Estimating the Distribution of the Incubation Periods of Human Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections
Victor Virlogeux,Ming Li,Tim K. Tsang,Luzhao Feng,Vicky J. Fang,Hui Jiang,Peng Wu,Jiandong Zheng,Eric H. Y. Lau,Yu Cao,Ying Qin,Qiaohong Liao,Hongjie Yu,Benjamin J. Cowling +13 more
TLDR
This study estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A( H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7n9) infection from mainland China using a nonparametric model and several parametric models fitted to the data.Abstract:
A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate.read more
Citations
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Human infection with avian influenza a (h7n9) virus
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Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia.
Victor Virlogeux,Victor Virlogeux,Victor Virlogeux,Vicky J. Fang,Minah Park,Joseph T. Wu,Benjamin J. Cowling +6 more
TL;DR: Variation in the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.
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Lactate dehydrogenase and susceptibility to deterioration of mild COVID-19 patients: a multicenter nested case-control study.
Jichan Shi,Yang Li,Xian Zhou,Qiran Zhang,Xinchun Ye,Zhengxing Wu,Xiangao Jiang,Hongying Yu,Lingyun Shao,Jing Wen Ai,Haocheng Zhang,Bin Xu,Feng Sun,Wenhong Zhang +13 more
TL;DR: Advanced age and high LDH level are independent risk factors for exacerbation in mild COVID-19 patients, and among the mild patients, clinicians should pay more attention to the elderly patients or those with highLDH levels.
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The incubation period during the pandemic of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the incubation period of COVID-19 and showed that it is prudent not to dismiss the possibility of incubation periods up to 14 days at this stage of the epidemic.
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