are used to constrain each other. More specifically a methodology whereby local details are embedded within simple but more highly general phenomenological models is advocated. As landscapes and landforms change in response to climate and other forcings, it cannot be assumed that geomorphic systems progress along any particular pathway. Geomorphic systems are evolutionary in the sense of being path dependent, and historically and geographically contingent. Assessing and predicting geomorphic responses obliges us to engage these contingencies, which often arise from nonlinear complexities. We are obliged, then, to practice evolutionary geomorphology: an approach to the study of surface processes and landforms which recognizes multiple possible historical pathways rather than an inexorable progression toward some equilbribrium state or along a cyclic pattern.

Searching for the Holy Grail of scientific hydrology: Q t =( S, R, Δt ) A as closure

Abstract: . Representative Elementary Watershed concepts provide a useful scale-independent framework for the representation of hydrological processes. The balance equations that underlie the concepts, however, require the definition of boundary flux closures that should be expected to be scale dependent. The relationship between internal state variables of an REW element and the boundary fluxes will be nonlinear, hysteretic and scale-dependent and may depend on the extremes of the heterogeneities within the REW. Because of the nonlinearities involved, simple averaging of local scale flux relationships are unlikely to produce an adequate decription of the closure problem at the REW scale. Hysteresis in the dynamic response is demonstrated for some small experimental catchments and it is suggested that at least some of this hysteresis can be represented by the use of simple transfer functions. The search for appropriate closure schemes is the second most important problem in hydrology of the 21st Century (the most important is providing the techniques to measure integrated fluxes and storages at useful scales). The closure problem is a scientific Holy Grail: worth searching for even if a general solution might ultimate prove impossible to find.

Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts

Abstract: . Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa), issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.

Development of the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale

Abstract: . Environment Canada has been developing a community environmental modelling system (Modelisation Environmentale Communautaire – MEC), which is designed to facilitate coupling between models focusing on different components of the earth system. The ultimate objective of MEC is to use the coupled models to produce operational forecasts. MESH (MEC – Surface and Hydrology), a configuration of MEC currently under development, is specialized for coupled land-surface and hydrological models. To determine the specific requirements for MESH, its different components were implemented on the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, situated on the Canada-US border. This experiment showed that MESH can help us better understand the behaviour of different land-surface models, test different schemes for producing ensemble streamflow forecasts, and provide a means of sharing the data, the models and the results with collaborators and end-users. This modelling framework is at the heart of a testbed proposal for the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) which should allow us to make use of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) to improve streamflow forecasts of the Great Lakes tributaries, and demonstrate how MESH can contribute to a Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS).

Rainfall threshold for hillslope outflow: an emergent property of flow pathway connectivity

Abstract: . Nonlinear relations between rain input and hillslope outflow are common observations in hillslope hydrology field studies. In this paper we use percolation theory to model the threshold relationship between rainfall amount and outflow and show that this nonlinear relationship may arise from simple linear processes at the smaller scale. When the rainfall amount exceeds a threshold value, the underlying elements become connected and water flows out of the base of the hillslope. The percolation approach shows how random variations in storage capacity and connectivity at the small spatial scale cause a threshold relationship between rainstorm amount and hillslope outflow. As a test case, we applied percolation theory to the well characterized experimental hillslope at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed. Analysing the measured rainstorm events and the subsurface stormflow with percolation theory, we could determine the effect of bedrock permeability, spatial distribution of soil properties and initial water content within the hillslope. The measured variation in the relationship between rainstorm amount and subsurface flow could be reproduced by modelling the initial moisture deficit, the loss of free water to the bedrock, the limited size of the system and the connectivity that is a function of bedrock topography and existence of macropores. The values of the model parameters were in agreement with measured values of soil depth distribution and water saturation.

Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions

Abstract: . A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.

Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

Abstract: The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation.

A New Method for Determination of Most Likely Landslide Initiation Points and the Evaluation of Digital Terrain Model Scale in Terrain Stability Mapping

Abstract: . This paper introduces a new approach for determining the most likely initiation points for landslides from potential instability mapped using a terrain stability model. This approach identifies the location with critical stability index from a terrain stability model on each downslope path from ridge to valley. Any measure of terrain stability may be used with this approach, which here is illustrated using results from SINMAP, and from simply taking slope as an index of potential instability. The relative density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslide scars provides a way to evaluate the effectiveness of a terrain stability measure, even when mapped landslide scars include run out zones, rather than just initiation locations. This relative density was used to evaluate the utility of high resolution terrain data derived from airborne laser altimetry (LIDAR) for a small basin located in the Northeastern Region of Italy. Digital Terrain Models were derived from the LIDAR data for a range of grid cell sizes (from 2 to 50 m). We found appreciable differences between the density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslides with ratios as large as three or more with the highest ratios for a digital terrain model grid cell size of 10 m. This leads to two conclusions: (1) The relative density from a most likely landslide initiation point approach is useful for quantifying the effectiveness of a terrain stability map when mapped landslides do not or can not differentiate between initiation, runout, and depositional areas; and (2) in this study area, where landslides occurred in complexes that were sometimes more than 100 m wide, a digital terrain model scale of 10 m is optimal. Digital terrain model scales larger than 10 m result in loss of resolution that degrades the results, while for digital terrain model scales smaller than 10 m the physical processes responsible for triggering landslides are obscured by smaller scale terrain variability.

Formation of runoff at the hillslope scale during intense precipitation

Abstract: . On 60 m2 hillslope plots, at 18 mainly grassland locations in Switzerland rain was applied at rates of 50–100 mm/h for between 3 and 6 h. The generated flows were measured, including overland flow, near surface and subsurface flow 0.5–1.3 m below the surface. At some locations less than 2% of the rain flowed down the slope either on or below the surface, whereas at some others more than 90% of the rain ran off. At the majority of sites most runoff was overland flow, though at a few sites subsurface flow, usually via macropores was dominant. Data collected during each of 48 high intensity sprinkling experiments were used to distinguish, which processes were dominant in each experiment. Which dominant and subsidiary processes occurred depended on interactions between infiltration rate, change in soil water storage and drainage of the soil water. These attributes were often not directly linked to parameters usually considered important like vegetation, slope, soil clay content and antecedent soil moisture. Considering the structure of the soil in combination with these attributes, process determination was in many cases fairly straightforward, indicating the possibility of reliably predicting runoff processes at a site. However, at some sites, effects occurred that were not easily recognizable and led to surprising results.

Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model

Abstract: We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as well as on its effect on the general hydrological behavior of the catchment. The study is performed in a flat rural catchment (135 km2) in The Netherlands, where climate is semi-humid (average precipitation 800 mm/year, evapotranspiration 550 mm/year) and rainfall is predominantly stratiform. Both range-corrected radar data (resolution 2.5×2.5 km2) as well as data from a dense network of 30 raingauges are used, observed for the period March-October 2004. Eight different rainfall scenarios, either spatially distributed or spatially uniform, are used as input for the hydrological model. The main conclusions from this study are: (i) using a single raingauge as rainfall input carries a great risk for the prediction of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture, especially if the raingauge is situated outside the catchment; (ii) taking into account the spatial variability of rainfall instead of using areal average rainfall as input for the model is needed to get insight into the day-to-day spatial variability of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture content; (iii) to get insight into the general behavior of the hydrological system it is sufficient to use correct predictions of areal average rainfall over the catchment.

Curvature distribution within hillslopes and catchments and its effect on the hydrological response

Abstract: . Topographic convergence and divergence are first order controls on the hillslope and catchment hydrological response, as evidenced by similarity parameter analyses. Hydrological models often do not take convergence as measured by contour curvature directly into account; instead they use comparable measures like the topographic index, or the hillslope width function. This paper focuses on the question how hillslope width functions and contour curvature are related within the Plynlimon catchments, Wales. It is shown that the total width function of all hillslopes combined suggest that the catchments are divergent in overall shape, which is in contrast to the perception that catchments should be overall convergent. This so-called convergence paradox is explained by the effect of skewed curvature distributions and extreme curvatures near the channel network. The hillslope-storage Bossiness (hsB) model is used to asses the effect of within-hillslope convergence variability on the hydrological response. It is concluded that this effect is small, even when the soil saturation threshold is exceeded. Also described in this paper is a novel algorithm to compute flow path lengths on hillslopes towards the drainage network, using the multidirectional flow redistribution method.

Identifying runoff processes on the plot and catchment scale

Abstract: . Rainfall-runoff models that adequately represent the real hydrological processes and that do not have to be calibrated, are needed in hydrology. Such a model would require information about the runoff processes occurring in a catchment and their spatial distribution. Therefore, the aim of this article is (1) to develop a methodology that allows the delineation of dominant runoff processes (DRP) in the field and with a GIS, and (2) to illustrate how such a map can be used in rainfall-runoff modelling. Soil properties were assessed of 44 soil profiles in two Swiss catchments. On some profiles, sprinkling experiments were performed and soil-water levels measured. With these data, the dominant runoff processes (DRP) were determined using the Scherrer and Naef (2003) process decision scheme. At the same time, a simplified method was developed to make it possible to determine the DRP only on the basis of maps of the soil, topography and geology. In 67% of the soil profiles, the two methods indicated the same processes; in 24% with minor deviations. By transforming the simplified method into a set of rules that could be introduced into a GIS, the distributions of the different DRPs in two catchments could be delineated automatically so that maps of the dominant runoff processes could be produced. These maps agreed well with manually derived maps and field observations. Flood-runoff volumes could be quite accurately predicted on the basis of the rainfall measured and information on the water retention capacity contained in the DRP map. This illustrates the potential of the DRP maps for defining the infiltration parameters used in rainfall-runoff models.

Uncertainty, sensitivity analysis and the role of data based mechanistic modeling in hydrology.

Abstract: . In this paper, we discuss a joint approach to calibration and uncertainty estimation for hydrologic systems that combines a top-down, data-based mechanistic (DBM) modelling methodology; and a bottom-up, reductionist modelling methodology. The combined approach is applied to the modelling of the River Hodder catchment in North-West England. The top-down DBM model provides a well identified, statistically sound yet physically meaningful description of the rainfall-flow data, revealing important characteristics of the catchment-scale response, such as the nature of the effective rainfall nonlinearity and the partitioning of the effective rainfall into different flow pathways. These characteristics are defined inductively from the data without prior assumptions about the model structure, other than it is within the generic class of nonlinear differential-delay equations. The bottom-up modelling is developed using the TOPMODEL, whose structure is assumed a priori and is evaluated by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in order to specify the most sensitive and important parameters. The subsequent exercises in calibration and validation, performed with Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), are carried out in the light of the GSA and DBM analyses. This allows for the pre-calibration of the the priors used for GLUE, in order to eliminate dynamical features of the TOPMODEL that have little effect on the model output and would be rejected at the structure identification phase of the DBM modelling analysis. In this way, the elements of meaningful subjectivity in the GLUE approach, which allow the modeler to interact in the modelling process by constraining the model to have a specific form prior to calibration, are combined with other more objective, data-based benchmarks for the final uncertainty estimation. GSA plays a major role in building a bridge between the hypothetico-deductive (bottom-up) and inductive (top-down) approaches and helps to improve the calibration of mechanistic hydrological models, making their properties more transparent. It also helps to highlight possible mis-specification problems, if these are identified. The results of the exercise show that the two modelling methodologies have good synergy; combining well to produce a complete joint modelling approach that has the kinds of checks-and-balances required in practical data-based modelling of rainfall-flow systems. Such a combined approach also produces models that are suitable for different kinds of application. As such, the DBM model considered in the paper is developed specifically as a vehicle for flow and flood forecasting (although the generality of DBM modelling means that a simulation version of the model could be developed if required); while TOPMODEL, suitably calibrated (and perhaps modified) in the light of the DBM and GSA results, immediately provides a simulation model with a variety of potential applications, in areas such as catchment management and planning.

Hydrologic effects of land and water management in North America and Asia: 1700–1992

Abstract: . The hydrologic effects of land use changes, dams, and irrigation in North America and Asia over the past 300 years are studied using a macroscale hydrologic model. The simulation results indicate that the expansion of croplands over the last three centuries has resulted in 2.5 and 6 percent increases in annual runoff volumes for North America and Asia, respectively, and that these increases in runoff to some extent have been compensated by increased evapotranspiration caused by irrigation practices. Averaged over the year and the continental scale, the accumulated anthropogenic impacts on surface water fluxes are hence relatively minor. However, for some regions within the continents human activities have altered hydrologic regimes profoundly. Reservoir operations and irrigation practices in the western part of USA and Mexico have resulted in a 25 percent decrease in runoff in June, and a 9 percent decrease in annual runoff volumes reaching the Pacific Ocean. In the area in South East Asia draining to the Pacific Ocean, land use changes have caused an increase in runoff volumes throughout the year, and the average annual increase in runoff is 12 percent.

Salt intrusion in multi-channel estuaries: a case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Abstract: . There is a well-tested theory for the computation of salt intrusion in alluvial estuaries that is fully analytical and predictive. The theory uses analytical equations to predict the mixing behaviour of the estuary based on measurable quantities, such as channel topography, river discharge and tidal characteristics. It applies to single-channel topographies and estuaries that demonstrate moderate tidal damping. The Mekong delta is a multi-channel estuary where the tide is damped due to a relatively strong river discharge (in the order of 2000 m3/s), even during the dry season. As a result the Mekong is a strongly riverine estuary. This paper aims to test if the theory can be applied to such a riverine multi-channel estuary, and to see if possible adjustments or generalisations need to be made. The paper presents salt intrusion measurements that were done by moving boat in 2005, to which the salt intrusion model was calibrated. The theory has been expanded to cater for tidal damping. Subsequently the model has been validated with observations made at fixed locations over the years 1998 and 1999. Finally it has been tested whether the Mekong calibration fits the overall predictive equations derived in other estuaries. The test has been successful and led to a slight adjustment of the predictive equation to cater for estuaries that experience a sloping bottom.

Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin – the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation?

Abstract: . Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a current challenge in hydrological science. A daily discharge record (1911–2000) of the river Meuse (21 000 km2; Western Europe) has been simulated with a semi-distributed conceptual model (HBV). The model has been calibrated and validated with a data set for the period 1968–1998. In this study the performance of the model for the period prior to 1968 has been analysed. The observed and simulated discharge records are compared in terms of annual average discharge, summer and winter average discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual maximum 10-day average discharge. The results are discussed with reference to land use change (i.e. forest type change) and shortcomings of the available precipitation and discharge records. The general agreement between the observed and simulated discharge records is good (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: 0.89–0.93), in particular flood volumes and the highest flood peaks are simulated well but the model has problems with the medium floods (shape and peak value). However, there are some systematic deviations between the observed and simulated discharges during specific periods. The simulation result could somewhat be improved by taking the historical land use into consideration. But the systematic overestimation of the discharge for the period 1933–1968 could not be attributed to observed changes in land use. It is concluded that the overall impact of land use changes in the Meuse basin is too small to be detected given the uncertainties in the available records.

Estimating spatial mean root-zone soil moisture from point-scale observations

Abstract: Root zone soil moisture is a key variable in many land surface hydrology models. Often, however, there is a mismatch in the spatial scales at which models simulate soil moisture and at which soil moisture is observed. This complicates model validation. The increased availability of detailed datasets on space-time variability of root-zone soil moisture allows for a posteriori analysis of the uncertainties in the relation between point-scale observations and the spatial mean. In this paper we analyze three comprehensive datasets from three different regions. We identify different strategies to select observation sites. For instance, sites can be located randomly or according to the rank stability concept. For each strategy, we present methods to quantify the uncertainty that is associated with this strategy. In general there is a large correspondence between the different datasets with respect to the relative uncertainties for the different strategies. For all datasets, the uncertainty can be strongly reduced if some information is available that relates soil moisture content at that site to the spatial mean. However this works best if the space-time dynamics of the soil moisture field are known. Selection of the site closest to the spatial mean on a single random date only leads to minor reduction of the uncertainty with respect to the spatial mean over seasonal timescales. Since soil moisture variability is the result of a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, and landscape characteristics, the soil moisture field will be correlated with some of these characteristics. Using available information, we show that the correlation with leaf area index or a wetness coefficient alone is insufficient to predict if a site is representative for the spatial mean soil moisture content.

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction

Abstract: . Advances in mesoscale numerical weather predication make it possible to provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possible to incorporate high-resolution NWPs directly into flood forecasting systems in order to obtain an extended lead time. It is recognised, however, that direct application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable uncertainty to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be magnified by the scaling process. As the ensemble weather forecast has become operationally available, it is of particular interest to the hydrologist to investigate both the potential and implication of ensemble rainfall inputs to the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we employ a distributed hydrological model to analyse the performance of the ensemble flow forecasts based on the ensemble rainfall inputs from a short-range high-resolution mesoscale weather model. The results show that: (1) The hydrological model driven by QPF can produce forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) The ensemble hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself; and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematic biases are sometimes significant and, as such, extra effort needs to be made to improve the quality of such a system.