Showing papers in "Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences in 2010"

Toward a Physically Based Gravity Wave Source Parameterization in a General Circulation Model

Abstract: Middle atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) must employ a parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). Such parameterizations typically make very simple assumptions about gravity wave sources, such as uniform distribution in space and time or an arbitrarily specified GW source function. The authors present a configuration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that replaces the arbitrarily specified GW source spectrum with GW source parameterizations. For the nonorographic wave sources, a frontal system and convective GW source parameterization are used. These parameterizations link GW generation to tropospheric quantities calculated by the GCM and provide a model-consistent GW representation. With the new GW source parameterization, a reasonable middle atmospheric circulation can be obtained and the middle atmospheric circulation is better in several respects than that generated by a typical GW source specification. In particular, the interannual NH stratospher...

Simulated Electrification of a Small Thunderstorm with Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics

Abstract: Electrification and lightning are simulated for a small continental multicell storm. The results are consistent with observations and thus provide additional understanding of the charging processes and evolution of this storm. The first six observed lightning flashes were all negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes, after which intracloud (IC) flashes also occurred between middle and upper levels of the storm. The model simulation reproduces the basic evolution of lightning from low and middle levels to upper levels. The observed lightning indicated an initial charge structure of at least an inverted dipole (negative charge above positive). The simulations show that noninductive charge separation higher in the storm can enhance the main negative charge sufficiently to produce negative CG flashes before upper-level IC flashes commence. The result is a “bottom-heavy” tripole charge structure with midlevel negative charge and a lower positive charge region that is more significant than the upper posit...

A Classical-Theory-Based Parameterization of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Mineral Dust, Soot, and Biological Particles in a Global Climate Model

Abstract: An ice nucleation parameterization based on classical nucleation theory, with aerosol-specific parameters derived from experiments, has been implemented into a global climate model—the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)-Oslo. The parameterization treats immersion, contact, and deposition nucleation by mineral dust, soot, bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen in mixed-phase clouds at temperatures between 08 and 2388C. Immersion freezing is considered for insoluble particles that are activated to cloud droplets, and deposition and contact nucleation are only allowed for uncoated, unactivated aerosols. Immersion freezing by mineral dust is found to be the dominant ice formation process, followed by immersion and contact freezing by soot. The simulated biological aerosol contribution to global atmospheric ice formation is marginal, even with high estimates of their ice nucleation activity, because the number concentration of ice nucleation active biological particles in the atmosphere is low compared to other ice nucleating aerosols. Because of the dominance of mineral dust, the simulated ice nuclei concentrations at temperatures below 2208C are found to correlate with coarse-mode aerosol particle concentrations. The ice nuclei (IN) concentrations in the model agree well overall with in situ continuous flow diffusion chamber measurements. At individual locations, the model exhibits a stronger temperature dependence on IN concentrations than what is observed. The simulated IN composition (77% mineral dust, 23% soot, and 10 25 % biological particles) lies in the range of observed ice nuclei and ice crystal residue compositions.

Midlevel Ventilation's Constraint on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Abstract: Midlevel ventilation, or the flux of low-entropy air into the inner core of a tropical cyclone (TC), is a hypothesized mechanism by which environmental vertical wind shear can constrain a tropical cyclone’s intensity. An idealized framework based on steadiness, axisymmetry, and slantwise neutrality is developed to assess how ventilation affects tropical cyclone intensity via two possible pathways: the first through downdrafts outside the eyewall and the second through eddy fluxes directly into the eyewall. For both pathways, ventilation has a detrimental effect on tropical cyclone intensity by decreasing the maximum steady-state intensity significantly below the potential intensity, imposing a minimum intensity below which a TC will unconditionally decay, and providing an upper-ventilation bound beyond which no steady tropical cyclone can exist. Ventilation also decreases the thermodynamic efficiency as the eyewall becomes less buoyant relative to the environment, which compounds the effects of v...

Convective-Scale Structure and Evolution during a High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Abstract: The role of convective-scale processes in a 1.67-km mesoscale model simulation of the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricane Dennis (2005) is presented. The structure and evolution of inner-core precipitating areas during RI, the statistical properties of precipitation during times experiencing vigorous convection (termed convective bursts here) and how they differ from nonburst times, possible differences in convective bursts associated with RI and those not associated with RI, and the impacts of precipitation morphology on the vortex-scale structure and evolution during RI are all examined. The onset of RI is linked to an increase in the areal extent of convective precipitation in the inner core, while the inner-core stratiform precipitating area remains unchanged and the intensity increases only after RI has begun. RI is not tied to a dramatic increase in the number of convective bursts nor in the characteristics of the bursts, such as burst intensity. Rather, the immediate cause of RI is a s...

A Conceptual View on Inertial Oscillations and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets

Abstract: In the present work Blackadar’s concept of nocturnal inertial oscillations is extended. Blackadar’s concept describes frictionless inertial oscillations above the nocturnal inversion layer. The current work includes frictional effects within the nocturnal boundary layer. It is shown that the nocturnal wind speed profile describes an oscillation around the nocturnal equilibrium wind vector, rather than around the geostrophic wind vector (as in the Blackadar case). By using this perspective, continuous time-dependent wind profiles are predicted. As such, information on both the height and the magnitude of the nocturnal low-level jet is available as a function of time. Preliminary analysis shows that the proposed extension performs well in comparison with observations when a simple Ekman model is used to represent the equilibrium state in combination with a realistic initial velocity profile. In addition to jet dynamics, backward inertial oscillations are predicted at lower levels close to the surface, which also appear to be present in observations. The backward oscillation forms an important mechanism behind weakening low-level winds during the afternoon transition. Both observational and theoretical modeling studies are needed to explore this phenomenon further.

Advances in the Estimation of Ice Particle Fall Speeds Using Laboratory and Field Measurements

Abstract: Accurate estimates for the fall speed of natural hydrometeors are vital if their evolution in clouds is to be understood quantitatively. In this study, laboratory measurements of the terminal velocity yt for a variety of ice particle models settling in viscous fluids, along with wind-tunnel and field measurements of ice particles settling in air, have been analyzed and compared to common methods of computing yt fromthe literature.It is observed that while these methods work well for a number of particle types, they fail for particles with open geometries, specifically those particles for which the area ratio Ar is small (Ar is defined as the area of the particleprojectednormaltotheflow dividedbytheareaofacircumscribing disc).Inparticular, thefallspeeds of stellar and dendritic crystals, needles, open bullet rosettes, and low-density aggregates are all overestimated. These particle types are important in many cloud types: aggregates in particular often dominate snow precipitation at the ground and vertically pointing Doppler radar measurements. Based on the laboratory data, a simple modification to previous computational methods is proposed, based on the area ratio. This new method collapses the available drag data onto an approximately universal curve, and the resulting errors in the computed fall speeds relative to the tank data are less than 25% in all cases. Comparison with the (much more scattered) measurements of ice particles falling in air show strong support for this new method, with the area ratio bias apparently eliminated.

Mechanisms Affecting the Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection over Land: Inferences from Observations of the Diurnal Cycle Collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Abstract: Summertime observations for 11 yr from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to investigate mechanisms controlling the transition from shallow to deep convection over land. It is found that a more humid environment immediately above the boundary layer is present before the start of late afternoon heavy precipitation events. The higher moisture content is brought by wind from the south. Greater boundary layer inhomogeneity in moist static energy, temperature, moisture, and horizontal wind before precipitation begins is correlated to larger rain rates at the initial stage of precipitation. In an examination of afternoon rain statistics, higher relative humidity above the boundary layer is correlated to an earlier onset and longer duration of afternoon precipitation events, whereas greater boundary layer inhomogeneity and atmospheric instability in the 2–4-km layer above the surface are positively correlated to the total rain ...

A Direct Measure of Entrainment

Abstract: A method is introduced for directly measuring convective entrainment and detrainment in a cloudresolving simulation. This technique is used to quantify the errors in the entrainment and detrainment estimates obtained using the standard bulk-plume method. The bulk-plume method diagnoses these rates from the convective flux of some conserved tracer, such as total water in nonprecipitating convection. By not accounting for the variability of this tracer in clouds and in the environment, it is argued that the bulk-plume equations systematically underestimate entrainment. Using tracers with different vertical profiles, it is also shown that the bulk-plume estimates are tracer dependent and, in some cases, unphysical. The new directmeasurement technique diagnoses entrainment and detrainment at the gridcell level without any recourse to conservedtracers.Usingthismethodinlarge-eddysimulationsofshallowanddeepconvection,itisfoundthat the bulk-plume method underestimates entrainment by roughly a factor of 2. The directly measured entrainment rates are then compared to cloud height and cloud buoyancy. Contrary to existing theories, fractional entrainment is not found to scale like the inverse of height, the cloud buoyancy, or the gradientof cloud buoyancy. On the other hand, fractional detrainment is found to scale linearly with cloud buoyancy. Finally, direct measurement is used to diagnose the spatial distribution of entrainment and detrainment during the evolution of an individual deep cumulonimbus.

Multiscale Observations of Hurricane Dennis (2005): The Effects of Hot Towers on Rapid Intensification

Abstract: A synthesis of remote sensing and in situ observations throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Dennis (2005) during the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment is presented Measurements from the ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), airborne radiometer, and flight-level instruments are used to provide a multiscale examination of the storm The main focus is an episode of deep convective bursts (“hot towers”) occurring during a mature stage of the storm and preceding a period of rapid intensification (11-hPa pressure drop in 1 h 35 min) The vigorous hot towers penetrated to 16-km height, had maximum updrafts of 20 m s−1 at 12–14-km height, and possessed a strong transverse circulation through the core of the convection Significant downdrafts (maximum of 10–12 m s−1) on the flanks of the updrafts were observed, with their cumulative effects hypothesized to result in the observed increases in the warm core In one ER-2 overpass, subsidence was

Characteristics of Deep Tropical and Subtropical Convection from Nadir-Viewing High-Altitude Airborne Doppler Radar

Abstract: This paper presents observations of deep convection characteristics in the tropics and subtropics that have been classified into four categories: tropical cyclone, oceanic, land, and sea breeze. Vertical velocities in the convection were derived from Doppler radar measurements collected during several NASA field experiments from the nadir-viewing high-altitude ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP). Emphasis is placed on the vertical structure of the convection from the surface to cloud top (sometimes reaching 18-km altitude). This unique look at convection is not possible from other approaches such as ground-based or lower-altitude airborne scanning radars. The vertical motions from the radar measurements are derived using new relationships between radar reflectivity and hydrometeor fall speed. Various convective properties, such as the peak updraft and downdraft velocities and their corresponding altitude, heights of reflectivity levels, and widths of reflectivity cores, are estimated. The most significant findings are the following: 1) strong updrafts that mostly exceed 15 m/s, with a few exceeding 30 m/s, are found in all the deep convection cases, whether over land or ocean; 2) peak updrafts were almost always above the 10-km level and, in the case of tropical cyclones, were closer to the 12-km level; and 3) land-based and sea-breeze convection had higher reflectivities and wider convective cores than oceanic and tropical cyclone convection. In addition, the high-resolution EDOP data were used to examine the connection between reflectivity and vertical velocity, for which only weak linear relationships were found. The results are discussed in terms of dynamical and microphysical implications for numerical models and future remote sensors.

Do Undiluted Convective Plumes Exist in the Upper Tropical Troposphere

Abstract: Using a passive tracer, entrainment is studied in cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection in radiative‐convective equilibrium. It is found that the convective flux of undiluted parcels decays with height exponentially, indicating a constant probability per vertical distance of mixing with environmental air. This probability per distance is sufficiently large that undiluted updrafts are negligible above a height of 4‐5 km and virtually absent above 10 km. These results are shown to be independent of the horizontal grid size within the range of 3.2 km to 100 m. Plumes that do reach the tropopause are found to be highly diluted. An equivalent potential temperature is defined that is exactly conserved for all reversible adiabatic transformations, including those with ice. Using this conserved variable, it is shown that the latent heat of fusion (from both freezing and deposition) causes only a small increase in the level of neutral buoyancy near the tropopause. In fact, when taken to sufficiently low pressures, a parcel with an ice phase ends up colder than it would without an ice phase. Nevertheless, the contribution from fusion to a parcel’s kinetic energy is quite large. Using an ensemble of tracers, information is encoded in parcels at the cloud base and decoded where the parcel is observed in the free troposphere. Using this technique, clouds at the tropopause are diagnosed for their cloud-base temperature, specific humidity, and vertical velocity. Using these as the initial values for a Lagrangian parcel model, it is shown that fusion provides the kinetic energy required for diluted parcels to reach the tropopause.

Dynamical Mechanism for the Increase in Tropical Upwelling in the Lowermost Tropical Stratosphere during Warm ENSO Events

Abstract: The Brewer-Dobson circulation strengthens in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Dynamical analyses using the most recent version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model show that this is due mainly to anomalous forcing by orographic gravity waves, which maximizes in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics between 18 and 22 km, especially during the strongest warm ENSO episodes. Anomalies in the meridional gradient of temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are produced during warm ENSO events, accompanied by anomalies in the location and intensity of the subtropical jets. This anomalous wind pattern alters the propagation and dissipation of the parameterized gravity waves, which ultimately force increases in tropical upwelling in the lowermost stratosphere. During cold ENSO events a similar signal, but of opposite sign, is present in the model simulations. The signals in ozone and water vapor produced by ENSO events in the UTLS are also investigated.

Aerosol Effects on Intensity of Landfalling Hurricanes as Seen from Simulations with the WRF Model with Spectral Bin Microphysics

Abstract: The evolution of a superhurricane (Katrina, August 2005) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF; version 31) with explicit (nonparameterized) spectral bin microphysics (SBM) The new computationally efficient spectral bin microphysical scheme (FAST-SBM) implemented to the WRF calculates at each time step and in each grid point the size distributions of atmospheric aerosols, water drops, cloud ice (ice crystals and aggregates), and graupel/hail The tropical cyclone (TC) evolution was simulated during 72 h, beginning with its bypassing the Florida coast (27 August 2005) to its landfall just east of New Orleans, Louisiana (near the end of 29 August) The WRF/SBM was used to investigate the potential impact of aerosols ingested into Katrina’s circulation during its passage through the Gulf of Mexico on Katrina’s structure and intensity It is shown that continental aerosols invigorated convection largely at TC periphery, which led to its weakening prior to landfall Max

Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia

Abstract: Using a high-resolution regional climate model—the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3)—and station and satellite observations, the authors have studied the spatial heterogeneity of climate variability over Java Island, Indonesia. Besides the well-known anomalous dry conditions that characterize the dry and transition seasons during an El Nino year, analysis of regional model output reveals a wet mountainous south versus dry northern plains in precipitation anomalies associated with El Nino over Java during the peak rainy season. Modeling experiments indicate that this mountains/plains contrast is caused by the interaction of the El Nino–induced monsoonal wind anomalies and the island/mountain-induced local diurnal cycle of winds and precipitation. During the wet season of El Nino years, anomalous southeasterly winds over the Indonesian region oppose the climatological northwesterly monsoon, thus reducing the strength of the monsoon wi...

A Cumulus Parameterization with State-Dependent Entrainment Rate. Part I: Description and Sensitivity to Temperature and Humidity Profiles

Abstract: A new cumulus parameterization is developed for which an entraining plume model is adopted. The lateral entrainment rate varies vertically depending on the surrounding environment. Two different formulations are examined for the rate. The cumulus ensemble is spectrally represented according to the updraft velocity at cloud base. Cloud-base mass flux is determined with prognostic convective kinetic energy closure. The entrainment rate tends to be large near cloud base because of the small updraft velocity near that level. Deep convection tends to be suppressed when convective available potential energy is small because of upward reduction of in-cloud moist static energy. Dry environmental air significantly reduces in-cloud humidity mainly because of the large entrainment rate in the lower troposphere, which leads to suppression of deep convection, consistent with observations and previous results of cloud-resolving models. The change in entrainment rate has the potential to influence cumulus conve...

The Roles of Equatorial Trapped Waves and Internal Inertia–Gravity Waves in Driving the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Part I: Zonal Mean Wave Forcing

Abstract: The roles of equatorial trapped waves (EQWs) and internal inertia–gravity waves in driving the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are investigated using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with T213L256 resolution (60-km horizontal and 300-m vertical resolution) integrated for three years. The model, which does not use a gravity wave drag parameterization, simulates a QBO. Although the simulated QBO has a shorter period than that of the real atmosphere, its amplitudes and structure in the lower stratosphere are fairly realistic. The zonal wavenumber/frequency spectra of simulated outgoing longwave radiation represent realistic signals of convectively coupled EQWs. Clear signals of EQWs are also seen in the stratospheric wind components. In the eastward wind shear of the QBO, eastward EQWs including Kelvin waves contribute up to ∼25%–50% to the driving of the QBO. The peaks of eastward wave forcing associated with EQWs and internal inertia–gravity waves occur at nearly the same t...

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Size and Intensity to the Radial Distribution of Surface Entropy Flux

Abstract: The surface energy (entropy) flux is critical to the development and maintenance of a tropical cyclone (TC). However, it is unclear how sensitive the inner-core size and intensity of a TC could be to the radial distribution of the surface entropy flux under the TC. Such a potential sensitivity is examined in this study using the multiply nested, fully compressible, nonhydrostatic TC model TCM4. By artificially eliminating the surface entropy fluxes in different radial extent in different experiments, the effect of the surface entropy flux in the different radial ranges on the inner-core size and intensity of a simulated TC is evaluated. Consistent with recent findings from axisymmetric models, the entropy flux in the eye region of a TC is found to contribute little to the storm intensity, but it plays a role in reducing the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Although surface entropy fluxes under the eyewall contribute greatly to the storm intensity, those outside the eyewall up to a radius of about 2–...

Microwave Backscatter and Extinction by Soft Ice Spheres and Complex Snow Aggregates

Abstract: Coupled-dipole approximation (CDA) calculations of microwave extinction and radar backscatter are presented for nonhomogeneous (soft) ice spheres and for quasi-realistic aggregates of elementary ice crystal forms, including both simple needles and real dendrites. Frequencies considered include selections from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR; 13.4 and 35.6 GHz) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI; 18.7, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz), both slated for orbit on the GPM mission. The computational method is first validated against Mie theory using dipole structures representing solid ice spheres as well as stochastically generated “soft” ice spheres of variable ice–air ratio. Neither the traditional Bruggeman nor Maxwell Garnett dielectric mixing formula is found to correctly predict the full range of CDA results for soft spheres. However, an excellent fit is found using the generalized mixing rule of Sihvola with ν = 0.85. The suitability of the soft-sphere approxima...

A Density Current Parameterization Coupled with Emanuel’s Convection Scheme. Part I: The Models

Abstract: The aim of the present series of papers is to develop a density current parameterization for global circulation models. This first paper is devoted to the presentation of this new wake parameterization coupled with Emanuel’s convective scheme. The model represents a population of identical circular cold pools (the wakes) with vertical frontiers. The wakes are cooled by the precipitating downdrafts while the outside area is warmed by the subsidence induced by the saturated drafts. The budget equations for mass, energy, and water yield evolution equations for the prognostic variables (the vertical profiles of the temperature and humidity differences between the wakes and their exterior). They also provide additional terms for the equations of the mean variables. The driving terms of the wake equations are the differential heating and drying due to convective drafts. The action of the convection on the wakes is implemented by splitting the convective tendency and attributing the effect of the precip...

A Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in January 2009

Abstract: The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event of January 2009 is analyzed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS). This SSW event is characterized by the extraordinary predominance of the planetary-scale wave of zonal wavenumber 2 (wave 2). The total amount of the upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux for wave 2 was the strongest since the winter of 1978/79. It is found that the remarkable development of the upper troposphere ridge over Alaska played important roles in the SSW in January 2009. During the first development stage, the ridge excited wave packets upward as well as eastward over around Alaska. The eastward-propagating packets intensified a trough over eastern Siberia, which led to the development of the planetary wave over eastern Siberia during the second development stage. The results of this study indicate that the pronounced wave-2 pattern observed in the stratosphere was brought about by accumulative effects of rather localized propagati...

Patterns of Wintertime Jet Stream Variability and Their Relation to the Storm Tracks

Abstract: A new approach is put forward for defining extratropical teleconnection patterns. The zonal wind field at 250 hPa is analyzed separately in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean sectors during the winter season (December–March). Teleconnectivity of this field is found to be particularly strong. EOF analysis of the zonal wind field yields patterns that (i) are robust with respect to the range of frequencies included in the data, (ii) relate clearly to the position of the climatological-mean jets, and (iii) are broadly consistent with their traditionally defined counterparts in terms of climatic impacts. The patterns are characterized by a north–south shifting or an extension/retraction of the eddy-driven jet in its exit region and similar changes at the entrance region of the subtropical jet. The patterns also reflect the degree of separation between the subtropical and eddy-driven jets. Atlantic EOFs 1 and 2 are counterparts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eastern Atlantic patter...

Improved Representation of Ice Particle Masses Based on Observations in Natural Clouds

Abstract: The mass–dimensional relationship put forth by Brown and Francis has been widely used for developing parameterizations for representing ice cloud microphysical properties. This relationship forms the cornerstone for past and forthcoming retrievals of ice cloud properties from ground-based and spaceborne active and passive sensors but has yet to be rigorously evaluated. This study uses data from six field campaigns to evaluate this mass–dimensional relationship in a variety of ice cloud types and temperatures and to account for the deviations observed with temperature and size, based on properties of the ice particle ensembles. Although the Brown and Francis relationship provides a good match to the observations in a mean sense, it fails to capture dependences on temperature and particle size that are a result of the complex microphysical processes operative within most ice cloud layers. Mass–dimensional relationships that provide a better fit to the observations are developed.

Modeling Aerosol Impacts on Convective Storms in Different Environments

Abstract: Aerosols are known to have both direct and indirect effects on clouds through their role as cloud condensation nuclei. This study examines the effects of differing aerosol concentrations on convective storms developing under different environments. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloudresolving model with sophisticated microphysical and aerosol parameterization schemes, was used to achieve the goals of this study. A sounding that would produce deep convection was chosen and consistently modified to obtain a variety of CAPE values. Additionally, the model was initiated with varying concentrations of aerosols that were available to act as cloud condensation nuclei. Each model run produced long-lived convective storms with similar storm development, but they differed slightly based on the initial conditions. Runs with higher initial CAPE values produced the strongest storms overall, with stronger updrafts and larger amounts of accumulated surface precipitation. Simulations initiated with larger concentrations of aerosols developed similar storm structures but showed some distinctive dynamical and microphysical changes because of aerosol indirect effects. Many of the changes seen because of varying aerosol concentrations were of either the same order or larger magnitude than those brought about by changing the convective environment.

Uncertainties in Microwave Properties of Frozen Precipitation: Implications for Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation

Abstract: A combined active/passive modeling system that converts CloudSat observations to simulated microwave brightness temperatures (TB) is used to assess different ice particle models under precipitating conditions. Simulationresultsindicatethatcertainicemodels(e.g.,low-densityspheres)produceexcessivescatteringand implausibly low simulated TBs for stratiform precipitation events owing to excessive derived ice water paths (IWPs), while other ice models produce unphysical TB depressions due to the combined effects of elevated derived IWP and excessive particle size distribution‐averaged extinction. An ensemble of nonspherical ice particle models, however, consistently produces realistic results under most circumstances and adequately captures the radiative properties of frozen hydrometeors associated with precipitation—with the possible exception of very high IWP events. Large derived IWP uncertainties exceeding 60% are also noted and may indicateIWP retrieval accuracy deficiencies using high-frequency passive microwave observations. Simulated TB uncertainties due to the ice particle model ensemble members approach 9 (5) K at 89 (157) GHz for high ice water path conditions associated with snowfall and ;2‐3 (;1‐2) K under typical stratiform rain conditions. These uncertainties, however, display considerable variability owing to ice water path, precipitation type, satellite zenith angle, and frequency. Comparisons between 157-GHz simulations and observations under precipitating conditions produce low biases (,1.5 K) and high correlations, but lower-frequency channels display consistent negative biases of 3‐4 K in precipitating regions. Sample error correlations and covariance matrices for select microwave frequencies also show strong functional relationships with ice water path and variability depending on precipitation type.

Temporal Relations of Column Water Vapor and Tropical Precipitation

Abstract: Empirical studies using satellite data and radiosondes have shown that precipitation increases with column water vapor (CWV) in the tropics, and that this increase is much steeper above some critical CWV value. Here, eight years of 1-min-resolution microwave radiometer and optical gauge data at Nauru Island are analyzed to better understand the relationships among CWV, column liquid water (CLW), and precipitation at small time scales. CWV is found to have large autocorrelation times compared with CLW and precipitation. Before precipitation events, CWV increases on both a synoptic-scale time period and a subsequent shorter time period consistent with mesoscale convective activity; the latter period is associated with the highest CWV levels. Probabilities of precipitation increase greatly with CWV. Given initial high CWV, this increased probability of precipitation persists at least 10–12 h. Even in periods of high CWV, however, probabilities of initial precipitation in a 5-min period remain low en...

Mechanisms of Jet Formation on the Giant Planets

Abstract: The giant planet atmospheres exhibit alternating prograde (eastward) and retrograde (westward) jets of different speeds and widths, with an equatorial jet that is prograde on Jupiter and Saturn and retrograde on Uranus and Neptune. The jets are variouslythought to be drivenby differential radiativeheating of the upper atmosphere or by intrinsic heat fluxes emanating from the deep interior. However, existing models cannot account for the different flow configurations on the giant planets in an energetically consistent manner. Here a three-dimensional general circulation model is used to show that the different flow configurations can be reproduced by mechanisms universal across the giant planets if differences in their radiative heating and intrinsic heat fluxes are taken into account. Whether the equatorial jet is prograde or retrograde depends on whether the deep intrinsic heat fluxes are strong enough that convection penetrates into the upper troposphere and generates strong equatorial Rossby waves there. Prograde equatorial jets result if convective Rossby wave generation is strong and low-latitude angular momentum flux divergence owing to baroclinic eddies generated off the equator is sufficiently weak (Jupiter and Saturn). Retrograde equatorial jets result if eitherconvectiveRossbywave generationis weakor absent(Uranus) orlow-latitudeangularmomentumflux divergence owing to baroclinic eddies is sufficiently strong (Neptune). The different speeds and widths of the off-equatorial jets depend, among other factors, on the differential radiative heating of the atmosphere and the altitude of the jets, which are vertically sheared. The simulations have closed energy and angular momentum balances thatareconsistentwithobservations ofthegiantplanets. Theyexhibit temperaturestructures closely resembling those observed and make predictions about as yet unobserved aspects of flow and temperature structures.

Genesis of Pre–Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

Abstract: The formation of pre–Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgome...

The Position of the Midlatitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs

Abstract: The sensitivity of the midlatitude storm track and eddy-driven wind to the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary forcing is studied over a wide range of perturbations using both simple and comprehensive general circulation models over aquaplanet lower boundary conditions. Under the single-jet circulation regime similar to the conditions of the present climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter or the Southern Hemisphere summer, the eddy-driven jet shifts monotonically poleward with both the global mean and the equator-to-pole gradient of the SST. The eddy-driven jet can have a reverse relationship to the gradient if it is well separated from the subtropical jet and Hadley cell boundary in a double-jet circulation regime. A simple scaling is put forward to interpret the simulated sensitivity of the storm-track/eddy-driven westerly wind position within the single-jet regime in both models. The rationale for the scaling is based on the notion that the wave activity flux can propagate horizontally aw...

Droplet Growth in Warm Water Clouds Observed by the A-Train. Part II: A Multisensor View

Abstract: Hydrometeor droplet growth processes are inferred from a combination of Aqua/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud particle size observations and CloudSat/Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) observations of warm water clouds. This study supports the inferences of a related paper (Part I) (i) that MODIS-retrieved cloud droplet radii (CDR) from the 3.7-μm channel (R37) are influenced by the existence of small droplets at cloud top and (ii) that the CDR obtained from 1.6- (R16) and 2.1-μm (R21) channels contain information about drizzle droplets deeper into the cloud as well as cloud droplets. This interpretation is shown to be consistent with radar reflectivities when matched to CDR that were retrieved from MODIS data. This study demonstrates that the droplet growth process from cloud to rain via drizzle proceeds monotonically with the evolution of R16 or R21 from small cloud drops (on the order of 10–12 μm) to drizzle (CDR greater than 14 μm) to rain (CDR greater than 20 μm). Thus, R...